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Wildcard Round - Bills at Texans

I can’t believe all the dwelling going on about AJ scoring on that first drive.

But since this is a “dump on Watson” thread, I guess it shouldn’t surprise me. :rolleyes:
 
You should have seen the forum this one replaced. It was called the Bull Pen and to say it was horrid would be a compliment. It comprised 90% of the posters calling each other, and the other 10%, trolls.


Actually TexansTalk has been around longer than any other Texans related forum - as far back as 2002. There are a handful of us still around from that period.

There was a time this was the official NFL forum of the Texans.

I guess what I'm saying is that TT didn't replace the other forums - people just migrated here when those fell apart or went bad.
 
FYI, this is not the definition of EP.

EP is Conception based. It has nothing to do with how routes are adjusted based on read. That happens more or less in every offense.

EP concepts is more about roles being defined & changed based on formation. In one formation a player may be the move TE, in another he is the Y receiver. In another he's the Z receiver. His responsibility is the same based on the concept (play) called. So you get the same play from different formations that look like different plays.

Think of Kubiak's offense where he wants everything to look the same to the defense but different for the QB. EP wants everything to look different to the defense, but the same to the QB.

Adjusting routes works the same in Denver, Philly, NE, San Francisco., etc...

I was talking precisely to the point of a long winded play call - every offense nowadays runs plenty from each philosophy (WC,EP,AC) and for EP its basically a code word offense and every player is asked to know the the ENTIRE playbook ... what you describe is the essence of the problem to me. You have guys running around, jumping from 'position to position' ;which at its root is great to stretch the defense horizontally pre-snap; still adds a ton of memorization and responsibilities for each of the receiving options.

I see blown assignments all over the place every single game .. Keke Coutee has deemed himself USELESS because he couldn't figure out what to do when he moved from one space to the next. EP is "supposed" to be more malleable and able to change to fit the strength of the team .. run heavy or pass heavy; at least that's what it was created to do. With the advent of more spread concepts, and the 11 personnel or 0 back alignments, that initial dream was relegated to just a way to call out a long ass play and then shuffle everybody's responsibility based on what the QB says to do 1-2 seconds before the snap. Haven't we heard that Watson is 'missing calls/plays' in the huddle a few times this year? The concept you describe is basically just the pre snap QB read that is supposed to trigger everybody's memory on what to do on that particular play when the QB barks that particular code word.

Adjusting routes to me is what happens postsnap and its usually a chemistry thing with QB/WR and experience on what they do in those situations together as a partnership in this offense especially. WCO and AC make it a point to be precise in what they ask their receivers to do. It removes confusion.

That's why I feel its better just to be succinct in your play design, your huddle call and your pre snap reads. WCO and AC both do a better job of that. EP is complex to the point of detrimental. Put that in the hands of a monolithic guy like Bill O'Brien and it gets stale, easy for defenses to prep for and hard for the offense to execute at a high level on a consistent basis. Its all about efficiency and removing confusion because even if Deshaun Watson knows the offense inside and out it makes no difference if the other players aren't literally on the same page. It shouldn't take a decade to get this offense down.

FTR- Gary Kubiak's iteration of the WCO is poetry in motion. He offers so much presnap movement for his QB to get an accurate read, AND THEN he offers combo routes galore in passing sets, some so crazy they work, like running receivers across the grain and having the QB throw back across the momentum of the play and flow. play action in Koobs offense is deadly. How many times are receivers WIDE OPEN (3-5 yards) in Kubiak offense? All the time. In Bill OBriens offense he relies on individual greatness to get open. Look at many of the plays you can find online on EP passing plays and look at how it usually just attacks the sideline, OR some deep crossing stuff. It takes forever to materialize. It bothers me too because when you see Josh McDaniels execute the EP and by now that offensive unit has it down the way its supposed to work (for the most part - you see how even they struggle when they have new receivers who cant make the right read/assignment) but they prefer to attack horizontally POST SNAP .. they dont care if the pass is 3,4,5 yards .. to them its a net positive and they will dink and dunk all the way down the field if you let them they use the pass to open up the run. That doesnt happen here. Its not a QB issue, its a construct and delivery issue IMO.

Example of some EP plays and how they are designed:

2018-05-14_11-27-10.png


edit 2: (took me a second to find the link to the images above - really interesting since its based on Brian Daboll who we are about to match up with and who is supposed to run a similar offense to OBrien. Great read.

