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Who's your quarterback - 2015 v2.0

potentially we can still fall as low as 32

but I think we are matematically out of the top 10

Teams which WILL draft before us:

1. Tennessee 2-13
2. Tampa Bay 2-13
3. Oakland 3-12
4. Jacksonville 3-12
5. NY Jets 3-12
6. Washington 4-11
7. Chicago 5-10
8. New Orleans 5-10
9. NY Giants 6-9
10. Atlanta 6-9
11, St, Louis 6-9
12. Minnesota 6-9
13. Carolina 6-8-1

We probably lose the tiebreaker with Cleveland and possibly with San Francisco while one of Atlanta, New Orleans and Carolina have to get into the playoffs and lose their spot in the order.

I think 16-19 is a better estimate.
 
Teams which WILL draft before us:

1. Tennessee 2-13
2. Tampa Bay 2-13
3. Oakland 3-12
4. Jacksonville 3-12
5. NY Jets 3-12
6. Washington 4-11
7. Chicago 5-10
8. New Orleans 5-10
9. NY Giants 6-9
10. Atlanta 6-9
11, St, Louis 6-9
12. Minnesota 6-9
13. Carolina 6-8-1

We probably lose the tiebreaker with Cleveland and possibly with San Francisco while one of Atlanta, New Orleans and Carolina have to get into the playoffs and lose their spot in the order.

I think 16-19 is a better estimate.

I'm still hoping for a 21-25 spot :D

:koolaid:
 
2008: Texans have #26 (Duane Brown)
Ryan 1-3
Flacco 1-18

Giving yourself the benefit of hindsight, which of these QB's would you have drafted in the first round instead of the player that was drafted. And how would you have realistically traded up to make that happen?

2008 with Ryan and Flacco, but there was no way Texans were moving from #26 to get Ryan, and Flacco wasn't Flacco until the SB run so not sure that move at the time would have been worth the risk.

...but if the conversation is that the Texans never go big in the first round to invest in a QB, I'd say they never had an opportunity to pick someone who would have made a difference.

Don't forget that Joe Flacco was OUR pick, we traded down with the Ravens to pass on him for Brown. So no trade up was necessary. Our franchise QB was staring at us in the face, but once again our history of horrible GMs struck again while the much more superior GM named Ozzie caught us looking lost.

Everyone hates on Flacco so hard cause he doesn't produce consistent 5000 yard 40 TD seasons, but the dude doesn't have to, that's the thing. The guy is a winner, he does what it takes to win the football game. In the 2012 Super Bowl season, he had to bomb it out to win those games and he did, but the guy still has a 0.692 playoff record. You don't stumble upon those just getting carried and getting lucky. That's the same playoff win % as Tom Brady, barely under Joe Montana, and above John Elway. People can hate on him cause his team was dissolved in 2013, but I will never understand or get behind it.
 
I don't know when the Texans will draft, but whenever it is I'm going to have a firm grasp on my computer. If the team does the unthinkable and drafts a quarterback in the first round, there will be so many 180 degree turnarounds on the wisdom of that approach my laptop might very well go spinning across the room from the force.
 
Don't forget that Joe Flacco was OUR pick, we traded down with the Ravens to pass on him for Brown. So no trade up was necessary. Our franchise QB was staring at us in the face, but once again our history of horrible GMs struck again while the much more superior GM named Ozzie caught us looking lost.

Everyone hates on Flacco so hard cause he doesn't produce consistent 5000 yard 40 TD seasons, but the dude doesn't have to, that's the thing. The guy is a winner, he does what it takes to win the football game. In the 2012 Super Bowl season, he had to bomb it out to win those games and he did, but the guy still has a 0.692 playoff record. You don't stumble upon those just getting carried and getting lucky. That's the same playoff win % as Tom Brady, barely under Joe Montana, and above John Elway. People can hate on him cause his team was dissolved in 2013, but I will never understand or get behind it.

I don't think you can put that totally on Smith. We had just traded for Schaub and LOT was far and away our biggest need.
 
This is all just my uneducated opinion, feel free to disagree.

Talking QBs in 2015 I think I finally get my wish...

Rick Smith fired. He is gonna pay Ryan Mallett some BS 4 year / $ 60 MM contract and Mallett is gonna prove to be mediocre at best. Because of the cap situation we are put in I think we finally give Andre Johnson his wish and allow him to be traded and save us almost $10 MM against the cap to afford Mallett's contract. Mallet will make sure his agent isn't stupid enough to offer him a Collin Kaep contract and is gonna get paid in year's 1 and 2 before he's eligible to be cut.

With no receiving threats outside of Hopkins, NFL teams easily take away the passing game and stifle the ground game. Texans are forced to rely on JJ Watt to get a pick 6 or sack fumble recovery 6 every game to have a chance in every game they play, which is a completely asinine strategy that can only work on teams like the Titans, Jags, Redskins, and Raiders. 6 of our 9 wins (yes, I'm giving us week 17 in advance) against 4 teams with COMBINED 12 wins. We won't be so fortunate next year and will be lucky to win 5 games (and that's only cause we play dumpster fire NFC South next year).

Then we can FINALLY get a good GM and begin actually building a winner.

I don't think you can put that totally on Smith. We had just traded for Schaub and LOT was far and away our biggest need.

Can and will. I know what they did in 2007. I hated it then, started to come around to it, then realized again why I hate trading away future picks and getting married to a 3rd round unproven QB prospect and considering the position "taken care of". At least as a franchise we will never make that mistake again though. What round was Mallett drafted in again?
 
Now onto my "best case scenario, dark sunglasses blinders fan" scenario...

