doing some light skim work yesterday and I noticed an uncomfortable trend with Buffalo and Josh Allen in particular. Allen has played a defense rated no less than 12 over the last 6 weeks and played well. There is some jostling in terms of pure passing defense, but when I look at the last game where he faced a "bad" defense (MIA week 11) he absolutely lit them up (4 total TDs). I wonder if RAC is going to be able to pull another rabbit out of his hat. Buffalo has a suspect offensive line in terms of pass protection. Run block grades are more favorable. Geez everything I look at in terms of matchup and strength vs weakness regressions it looks like more and more that Buffalo should win this game.
Their offense is not a juggernaut by any means, add in a young QB in his first playoff game and the experience factor may come into play - BUT this is set up for the classic "game manager" situation. Buffalo has a top NFL defense. It is legit. You will have a hard time passing against them. Ed Oliver is going to feast inside especially coming home keep an eye on him. I'm not sure what Obrien has cooked up, but Im going to guess it will be a heavy dose of Carlos Hyde. It would make the most sense since that might be this teams "weakness" ranked outside the top 10 in run defense. In terms of SACKS Buffalo doesnt get home as much as some of the other top defensive units, so they rely on lockdown DBs and succeed for the most part. It will be interesting to see the T2T leader in Watson matched up with a less than stellar pass rush, OBrien wont be able to rely on "hero ball" with his receivers. He MUST scheme some wrinkles into the game plan.
I'm surprised HOU is a 3.5 point favorite honestly. If I still threw money at the wall to see what would stick, I'd be all over the UNDER in this game.
This is probably the most magnified coaching performance Bill O'Brien will have ever been in. Many Texan fans still have the INDY game fresh in their minds. I'm sure everyone learned from that right? Will O'Brien be out coached again? His playoff scoring offense is 12 points per game!!!
If the Houston Texan offense comes out slow, lethargic (the usual) this will be over by halftime. You cant expect the defense to hold. Beasley and Brown will have a big games. You have to keep up with them.
I dont even know how to take a guess on final score. Which Houston team will show up? So many question marks.