 
Last edited:
This forum is the best place to come for news on the Texans and conversations about the Texans. We do have a few "negative nellies" that nothing the Texans do is good (the ignore button works great). The info one gets here if by far superior than most, from play breakdowns to injury info (CnD is the best), to just plain conversations about the team and football.
 
I was talking precisely to the point of a long winded play call - every offense nowadays runs plenty from each philosophy (WC,EP,AC) and for EP its basically a code word offense and every player is asked to know the the ENTIRE playbook ... what you describe is the essence of the problem to me. You have guys running around, jumping from 'position to position' ;which at its root is great to stretch the defense horizontally pre-snap; still adds a ton of memorization and responsibilities for each of the receiving options.

I see blown assignments all over the place every single game .. Keke Coutee has deemed himself USELESS because he couldn't figure out what to do when he moved from one space to the next. EP is "supposed" to be more malleable and able to change to fit the strength of the team .. run heavy or pass heavy; at least that's what it was created to do. With the advent of more spread concepts, and the 11 personnel or 0 back alignments, that initial dream was relegated to just a way to call out a long ass play and then shuffle everybody's responsibility based on what the QB says to do 1-2 seconds before the snap. Haven't we heard that Watson is 'missing calls/plays' in the huddle a few times this year? The concept you describe is basically just the pre snap QB read that is supposed to trigger everybody's memory on what to do on that particular play when the QB barks that particular code word.

Adjusting routes to me is what happens postsnap and its usually a chemistry thing with QB/WR and experience on what they do in those situations together as a partnership in this offense especially. WCO and AC make it a point to be precise in what they ask their receivers to do. It removes confusion.

That's why I feel its better just to be succinct in your play design, your huddle call and your pre snap reads. WCO and AC both do a better job of that. EP is complex to the point of detrimental. Put that in the hands of a monolithic guy like Bill O'Brien and it gets stale, easy for defenses to prep for and hard for the offense to execute at a high level on a consistent basis. Its all about efficiency and removing confusion because even if Deshaun Watson knows the offense inside and out it makes no difference if the other players aren't literally on the same page. It shouldn't take a decade to get this offense down.

FTR- Gary Kubiak's iteration of the WCO is poetry in motion. He offers so much presnap movement for his QB to get an accurate read, AND THEN he offers combo routes galore in passing sets, some so crazy they work, like running receivers across the grain and having the QB throw back across the momentum of the play and flow. play action in Koobs offense is deadly. How many times are receivers WIDE OPEN (3-5 yards) in Kubiak offense? All the time. In Bill OBriens offense he relies on individual greatness to get open. Look at many of the plays you can find online on EP passing plays and look at how it usually just attacks the sideline, OR some deep crossing stuff. It takes forever to materialize. It bothers me too because when you see Josh McDaniels execute the EP and by now that offensive unit has it down the way its supposed to work (for the most part - you see how even they struggle when they have new receivers who cant make the right read/assignment) but they prefer to attack horizontally POST SNAP .. they dont care if the pass is 3,4,5 yards .. to them its a net positive and they will dink and dunk all the way down the field if you let them they use the pass to open up the run. That doesnt happen here. Its not a QB issue, its a construct and delivery issue IMO.
Great post!
 
some so crazy they work, like running receivers across the grain and having the QB throw back across the momentum of the play and flow. play action in Koobs offense is deadly. How many times are receivers WIDE OPEN (3-5 yards) in Kubiak offense? All the time. In Bill OBriens offense he relies on individual greatness to get open.
Kubes' offense was great. I loved the bootleg, throw back to Daniels who had cut across all the flowing bodies to the other side of the formation, WIDE OPEN. Good for 8-15 yards. Always guys wide open in that offense. Not very often does Watson have a WIDE OPEN receiver to throw to because of scheme. If the guy is wide open in this offense it's because Watson scrambled and a guy came open or the D blew a coverage.
 
Kubes' offense was great. I loved the bootleg, throw back to Daniels who had cut across all the flowing bodies to the other side of the formation, WIDE OPEN. Good for 8-15 yards. Always guys wide open in that offense. Not very often does Watson have a WIDE OPEN receiver to throw to because of scheme. If the guy is wide open in this offense it's because Watson scrambled and a guy came open or the D blew a coverage.

the offense was sound. I think it was even better the few years Koobs let Little Shanny call the plays.

