I wouldn't bet on a fourth round quarterback. I'm not sure why he beats what we've had.
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Who's your quarterback - 2015 v2.0
- Thread starter Corrosion
- Start date
I wouldn't bet on a fourth round quarterback. I'm not sure why he beats what we've had.
sandman
Brexit Advisor
It's not an insult to call Wilson a game manager. He is damn good at it. The Texans are a team built around his strengths and would love to have him here.
You have Manning, Brady, Rodgers. Everyone else is a game manager.
This simplifies the debate, and "proves" that the Texans have as good a quarterback situation as anyone.
I propose the following categories, in order of good to bad:
Franchise
Good
Game Manager
Shitty
PapaL
Loose Screw
We won't know what have in Savage until he practices and plays with the 1st team.
Teams miss on 1st round QBs ALL the time. We just need to find one. 1st round, 4th, UDFA, Grocery store - it doesn't matter.
Personally it's Mallet, Savage, and TBD for me. If Winston fell to us in the draft we would be damn fools not to do our due diligence on him.
PapaL
Loose Screw
Tennessee is rumored to be looking at Jay Cutler. They may not even take a QB 1st. How's that for a red flag?
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
It is an insult. The moniker only gets applied to non-"real" QBs. QBs whose shoulders you can't put the team on in crunch time. And NOBODY who has ever worn the label before has sat on a 100 QB rating their first 3 years (hell even their best 3 years) or had 8 4th quarter comebacks and 10 game winning drives like he has.
Fitz has 7 and 9 in 10 seasons. With the same number of starts (which is double Wilson) Schaub had 11 and 14.
Now try "reality stats" against teams over .500
93/150 62% completions 6TD 5 INT QBR 82.48
I'm not even going to get into the "garbage time" stats against teams that had games in the bag either.
sandman
Brexit Advisor
Mish-mash of QB's? Going into the mid-point of last season, the Texans had two starting QB's in their entire existence. Starters as in if healthy, they were starting. One of those QB's had Top 10 production for a 5 year period from 2008-2012, even with two injuries.
PHILLYTEXANFAN
Saddle Up Partner
Drafting a first Rd QB can also set a franchise waaaaay back. Specially one with a bad drafting record
Historically, the odds are very much against him.
True. Well, not literally. Teams don't miss on first round QBs ALL of the time. In fact, the first round graded talent at QB has a much, much greater hit rate than the rest of the rounds + grocery stores put together.
Saying the Texans will take a franchise level fourth rounder, UDFA, or grocery store doesn't actually make it doable. In fact, it is extremely unlikely that occurs, and probably not a theory to build a successful franchise on.
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
We do not have a bad record of attempting to draft starting QBs. We've only tried it once and that was a completely different administration but for the owner. The sample size is too small.
And if we're going to do bad drafting records we shouldn't have taken what because prior to him we had a miserable record drafting DL.
So out of fear never draft a quality player at the sport's most critical position. The odds are about 50% success in the first round. Probably single digits in later rounds. Going with the low percentage isn't a recipe for success.
Rather than taking just four words, at least take the entire phrase:
Last year:
Hurt Schaub - not good Schaub, but Lisfranc'd Schaub.
Yates
Keenum
This year:
Fitzpatrick
Mallett
Savage
So yes, mish-mash.
sandman
Brexit Advisor
For all QB's with a 90% rating or higher (there are 15), he is #14 in completion percentage, #13 in attempts, yards and TD's (only because #14 and #15 are on IR), and has the 3rd highest sack total.
Meanwhile, Seattle has the #1 defense BY FAR the last two years and are leading the league in rushing this year after being #3/#4 the last two years. Wilson is closing in on 2,000 rushing yards for his career and has an outside chance at breaking 1,000 this season alone.
They have not needed him to pass for more than his 206 yards per game career average. He has also been sacked 116 times in his 3-year career, indicative of his propensity to tuck and run.
He is really good. A dynamic player that fits exactly what that team needs to succeed. He plays within his games and to his strengths. But let's not pretend that he is more Luck than RGIII. And quite frankly, put him on the Raiders in place of Carr where he doesn't have a great defense and stud RB, and had to rely upon his arm a whole lot more than he does, and he would get exposed.
