TexanBorn51
All Pro
Anyone in favor of posting a who will win Texans Bills game poll? Someone around here mentioned it exist but have not found it. If so I would gladly vote for a Texans win.
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Wildcard Round - Bills at Texans
- Thread starter Seegara
- Start date
close as it gets I think
TexanBorn51
All Pro
Thank you Texanstalk and all the forum members here. I enjoy and appreciate it. It's been fun, a yearly blast, and very informative with all the Texans talk. I just donated to the cause. Happy Texans New Year!
FYI, this is not the definition of EP.
EP is Conception based. It has nothing to do with how routes are adjusted based on read. That happens more or less in every offense.
EP concepts is more about roles being defined & changed based on formation. In one formation a player may be the move TE, in another he is the Y receiver. In another he's the Z receiver. His responsibility is the same based on the concept (play) called. So you get the same play from different formations that look like different plays.
Think of Kubiak's offense where he wants everything to look the same to the defense but different for the QB. EP wants everything to look different to the defense, but the same to the QB.
Adjusting routes works the same in Denver, Philly, NE, San Francisco., etc...
powda
The bridge between stupid and useless is short.
I thought ep was based more on nomenclature.
CloakNNNdagger
Hall of Fame
We've lost our best man in the 2019 secondary (hard to believe, none of which were here in 2018).
Safety Tashaun Gipson has allowed a 47.4 passer rating in coverage.
CB Bradley Roby 79.4.
CB Keion Crossen 81.9.
Safety Jahleel Addae 90.8.
CB Gareon Conley 92.4.
Safety Tashaun Gipson has allowed a 47.4 passer rating in coverage.
CB Bradley Roby 79.4.
CB Keion Crossen 81.9.
Safety Jahleel Addae 90.8.
CB Gareon Conley 92.4.
The scripts been fine. It's the shooting ourselves in the foot that's been killing us.
Well we shoot ourselves in the foot, then turtle up.
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Then you have nothing to worry about this weekend.
The nomenclature communicates the concept.
CloakNNNdagger
Hall of Fame
PFF has Hopkins as the 4th best WR in the NFL..............he will be pitted against Bills White, who shadowed pretty closely last year............this year, White is ranked by PFF at 15th best CB and tied leading the NFL with 6 INTs...........Watson will need to leave his hesitation at home, and bring his best decision-making with him.
& O'Brien needs to utilize stacks & bunches
White has not allowed a td this year (hopefully I didnt jinx him, lol) Bills are primarily a zone team so White wont be on Hopkins all game if they move him around
edo783
Hall of Fame
he has a broken wrist and some sort of cracked vertibra in his back.
Seegara
Guitar Picker, Dog Lover, Woodworker
This sounds like a scouting report on the Bills. Since it comes from a Bills fan, I don't trust it for a minute.
Hopefully Bill O Brien doesnt either I hope to see Watson throw it 50 times tomorrow right at Tre White
ROO
Tweak the offense already!
The only screens O'Brien has in his playbook is the WR screen for no gain. Trust me, the Bills have nothing to worry about on screen passes.
Texansballer74
The Marine
Yeah we were resting injured players alright. Smh. 
austins23
Hall of Fame
And the RB's and TE's in the passing game!
Should be a crisp, cool, sunny day.
Roof will be closed.
Roof will be closed.
Those odds will fluctuate, because they're not bet up as much as games. Here is vegasinsiders.com's odds.
Not a lot of surprise (or value) here. Unless you think a literal shot in the arm (of Brady) could propel the Pats to another Super Bowl.
And here is listing for this weekend's games from various books:
TejasTom
All Pro
If there is, Bill O'Brien has it.
We don't even have grass, typical O'Brien.
I heard 54 snaps but I couldn't find snap counts past week 16.
austins23
Hall of Fame
"With their scheme and their players and how they coach it and how they play it, it's very difficult to get the ball downfield," O'Brien continued on the Bills defense. "It's very, very difficult.
Watch every pass play be a long developing 15-20 yard crossing pattern. smh
Speedy
Former Yeller Dweller
48 snaps (77%) last week for Gipson.
I thought the same thing. I guess "We will defend every rubber pellet" doesn't have the same ring to it.
CloakNNNdagger
Hall of Fame
Those odds will fluctuate, because they're not bet up as much as games. Here is vegasinsiders.com's odds.
Not a lot of surprise (or value) here. Unless you think a literal shot in the arm (of Brady) could propel the Pats to another Super Bowl.
And here is listing for this weekend's games from various books:
So Vegas has the Texans at even odds with Tenn / Buff …. as compared to that other dude having them below both ?
Doesn't look like Vegas is giving Seattle any respect at 40/1 …. seems like some value there ? I don't know their current injury situation or why they have them so low …. That's a team that can beat anyone at any given time.