Guys get open in this offense when the offensive line can hold for 4 seconds and Watson doesnt panic because there are 7 angry men running towards him trying to hurt him. If he had a nice 3-5 yard security blanket he could hit 99% of the time when there wasnt anything else available it would really help him out.
 
nice 3-5 yard security blanket he could hit 99% of the time when
Isn't there a guy like that on the roster? Hmmm, lemme think....oh ya, Duke Johnson. Couple of capable TE's as well. Seems like the only pass play now for the TE's is that little crappy two yard roll out, dump off play. Get me a TE open up the seam, on a LBer. Get me Duke open on a wheel route matched up against a slow footed LBer.
 
Isn't there a guy like that on the roster? Hmmm, lemme think....oh ya, Duke Johnson. Couple of capable TE's as well. Seems like the only pass play now for the TE's is that little crappy two yard roll out, dump off play. Get me a TE open up the seam, on a LBer. Get me Duke open on a wheel route matched up against a slow footed LBer.

right on cue! maybe its just me, but I see a guy who knows what he can do, and knows even how he should be used, but doesnt seem that inspired by what he's tasked with here on this team? It might be the cynic in me, but it leaves me wanting more, especially since I agree with you and Duke that he could really be used as a weapon.

 
right on cue! maybe its just me, but I see a guy who knows what he can do, and knows even how he should be used, but doesnt seem that inspired by what he's tasked with here on this team? It might be the cynic in me, but it leaves me wanting more, especially since I agree with you and Duke that he could really be used as a weapon.

Need to get that tweet to ol OB!
 
right on cue! maybe its just me, but I see a guy who knows what he can do, and knows even how he should be used, but doesnt seem that inspired by what he's tasked with here on this team? It might be the cynic in me, but it leaves me wanting more, especially since I agree with you and Duke that he could really be used as a weapon.
And it was this same damn thing with Lamar Miller for 3 years. Somebody within the Texans organization is very much a dumbass.
 
When Texans offense sputters, it starts with turnovers and penalties
Aaron Wilson , Houston Chronicle Jan. 1, 2020 Updated: Jan. 1, 2020 8:54 p.m.


Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson has a powerful, accurate arm and frequently freezes defenders with his high-energy, instinctive style.

DeAndre Hopkins is one of the most productive, sure-handed and acrobatic wide receivers in the game.

Running back Carlos Hyde regularly tramples defenders with his rugged tackle-breaking skills.

And Laremy Tunsil, in his first season with the team following a trade from the Dolphins, became the first Texans left tackle to be named to the Pro Bowl since Duane Brown in 2008.

So, why is such a talented offense, which features plenty of complementary pieces in wide receivers Kenny Stills and Will Fuller, tight ends Darren Fells and Jordan Akins and running back Duke Johnson, sputtering heading into a Saturday playoff game against the Buffalo Bills?

It’s a complicated, multi-layered issue.

The regression this past month boils down to five primary issues: an uptick in turnovers, untimely penalties, Fuller’s iffy health, an inconsistent running game and a disappearance of the run-pass option plays that were a staple of the Texans’ success earlier this season.


“Whenever we have penalties or turnovers, the offense isn’t going to look good, statistically speaking, all across the league in the game of football,” Stills said Wednesday afternoon. “So, we have to stop shooting ourselves in the foot.”

Ever since an impressive 28-22 victory Dec. 1 over the defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots, the offense has nosedived.

The Texans are 2-2 since that game, including last Sunday’s 35-14 loss to Tennessee during which they rested several starters, including Watson, Tunsil and Hopkins.

Watson played arguably his best overall game of the season against New England, outdueling Tom Brady by completing 72 percent of his throws for three touchdowns and zero interceptions and a 140.7 passer rating. He also caught a touchdown pass from Hopkins.


It marked Watson’s second-highest passer rating of the season, trailing his perfect 158.3 mark against Atlanta in October when he passed for 426 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions in a 53-32 blowout win.

Watson has thrown five interceptions in his three games played since the New England game.

That included a head-scratching 38-24 loss to Denver the following week as the team looked emotionally flat and didn’t match the Broncos’ intensity. Against Denver, Watson had one touchdown pass and two interceptions with two touchdown runs and a 63.1 passer rating.

In a narrow 24-21 win over the Titans the following week, Watson made uncharacteristically poor decisions as he was late on one end-zone throw and threw into heavy coverage for a pair of interceptions.

