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FIRE O'BRIEN NOW!!!
- Thread starter Carr Bombed
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LMAO.
Make sure you only count offensive points.
Make sure you take out the OT scores.
Make sure you don't count a defensive takeover in FG range already.
All that don't even take into account the field position the D gave to the offense overall.
And not counting opponents' records/strenghts.
Don't kid yourself, Steelb.
LMAO.
Make sure you only count offensive points.
Make sure you take out the OT scores.
Make sure you don't count a defensive takeover in FG range already.
All that don't even take into account the field position the D gave to the offense overall.
And not counting opponents' records/strenghts.
Don't kid yourself, Steelb.
LMAO.
Make sure you only count offensive points.
Make sure you take out the OT scores.
Make sure you don't count a defensive takeover in FG range already.
All that don't even take into account the field position the D gave to the offense overall.
And not counting opponents' records/strenghts.
Don't kid yourself, Steelb.
Do you have these requirements for all other offenses too?
The Pats for instance/Chiefs/Rams/Saints.
How many of these things happened when Kubes offense scored the most points in franchise history? Context!!!!!!!
Dejaview
Wahoo Sabi
Then you do the same for every game in franchise history so the stats are comparable. What does your method prove?LMAO.
Make sure you only count offensive points.
Make sure you take out the OT scores.
Make sure you don't count a defensive takeover in FG range already.
All that don't even take into account the field position the D gave to the offense overall.
And not counting opponents' records/strenghts.
Don't kid yourself, Steelb.
maverick512000
Hall of Fame
You can twist numbers and stats to prove any point. The fact is that when it really counted neither the offense or the defense showed up to play football. O'Brien couldn't figure out how to score points after Fuller and Coutee went down and Crennel couldn't figure out how to stop any QB that wasn't just a place holder till their team could draft someone. You can talk about number points scored in franchise history or top 5 rated defense but at the end of the day they all looked liked amateurs.
This season is put up or shut up. The tough schedule people going on about isn't so much tough for the offense as it is for the defense. They are going to have to learn how to stop or at least slow down franchise QBs. At the same time the offense is going to have to put some real points on the board, not just try and FG them to death, so the defense has some breathing room and, speaking of that, stay on the field for longer than three plays so the defense can rest.
This season is put up or shut up. The tough schedule people going on about isn't so much tough for the offense as it is for the defense. They are going to have to learn how to stop or at least slow down franchise QBs. At the same time the offense is going to have to put some real points on the board, not just try and FG them to death, so the defense has some breathing room and, speaking of that, stay on the field for longer than three plays so the defense can rest.
cameronkrazie86
Rookie
It's weird how they scored at will with Watson as a rookie and then abandoned everything he did so successfully (dominate on play action passing).
There was definitely a lot more play action.
Not sure if they ran less often, but considering the defense was terrible that year and they were playing from behind, they probably passed way more on first down.
maverick512000
Hall of Fame
Not really, rookie QBs, if they are talented, almost always have great first seasons because nobody really has NFL game tape on them or know how to plan for them. Its why they talk about the sophomore year being the real test. Happens with almost all QBs not named Brady, watch I bet you'll see it with Mahomes this year.
Dejaview
Wahoo Sabi
Wrong. You stated it as if you already knew the answer...”don’t kid yourself”...Since you obviously had to know the outcome of the research, what did you find? No doubt you were questioning the 2nd most points comment. You didn’t think to have to apply it to all games.That is exactly what I ask you to do.
OBVIOUSLY.
Duh.
Huh? Never heard of this argument before. Sounds like excuses for O'Brien to me
Dejaview
Wahoo Sabi
Wrong. You stated it as if you already knew the answer...”don’t kid yourself”...Since you obviously had to know the outcome of the research, what did you find? No doubt you were questioning the 2nd most points comment. You didn’t think to have to apply it to all games. You didn’t ask ANYBODY to do that. Duh.That is exactly what I ask you to do.
OBVIOUSLY.
Duh.
Mr teX
Hall of Fame
That is exactly what I ask you to do.
OBVIOUSLY.
Duh.
& we're back on this nonsense...
His only claim is that they put up the 2nd most ppg in franchise history & won 11 games against some pretty good defenses lsat year.....
Never said the offense was good or ranked tops in the NFL ...in fact he said "really bad" in his post....which i'm pretty sure means the opposite of good.
So there's nothing to prove b/c what he said is all facts.
You need context.
