Death to Google Ads! Texans Talk Tip Jar! 🍺😎👍
Thanks for your support!

First Round Trade

At first I hated it, but it's cool. Love this for vikings as a an NFL fan. They got move up with chargers written all over them.

A first round reach for texans to a best available second round pick will be nice.
 
So, the savings on this year's cap opens up room for one more FA that wouldn't have been possible otherwise?
I'm not following as closely as some of you, so correct me if I'm wrong, but there are still a number of good safeties available and that's what I'm hoping for
Yes, last time I looked there were a couple of good CBs and Ss, but they would have eaten up our available cap.
 
This is a chess move right here. This class is loaded with players at positions we can use, and this helps set us up for when Stroud and Anderson get PAID. Wouldn't surprise me if they considered doing it again next year. They will have to get creative on balancing the salary cap and retaining our top-tier players.
 
This is a post I made in the What the Mocks are telling us thread a week ago.

Only 37 players listed as possible 1st round picks. One catch I see is that Penix and Nix are not listed as 1st rounders in any of these mocks. I believe teams that miss out or pass on a QB in the 1st round, (maybe the Giants, Raiders, Falcons, or Vikings) will trade back into the 1st to get these 2 QBs and the 5th year options. I think there will be some pretty decent players that get out of the 1st round, and trading back into the top third of the 2nd round is a good option.
So the Texans trade back into the top third of the 2nd round. Still good value at WR, CB. OT starts to thin out. LB comes into play. And while I do not think the Texans are targeting a specific player, a name came to me. I was wondering prior to this trade if 1.23 was too early for Braden Fiske. Very unlikely to get to 2.59 after his performance at the Senior Bowl and Combine. 2.42? That's right in the area I think Fiske goes, and would finish off Ryans pass down front 4.
I think we will end up trading back into the first round.
That would make zero sense.
 
Last edited:
”this is not what I would do”

LOL..I guess we should all thank our lucky stars for that, huh? This is Nick Casserio we’re talking about. Does anyone actually think he’s done here?
 
I think we could have gotten much more on draft day as coveted players begin to fall. However, I think Nick sees Will Anderson as this years 1st rounder and there are many good prospects in rounds 2 & 3. I think Nick is cooking something up.
It just seems like all that draft capital from the Watson trade wasn't fully utilized.
 
I have been pretty adamant about wanting a trade down preferably with Cardinals or Washington. This one meets my criteria and I am pretty sure the 42nd and 59th that we now have puts us right between 1.21 and 1.22. Therefore we can trade back almost to where we were . I am just surprised at the move being this early in the offseason. If, Nick decides to go after one or two guys he wants higher in the first round he has even more ammo today. I also think that a move for a veteran player is still on the table if the right deal meets Nick's approval.
 
I don’t get into this draft value mumbo jumbo. What it says to me is that either NC and the FO don’t think there’s a huge difference between the 1st round talent and the 2nd round talent available this year…. or that this draft is so deep in the areas they want to attack that they’ll be fine sliding out of the 1st round b/c they’re confident someone they like is gonna be there at 42….OR that they may have plans to use that extra 2nd to perhaps move up in this year or next year’s draft. either way, I like the idea of picking up an extra high pick next year. Sounds like a plan to me.
 
I'm underwhelmed here. This looks like an okay trade if made on draft day and none of the players we want are left at #23. Clearly the Vikings were pushing to get another 1st to package for a move up for a QB that gives US the leverage here. We should have held out for the Vikings 3rd round pick next year or maybe their 4th/5th this year. This is a 'C' trade at best right now and a solid 'B' on draft day.
 
Last edited:
My main question is how the 'mid 2nd' value is calculated? Future pick values are always considered basically worth about a round less than the same pick this year (2nd in 2025 is equivalent to a 3rd in 2024, etc...). It looks to me like the mid 2nd next year under the Johnson model should thus be valued closer to 170 (value of a mid 3rd THIS year) rather than 370 (which appears to be mid 2nd value THIS year) which would in fact make this a better trade for Minnesota by something like a 4th round pick this year. In the end I don't love it much less doing it so early when we have no idea who is available either for a move up or back as the draft occurs.
 