The Texans beat Tampa Bay to win the AFC South but Watson hobbled around with a sore right ankle and the defense carried the team with five turnovers, including intercepting Jameis Winston four times. Watson was 19 of 32 with no touchdowns and one interception and a 62.5 passer rating.

Watson attributes the recent offensive problems to himself.

“My turnovers, that’s pretty much it,” Watson said. “You take those two turnovers from Tennessee, and then just miscommunication in Tampa Bay, and that’s pretty much it. In the Denver game, we didn’t get too many opportunities in the red zone, but, yeah, if I don’t turn two balls over in Tennessee that’s 14 extra points and who knows how the game goes.

“It’s something that we corrected, but I can’t worry about that. Whatever happens, happens and we’ll move on from it.”
The rest of the story
 
I was talking precisely to the point of a long winded play call - every offense nowadays runs plenty from each philosophy (WC,EP,AC) and for EP its basically a code word offense and every player is asked to know the the ENTIRE playbook ... what you describe is the essence of the problem to me. You have guys running around, jumping from 'position to position' ;which at its root is great to stretch the defense horizontally pre-snap; still adds a ton of memorization and responsibilities for each of the receiving options.

I see blown assignments all over the place every single game .. Keke Coutee has deemed himself USELESS because he couldn't figure out what to do when he moved from one space to the next. EP is "supposed" to be more malleable and able to change to fit the strength of the team .. run heavy or pass heavy; at least that's what it was created to do. With the advent of more spread concepts, and the 11 personnel or 0 back alignments, that initial dream was relegated to just a way to call out a long ass play and then shuffle everybody's responsibility based on what the QB says to do 1-2 seconds before the snap. Haven't we heard that Watson is 'missing calls/plays' in the huddle a few times this year? The concept you describe is basically just the pre snap QB read that is supposed to trigger everybody's memory on what to do on that particular play when the QB barks that particular code word.

Adjusting routes to me is what happens postsnap and its usually a chemistry thing with QB/WR and experience on what they do in those situations together as a partnership in this offense especially. WCO and AC make it a point to be precise in what they ask their receivers to do. It removes confusion.

That's why I feel its better just to be succinct in your play design, your huddle call and your pre snap reads. WCO and AC both do a better job of that. EP is complex to the point of detrimental. Put that in the hands of a monolithic guy like Bill O'Brien and it gets stale, easy for defenses to prep for and hard for the offense to execute at a high level on a consistent basis. Its all about efficiency and removing confusion because even if Deshaun Watson knows the offense inside and out it makes no difference if the other players aren't literally on the same page. It shouldn't take a decade to get this offense down.

FTR- Gary Kubiak's iteration of the WCO is poetry in motion. He offers so much presnap movement for his QB to get an accurate read, AND THEN he offers combo routes galore in passing sets, some so crazy they work, like running receivers across the grain and having the QB throw back across the momentum of the play and flow. play action in Koobs offense is deadly. How many times are receivers WIDE OPEN (3-5 yards) in Kubiak offense? All the time. In Bill OBriens offense he relies on individual greatness to get open. Look at many of the plays you can find online on EP passing plays and look at how it usually just attacks the sideline, OR some deep crossing stuff. It takes forever to materialize. It bothers me too because when you see Josh McDaniels execute the EP and by now that offensive unit has it down the way its supposed to work (for the most part - you see how even they struggle when they have new receivers who cant make the right read/assignment) but they prefer to attack horizontally POST SNAP .. they dont care if the pass is 3,4,5 yards .. to them its a net positive and they will dink and dunk all the way down the field if you let them they use the pass to open up the run. That doesnt happen here. Its not a QB issue, its a construct and delivery issue IMO.

Example of some EP plays and how they are designed:

2018-05-14_11-27-10.png


edit 2: (took me a second to find the link to the images above - really interesting since its based on Brian Daboll who we are about to match up with and who is supposed to run a similar offense to OBrien. Great read.



I think @otisbean might want to look at those diagrams showing the multiple routes concluding relatively close.

Like I've been saying - those pass catchers ending up in the same vicinity aren't the fault of the route runner , they are by design.
 
I can’t believe all the dwelling going on about AJ scoring on that first drive.

But since this is a “dump on Watson” thread, I guess it shouldn’t surprise me. :rolleyes:

This is a dump on DW4 thread?

That's news to me.
 