Which you can get by following the convo from the start.
maverick512000
Hall of Fame
Everything that isn't "BoB is the worst thing to ever happen to Houston that wasn't ranked a Cat 5" sounds like an excuse to you.
Mr teX
Hall of Fame
Not really. We saw Ryan Fitzpatrick look like the best QB in the league for about 4 games last year before he turned back into a pumpkin. Same can be said for other marginal qbs like Blake Bortles, Josh Freeman & Kyle Orton. It is not uncommon for offenses to go on runs like what we saw with DW4 & the offense for 7 games in his rookie year.
Well your argument that QBs play better as rookies seems clearly wrong to me
maverick512000
Hall of Fame
You've seriously never heard of a Sophomore slump?
Mr teX
Hall of Fame
Not really b/c i've heard this same tired argument for like a year with k-dog...& i'll tell you the same thing that i tell him all the time...noone pays attention to nor gives a rats ass about the offensive TD stat b/c at the end of the day its about the points that get put up on the board. It might have more meaning if this were like the NBA/MLB where you play more games over a season & the playoffs are a "best of" series'..but of course the NFL is a 1 & done so it doesn't matter as much.
If you don't care to join in a certain friendly argument, fine.
Just stay out of it.
Thank you.
Dejaview
Wahoo Sabi
You state you don’t need to know the answer but you phrased your answer as if you already knew it or you were just blowing smoke out your ass. What did you base your answer on since it wasn’t based on your stated methodology? I see smoke....
Once again.
It doesn't matter what I know or don't know.
Steelb made a claim.
I asked him to make sure his claim is true.
Nah, the premise started with "running on first down" isn't conducive to a sucessful offense.
There were 10 years worth of data on it.
The Texans led the league in that category.
Steelb countered by saying that they (the offense) still managed the 2nd highest points scored in franchise history.
I asked him to make sure that point is valid.
Yeah. This season is put up or shut up. Just like last season. The season before that & from the look of things, next season too.
Mr teX
Hall of Fame
That's easily verifiable bro. I've stated this at least twice in other threads with k-dog.. Kubiak's offenses more or less stayed at around 22 ppg pre-Foster. Enter Foster in 2009 & the ppg consistently hit 24 ppg with a highwater mark of 26 ppg in 2012. I don't need to tell you what happened to the ppg the year Foster went down...Had Kubes out there having heart attacks & ****.
BoB's offense last year hit at 24 ppg for the 1st time under him in which case it makes sense considering that last year was the 1st year under BoB where we've had a qb under center worth a damn for all 16 games. That 24 ppg ties for the 2nd most avg ppg in texans history; Kubiak had several seasons in Foster's prime where they were at 24 ppg.
Speedy
Former Yeller Dweller
2nd most points scored because they kicked a ton of FGs and made them. They were 20th in scoring TD.
There's where using stats out of context to fit your agenda comes in.
Mr teX
Hall of Fame
Lol, clearly you don't understand what out of context means.
If he'd have used that stat to say that the offense was good, yeah, you'd be correct. He only stated the fact that despite the challenges all over the team, they were still able to do that.
But who gives a **** whether it was FG's or not? Did those FG's help win 11 games last year? Did they contribute to an NFL league high 9 game win streak? What, are you going to frown at winning a game b/c it can done by kicking a FG rather than a scoring a TD?
You guys are ridiculous. In such a rush to condemn something that he or NOONE else in their right mind has even said...............which is, "the offense is good".
Then there's no real disagreement here. We agree the team scored a decent amount of points but the offense sucked.
The Texans were 12th in PPG in the league last year (highest ever for Bill O'Brien), although I would give a lot of credit to the defense and special teams for making it easier on the offense. Just analyzing the offense alone, they don't rank high on scoring, he's only gotten as high as 15th (twice). Last year he got to 15th kicking a lot of field goals, and O'Brien's first year he got to 15th with Kubiak's OL.
Kubiak managed to get top 12 in the league in team scoring 4 times, and that was sometimes with a bad defense (which is his fault). Looking at offensive scoring only, Kubiak ranked in the top 10 3 times.
Dejaview
Wahoo Sabi
Funny. I thought bad defenses made you play catch up, not sit on a lead?
Did other teams do this also?
They couldn't have kicked say 50 more FG's than say the Pats did.
BTW, I dont have an agenda.
Good point. But also give the team poor field position. I guess those things can balance out.