Last edited:
Now, Houston is out of the first round in 2024 entirely after it sent Cleveland's selection to Minnesota.

Still, some nice draft capital. And you know that Nick isn't sticking with 3 seventh rounders.
RoundOverall
242 (from MIN)
259
386 (from PHI)
4122 (from CLE)
4126
6188
7224 (from ARI)
7238 (from NO)
7247
 
I don’t get into this draft value mumbo jumbo. What it says to me is that either NC and the FO don’t think there’s a huge difference between the 1st round talent and the 2nd round talent available this year…. or that this draft is so deep in the areas they want to attack that they’ll be fine sliding out of the 1st round b/c they’re confident someone they like is gonna be there at 42….OR that they may have plans to use that extra 2nd to perhaps move up in this year or next year’s draft. either way, I like the idea of picking up an extra high pick next year. Sounds like a plan to me.
That's because we're not in desperation mode. Nick got us the core players these past couple of years and all that is left to do is build around them. I believe we will get most of the missing pieces come draft night, and maybe finding a diamond in the rough undrafted free agent. That's the beauty of having our franchise QB and Pass Rusher on rookie deals for 3-4 more years! Nick is dealing while letting the draft come to him. I don't even think he's done dealing to be quite honest! 42 days until we're on the clock in Detroit! Go Toros!
 
It's small sample size bias. Yeah, there's a curve that trends up regarding missing that goes throughout the draft when normalized. The actual pick number is not cursed.

And just like that you jinxed us, thanks a lot Lucky (which is a very ironic name given the topic)
 
I think we could have gotten much more on draft day as coveted players begin to fall. However, I think Nick sees Will Anderson as this years 1st rounder and there are many good prospects in rounds 2 & 3. I think Nick is cooking something up.
It just seems like all that draft capital from the Watson trade wasn't fully utilized.

Disagree, any team that wants to trade up to get one of the top QBs is going to have to do it before the draft and show they have the draft capital in hand ready to be dealt. If we had waited till draft day those teams 11-20, which is our trade partner group, would have either gotten the capital from somewhere else, decided to roll the dice that someone might fall or decided to hold off and not QB hunt this year. By trading it now I think we got more because now a team like the Vikings is able to start making calls early to try and get the spot they want, most likely top 3-5.
 
Didn't Tee Higgins demand to be traded? Maybe breaking the 1st round pick into smaller pieces gives Nick more options to make the trade. I'm just spit-balling here. :D
 
Then what would be the sense in making the trade down in the 1st place? But if you still want to bet, let me know.

I don't know. I posted this half asleep after waking up to piss, lol. Maybe we don't like anyone around 23 but we wanted to get another pick for ammo, I don't know
 
I have been pretty adamant about wanting a trade down preferably with Cardinals or Washington. This one meets my criteria and I am pretty sure the 42nd and 59th that we now have puts us right between 1.21 and 1.22. Therefore we can trade back almost to where we were . I am just surprised at the move being this early in the offseason. If, Nick decides to go after one or two guys he wants higher in the first round he has even more ammo today. I also think that a move for a veteran player is still on the table if the right deal meets Nick's approval.
I'm definitely not understanding your logic. Why would you do this trade today if you were even imagining trading back into the 1st round?
 
I really don't like this trade, especially right now for us. I imagine you could get a similar trade on draft night with another team picking higher in the 2nd round and you should still get another 2nd rounder in that deal. The timing of this just feels stupid.
 
This is a chess move right here. This class is loaded with players at positions we can use, and this helps set us up for when Stroud and Anderson get PAID. Wouldn't surprise me if they considered doing it again next year. They will have to get creative on balancing the salary cap and retaining our top-tier players.

This would be an interesting sim to run... projected contracts for 1.2 & 1.3 (Stroud/AndersonJ), 5th yr options, franchise tags, adjusted-for-inflation cap increase....
 
