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All encompassing Rick Smith thread

JB said:
After spending 2 2nds on Schaub and with him playing at a high level, Kubiak and Smith would have been crucified on this board if he had spent a 3rd or higher on a qb, unless it was a sure fire lock to be an elite one. How many of those were drafted between 2006-13?
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I doubt it. Far as I remember even his fans crossed their fingers at the beginning of every season hoping he wouldn't get hurt. If anything the Texans would have been crucified for not letting a 2nd/3rd round pick get snaps at the end of blow-outs, two minute drills & if Matt had a hang nail. & that was when he was playing wel.
 
thunderkyss said:
I doubt it. Far as I remember even his fans crossed their fingers at the beginning of every season hoping he wouldn't get hurt. If anything the Texans would have been crucified for not letting a 2nd/3rd round pick get snaps at the end of blow-outs, two minute drills & if Matt had a hang nail. & that was when he was playing wel.
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Yes but after the 2011 season, it was all "man if only schaub would have been there" not "man we need to draft another QB"
 
JB said:
After spending 2 2nds on Schaub and with him playing at a high level, Kubiak and Smith would have been crucified on this board if he had spent a 3rd or higher on a qb, unless it was a sure fire lock to be an elite one. How many of those were drafted between 2006-13?
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Making tough decisions that may not be popular is why Smith gets paid the big $$$$. Or maybe not.
 
JB said:
Yes but after the 2011 season, it was all "man if only schaub would have been there" not "man we need to draft another QB"
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Yeah, but how hard would it have been to sell "and we got X in case something happens to Matt again"?

Egad - looking back we could have had Wilson or Foles with the Posey pick or Cousins with the Ben Jones pick. Live and learn.
 
infantrycak said:
Yeah, but how hard would it have been to sell "and we got X in case something happens to Matt again"?

Egad - looking back we could have had Wilson or Foles with the Posey pick or Cousins with the Ben Jones pick. Live and learn.
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sure it's easy to apply hindsight, but what was your mindset in late March of 2012? I'm sure it wasn't that we needed to get a qb
 
JB said:
sure it's easy to apply hindsight, but what was your mindset in late March of 2012? I'm sure it wasn't that we needed to get a qb
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I don't remember thinking about it at the time. I didn't like TJ so I don't think I'd have squawked at a better backup. I get your point. Not saying it would have been a popular pick but I don't think there would have been a hue and cry either. It's not like Posey was a popular pick. Iirc that one was largely panned.

Bottom line, as I said above, once we finally find a starter I hope we invest a 2nd or 3rd every 4 years instead of a 5th or lower every year.
 
infantrycak said:
I don't remember thinking about it at the time. I didn't like TJ so I don't think I'd have squawked at a better backup. I get your point. Not saying it would have been a popular pick but I don't think there would have been a hue and cry either. It's not like Posey was a popular pick. Iirc that one was largely panned.
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yeah 2012 was not a good draft for us. My initial comment that there would have been an uproar had forgot about the 2012 draft. There would have been no complaining with Wilson or Cousins being selected in the 3rd of that draft, but other than that...
 
HOU-TEX said:
CA9xPVsVAAALt0R.jpg
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NFL Total Access @NFLTotalAccess
Interesting...

General Managers with the highest percentage of #NFLDraft picks to make 1+ Pro Bowls: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CA9xPVsVAAALt0R.jpg
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I'm at a loss for words... Rick & Jerruh? Jerruh??? :mcnugget:
 
JB said:
How many players did it take to make the list tho?
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Depends on how many drafts you've been a part of, the more drafts, the more players.

But.

Their numbers don't add up unless you don't count the past 2 drafts. Those last two drafts haven't been good so far.

By my count, he's at 9.1% including the last draft. If you exclude the previous 2 drafts, I have him at 12.8%. So I don't know how the heck they're calculating it.
 
The Pencil Neck said:
Depends on how many drafts you've been a part of, the more drafts, the more players.

But.

Their numbers don't add up unless you don't count the past 2 drafts. Those last two drafts haven't been good so far.

By my count, he's at 9.1% including the last draft. If you exclude the previous 2 drafts, I have him at 12.8%. So I don't know how the heck they're calculating it.
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Did you try excluding just 1?
 
Active GMs with best record of drafting Pro Bowlers

For all the grief Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones receives when it comes to his football acumen, guess which NFL decision-maker has drafted the highest percentage of Pro Bowl players?

It's Jones -- 14.7 percent of his draftees (34 of them) have made at least one Pro Bowl. In all, 17 current NFL decision-makers have drafted players who have made it to a Pro Bowl.

Here's a look at the 10 -- actually, it's 11 because of a tie -- who have drafted the highest percentage of Pro Bowlers. Players who have been to multiple Pro Bowls count only once.

T-10. Ryan Grigson, Indianapolis Colts
The skinny: Grigson has had 9.09 percent of his draftees (two players) make it to a Pro Bowl. That's a relatively good hit rate so far; it helps when an executive's initial first-round pick is a no-brainer: Andrew Luck.