But your argument was that he wins games and is a good leader. Which is true, despite the fact that we were talking about him being a game manager instead of a "real" QB.
sandman
Brexit Advisor
Well if we are going to play the literal words game, you did state "start the season with", so technically there has only been one change in the last 8 years with Fitzpatrick this year.
And let's be honest, as someone else pointed out, outside of the Pick-6 issues, he started of the season playing well and didn't start falling off the cliff until sometime around Game 5. He was coming off of a 4,000 yard season with a 91% rating and getting the team to the playoffs. The Texans did not start the season expecting to replace Schaub.
They were not making changes this year for the sake of making changes. BOB had a plan, and we all knew it: that Mallett would replace Fitz at some point in the season. They were not expecting to replace Mallett, or Fitz the Second, or Savage. You are just being disingenuous with the facts.
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
It's cute you trying to minimize Wilson's accomplishments while arguing game manager isn't an insult.
Again, all your jacking around aside about Wilson's great team, he has had to bring them back to win many times.
Again, all your jacking around aside about Wilson's great team, he has had to bring them back to win many times.
Well if we are going to play the literal words game, you did state "start the season with", so technically there has only been one change in the last 8 years with Fitzpatrick this year.
And let's be honest, as someone else pointed out, outside of the Pick-6 issues, he started of the season playing well and didn't start falling off the cliff until sometime around Game 5. He was coming off of a 4,000 yard season with a 91% rating and getting the team to the playoffs. The Texans did not start the season expecting to replace Schaub.
They were not making changes this year for the sake of making changes. BOB had a plan, and we all knew it: that Mallett would replace Fitz at some point in the season. They were not expecting to replace Mallett, or Fitz the Second, or Savage. You are just being disingenuous with the facts.
The Texans started the season with three quarterbacks on the roster each of the past two seasons. I didn't say anything about the single starting quarterback that the Texans "start the season with".
Regardless of Schaub's performance the previous year, many thought Schaub was done due to the Lisfranc injury. It turns out they were correct; blame the Texans for assuming he'd be the same player after that specific injury which is a known career ender.
The Texans went from three mediocre or unproven quarterbacks to another three mediocre or unproven quarterbacks regardless of the plan. There is nothing disingenuous about how I presented that. You should also note I only listed the three quarterbacks that started the year - I did not muddy the waters with the injury driven additions of Keenum and Lewis. There was certainly nothing disingenuous about that.
One big difference between Kubiak & OB is that there are no "big games" for Kubiak. One game is the same as the other. We just have to do what we do as well as we know how to do it & we win.
OB... this was a big game. He talked it up as much as any fan. I think what we saw from Savage in that first qtr of play was nerves + difficulty communicating in a harsh environment.
I mean we saw him just the week before handing the ball off to Arian like he was doing it for years.
Keenum was never "thrown into" a situation like that. Not to say anything negative about Case, but he was never "thrown into" a situation like that... as a rookie, or even a third year player.
TexansBull
Hall of Fame
"drafting a franchise QB" is a lot easier typed than done. It's just not that easy.
I know you are not saying draft a QB to draft a QB for the sake of it, but it seems that way.
Besides - you would draft a QB to have three QBs on your roster who haven't had meaningful game playing/ starting experience?
It may take a year or two to effectively grade a QB, but the next QB up after Mallet is Savage. So I would say next year (2016) you draft a QB. That still gives Mallet 2015, Savage 2016, and the rookie 2017. Worst case scenario.
But if that happens this team will be average at best. I would assume in that scenario the HC is gon along with Rick Smith. Complete rebuilding mode.
I think the Titans & Jags would have been better off had they picked just about any other player at those spots than Locker & Gabbert.
I don't have anything against drafting QBs in the first round, I have a problem against reaching & taking chances on QBs in the first round. Go back & look at all the QBs drafted since 2007 & make a list of the ones that produced better than Matt Schaub, a third round pick. He was more a franchise QB than most of them ever had a chance to be. Jamarcus Russell, Brady Quin, Kevin Kolb, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, Tim Tebow, Cam Newton (& I like Cam, just wouldn't have taken him 1st overall), Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder....