I obviously want Conner Cook from MSU, but our draft pick is going to prohibit this. Rick Smith is gonna need to dig deep to get the GM balls to trade up 5+ slots to grab Cook before another team with a good GM does.

Cook's draft stock is gonna be made on New Year's Day against a high octane offense in Baylor. If that guy puts up 400 yards and 4 TDs in a win, all the MSU fans can kiss that notion of him coming back for "unfinished business" out the window. He's gonna receive a top 15 grade and head for the NFL. I don't see the need for QB in many of the teams ahead of us outside the top 7, except the Rams who still have Bradford under contract in 2015, so I think there is a chance he slips to around 10ish.

If we are picking at 17 we CAN NOT sit on our hands and hope this guy slips. It's gotta be cold and calculated and done with not enough time for our trade partner to find someone to counter our offer against, but we are gonna need to make that trade and get this guy.

If we don't get Cook, just get ready for the Mallett resigning and stock up on beer to get super drunk at each tailgate before you go into the games. This is all just my opinion and I've been wrong before though. If Cook bombs in the bowl game though this scenario is likely dead to rights on January 2nd once the dust settles.
 
Don't forget that Joe Flacco was OUR pick, we traded down with the Ravens to pass on him for Brown. So no trade up was necessary. Our franchise QB was staring at us in the face, but once again our history of horrible GMs struck again while the much more superior GM named Ozzie caught us looking lost.

Everyone hates on Flacco so hard cause he doesn't produce consistent 5000 yard 40 TD seasons, but the dude doesn't have to, that's the thing. The guy is a winner, he does what it takes to win the football game. In the 2012 Super Bowl season, he had to bomb it out to win those games and he did, but the guy still has a 0.692 playoff record. You don't stumble upon those just getting carried and getting lucky. That's the same playoff win % as Tom Brady, barely under Joe Montana, and above John Elway. People can hate on him cause his team was dissolved in 2013, but I will never understand or get behind it.

Thanks for that gloomy bit of Texans history. I wouldn't mind having Flacco on the team, given his complete body of work.

...Flacco wasn't Flacco until the SB run so not sure that move at the time would have been worth the risk.

No successful NFL quarterback is a successful NFL quarterback on draft day. This goes for all positions; they are all a risk at some level. Teams obviously don't get to watch a player develop and then redo the draft with known commodities.
 
Correct in both statements. So you are absolutely certain there is no risk in going into next season with Mallett, Fitzgerald, Savage/Keenum? What do you think that makes them - winning record contenders (I do), playoff contenders (I do), a threat to go deep in the playoffs (I don't). I have one caveat though, and it's a big one - that Mallett is as good as everyone hopes. If not, it is 7-9 through 9-7 mediocrity and no chance at winning the division. In addition, Foster will ave another year of wear and tear, and JJ will be a year older.

I'm not sure, are you sure any drafted QB in next yrs draft which isn't particularly strong at QB will produce the Texans franchise QB of the future?

The reason I think that Mallett is the future is that BOB thinks he can win with Mallett after having a 4 yr relationship. The game against the Browns put Mallett in a positive light also. IMHO

In short if Mallett had been traded for before OTA's and not gotten hurt, he would've been 2-3 wins better than Fitz and the Texans would not only be in the playoffs but be AFC championship winners this yr.
 
I don't think you can put that totally on Smith. We had just traded for Schaub and LOT was far and away our biggest need.

So you are a "best player at a position of need within tiers of talent" rather than a "best player available" person? I lose track of those that defend the Clowney pick because "you should never* draft for need but always draft BPA".

*never being demonstrably false.

I personally think BPA is a trope that should be retired anyway.
 
So you are a "best player at a position of need within tiers of talent" rather than a "best player available" person? I lose track of those that defend the Clowney pick because "you should never* draft for need but always draft BPA".

*never being demonstrably false.

I personally think BPA is a trope that should be retired anyway.

I was just relating a bit of history. I remember we all wanted an OT and many were pissed that Smith traded down and we got stuck with some smuck that many didn't feel 1st round worthy. But he was Gibbs choice, and Gibbs was going to finally get our line fixed
 
In short if Mallett had been traded for before OTA's and not gotten hurt, he would've been 2-3 wins better than Fitz and the Texans would not only be in the playoffs but be AFC championship winners this yr.

I'm so bad at identifying sarcasm online, but if this is not just that....

horse_with_blinders_1788218-1pm9m4b.jpg


So you are a "best player at a position of need within tiers of talent" rather than a "best player available" person? I lose track of those that defend the Clowney pick because "you should never* draft for need but always draft BPA".

*never being demonstrably false.

I personally think BPA is a trope that should be retired anyway.

:perfect10:
 
I'm not sure, are you sure any drafted QB in next yrs draft which isn't particularly strong at QB will produce the Texans franchise QB of the future?

Of course I'm not sure. I've always stated that a first round talent evaluated quarterback is a 50/50 risk, but one worth taking. If I made 100% positive blanket statements about the success rate of first round quarterbacks I'd look just as naive to reality as those that claim that first round quarterbacks always fail or aren't any more likely to succeed that late rounders.

To me the argument is if the risk is worth taking, not if the risk exists. The latter argument makes its appearance usually as a strawman set up by those opposed to using a first round pick on a quarterback by twisting words because it is so easy to knock down.