T-10. Ozzie Newsome, Baltimore Ravens
The skinny: Newsome also has had 9.09 percent of his draftees (10 players) make it to a Pro Bowl. Haloti Ngata, Terrell Suggs and Marshal Yanda are among those who have been picked under Newsome's watch.

9. Mike Brown, Cincinnati Bengals
The skinny: Brown has had 9.52 percent of his draftees (20 players) make a Pro Bowl. Geno Atkins, Andy Dalton and A.J. Green are three of his most recent success stories.

8. Rick Spielman, Minnesota Vikings
The skinny: Spielman has had 10.34 percent of his draft picks (three players) with the Vikings make it to a Pro Bowl. OT Matt Kalil was his first first-round selection as the Vikes' GM.

7. Ted Thompson, Green Bay Packers
The skinny: Thompson, a former scout, has seen 10.42 percent of his draft picks (10 players) eventually become Pro Bowl players. Non-first-rounders such as Josh Sitton and Greg Jennings have worked out quite well.

6. Bill Belichick, New England Patriots
The skinny: The hoodied-one has had 10.53 percent of his draft picks (14 players) make a Pro Bowl. His 14 Pro Bowl draftees are the fourth-highest total among current decision-makers. Vince Wilfork, Logan Mankins and Rob Gronkowski (a second-rounder) are among his draftees.

5. Kevin Colbert, Pittsburgh Steelers
The skinny: Colbert has had 12.30 percent of his draftees (15 players) become Pro Bowlers. His 15 Pro Bowl draftees are the third-highest among current decision-makers. He has worked with Bill Cowher and Mike Tomlin, and has provided those coaches with players such as Troy Polamalu, Ben Roethlisberger and Le'Veon Bell.

4. Rick Smith, Houston Texans
The skinny: Smith has had 12.33 percent of his draft picks (nine players) make it to a Pro Bowl. Smith first-rounder J.J. Watt, the 11th overall pick when he came out, might end up being the best defensive player of his era. (An aside: Smith played at Purdue from 1988-92; a teammate in his final two seasons at Purdue was Ryan Grigson.)

3. John Schneider, Seattle Seahawks
The skinny: Schneider has had a lot of success in a relatively short amount of time. He has had 14.58 percent of his draftees (seven players) make a Pro Bowl. Kam Chancellor, Richard Sherman and Russell Wilson are among his draftees.

2. Mickey Loomis, New Orleans Saints
The skinny: Almost 15 percent (14.60) of Loomis' draft picks have been Pro Bowlers (12 players). Fourth-rounder Jahri Evans and third-rounder Jimmy Graham, who played just one season of college football, are among his most notable middle-round hits.

1. Jerry Jones, Dallas Cowboys
The skinny: Almost 15 percent (14.72) of Jones' draft picks have been Pro Bowlers (34 players, 14 more than anybody else currently making draft decisions). Among his non-first-round picks who have paid off are RB DeMarco Murray and TE Jason Witten, a third-rounder who has been to 10 Pro Bowls.
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I only count 6 players. They said Smith had 9 draft choices who'd made the pro bowl? They'd have to include 2006 for that to be right... and that wasn't Smith.
 
JB said:
sure it's easy to apply hindsight, but what was your mindset in late March of 2012? I'm sure it wasn't that we needed to get a qb
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After seeing CND post on the long term effects of Schaub's injury there are a good number of posters that disagreed with this post in March 2012.

Rick Smith is a great GM, or numbers lie? 2-14 those are some numbers for you. How about Smith's stellar cap management? Yep Smith is great.
 
infantrycak said:
Well when you spot one sound an alarm. That was an unprovoked dead horse beating.
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Not liking those numbers much?

To think how much you like to use stats to prove your points and I give you the only stat that matters and that's the best you can come up with?

Lets use run on sentences as diversion talk.
 
steelbtexan said:
Not liking those numbers much?

To think how much you like to use stats to prove your points and I give you the only stat that matters and that's the best you can come up with?

Lets use run on sentences as diversion talk.
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If you weren't so distracted beating your dead horse you would have noticed I was being critical of Smith/Kubiak.

No diversion necessary.
 
Anyone who doesn't think that Alex Gibbs is responsible for drafting Duane Brown, and Frank Bush is responsible for drafting Brian Cushing and Wade Phillips is responsible for drafting JJ Watt is POORLY INFORMED.

RD 1 has never really been a problem for the Texans. RDs 2 thru 7 have been closer to a nightmare.
 
Texian said:
Anyone who doesn't think that Alex Gibbs is responsible for drafting Duane Brown, and Frank Bush is responsible for drafting Brian Cushing and Wade Phillips is responsible for drafting JJ Watt is POORLY INFORMED.