The odds for most of the wildcard round teams are pretty much zilch. Not a lot of money on these teams to move the line.
If Seattle were playing like they were earlier in the season, the odds would be different. Losing their RB hurts a lot.
If I had to make a bet, I would put money on the Saints @ 6/1. I think they have the most answers. And luck will eventually swing their way. But potentially playing 2 road games to get to Miami is not an enviable road.
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TexanBorn51
All Pro
Arizona Cardinals to beat Steelers 2008 super bowl was 45 - 1 odds. The Cardinals went and won the superbowl. I happened to be there in a casino in Vegas that day
DanielTx
Chosen one
Cardinals lost that sb.
But if you were holding that Cardinals to win ticket, you probably covered your bet with the Steelers.
TexanBorn51
All Pro
Sorry to get to the superbiwl 45-1 my bad
DanielTx
Chosen one
what
I think you had it right the first time.
2009 NFL Futures Odds From Early 2008 to Win Super Bowl XLIII in 2009. NFL football future odds Super Bowl 43. Pro football betting odds.
Super Bowl odds 2009. NFL future odds to win Super Bowl 43, February 1, 2009, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida, at the beginning of the season. Las Vegas pro football Super Bowl XLIII futures odds before the season. NFL betting odds Super Bowl XLIII.www.footballlocks.com
| Team | Super Bowl XLIII (43) Historical Odds Futures (Money odds on a $100 bet) | |
| Arizona Cardinals | +$4,500 |
TexanBorn51
All Pro
i didnt check facts all I know I was workin in Az and went to vegas that weekend. The Cardinals that year were not even expected to make the playoffs
TexanBorn51
All Pro
Wow cool find i have senior moments here help me out lol thx
Randall Flagg
Practice Squad
Hello friends, another Bills fan here.
First, I have to say this: I read the message boards of our opponents' fan bases every single week, and this is, bar none, the most level-headed and highest quality football talk I've seen this season. An excellent forum.
This is only my second time ever watching Bills playoff football, as I began watching in 2004. It's the first time that I have thought we were good enough to have a chance at winning the game. I see our teams as fairly even, with opposite strengths and weaknesses. Obviously, your offense blows ours out of the water, and our defense has the edge over yours. I'm hoping our defense travels this weekend, because Watson, Fuller, and Hopkins terrify me, and every time I caught a Texans game this year the TE(s) seemed important. That is a lot of bodies to be able to cover, and we're thin at DB with Wallace limping around this week.
I'm curious about the special teams matchup - ours has lost us games vs NE and @ CLE, and has scraped by despite terrible performances another game or two. The remaining games, it feels like they are barely competent, and shaky while doing it. Our punter broke a franchise record for punts inside the 20, and yet it feels like he didn't get one inside the 15 all year, no matter the starting point of the punt. And he regularly shanks them at the absolute worst possible time. Hauschka hasn't been the same kicker since he got injured by a cheap shot vs. the Jets last season, I don't want him kicking anything further away than 47 yards. If you guys have good special teams, I could see that being the difference in the game, if your defense bends as much as your offense lights it up. I could also see your defense holding against our mediocre offense, with our defense having a good day. In either case, special teams would become important.
Those CB rankings (Tre White at 15 or whatever) show how silly PFF can be. The man leads the league in interceptions at the position and hasn't allowed a touchdown all season, and has the second lowest QBR against since 2017. And PFF doesn't seem to notice that we play coverage zone defense, and that a lot of his yards given up are while doing this in garbage time to kill clock. He's a stud. But like the other Bills fan said, he won't necessarily line up on any one receiver because we usually play zone, give up the short stuff, and bet on our opponents making a mistake at some point along the drive. Our last game in Texas, on Thanksgiving, was the perfect example of this strategy working. The NE game two weeks ago was the perfect example of its limitations. I think Watson is a very smart QB, and am worried that he will happily take the dink and dunk stuff down the field on long, crippling drives.