The reason I think that Mallett is the future is that BOB thinks he can win with Mallett after having a 4 yr relationship. The game against the Browns put Mallett in a positive light also. IMHO

I get this, and if Mallett is the guy it solves a lot of problems. O'Brien is a professional coach and knows more than we do, backed up by a professional staff who also knows more than we do. However, there are other professional coaches with other professional staffs that don't always do things the Texans way. I understand having confidence in your team's approach to things, but I don't follow the Texans lead blindly. I still remember the "the right way" mantra from the Kubiak years. "Right way" being defined as what the Texans did, but being treated as the transcendent truth about the approach to building a football team by Smithiak fans.
 
And that is why I asked the question



What do we do, where are we at if Mallett is not the guy. I think he is. But I'm hoping that an "in case" plan.

Do we ignore qb completely now? Do we look for another gun to groom?
Do we build up our team around the QB so that a game manager like Fitz can lead us to the promised land?

I'm just trying to play a little devils advocate to both the side that thinks Mallett is it and the side that thinks we should sacrifice to try to get the best QB in the draft now.

Mallett is the guy who has already been groomed. If Mallett's not the guy Savage is the guy that BOB is currently grooming. In this scenario I would suspect that BOB would also be looking at drafting a QB high in the 2016 draft.
 
Matt Schaub was an over achieving 3rd who had the opportunity to sit for 3 years. That is not the performance you can expect out of 3rd round QBs generally.

Ryan Mallett with a better arm?

It's time to give Mallett a chance and not expect him to be Tom Brady in his 2nd start. Brady then wasn't the Brady of now in his 2nd NFL start.
 
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Now onto my "best case scenario, dark sunglasses blinders fan" scenario...

I obviously want Conner Cook from MSU, but our draft pick is going to prohibit this. Rick Smith is gonna need to dig deep to get the GM balls to trade up 5+ slots to grab Cook before another team with a good GM does.

Cook's draft stock is gonna be made on New Year's Day against a high octane offense in Baylor. If that guy puts up 400 yards and 4 TDs in a win, all the MSU fans can kiss that notion of him coming back for "unfinished business" out the window. He's gonna receive a top 15 grade and head for the NFL. I don't see the need for QB in many of the teams ahead of us outside the top 7, except the Rams who still have Bradford under contract in 2015, so I think there is a chance he slips to around 10ish.

If we are picking at 17 we CAN NOT sit on our hands and hope this guy slips. It's gotta be cold and calculated and done with not enough time for our trade partner to find someone to counter our offer against, but we are gonna need to make that trade and get this guy.

If we don't get Cook, just get ready for the Mallett resigning and stock up on beer to get super drunk at each tailgate before you go into the games. This is all just my opinion and I've been wrong before though. If Cook bombs in the bowl game though this scenario is likely dead to rights on January 2nd once the dust settles.

Cook has stated within the past week that he intends to go back to MSU for another season. Still time to change his mind, but unless/until that happens, he's not a consideration for anybody - much less the Texans.
 
I don't think this franchise could have drafted him because of the history .... He does have talent. Prototypical size , good mobility , good accuracy and pocket awareness. He escaped the game against the Texans without being sacked if my memory is correct.



I remember the Superbowl .... PeyMeATon chasing down that snap.
But that wasn't the same as Savages mistake(s). That one was on the center , these were on Savage.

I like to watch Manning .... Lose. I really hate that guy .... because he doesn't play for my team.

On the 1st snap of Savage's career. He had a case of the nerves. It happens, I'm not going to make a judgement on Savage's career on that 1 play anymore than I'm going to judge Savage's career on the beautifully thrown bomb that he threw to Posey.

Are you?
 
So, shouldn't we concentrate building the best team around that guy for now? Our defense and defensive depth is not that far away. Should the conversation be Who is our next FS, or CB, or ILB that is going to take this defense up a notch? Or maybe solidify the OL ala the Cowboys?

I really don't know, but I dont like relying on luck to carry us to the promised land. I want to see the Texans with a ring before I die.

Yes.

We should be drafting the best players we can get our hands on so that we have the best team possible. I wouldn't mind being the next team to win a SB based on great defense.
 
Cook has stated within the past week that he intends to go back to MSU for another season. Still time to change his mind, but unless/until that happens, he's not a consideration for anybody - much less the Texans.

Lot of guys talk before the season ends and they receive their draft grades. Bortles wasn't coming out either last year (or at least "on the fence") until he received his draft grade after he had the best 2nd half of his life in the Fiesta Bowl.

Give it time. If he does play out of his mind in a win and then goes back for his Senior season I will admit I was wrong, but more often than not money (draft grade) and time away from the team are the ultimate deciding factors in these matters.
 
So you are a "best player at a position of need within tiers of talent" rather than a "best player available" person? I lose track of those that defend the Clowney pick because "you should never* draft for need but always draft BPA".

*never being demonstrably false.

I personally think BPA is a trope that should be retired anyway.

I propose we change that with:

"You should never draft for need but always draft the most valuable player available"

btw those that say you shold draft BPA are the same that won't vote WATT because he is not as valuable as a QB even tho he is a better player
 
So I was looking at the Top 20 rated QB's this season:

6 x #1 draft pick
6 x #3-#11 draft picks
1 x #18
1 x #24
1 x #32
1 x 3rd Rounder
1 x 4th Rounder
3 x 6th Rounder or below (including UDFA)

So clearly, the odds state that if you get a QB in the 1st round, you've got a pretty good shot.

Nope. You're doing the math wrong AND you're casting a very wide net.

First off, if you're looking at the "top 20" rated passers this year, you're going to be including players that a lot of us wouldn't be happy with. Also, are you looking yardage or passer rating or QBR or what?

If you're looking at Yards, then Fitzy is 25th right now even though he's missed several games and if you'd looked a week or two ago, you'd have been including him in your search.