RD 1 has never really been a problem for the Texans. RDs 2 thru 7 have been closer to a nightmare.
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What we know is JJ wasn't first choice. They had a trade in place for #6 to take Patrick Peterson. And rumor is Smith wouldn't go through with the trade to #6 for Aldon Smith.
 
infantrycak said:
What we know is JJ wasn't first choice. They had a trade in place for #6 to take Patrick Peterson. And rumor is Smith wouldn't go through with the trade to #6 for Aldon Smith.
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Yeah but, yeah but, yeah but, if, if, if, rumor, rumor, rumor
 
When you're consistently picking early the probability to of picking future pro bowlers goes up substantially.
 
The Pencil Neck said:
Spots where the pro-bowlers have been picked:

11, 15, 26, 46, 73, 112.

That doesn't seem to support your hypothesis.
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A majority of your suggested numbers were picked in the top half their respective round.

Contrary to popular belief, not all pro bowlers are picked in the 1st rd.
 
Texian said:
A majority of your suggested numbers were picked in the top half their respective round.

Contrary to popular belief, not all pro bowlers are picked in the 1st rd.
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Which is contrary to what you said.

Round is irrelevant. You said picking earlier would lead to a higher percentage of pro-bowlers. The first round is earlier than the second which is earlier than the third, etc.

Your implication was that since Rick Smith has had a lot of top-half of the first round picks to work with, he'd have a higher percentage just by luck. That's not the case. Most of his first round picks have been mid-to-late first round picks and half of his "pro-bowlers" haven't even been first rounders, which by definition are not early picks.
 
Texian said:
Because the pick at 2/33 has higher probability than 2/64.
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And while that's true, if you have the pick at 32, you could have selected the pro-bowler that was selected at 33 but didn't.

The fact is, Rick Smith didn't draft those pro-bowlers early in the round, he picked most of them in the middle of the rounds and half of them not even in the 1st round.
 
Marshall said:
Really?

Did anybody pay attention in their statistics an probabilities classes?
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Actually, yes, I did.

And, yes, there was a typo there that I was still able to make into a point.

When I typed that, I had meant to type the numbers 33 and 32 to show that the 33rd pick was not somehow more important than the 32nd pick which makes the rounds irrelevant.

Texian's original point was that you have a higher probability of drafting pro bowlers the earlier your pick. And that's true. But his point was that Rick Smith had only had high draft picks and that was why he'd picked so many pro-bowlers. But that was not true. So far, none of Rick Smith's top-10 draft picks have made the pro-bowl (although we can hope that Clowney turns that around.)

When I pointed out that the pro-bowlers came from later in the first round AND even later rounds, Texian tried to make out that picking earlier in the later rounds gave Smith an advantage. Which again, was not the case AND picking earlier in the later rounds is not some great advantage because all the other teams have a chance to take that guy before he gets there.

Texian simply does not want to give Smith any credit. And that's OK, just be factually correct and consistent about it. If Smith gets the blame for the draft a couple of years ago, then he needs to get credit for those few picks he's gotten right.
 
The Pencil Neck said:
Actually, yes, I did.

And, yes, there was a typo there that I was still able to make into a point.

When I typed that, I had meant to type the numbers 33 and 32 to show that the 33rd pick was not somehow more important than the 32nd pick which makes the rounds irrelevant.

Texian's original point was that you have a higher probability of drafting pro bowlers the earlier your pick. And that's true. But his point was that Rick Smith had only had high draft picks and that was why he'd picked so many pro-bowlers. But that was not true. So far, none of Rick Smith's top-10 draft picks have made the pro-bowl (although we can hope that Clowney turns that around.)

When I pointed out that the pro-bowlers came from later in the first round AND even later rounds, Texian tried to make out that picking earlier in the later rounds gave Smith an advantage. Which again, was not the case AND picking earlier in the later rounds is not some great advantage because all the other teams have a chance to take that guy before he gets there.

Texian simply does not want to give Smith any credit. And that's OK, just be factually correct and consistent about it. If Smith gets the blame for the draft a couple of years ago, then he needs to get credit for those few picks he's gotten right.
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While not a large difference, Later does beget lesser AND at some point closes in on random as the correlation breaks down. My suspicion is that breakdown point is still after the 7the round. This is where you must be careful not to confuse a still smaller percentage from UFAs with the absolute increase in numbers because of the much larger class of UFAs.

But the typo does restore my faith that somebody listened.
 
I've stayed out of the Rick Smith talk for quite a while after it was determined that to the best of our knowledge Smith has no specific responsibility or accountability.

I will say this now though - Smith might be better with O'Brien doing his job than he was with Kubiak doing his job.

:fingergun:
 
Runner said:
I've stayed out of the Rick Smith talk for quite a while after it was determined that to the best of our knowledge Smith has no specific responsibility or accountability.

I will say this now though - Smith might be better with O'Brien doing his job than he was with Kubiak doing his job.

:fingergun:
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It is difficult for those used to dealing with a vertical power structure to comprehend a horizontal one, and particularly with a separate staff type structure outside of the primary structure.

But it's quite comfortable to those in a modern corporation.
 
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