Isn't there a guy like that on the roster? Hmmm, lemme think....oh ya, Duke Johnson. Couple of capable TE's as well. Seems like the only pass play now for the TE's is that little crappy two yard roll out, dump off play. Get me a TE open up the seam, on a LBer. Get me Duke open on a wheel route matched up against a slow footed LBer.

The TE's are usually open up the seam or atleast in the middle of the field.
 
I was talking precisely to the point of a long winded play call - every offense nowadays runs plenty from each philosophy (WC,EP,AC) and for EP its basically a code word offense and every player is asked to know the the ENTIRE playbook ... what you describe is the essence of the problem to me. You have guys running around, jumping from 'position to position' ;which at its root is great to stretch the defense horizontally pre-snap; still adds a ton of memorization and responsibilities for each of the receiving options.

I see blown assignments all over the place every single game .. Keke Coutee has deemed himself USELESS because he couldn't figure out what to do when he moved from one space to the next. EP is "supposed" to be more malleable and able to change to fit the strength of the team .. run heavy or pass heavy; at least that's what it was created to do. With the advent of more spread concepts, and the 11 personnel or 0 back alignments, that initial dream was relegated to just a way to call out a long ass play and then shuffle everybody's responsibility based on what the QB says to do 1-2 seconds before the snap. Haven't we heard that Watson is 'missing calls/plays' in the huddle a few times this year? The concept you describe is basically just the pre snap QB read that is supposed to trigger everybody's memory on what to do on that particular play when the QB barks that particular code word.

Adjusting routes to me is what happens postsnap and its usually a chemistry thing with QB/WR and experience on what they do in those situations together as a partnership in this offense especially. WCO and AC make it a point to be precise in what they ask their receivers to do. It removes confusion.

That's why I feel its better just to be succinct in your play design, your huddle call and your pre snap reads. WCO and AC both do a better job of that. EP is complex to the point of detrimental. Put that in the hands of a monolithic guy like Bill O'Brien and it gets stale, easy for defenses to prep for and hard for the offense to execute at a high level on a consistent basis. Its all about efficiency and removing confusion because even if Deshaun Watson knows the offense inside and out it makes no difference if the other players aren't literally on the same page. It shouldn't take a decade to get this offense down.

FTR- Gary Kubiak's iteration of the WCO is poetry in motion. He offers so much presnap movement for his QB to get an accurate read, AND THEN he offers combo routes galore in passing sets, some so crazy they work, like running receivers across the grain and having the QB throw back across the momentum of the play and flow. play action in Koobs offense is deadly. How many times are receivers WIDE OPEN (3-5 yards) in Kubiak offense? All the time. In Bill OBriens offense he relies on individual greatness to get open. Look at many of the plays you can find online on EP passing plays and look at how it usually just attacks the sideline, OR some deep crossing stuff. It takes forever to materialize. It bothers me too because when you see Josh McDaniels execute the EP and by now that offensive unit has it down the way its supposed to work (for the most part - you see how even they struggle when they have new receivers who cant make the right read/assignment) but they prefer to attack horizontally POST SNAP .. they dont care if the pass is 3,4,5 yards .. to them its a net positive and they will dink and dunk all the way down the field if you let them they use the pass to open up the run. That doesnt happen here. Its not a QB issue, its a construct and delivery issue IMO.

Example of some EP plays and how they are designed:

2018-05-14_11-27-10.png


edit 2: (took me a second to find the link to the images above - really interesting since its based on Brian Daboll who we are about to match up with and who is supposed to run a similar offense to OBrien. Great read.


So you're a WC guy, there's one of our differences.

True, you have to be inteligent to play in the EP. See: Coutee

Is it to much to ask players to learn how to know the offense inside and out? After all this is their jobs.
 
Actually TexansTalk has been around longer than any other Texans related forum - as far back as 2002. There are a handful of us still around from that period.

There was a time this was the official NFL forum of the Texans.

I guess what I'm saying is that TT didn't replace the other forums - people just migrated here when those fell apart or went bad.

Truth! I'm one that was on that old board before the team even had a name. I remember the old board with Vinny and Cak as moderators. I'm so busy these days with my business that I am not quite as active, but still lurk when I can and post from time to time.

To the game...For me, if we're going by the HC match up, it's a wipe out. I mean we have history to look at. What has BOB ever done in the playoffs besides bending over and taking it from the opposing sideline. Need I remind anyone of KC, Indy, et al? Everyone expecting some magical new offense or at least a lot of new wrinkles, makes me guffaw.