Secondly, when you're looking at those players and seeing that 6 of the top 20 were drafted in the first round, you're not looking at how many players were drafted in the first round to get those 6 players.

I'm going to assume that Peyton Manning is the oldest of these QBs and I'll just go back to 1998. Since 1998, there have been 48 QBs taken in the first round. Of those, only 6 have survived to 2014 and are in the top 20 in passing.

That's 32 whiffs and a 12.5% chance of success and about 2.8 QBs selected in the first round every year.

And when you think about 1st round draft picks at QB, they are given every opportunity to prove themselves; they are carefully groomed and developed; they're given more chances. QBs in later rounds are more-or-less thrown against the wall to see if they stick.

So just taking a QB in the 1st round because the 1st round is more represented in a top yardage list only gives you a 12.5% chance of getting the right guy.

:uprights:
 
Now onto my "best case scenario, dark sunglasses blinders fan" scenario...

I obviously want Conner Cook from MSU, but our draft pick is going to prohibit this. Rick Smith is gonna need to dig deep to get the GM balls to trade up 5+ slots to grab Cook before another team with a good GM does.

Cook's draft stock is gonna be made on New Year's Day against a high octane offense in Baylor. If that guy puts up 400 yards and 4 TDs in a win, all the MSU fans can kiss that notion of him coming back for "unfinished business" out the window. He's gonna receive a top 15 grade and head for the NFL. I don't see the need for QB in many of the teams ahead of us outside the top 7, except the Rams who still have Bradford under contract in 2015, so I think there is a chance he slips to around 10ish.

If we are picking at 17 we CAN NOT sit on our hands and hope this guy slips. It's gotta be cold and calculated and done with not enough time for our trade partner to find someone to counter our offer against, but we are gonna need to make that trade and get this guy.

If we don't get Cook, just get ready for the Mallett resigning and stock up on beer to get super drunk at each tailgate before you go into the games. This is all just my opinion and I've been wrong before though. If Cook bombs in the bowl game though this scenario is likely dead to rights on January 2nd once the dust settles.

What have you seen in Mallett's 2 game as a pro that makes you have so little hope?

Lack of arm strength? (Unlike Schaub) Lack of ability to read defenses? (Like Schaub Lack of Mobility? (Like Schaub?) Just wondering why you are so down on BOB's QB choice?
 
Of course I'm not sure. I've always stated that a first round talent evaluated quarterback is a 50/50 risk, but one worth taking. If I made 100% positive blanket statements about the success rate of first round quarterbacks I'd look just as naive to reality as those that claim that first round quarterbacks always fail or aren't any more likely to succeed that late rounders.

To me the argument is if the risk is worth taking, not if the risk exists. The latter argument makes its appearance usually as a strawman set up by those opposed to using a first round pick on a quarterback by twisting words because it is so easy to knock down.

I see what you're saying. But we don't all fit in those two groups. Before the 2014 draft, I'd been saying the grading system is screwed up. Guys who would be, should be considered first round picks were barely being talked about, but they were hyping up guys that should have been late first, early second round guys. For whatever reason.

People argued about my grading system, but it's the "system" that picked all the other 1st round QBs in the past, the ones that are doing well in the NFL now. From Peyton Manning to Andrew Luck. Guys who go in the top five should look like them & have comparable college careers.

You have to stretch the truth to make Bridgewater look like Rodgers, or Bortles to look like Rothlisberger, or Manziel to look like an NFL starting QB.

Not so much with Mettenberger, or McCarron, or Murray.

Too much was made of mobility & athleticism, I think because of the success of Griffin & Kaepernick, which don't look so good any more.

Mariota is a heck of a talent... but he isn't anything like Phillip Rivers, Matthew Stafford, Sam Bradford, or Andrew Luck. I know those guys haven't accomplished much in the NFL, but those are prototypical guys that warranted a #1 overall pick. & I'm glad we don't have the #1 overall pick, because I'd hate to have to argue using it on him. Outside the top ten, I don't have a problem.

If Tennessee passes on a QB next year, we'll get to see how Mettenberger does compared to Blake, on a pretty even playing field.

I get this, and if Mallett is the guy it solves a lot of problems. O'Brien is a professional coach and knows more than we do, backed up by a professional staff who also knows more than we do. However, there are other professional coaches with other professional staffs that don't always do things the Texans way. I understand having confidence in your team's approach to things, but I don't follow the Texans lead blindly. I still remember the "the right way" mantra from the Kubiak years. "Right way" being defined as what the Texans did, but being treated as the transcendent truth about the approach to building a football team by Smithiak fans.

I think most NFL coaches/teams have no idea how to develop a QB. They draft them high & throw them to the wolves, to see what happens. Kubiak, I think, was different. OB, so far looks to be different. I feel better with those guys & third round QBs than I do most teams with 1st rounders.
 
Of course I'm not sure. I've always stated that a first round talent evaluated quarterback is a 50/50 risk, but one worth taking. If I made 100% positive blanket statements about the success rate of first round quarterbacks I'd look just as naive to reality as those that claim that first round quarterbacks always fail or aren't any more likely to succeed that late rounders.

To me the argument is if the risk is worth taking, not if the risk exists. The latter argument makes its appearance usually as a strawman set up by those opposed to using a first round pick on a quarterback by twisting words because it is so easy to knock down.