Texans were first in field position and made 2.2 field goals per game vs 1.7 for the pats. So 8 more field goals
So 24 pts.
I expected a lot more FG's from the Texans than Pats than that. That small of a difference is really surprising.
Until the OL gets fixed you can expect more of this. No chicken/egg here.
Dejavu thought I had the answer; I didn't.
I only had looked at it briefly some time in the past.
I have a few drinks today, so please verify these interesting numbers.
All the numbers can be found by looking up this page.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/htx/
Last year, the Texans scored 402 points, but 28 were by other means (I automatically count the extra point here - this could make a difference, as we shall see).
13 points were in OT, so the net is 361
We all probably think that 2012 was by far, the best offensive output.
It wasn't
416 total points, but 35 were by other means
12 points were in OT, so the net is 369 points, ranked second.
It was 2010 that the offense produced the most points.
390 total, 3 in OT for a net of 387.
Based on this, last year's offense ranked third in franchise history in point scored.
The interesting thing is both 2009 and 2011 saw a net of 360, just a point short of last year offensive scoring output.
(That's why I said that one point may make a difference.)
Given that the Defense under Kubiak were only good in 2011, and 2012 and the fact that the Texans don't invest heavily in offense under Kubiak (arguably less than under O'Brien), it's more than clear that Kubiak's offense was much more consistent.
And Kubiak started from scratch; not so O'Brien.
Now, I may be a little bit off, but it was clear that the best offensive output under O'Brien only ranks third in franchise history.
And only by 1 over two other years, or thereabout. (This needs verification).
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Yep, that's why I like to rank them relative to the rest of the league. Kubiak was almost always in the top half and several times in top 10 on offense. OBrien maybe twice snuck into 15th depending on which metric you use. And we know with advanced metrics like dvoa it looks even worse for OBrien.
As an OC, Kubiak had proven it before arriving to H-Town and afterwards, with aging QBs like Elway and Manning, middle of the road Flacco and even Osweiler.
dream_team
Hall of Fame
I don't like using points per game to measure an offense's success. There's alot of factors that go into scoring points. It's especially bad when trying to compare offenses in two different eras.
If I had to pick just one stat, to try to compare offenses objectively, it would be offensive dvoa. Here are the Texans' rankings for dvoa over the Kubiak & BOB tenures.
Kubiak
---------
2007 15
2008 13
2009 10
2010 2
2011 9
2012 16
2013 29
O'Brien
---------
2014 21
2015 24
2016 30
2017 24
2018 21
If I had to pick just one stat, to try to compare offenses objectively, it would be offensive dvoa. Here are the Texans' rankings for dvoa over the Kubiak & BOB tenures.
Kubiak
---------
2007 15
2008 13
2009 10
2010 2
2011 9
2012 16
2013 29
O'Brien
---------
2014 21
2015 24
2016 30
2017 24
2018 21
That's what KDog meant by "using any relevant metrics".
It is so sad that Deshaun Watson barely improves OBriens offense compared to when fitz, hoyer, mallet, and osweiler were here.
Mr teX
Hall of Fame
Lol. The defense can't even make it easy on themselves...getting taken out to the woodshed by the likes of Blaine Gabbert & Eli Manning. Find me the stat that shows how much the defense benefited from SOS & field position & then we can talk, b/c you just like the offense benefited from it, so did the defense. Find me a stat that shows how many times ST put the defense pinned the opposing offense inside their own 20 to assist our vaunted defense. There is no "analyzing the offense alone" anymore than you can analyze the defense alone. The stats you like to point out are only a small part of the pic...& this is what you don't & get & never have.
& what good did that do him? For that matter, what good does it do any team to get a funky top....whatever offensive ranking if they don't take home the Lombardi? The way ya'll talk, Kubiak was running an offensive juggernaut here....well the record, numbers and everything else suggest that not to be the case.
Dvoa is a metric that takes into account those factors to evaluate defense, offense and special teams. PFF also does a ranking based on grading each play I believe.
Not perfect but those are the best publicly available at this point.
I don't know that kubiak offense counts as a juggernaut, but I agree with Andre and foster that the 2011 team was gonna win the super bowl. I don't think the team collapses with the schaub foot injury and Rick forcing a terrible schaub extension on kubiak
Dejaview
Wahoo Sabi
Or just go by wins. Kubiak has a losing record with the Texans and, OB to date, a winning one. IMO the Texans now seem to be putting more emphasis on all phases of the game which helps each part of the whole.
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