This is also the best opposition fan analysis of Josh Allen that I've seen. The narrative on him changes by the month, as he's really grown fast. Turnovers were the main story on him until week 5. Analysts on TV still pretend it's the main story. But he's only thrown 3 picks in his last 12 games, and lost 2 fumbles. This gives him a 23/5 Total TD/Total Turnover split in that span (and one of those games he only played 2 series, last week). They also talk about his accuracy issues, but that's a dated view of his problems and doesn't really describe him, well, accurately. When his feet are set, or he's rolling right, he's absurdly accurate. When he gets panicky and pumped up, his footwork is bad and his throws sail because of that. Right now, the things he needs to work on most are settling down, especially early, and reading the field better both pre-and-post snap. Cover 0 looks still confuse him, though he consistently beat it for the first time in his career 2 weeks ago. The stretch of football he played in November was tantalizing, against Miami, Denver, and Dallas. After that, a superficial look at the stats shows regression, but in reality he had pretty solid games against Baltimore, NE, and @Pittsburgh, which are obviously tough defenses. I'm hopeful that against yours he can look like he did in the previous three games. I wouldn't worry too much about deep shots. The early string of INTs has essentially made it impossible for him to not overthrow guys deep, as he's too scared of turnovers. Like his near-miraculous improvement in mid range (10-20 yards) throws over last offseason (he was horrendous there last year, and through a large chunk of this season had the best passer rating in the league on these throws, and is still top ~5 last I checked), I expect an improvement in this, but not until he gets a lot of offseason reps. We're excited about him. We hope that someday soon he can look like Watson does for you guys. I have so much respect for Deshaun, and if we lose, it's going to be because of him. I think he could win a super bowl this year, though I'm not sure your defense is quite yet up to the task.
I was happy to draw the Texans, because if we lose, I'll hold no ill will, it'll be easy to move on to next year. I like your team and almost always find myself rooting for them, especiallly since they give NE a hard time lately. If you guys move on, I'll be pulling for you from the AFC. Good luck and I hope it's a fantastic football game.
First, I have to say this: I read the message boards of our opponents' fan bases every single week, and this is, bar none, the most level-headed and highest quality football talk I've seen this season. An excellent forum.
This is only my second time ever watching Bills playoff football, as I began watching in 2004. It's the first time that I have thought we were good enough to have a chance at winning the game. I see our teams as fairly even, with opposite strengths and weaknesses. Obviously, your offense blows ours out of the water, and our defense has the edge over yours. I'm hoping our defense travels this weekend, because Watson, Fuller, and Hopkins terrify me, and every time I caught a Texans game this year the TE(s) seemed important. That is a lot of bodies to be able to cover, and we're thin at DB with Wallace limping around this week.
I'm curious about the special teams matchup - ours has lost us games vs NE and @ CLE, and has scraped by despite terrible performances another game or two. The remaining games, it feels like they are barely competent, and shaky while doing it. Our punter broke a franchise record for punts inside the 20, and yet it feels like he didn't get one inside the 15 all year, no matter the starting point of the punt. And he regularly shanks them at the absolute worst possible time. Hauschka hasn't been the same kicker since he got injured by a cheap shot vs. the Jets last season, I don't want him kicking anything further away than 47 yards. If you guys have good special teams, I could see that being the difference in the game, if your defense bends as much as your offense lights it up. I could also see your defense holding against our mediocre offense, with our defense having a good day. In either case, special teams would become important.
Those CB rankings (Tre White at 15 or whatever) show how silly PFF can be. The man leads the league in interceptions at the position and hasn't allowed a touchdown all season, and has the second lowest QBR against since 2017. And PFF doesn't seem to notice that we play coverage zone defense, and that a lot of his yards given up are while doing this in garbage time to kill clock. He's a stud. But like the other Bills fan said, he won't necessarily line up on any one receiver because we usually play zone, give up the short stuff, and bet on our opponents making a mistake at some point along the drive. Our last game in Texas, on Thanksgiving, was the perfect example of this strategy working. The NE game two weeks ago was the perfect example of its limitations. I think Watson is a very smart QB, and am worried that he will happily take the dink and dunk stuff down the field on long, crippling drives.
This is also the best opposition fan analysis of Josh Allen that I've seen. The narrative on him changes by the month, as he's really grown fast. Turnovers were the main story on him until week 5. Analysts on TV still pretend it's the main story. But he's only thrown 3 picks in his last 12 games, and lost 2 fumbles. This gives him a 23/5 Total TD/Total Turnover split in that span (and one of those games he only played 2 series, last week). They also talk about his accuracy issues, but that's a dated view of his problems and doesn't really describe him, well, accurately. When his feet are set, or he's rolling right, he's absurdly accurate. When he gets panicky and pumped up, his footwork is bad and his throws sail because of that. Right now, the things he needs to work on most are settling down, especially early, and reading the field better both pre-and-post snap. Cover 0 looks still confuse him, though he consistently beat it for the first time in his career 2 weeks ago. The stretch of football he played in November was tantalizing, against Miami, Denver, and Dallas. After that, a superficial look at the stats shows regression, but in reality he had pretty solid games against Baltimore, NE, and @Pittsburgh, which are obviously tough defenses. I'm hopeful that against yours he can look like he did in the previous three games. I wouldn't worry too much about deep shots. The early string of INTs has essentially made it impossible for him to not overthrow guys deep, as he's too scared of turnovers. Like his near-miraculous improvement in mid range (10-20 yards) throws over last offseason (he was horrendous there last year, and through a large chunk of this season had the best passer rating in the league on these throws, and is still top ~5 last I checked), I expect an improvement in this, but not until he gets a lot of offseason reps. We're excited about him. We hope that someday soon he can look like Watson does for you guys. I have so much respect for Deshaun, and if we lose, it's going to be because of him. I think he could win a super bowl this year, though I'm not sure your defense is quite yet up to the task.