I get this, and if Mallett is the guy it solves a lot of problems. O'Brien is a professional coach and knows more than we do, backed up by a professional staff who also knows more than we do. However, there are other professional coaches with other professional staffs that don't always do things the Texans way. I understand having confidence in your team's approach to things, but I don't follow the Texans lead blindly. I still remember the "the right way" mantra from the Kubiak years. "Right way" being defined as what the Texans did, but being treated as the transcendent truth about the approach to building a football team by Smithiak fans.

I'm in agreement with this post.

The difference is

1. BOB has worked with Mallett for yrs. Kubiak hadn't worked with Schaub before. That should give fans some level of comfort.
2. BOB is a better HC than Kubiak was after 8 yrs on the job. IMHO The future is bright. IMHO I trust BOB's judgement a lot more than I ever did Kubiak's. Look at the staff of assistants BOB has assembled fas an example. BOB is comfortable enough in his on shoes to hire a vet DC who used to be a HC. The only time this happened when Kubiak was HC was when Wade was forced down his throat by McNair.

Bottom line is

1. Do you trust BOB's judgement in QB's
2. Do you think Mallett can be a franchise QB

I vote affirmative on both of these questions
 
I'm so bad at identifying sarcasm online, but if this is not just that....

horse_with_blinders_1788218-1pm9m4b.jpg




:perfect10:

I didn't know you were a Fitz fan. So you don't think that Mallet could've won a couple of those 6 close losses that Fitz couldn't just quite get the team over the top for a win? If that's the case then you have very little faith in Mallett and QB must be 1st and foremost on your draft list.

I'm a big believer in BPA. Not what Smith & co hve been doing, which is BPA at position of need.
 
And you know this how?

We don't know, yet, what strategy OB and Smith are going to take with our QB position. We've all made our assessments and have our suspicions but we don't know.

I personally think Mallett is going to be a very good QB but that's just my opinion and I know a lot of people think he's a stinking piece of crap. And they could be right.

But we don't know what OB thinks and we don't know how he's going to handle this.

They might give Mallett the keys. They might give Savage a shot to win the job. They might give Keenum and Fitzy another shot.

But they might fall in love with some guy in the draft and make a huge trade to go get him.

The QB situation has to be fixed for this team to make the next step. I don't think OB is so stupid that he doesn't realize that.

Well said, man. I'm like you with optimism about Mallett. We will know their QB strategy soon enough if either a deal is announced with Mallett, or, if they let him hit the FA market. I suspect the former based on what we know about the history of O'Brien and Mallett.

We gotta get lucky and find one of those abnormal guys you are talking about .... Or we'll be doing what the Cleveland Browns did for a decade.

Man, that's a gruesome thought.

However, I think we've got a better owner than the Browns, and personally, I think O'Brien will ultimately prove to be a better coach than anyone the Browns have had since Belichick (who was really working for the now Ravens franchise).

Being in QB purgatory is one of the worst feelings in the world as a football fan. Up there with your team blowing historic leads in the playoffs. One is an immediate gut punch, while the other is a the Chinese water torture of water dripping on your forehead.

That's why, for now, I'm choosing optimism about Mallett until we have concrete news of the team's direction. I'd rather try to look forward to next season than dread it.
 
Oh good, it's time for the stupid annual need v. bpa debate ...

...even though every team in the league uses both.

I'll settle this. :kitten: You start the evaluation with talent and then then EVERYTHING else is factored in to tip the scale one way or another.

Talent is 95%. If you have a guy rated (talent wise) a 97 and another that is 94, you still may take the 94 if EVERYTHING else adds up enough tip the scale. What is EVERYTHING else?

POSITION
NEED
CHARACTER
INJURY HISTORY
ATHLETICISM

Any of these can be plus or minus. Glad I could settle this! :)



J/K that's how I do it anyway.
 
Yes.

We should be drafting the best players we can get our hands on so that we have the best team possible. I wouldn't mind being the next team to win a SB based on great defense.

If Smith will do this then the Texans franchise will be in great shape.

This yr is the yr where BPA is going to meet need. Speed at WR/OL/LB that can cover the TE. The only place the Texans are lacking that the draft is weak in is a TE that can stretch the middle of the field. But a low cost FA TE like Virgil Green should rectify that situation.
 
Now onto my "best case scenario, dark sunglasses blinders fan" scenario...

I obviously want Conner Cook from MSU, but our draft pick is going to prohibit this. Rick Smith is gonna need to dig deep to get the GM balls to trade up 5+ slots to grab Cook before another team with a good GM does.

Cook's draft stock is gonna be made on New Year's Day against a high octane offense in Baylor. If that guy puts up 400 yards and 4 TDs in a win, all the MSU fans can kiss that notion of him coming back for "unfinished business" out the window. He's gonna receive a top 15 grade and head for the NFL. I don't see the need for QB in many of the teams ahead of us outside the top 7, except the Rams who still have Bradford under contract in 2015, so I think there is a chance he slips to around 10ish.

If we are picking at 17 we CAN NOT sit on our hands and hope this guy slips. It's gotta be cold and calculated and done with not enough time for our trade partner to find someone to counter our offer against, but we are gonna need to make that trade and get this guy.

If we don't get Cook, just get ready for the Mallett resigning and stock up on beer to get super drunk at each tailgate before you go into the games. This is all just my opinion and I've been wrong before though. If Cook bombs in the bowl game though this scenario is likely dead to rights on January 2nd once the dust settles.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...state-makes-sparty-a-strong-2015-playoff-team

This doesn't sound like he's wavering. I believe the decision is firm. Besides, what makes you think he will suddenly become a top 15, even with a good game?
 
If Smith will do this then the Texans franchise will be in great shape.

