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First Round Trade

Lucky said:
That reasoning makes zero sense as the pick at 2.42 would be eligible for free agency when the 5th year option at 1.23 is due.

Good news is the Vikings will suck in 2024 and that 2025 2nd should easily be in the top 10 of the round.
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But an extension would be stretched over 4 years (the bonus or guarantee that is) which would make that year of Stroud’s and WAJ’e extension a 1-2 million dollar hit against the cap year for this hypothetical rookie. With a 5th year option the money is fully guaranteed and 100% against cap.
 
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I mean I am all for trading down and getting more draft picks, but this seems kinda underwhelming? Looking at the trade value chart (which is bs, i know) it seems like it is just about fair (if you treat the 2025 second as the last pick of the round). But we haven‘t even seen, who is available at that spot yet - and the extra pick is also only a 6th rounder. I would have liked to get another 3d rounder in here, even if it meant for us to give up a 5th or something.

But people were calling for the Patriots way, I guess this is it. And I can‘t hate the move. There are plenty of WRs, CBs, and DTs that should be available at either of our 2nd round picks…
 
Iffy about the move as giving up your 1st rounder can put you at the mercy of other teams but I'll yield to the expertise of Caserio on this one and hope it works out.
 
The 2nd rounder of a team starting either Sam Darnold or a rookie isn't a bad gamble, although we just ruined the same scenario for Arizona.

Fully imagine this is ammo for Minnesota to try and trade up.

With the depth at the OT, WR classes and the amount of projected round 2 talent at DT I'm not that bummed by this.
 
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They are looking at the value next year.
Minimum would be 123 points on the value chart, maximum would be 433. (Nett gain)
 
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I think we could have gotten a really good player that will fall to 23 because of the WRs and QBs.

Open up an E*Trade account Nick. You’re day trading with the wrong stuff.
 
So, the savings on this year's cap opens up room for one more FA that wouldn't have been possible otherwise?
I'm not following as closely as some of you, so correct me if I'm wrong, but there are still a number of good safeties available and that's what I'm hoping for
 
JWLCASPER said:
But an extension would be stretched over 4 years (the bonus or guarantee that is) which would make that year of Stroud’s and WAJ’e extension a 1-2 million dollar hit against the cap year for this hypothetical rookie. With a 5th year option the money is fully guaranteed and 100% against cap.
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6 of one, half dozen of the other. The reason the Texans made this deal is because the range of players they're looking at extend into the 2nd round. I advocated in the draft forum to trade down into the 2nd round for that reason. And I was thinking a team that missed out on the QBs early would try to trade back into the 1st to get one of the 2nd tier QBs. I didn't think about a team acquiring an extra 1st to move up to take a top tier guy. The Vikings should have enough to get as far as 1.3 if there is a seller.
santo said:
There goes my dream of getting Marvin Harrison Jr. 🤣
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Let's start a rumor that Harrison Jr had a low S2 score. That's the ticket.
 
I think this trade only makes sense if it lines up with the current Texans draft board. Essentially that picks on the Texans from 23-42 on the Houston draft board are very similar in terms of grading, and that the decline in player value is well worth a high 2nd in next years draft.
 
cland said:
I think this trade only makes sense if it lines up with the current Texans draft board. Essentially that picks on the Texans from 23-42 on the Houston draft board are very similar in terms of grading, and that the decline in player value is well worth a high 2nd in next years draft.
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They should be able to find a stud WR at 2-42 and add a safety like Simmons in FA.
 
Number19 said:
Also the short game? He saves about $6m in cap dollars that has to be set aside for rookie salaries?
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michaelm said:
So, the savings on this year's cap opens up room for one more FA that wouldn't have been possible otherwise?
I'm not following as closely as some of you, so correct me if I'm wrong, but there are still a number of good safeties available and that's what I'm hoping for
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The pick at 1.23 has a cap hit of $3.4 million in 2024. The pick at 2.42 has a cap hit of $1.7 million. A difference of $1.7 million, not $6 million. Not enough to make a free agent splash by itself.
 
Ever the contrarian, I think this was an excellent trade. Good job Tricky Nicky. I never thought they would actually pick at #23 anyway.

I'd expect that pick next year to be somewhere between 35-48. Likely right around 40-42 again. That's good stuff. So, next year you've got a 1st and 2 seconds to move up or down the board.

As for this year, you move up the board about 50ish slots with one of those 7th. Not the big prize...but it's something.

And I don't think there's that much difference in the players between 23 and 42. That said...if someone falls that they really like...Nick now has the ammo to go get them. Whether it's a move back into the late first or early second...it can be done.

It provides a lot of flexibility to move up or down. If they stay put, I expect some combo of DT, CB, and WR with those 2 second-rounders.
 
I’m cool with the trade. Caserio is building around the young core that we have. There is going to be a run on QBs, and WRs in the first round which should push a lot of good players back to the second round where we now have two picks. Nick still has them late round picks he can flip for a late 3rd or a 4th round pick and still land a starter on defense or at RB. I didn’t expect the instant gratification crowd to like this trade, lol.
 
Mangler said:
I’m cool with the trade. Caserio is building around the young core that we have. There is going to be a run on QBs, and WRs in the first round which should push a lot of good players back to the second round where we now have two picks. Nick still has them late round picks he can flip for a late 3rd or a 4th round pick and still land a starter on defense or at RB. I didn’t expect the instant gratification crowd to like this trade, lol.
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Hehe, Caserio has built up a lot of fan trust in 2023... And now he's reinvested it. :tiphat:
 
Thorn said:
If you look at the point values assigned to the picks, we came out ahead. If you like looking at the point values of draft picks.
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It's close enough. A 2025 2nd round pick is worth a 2024 3rd round pick. The Texans got a 287 point differential in the trade. That's worth a late 2nd round pick in 2024. If you believe the Vikings will suck this season (as I do), it all comes out pretty even.
 
Lucky said:
Which is meaningless and has no bearing on who is picked at 1.23 this year. It's like "Ohio State has never produced a good pro QB."
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I know, but usually there is a, singular talent at every point of the draft; but the group at 23 seemed unusually bare. I imagine most of the late first looks that way, but I also think the miss rate at 23 is pretty close to miss rate at 40.
 
Actually, it is the hidden value of the trade: since we traded from 23-42 this year, that means we won't be as good this year. So, let's say we win 10 games instead of the 12 if we had drafted the stud that people want at 23... So now, that trade down, not only gets us Minnesota's pick next year, but it also moves up all of our picks 5-10 spots!!!! That's a HOMERUN! Check out the draft chart.
 
Errant Hothy said:
I know, but usually there is a, singular talent at every point of the draft; but the group at 23 seemed unusually bare. I imagine most of the late first looks that way, but I also think the miss rate at 23 is pretty close to miss rate at 40.
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It's small sample size bias. Yeah, there's a curve that trends up regarding missing that goes throughout the draft when normalized. The actual pick number is not cursed.
 
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