It's going to be the same predictable tired old BS. Slow start, lots of up the middle runs into the teeth of the D on 1st down, etc. We may get out with a win, but BOB doesn't believe in applying foot to throttle fully so expect one of BOB's patented we'll keep it close and win at the end wins. Or we may just be run off the field. This team will never win a Superb Owl without a HC change because BOB doesn't have a killer instinct, has a lousy feel for game planning and game day play calls, has poor time/clock management, and in general isn't a winner and doesn't have a winner's mentality. It's such a crappy Milquetoast approach from the top down and it just permeates the whole team - especially on the offensive side of the ball.

With that said, I feel they will eek it out with help from ST and a play when it matters by JJ that will have the place going crazy - Texans 20 Bills - 17.
 
Hello friends, another Bills fan here.

First, I have to say this: I read the message boards of our opponents' fan bases every single week, and this is, bar none, the most level-headed and highest quality football talk I've seen this season. An excellent forum.

This is only my second time ever watching Bills playoff football, as I began watching in 2004. It's the first time that I have thought we were good enough to have a chance at winning the game. I see our teams as fairly even, with opposite strengths and weaknesses. Obviously, your offense blows ours out of the water, and our defense has the edge over yours. I'm hoping our defense travels this weekend, because Watson, Fuller, and Hopkins terrify me, and every time I caught a Texans game this year the TE(s) seemed important. That is a lot of bodies to be able to cover, and we're thin at DB with Wallace limping around this week.

I'm curious about the special teams matchup - ours has lost us games vs NE and @ CLE, and has scraped by despite terrible performances another game or two. The remaining games, it feels like they are barely competent, and shaky while doing it. Our punter broke a franchise record for punts inside the 20, and yet it feels like he didn't get one inside the 15 all year, no matter the starting point of the punt. And he regularly shanks them at the absolute worst possible time. Hauschka hasn't been the same kicker since he got injured by a cheap shot vs. the Jets last season, I don't want him kicking anything further away than 47 yards. If you guys have good special teams, I could see that being the difference in the game, if your defense bends as much as your offense lights it up. I could also see your defense holding against our mediocre offense, with our defense having a good day. In either case, special teams would become important.

Those CB rankings (Tre White at 15 or whatever) show how silly PFF can be. The man leads the league in interceptions at the position and hasn't allowed a touchdown all season, and has the second lowest QBR against since 2017. And PFF doesn't seem to notice that we play coverage zone defense, and that a lot of his yards given up are while doing this in garbage time to kill clock. He's a stud. But like the other Bills fan said, he won't necessarily line up on any one receiver because we usually play zone, give up the short stuff, and bet on our opponents making a mistake at some point along the drive. Our last game in Texas, on Thanksgiving, was the perfect example of this strategy working. The NE game two weeks ago was the perfect example of its limitations. I think Watson is a very smart QB, and am worried that he will happily take the dink and dunk stuff down the field on long, crippling drives.

This is also the best opposition fan analysis of Josh Allen that I've seen. The narrative on him changes by the month, as he's really grown fast. Turnovers were the main story on him until week 5. Analysts on TV still pretend it's the main story. But he's only thrown 3 picks in his last 12 games, and lost 2 fumbles. This gives him a 23/5 Total TD/Total Turnover split in that span (and one of those games he only played 2 series, last week). They also talk about his accuracy issues, but that's a dated view of his problems and doesn't really describe him, well, accurately. When his feet are set, or he's rolling right, he's absurdly accurate. When he gets panicky and pumped up, his footwork is bad and his throws sail because of that. Right now, the things he needs to work on most are settling down, especially early, and reading the field better both pre-and-post snap. Cover 0 looks still confuse him, though he consistently beat it for the first time in his career 2 weeks ago. The stretch of football he played in November was tantalizing, against Miami, Denver, and Dallas. After that, a superficial look at the stats shows regression, but in reality he had pretty solid games against Baltimore, NE, and @Pittsburgh, which are obviously tough defenses. I'm hopeful that against yours he can look like he did in the previous three games. I wouldn't worry too much about deep shots. The early string of INTs has essentially made it impossible for him to not overthrow guys deep, as he's too scared of turnovers. Like his near-miraculous improvement in mid range (10-20 yards) throws over last offseason (he was horrendous there last year, and through a large chunk of this season had the best passer rating in the league on these throws, and is still top ~5 last I checked), I expect an improvement in this, but not until he gets a lot of offseason reps. We're excited about him. We hope that someday soon he can look like Watson does for you guys. I have so much respect for Deshaun, and if we lose, it's going to be because of him. I think he could win a super bowl this year, though I'm not sure your defense is quite yet up to the task.