This yr is the yr where BPA is going to meet need. Speed at WR/OL/LB that can cover the TE. The only place the Texans are lacking that the draft is weak in is a TE that can stretch the middle of the field. But a low cost FA TE like Virgil Green should rectify that situation.

The best TE of the year may be Funchess. But he is insisting on WR. I'd love to use him as a mismatch receiver depending on who is covering him. But the chances are that he won't be there when we pick.
 
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...state-makes-sparty-a-strong-2015-playoff-team

This doesn't sound like he's wavering. I believe the decision is firm. Besides, what makes you think he will suddenly become a top 15, even with a good game?

Did you read that article? There was a Twitter quote in it where a reporter talked to his Dad.

Likely Return? Yes
100% over (AKA 100% guaranteed he's coming back)? No

I made it clear it was just my opinion that this bowl game determines if he comes back or not, and I believe he is currently a #13-17 overall prospect that plays QB. Big games define QBs though, this is the biggest game of his career so far (depending on how you look at it I guess). I believe, and it is my opinion, this game defines his draft stock and pushes him to stay or go.
 
Did you read that article? There was a Twitter quote in it where a reporter talked to his Dad.

Likely Return? Yes
100% over (AKA 100% guaranteed he's coming back)? No

I made it clear it was just my opinion that this bowl game determines if he comes back or not, and I believe he is currently a #13-17 QB prospect. Big games define QBs though, this is the biggest game of his career so far. I believe, and it is my opinion, this game defines his draft stock and pushes him to stay or go.

We'll see.
 
I didn't know you were a Fitz fan. So you don't think that Mallet could've won a couple of those 6 close losses that Fitz couldn't just quite get the team over the top for a win? If that's the case then you have very little faith in Mallett and QB must be 1st and foremost on your draft list.

I'm a big believer in BPA. Not what Smith & co hve been doing, which is BPA at position of need.

Definitely not a Fitz fan. This is all just my opinion, so feel free to believe whatever you so choose, it is you're right and I respect that. I would rather try out 5 QBs for an extended run and lose every game finding out what they're made of then to live in mediocrity with one who has proved mediocre is all he is and ever will be over an 8/9 year career. And OLB wasn't our biggest need last year, we were going to move our current OLB inside to fit Clowney in our system, that was a BPA draft just 1 year ago, or drafting a guard when Tackle was a bigger need...

I believe in what living my life has told me. It's told me that people form personal relationships with others through interactions such as work. You want to bring that employee with you that you know cause you are comfortable with him, he does what you ask of him, and he does it fine. He's never been given a real test, but you think he might pass it. You aren't even really considering the other talent in the market because you know and you are comfortable with this other guy though.

What does the market say about this guy though? He's not a high powered badass that has head hunters trying to pick him off your team. He was passed over by every team in the NFL draft 2x (some 3x) before the Patriots said "what the hell". He was pushed out into the market multiple years meanwhile every head hunter (GM) said, "no thanks". Now your new boss tells your head hunter (GM), go get me this dude because I'm comfortable with him. The market dictated he was only worth a 6th round pick, and the market was only 1 team, with a former boss on it, who is comfortable with that employee.

So no, I don't want to give the keys to my franchise to an unproven commodity that has no market. But at the same time I'm very aware that he is not going to accept a 2 year deal where we basically have every incentive to cut him after 2015 if he doesn't work out in spades. So yes, my bitter hostility is coming out, I've seen this story before and I screamed at everyone to not turn that next page, but we did, and now I'm screaming again not to turn it, but we will... And an "I told you so" means nothing in this world.
 
This is a really confusing post.

I believe in what living my life has told me. It's told me that people form personal relationships with others through interactions such as work. You want to bring that employee with you that you know cause you are comfortable with him, he does what you ask of him, and he does it fine. He's never been given a real test, but you think he might pass it. You aren't even really considering the other talent in the market because you know and you are comfortable with this other guy though.

What does the market say about this guy though? He's not a high powered badass that has head hunters trying to pick him off your team. He was passed over by every team in the NFL draft 2x (some 3x) before the Patriots said "what the hell". He was pushed out into the market multiple years meanwhile every head hunter (GM) said, "no thanks". Now your new boss tells your head hunter (GM), go get me this dude because I'm comfortable with him. The market dictated he was only worth a 6th round pick, and the market was only 1 team, with a former boss on it, who is comfortable with that employee.

So, Mallett is the guy because OB believes in him and is comfortable with him? And no one else wanted him, so we got him cheap?


So no, I don't want to give the keys to my franchise to an unproven commodity that has no market. But at the same time I'm very aware that he is not going to accept a 2 year deal where we basically have every incentive to cut him after 2015 if he doesn't work out in spades. So yes, my bitter hostility is coming out, I've seen this story before and I screamed at everyone to not turn that next page, but we did, and now I'm screaming again not to turn it, but we will... And an "I told you so" means nothing in this world.

But no, he's not the guy, he won't accept a deal with us and teams will be scrambling to sign him?
 
FYI, you quoted me saying "this is a really confusing post". I never said that, don't put words in my mouth lol.

So, Mallett is the guy because OB believes in him and is comfortable with him? And no one else wanted him, so we got him cheap?

Yes that's what I believe.

But no, he's not the guy, he won't accept a deal with us and teams will be scrambling to sign him?

I don't believe he's the guy, and it's my right to believe that. There is money in unknown QBs, despite what your potentially condescending statement is trying to imply. Look around the NFL at the unknown QBs who got paid. I remember seeing a guy in this very city in 2007 sign a 6 year contract before he was anybody in the NFL.