I'm definitely not understanding your logic. Why would you do this trade today if you were even imagining trading back into the 1st round?
I think for the same reason that was mentioned Upstream by perhaps Lucky, Vikings thought a round one to add to theirs would be better than two round twos. Another team might have the same reaction in reverse. 42 and 59 = 1.21 to 1.22 add that to sweetener from 2025 and we could be in play for top of draft.


With the news that Mason is doing a rework to increase cap space, I am looking at a huge trade as I do not see anybody on the free agent Market that we could not already encapsulate.
I really don't like this trade, especially right now for us. I imagine you could get a similar trade on draft night with another team picking higher in the 2nd round and you should still get another 2nd rounder in that deal. The timing of this just feels stupid.
Bird in the hand sort of deal I guess; but also I think It gives Nick ammunition to make other deals. He is definitely Sonny today !
 
Exactly and McConkey will be there with the Vikings pick. Value
I know you like McConk but I am not as sold on him. Size and speed is good but he has been evaluated as having not so good hands. He was compared to Metchie but also to Tennessee Hyatt whom I liked.
 
I think for the same reason that was mentioned Upstream by perhaps Lucky, Vikings thought a round one to add to theirs would be better than two round twos. Another team might have the same reaction in reverse. 42 and 59 = 1.21 to 1.22 add that to sweetener from 2025 and we could be in play for top of draft.


With the news that Mason is doing a rework to increase cap space, I am looking at a huge trade as I do not see anybody on the free agent Market that we could not already encapsulate.

Bird in the hand sort of deal I guess; but also I think It gives Nick ammunition to make other deals. He is definitely Sonny today !

Who is franchise tagged right now that may be traded? Or who was just recently released?

Higgins.
Winfield.
Williams Chargers.

Also add current free agents we may be talking to.

Simmons
Howard
Renfrow
Bakhtiari
White
Young

And maybe Nick is waiting to see how the cap movement of other teams advances as we get deeper into the new league year and we get someone unexpected with our extra space. I’m intrigued.

Alternatively - we may be freeing up room to extend Nico now.
 
With the news that Mason is doing a rework to increase cap space, I am looking at a huge trade as I do not see anybody on the free agent Market that we could not already encapsulate.

Bird in the hand sort of deal I guess; but also I think It gives Nick ammunition to make other deals. He is definitely Sonny today !
Tee Higgins.
 
I think Nick will move up in the 2nd to get the player he wants. I’ll put money on it.
 
I think for the same reason that was mentioned Upstream by perhaps Lucky, Vikings thought a round one to add to theirs would be better than two round twos. Another team might have the same reaction in reverse. 42 and 59 = 1.21 to 1.22 add that to sweetener from 2025 and we could be in play for top of draft.


With the news that Mason is doing a rework to increase cap space, I am looking at a huge trade as I do not see anybody on the free agent Market that we could not already encapsulate.

Bird in the hand sort of deal I guess; but also I think It gives Nick ammunition to make other deals. He is definitely Sonny today !
If you're trying to be in play for the top of the draft then 1.23 + 2.59 would be way more appealing. Ammunition doesn't seem better doing this trade to me either. I really don't understand why we didn't wait to do this type of deal on draft night when teams could like a player that falls in the draft and we could have possibly gotten a better deal.
 
I really don't like this trade, especially right now for us. I imagine you could get a similar trade on draft night with another team picking higher in the 2nd round and you should still get another 2nd rounder in that deal. The timing of this just feels stupid.

Just a thought, but they mightve gone ahead and pulled the trigger now is because youve already decided youre ok mising out on the likely players available in that range.

You may have been able to trade down on draft day, but not if there isnt a team that wants to trade up for whatever player is on board.

Vikings could've pushed to get this done early as well so they have the ammo needed to make other moves for a qb.
 
If you're trying to be in play for the top of the draft then 1.23 + 2.59 would be way more appealing. Ammunition doesn't seem better doing this trade to me either. I really don't understand why we didn't wait to do this type of deal possibly gotten a better deal.
I guess we will just have to wait and see what Nick does.
 
Back
Top