I was happy to draw the Texans, because if we lose, I'll hold no ill will, it'll be easy to move on to next year. I like your team and almost always find myself rooting for them, especiallly since they give NE a hard time lately. If you guys move on, I'll be pulling for you from the AFC. Good luck and I hope it's a fantastic football game.
I have found the Ravens message board is also a good one to visit. Their fan base is also very knowledgeable and equally respectful of each other as well as visitors.

On Watson, he has had a tendency of ignoring the short game while surveying deep way too often this year. He’s probably not going to kill your defense with a thousand cuts. But if he’s matured and progressed as much as I hope, he’ll be wise to look more often to the TE’s and Duke.

If special teams becomes a storyline for the Texans, I suspect it will be a negative story for them. Fairbairn struggled early this year while adjusting to a new holder. I’m not too concerned about him or Anger. I’m more worried about our coverage teams and muffed punts. Seems to be a problem every time the Texans advance to the playoffs.

You hit the nail on the head- this game is about strength/weakness matchups. Also both teams have had problems with slow starts; for the Texans its plagued them all year. I believe Buffalo has had issues with this particular problem over the second half of the season.
 
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For what it’s worth, Deshaun Watson is 5-0 in his career against top 5 pass defenses so he’s been there before.
 
That 21-7 thumping at home to the Colts is still very fresh on my mind. How I wish that the Texans would win against the Bills, but I know that they won't be prepared enough to do so. The Texans' D hasn't done particularly well against newer quarterbacks this year, except for the 2nd Jags game in London. The Texans won't be prepared to win this wild card game either. I hope I'm wrong and they surprise me.
 
PFF 2019 Offensive line ranking

20. HOUSTON TEXANS
It’s safe to say that the Texans’ offensive line has exceeded expectations this season. Coming into this season, they were 31st on this list prior to the trade for Laremy Tunsil, but the significant improvement that we’ve seen from them in pass protection has them up to 20th heading into the playoffs. Tunsil stepped in and admirably filled a gaping hole at left tackle. Across the 2017 and 2018 seasons, Texans’ left tackles allowed a pressure once every 10 pass-blocking snaps, the worst mark in the NFL. Tunsil allowed a pressure only once every 28 snaps this season, fourth among qualifying left tackles.
21. BUFFALO BILLS
The Bills invested in their offensive line this offseason between free agency and the draft, and we’ve seen improvement from the unit over last season. Those additions along the line, combined with an emphasis on the short passing game and a resulting quicker release from Josh Allen, has lowered the signal-caller's pressure rate roughly seven percentage points from where it was last season. The Bills’ top pass blocker has been Dion Dawkins with a 76.4 pass-blocking grade.
 
Truth! I'm one that was on that old board before the team even had a name. I remember the old board with Vinny and Cak as moderators. I'm so busy these days with my business that I am not quite as active, but still lurk when I can and post from time to time.

To the game...For me, if we're going by the HC match up, it's a wipe out. I mean we have history to look at. What has BOB ever done in the playoffs besides bending over and taking it from the opposing sideline. Need I remind anyone of KC, Indy, et al? Everyone expecting some magical new offense or at least a lot of new wrinkles, makes me guffaw.

It's going to be the same predictable tired old BS. Slow start, lots of up the middle runs into the teeth of the D on 1st down, etc. We may get out with a win, but BOB doesn't believe in applying foot to throttle fully so expect one of BOB's patented we'll keep it close and win at the end wins. Or we may just be run off the field. This team will never win a Superb Owl without a HC change because BOB doesn't have a killer instinct, has a lousy feel for game planning and game day play calls, has poor time/clock management, and in general isn't a winner and doesn't have a winner's mentality. It's such a crappy Milquetoast approach from the top down and it just permeates the whole team - especially on the offensive side of the ball.

With that said, I feel they will eek it out with help from ST and a play when it matters by JJ that will have the place going crazy - Texans 20 Bills - 17.
Great post. Only difference is if BOB goes with his normal shitty play calling we lose. Hard to compete when you only have two plays to get a first down. Maybe not blasted early like last year against the Colts because Bills will be more like the Texans in play calling but we lose. Coaching matters especially on offense because a good start can change the other teams offense. Easily see us getting ahead but then BOB stays in turtle mode and we get burned on long play or turnover. Just my opinion and hope I am totally wrong.
 
is kevin Johnson one of there starting CB ..??? I guess he will be on Fuller ..???
 