And back in 2007 QBs were paid a hell of a lot less. So believe what you want, I respect that, we all have different opinions, I will believe what I believe until Ryan Mallett proves me wrong however, cause I'm coming to the realization more and more everyday that he's gonna be OUR unknown commodity for many years to come.
 
Yes that's what I believe.



I don't believe he's the guy, and it's my right to believe that. There is money in unknown QBs, despite what your potentially condescending statement is trying to imply. Look around the NFL at the unknown QBs who got paid. I remember seeing a guy in this very city in 2007 sign a 6 year contract before he was anybody in the NFL.

And back in 2007 QBs were paid a hell of a lot less. So believe what you want, I respect that, we all have different opinions, I will believe what I believe until Ryan Mallett proves me wrong however, cause I'm coming to the realization more and more everyday that he's gonna be OUR unknown commodity for many years to come.

I certainly didn't intend to make any statement that could be construed as condesending. Just trying to figure out what you were saying because in one statement it seemed you were saying we got the guy we wanted because no one else wanted him, and then you turned around and said that he won't sign with us (even tho he indicated he wanted to stay here). That QB you're referencing did have a high market value ( 2 2nds I believe?) and that is why he got a long contract. But Mallett could only fetch a conditional 6th two years down the road and people are going to leap at paying him big bucks to sign a long term deal with them after one decent game and one stinker of a game?

Believe what you want, say what you want. This is a MB tho and expect to be questioned when you come out with your brand of whatever it is. If it makes no sense to me then I'm going to question and hope you clarify. Of course you can redirect if you choose
 
So, shouldn't we concentrate building the best team around that guy for now? Our defense and defensive depth is not that far away. Should the conversation be Who is our next FS, or CB, or ILB that is going to take this defense up a notch? Or maybe solidify the OL ala the Cowboys?



I really don't know, but I dont like relying on luck to carry us to the promised land. I want to see the Texans with a ring before I die.


This right here. We need to focus on building the best team possible around what is available to us and not try to force the issue of finding a QB when one isn't there.
 
Nope. You're doing the math wrong AND you're casting a very wide net.

First off, if you're looking at the "top 20" rated passers this year, you're going to be including players that a lot of us wouldn't be happy with. Also, are you looking yardage or passer rating or QBR or what?

If you're looking at Yards, then Fitzy is 25th right now even though he's missed several games and if you'd looked a week or two ago, you'd have been including him in your search.

Secondly, when you're looking at those players and seeing that 6 of the top 20 were drafted in the first round, you're not looking at how many players were drafted in the first round to get those 6 players.

I'm going to assume that Peyton Manning is the oldest of these QBs and I'll just go back to 1998. Since 1998, there have been 48 QBs taken in the first round. Of those, only 6 have survived to 2014 and are in the top 20 in passing.

That's 32 whiffs and a 12.5% chance of success and about 2.8 QBs selected in the first round every year.

And when you think about 1st round draft picks at QB, they are given every opportunity to prove themselves; they are carefully groomed and developed; they're given more chances. QBs in later rounds are more-or-less thrown against the wall to see if they stick.

So just taking a QB in the 1st round because the 1st round is more represented in a top yardage list only gives you a 12.5% chance of getting the right guy.

:uprights:

First, that last sentence you quoted was a purposeful straw man to launch into how I showed there truly was nothing in the way of a sure thing just because someone is a first rounder. I was saying IF you looked at just who is filling up the Top 20 this year, one could conclude that the "get a QB in the first round at all cost" mentality is correct; HOWEVER...

Second, I was referencing QB rating. And yes, some of the Top 20 based on Rating we would not want on this team. I went that deep because I wanted to remove any doubt that I was cherry-picking stats to meet a bias or agenda.

And I am not sure where you got that there are only 6 former 1st round QB's in the top 20, unless you are using a different criteria than Rating. Even using Yardage, 11 of the top 13 QB's are 1st round draft picks. Four of those were the 1-1 pick.

Third, I posted all of the QB's drafted in the first round since the 2007 draft, and went on to make the same points that you are making. Not sure why the disagreement.

One can make numbers say what they want them to say. It IS a fact that almost half of the Top 20 QB's based on Rating were drafted in the first 5 picks. But that doesn't mean that every QB drafted in the first 5 picks is guaranteed to be a success. Although some people around here think that drafting a first round QB is the key to solving every issue the Texans have.

I'm not arguing that the Texans have to sell their soul for a high first round QB. In fact, I am just the opposite and tried to showed that the players the Texans actually drafted in those years were better for the team than any QB that we realistically would have had a shot at.

Except as someone pointed out, Flacco. Which someone else counter-pointed that we just traded for Schaub.
 
I certainly didn't intend to make any statement that could be construed as condesending. Just trying to figure out what you were saying because in one statement it seemed you were saying we got the guy we wanted because no one else wanted him, and then you turned around and said that he won't sign with us (even tho he indicated he wanted to stay here). That QB you're referencing did have a high market value ( 2 2nds I believe?) and that is why he got a long contract. But Mallett could only fetch a conditional 6th two years down the road and people are going to leap at paying him big bucks to sign a long term deal with them after one decent game and one stinker of a game?

Believe what you want, say what you want. This is a MB tho and expect to be questioned when you come out with your brand of whatever it is. If it makes no sense to me then I'm going to question and hope you clarify. Of course you can redirect if you choose

I said he won't sign with us for pennies cause QBs with "promise / upside" don't sign for pennies.

I believe he is going to get a 4/40+ with the Texans' (team I believe he signs with) ability to cut him without serious damage to the cap at year 3.