I was happy to draw the Texans, because if we lose, I'll hold no ill will, it'll be easy to move on to next year. I like your team and almost always find myself rooting for them, especiallly since they give NE a hard time lately. If you guys move on, I'll be pulling for you from the AFC. Good luck and I hope it's a fantastic football game.
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austins23
Hall of Fame
And oh boy, ABC/ESPN is trotting out Tessitore and Booger to call the game! Ugh, I may have to sync the TV to the radio feed. These two guys are bad.
An actual quote from Booger on a Monday night game this year, "If the ***** can outscore the ******, they will win this game.
An actual quote from Booger on a Monday night game this year, "If the ***** can outscore the ******, they will win this game.
Randall, Texans fans can relate to eating a HOF QB's dust, year after year. Watching Peyton rule the AFC South was frustrating. And then, the Colts replace him with Luck. Urgh. Hopefully, these teams will feel the same pain as our QBs emerge as the dominant force in their respective divisions.
There's something about Monday Night that brings out the stupid in announcers. Here's a true story from a tad over 40 years ago.
It was a windy Monday night in Miami, 1979, when Bum Phillips' Oilers came to town to face Don Shula's Dolphins. A classic defensive struggle, where only the teams playing with the wind had scored. And only field goals at that. At the end of the 3rd quarter, the Oilers were up 9-3, and the Dolphins would have the wind in the 4th.
Long time MNF color guy, and ex-Cowboy QB, Don Meredith was famous for singing a verse from Willie Nelson's tune, The Party's Over, whenever a game got out of hand. Meredith sang the verse at the beginning of the 4th quarter.
Turn out the lights
The party's over
They say that all
Good things must end
Call it a night
The party's over
And tomorrow starts
The same old thing again
Meredith was singing the song to the Oilers. Whom had the lead. With a quarter remaining. I'm not kidding.
The Oilers won the game, 9-6.
ROO
Tweak the offense already!
I bet you say that to all the opposing team's fans!
Seriously - good post and good commentary, thank you. I'm looking forward to Saturday for sure. Of course I am hoping for a Texans win, but if the Bills advance, I'll be rooting for them in the playoffs.
One stat that astonished me is that it was the first opening drive in Texans franchise history of 15 or more plays with a TD.
yeah that surprised me as well. I would have thought back in the Kubiak era that would have been fairly common, those teams in the good years scored on a lot of opening drives if I recall.
TxnsJuggernaut1
Veteran
Well said. Nothing I disagree with.
Randall Flagg
Practice Squad
Ha!
You'd think all fans would be roughly the same in fairly large groups, but I find that rarely to be the case. The Jets fan forum is horrendous, 90% of the words typed are swear words. Browns fans were thrilled that Garrett assaulted a man. Pats fans are literally the most jaded and miserable fans I've come across, and are actually starting to realize how their unprecedented run of success has robbed them of the enjoyment that the rest of the fan bases get from all games before the AFCCG. Broncos fans were convinced they were going to mop us, the sole difference between the teams being strength of schedule, and instead their Allen threw for 85 yards and went three and out about 15 times, scoring 3 points.The Bills forum is great, but you have to sift through a high volume of junk, especially in weeks after losses. This one is cozy and, from what I've seen, incredibly level and measured.
Seegara
Guitar Picker, Dog Lover, Woodworker
The Texans may not be the greatest, but they're not as bad as they would be if they weren't as good as they are.
ROO
Tweak the offense already!
I have visited a couple other team's message boards, will admit that they were "over-the-top" with swearing and negativity. TexansTalk and its members are more, well, "cerebral" than those other sites. Lots of smart folks here that do good analysis and provide lots of info. Most of the negativity here concerns O'Brien and his apparent lack of understanding of how to use the offensive weapons he has. (I'll add that the criticism is deserved.)
Thanks for stopping by, I appreciate you taking the time to give us your thoughts.
Seegara
Guitar Picker, Dog Lover, Woodworker
You should have seen the forum this one replaced. It was called the Bull Pen and to say it was horrid would be a compliment. It comprised 90% of the posters calling each other, and the other 10%, trolls.
Some (a lot?) has migrated here when that one closed down
austins23
Hall of Fame
Ain't this the truth
BOBdaFRAUD
Waterboy
This team owe us good football after what happened with the colts last year....... hope ALL folks play with EFFORT and not bugged eyed with a stick up the butt like last year.