Levi Wallace will be on Fuller most likely
We are not so sure that Levi is going to be able to play. Nasty non-contact ankle injury in week 17.

Kevin Johnson has been solid and has earned almost 40% of the defensive snaps in the last few weeks. They might also try to play safety Siran Neal (who I really like as DB depth) on the outside, which could be fine, or potentially disastrous.
 
I have found the Ravens message board is also a good one to visit. Their fan base is also very knowledgeable and equally respectful of each other as well as visitors.

On Watson, he has had a tendency of ignoring the short game while surveying deep way too often this year. He’s probably not going to kill your defense with a thousand cuts. But if he’s matured and progressed as much as I hope, he’ll be wise to look more often to the TE’s and Duke.

If special teams becomes a storyline for the Texans, I suspect it will be a negative story for them. Fairbairn struggled early this year while adjusting to a new holder. I’m not too concerned about him or Anger. I’m more worried about our coverage teams and muffed punts. Seems to be a problem every time the Texans advance to the playoffs.

You hit the nail on the head- this game is about strength/weakness matchups. Also both teams have had problems with slow starts; for the Texans its plagued them all year. I believe Buffalo has had issues with this particular problem over the second half of the season.
We definitely share the slow start issue, at least offensively. I think it's mostly on Allen needing time to settle down and get into a groove. He/they are good for long scoring drives when they need them in the 4th quarter. But the same task feels impossible in Q1.
 
The Texans are still Bill O'Brien's team. Here's how that plays out on the field: five teams have more than 250 first-down runs this year, and the Texans are the only one of those teams with a DVOA below -1.8% when they do it. They're at -5.6%. Since their bye week, as they've mostly dispensed with trying to run read-options or run-pass options in a meaningful way, that number is at -11.5%. Inside zone sparks joy for Bill O'Brien. When they played the Texans in 2018, Buffalo was able to hold the Houston run game to 3.0 yards per carry.

 
I am trying to stay optimistic. I keep telling myself two things:

1. Brian Hoyer is not our QB tomorrow
2. Andrew Luck and TY Hilton are not fueling the Bills offense

I know, I know, BoB is still our coach, but I feel like we are fielding a much better team this year in the playoffs. It comes down down to gameplan execution and coaching.
 
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Lol im.just being a homer. I really hope we win.

I hope so too. But I agree the Texans could fold--they seem to enjoy doing that in front of the home fans--if the Bills get out to an early lead and can tee off with their rush. Seems like a bad matchup for the Texans--bad run D, bad D in the middle, bad OL--all things the Bills have been winning against all year. Going from 66 sacks to 49 after all the draft picks used and traded is not much of a success, so Hyde better bring it tomorrow to open things up.

And hopefully tomorrow, the Texans won't let Kevin Johnson be the Wild Card version of Kareem Jackson.
 
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I hope so too. But I agree the Texans could fold--they seem to enjoy doing that in front of the home fans--if the Bills get out to an early lead and can tee off with their rush.
And when they tee off on the rush, O'Brien doesn't even have a RB screen in his playbook to take advantage.

Seems like a bad matchup for the Texans--bad run D, bad D in the middle, bad OL--all things the Bills have been winning against all year. Going from 66 sacks to 49 after all the draft picks used and traded is not much of a success, so Hyde better bring it tomorrow to open things up.
I sure hope BOB mixes up the running game a bit - give Hyde a chance to find some holes in the D instead of up-the-middle, up-the-middle, up-the-middle, up-the-middle, up-the-middle, up-the-middle, up-the-middle, up-the-middle, up-the-middle, up-the-middle, on and on and on...
 
And when they tee off on the rush, O'Brien doesn't even have a RB screen in his playbook to take advantage.


I sure hope BOB mixes up the running game a bit - give Hyde a chance to find some holes in the D instead of up-the-middle, up-the-middle, up-the-middle, up-the-middle, up-the-middle, up-the-middle, up-the-middle, up-the-middle, up-the-middle, up-the-middle, on and on and on...

Yeah, ever since BOB became HC, they've had success going outside. But those usually start as inside runs Lamar Miller and Hyde are forced to bounce outside as the speedy athletes they are.
 
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