Maybe he will get a Ryan Fitzpatrick 2 year 7.5 MM contract with team capability to cut him in year 2, but I just don't believe it. I believe there is a difference in paying a QB starting QB money and paying a QB starting placeholder money, and I believe NFL agents exploit that difference. I'm just speculating though cause I'm not an NFL agent, but I have seen how Rick Smith spends $.

It seemed like you misunderstood what I was saying and was trying to twist my words against me, maybe that wasn't your intention though and I took it wrong. I try to preface most things with "this is what I believe" in order to start debate about my opinion (not fact) for people to tell me why I'm wrong. I don't mind being educated even if it appears I am not 100% accepting of it. When I feel like someone is just trolling me (trying to just shoot down a point without offering anything back as to why I might be wrong) I find it annoying. This is what I felt was happening, but maybe you're right, maybe Mallett resigns with us for pennies and he proves me wrong. Why?
 
First, that last sentence you quoted was a purposeful straw man to launch into how I showed there truly was nothing in the way of a sure thing just because someone is a first rounder.

I wasn't commenting on your entire post, I was commenting on the part of the post I quoted... which is why the rest of your post was not responded to.

I read your post to that point and so strongly disagreed with what you were saying that I snipped it at that point and responded.

If you had put something in there (like :kitten: ) to indicate that it was not, in fact, a "real" point then I would have continued reading. But as it was, I didn't.

The important part is that we eventually agreed, however, there are others on this forum who DO believe that we should just start drafting any old QB in the first round and my post (as well as your post after the stuff I quoted) is in response to that.

Look at our posts not as disagreement but rather two posts working synergistically toward the same goal.
 
So, shouldn't we concentrate building the best team around that guy for now? Our defense and defensive depth is not that far away. Should the conversation be Who is our next FS, or CB, or ILB that is going to take this defense up a notch? Or maybe solidify the OL ala the Cowboys?

I really don't know, but I dont like relying on luck to carry us to the promised land. I want to see the Texans with a ring before I die.
I'll jump in and add my support to this statement.

Assuming we win Sunday, we have 9 wins this season with our current QB roster of Fitz, Mallet, Savage and Keenum. We started the season with both sides of the ball still struggling to learn the new systems. Since the bye week our defense has upped their game a level or two and played outstandingly. Both offensively and defensively the players are beginning to feel more comfortable in their execution. All of this bodes well for next season.

Next year we play the NFC South and we should expect to have 9 wins pretty much locked in : Carolina, Atlanta, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, NY Jets and with Jacksonville and Tennessee, each twice. We should expect this with our current level of QB play.

I think we can expect at least 10 wins next season and possibly win the division. And I think OB is going to feel comfortable going into the season with our current QB's, with it being very likely Mallet starts the season on IR, Savage taking another year in the third slot and with Fitz and Keenum duking it out for the starter's position. If Mallet is sufficiently back from his injury that it would be best for him to continue his rehab while on the active roster, then Fitz and Keenum will be battling it out for the starting position, with one being released at the end of training camp.

If doc's timing on Mallet's rehab is right, I just don't see how Mallet will be ready to start the first game next season. The question is whether Mallet at less than 100% is still better than one of the other QB's. Unfortunately, we won't know this until the end of training camp.

I just finished rewatching the 1st quarter of play from Sunday's game and except for having his timing off on the deep throws, Keenum's command of the game was excellent. IMO, he is a younger Fitz, but still with an upside. I don't know which way OB would go, between the two. I know what my choice would be.
 
TexansFTW

Maybe if you didn't create false either/ors...there is a huge spectrum between 2 years $7.5 mil and 4 years $40 mil (plus a ton of ways to structure).
 
I said he won't sign with us for pennies cause QBs with "promise / upside" don't sign for pennies.

I believe he is going to get a 4/40+ with the Texans' (team I believe he signs with) ability to cut him without serious damage to the cap at year 3.

Maybe he will get a Ryan Fitzpatrick 2 year 7.5 MM contract with team capability to cut him in year 2, but I just don't believe it. I believe there is a difference in paying a QB starting QB money and paying a QB starting placeholder money, and I believe NFL agents exploit that difference. I'm just speculating though cause I'm not an NFL agent, but I have seen how Rick Smith spends $.

It seemed like you misunderstood what I was saying and was trying to twist my words against me, maybe that wasn't your intention though and I took it wrong. I try to preface most things with "this is what I believe" in order to start debate about my opinion (not fact) for people to tell me why I'm wrong. I don't mind being educated even if it appears I am not 100% accepting of it. When I feel like someone is just trolling me (trying to just shoot down a point without offering anything back as to why I might be wrong) I find it annoying. This is what I felt was happening, but maybe you're right, maybe Mallett resigns with us for pennies and he proves me wrong. Why?

I wasn't trying to argue one point or the other, I really don't know what Mallet will do. 4/$40 million does seem a bit high, but then again, I don't know. I was just trying to understand the points you were making.
 
I wasn't commenting on your entire post, I was commenting on the part of the post I quoted... which is why the rest of your post was not responded to.

I read your post to that point and so strongly disagreed with what you were saying that I snipped it at that point and responded.

If you had put something in there (like :kitten: ) to indicate that it was not, in fact, a "real" point then I would have continued reading. But as it was, I didn't.

The important part is that we eventually agreed, however, there are others on this forum who DO believe that we should just start drafting any old QB in the first round and my post (as well as your post after the stuff I quoted) is in response to that.

Look at our posts not as disagreement but rather two posts working synergistically toward the same goal.

I love to debate, and I have a knack for agreeing with someone, but wanting to make the same point from a different angle and it gets taken as disagreement. So, mea culpa...
 
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