Which of QBs drafted in 2006 are still in the league today?
Jay Cutler, Kellen Clemmons, Charlie Whitehurst & Brad Gradkowsky. You'd rather have any of them instead of Mario Williams, Aj Hawk, D'Brickshaw, Vernon Davis, Ngata, Whimbley, Cromartie, Hali, Jonathan Joseph, Mercedes Lewis, Kiwanuka...
I look at the traits I want in a QB more than I do the round they were taken, especially when "need" steers the draft more than anything else.
Who was the best QB to come out of Georgia in the last 10 years? Most people would say Matthew Stafford, but Aaron Murray will get a lot of votes. How does Stafford get taken #1 overall, but Murray winds up a 5th round pick? I guarantee you the first time the kid gets on the field, people are going to be saying he should be a starter somewhere in this league.
PHILLYTEXANFAN
Saddle Up Partner
I didn't say never draft. Just showing the other side of the coin cuz some people want a first TD QB, but it's not gonna happen anywhere soon as I ve said before unless Obrien thinks one is light years ahead of Savage
I like Mallett, I like Savage, & I like what I've seen & heard of Grayson so far.
With those three, I think we'll have found our QB of the future by 2017.
Whether we get Grayson in the first, second, third, or fourth.
sandman
Brexit Advisor
So Schaub's 2011 season is cut short due to the Linfranc injury. He comes back in 2012, throws for 4,000 yards with the 9th highest QB rating in the league, and leads the team to 12-4 and into the playoffs. And after all that is done, THAT is when "many" thought he was done and couldn't play any more? OK.
And Schaub/Yates/Keenum were the same three QB's on the 2012 roster. They made a big change this year. Everyone gets that. But 2013 was the same as 2012. And as far as ACTIVE QB's go, it was the same as 2011. Other than a regime change creating a huge overhaul THIS year, I'm not understanding your point. Because that is what happens in regime changes. Especially when, as you put it, your current QB's are mediocre. If a coach is going to have mediocre QB's, he wants HIS mediocre QB's and not the dregs from his predecessor.
Are we trying to win championships here or are we trying to teach QB's how to handle a snap ?!?
The argument between Keenum & Savage is pointless ... Fitzpatrick is a better QB than both and none of the above should be the starter on a team aspiring to win a superbowl. Hell the 85 Bears couldn't drag those dudes to a Lombardi as the starter.
We need a quarterback and are no closer today in solving the position than we were the day OB took over as coach.
The argument between Keenum & Savage is pointless ... Fitzpatrick is a better QB than both and none of the above should be the starter on a team aspiring to win a superbowl. Hell the 85 Bears couldn't drag those dudes to a Lombardi as the starter.
We need a quarterback and are no closer today in solving the position than we were the day OB took over as coach.
Scooter
Funky
Which is what I've been saying all along that you've been arguing so vehemently against. I should have said "mediocre and dregs" not mish-mash.
sandman
Brexit Advisor
ChampionTexan
Hall of Fame
No there aren't. Since the Texans entered the league (thru 2012 since we'll give the draftees at least a couple of years to develop before passing judgement), there have been only two years in which more than 2 QB's were drafted who turned out to be quality NFL starters. There were just a many years in which absolutely no drafted QB turned out the be a quality NFL starting QB. Of the remaining 7 years, 3 generated two quality QB's, and 4 generated only one. Basically, of the preceding 11 years, if you didn't have a top 11 pick, there were four years where you could have found yourself a quality starting QB, but even in those four years, it was never more than one (and to put that in perspective and give a little reference to how I'm ranking these guys, one of those four years, that starting quality QB was Matt Schaub). The other three guys were Andy Dalton, Russell Wilson, and Aaron Rodgers. Just to disclose everything, there actually was a 5th, as Tony Romo was a UDFA in 2003. So that makes 5 guys in 11 years who were later than the 11th pick.
...
First, I'm not gonna deem Bortles or Bridgewater worthy of anything yet. They certainly haven't proven themselves not worthy, but one year (or even two) doesn't really prove anything - positive or negative. However, if you're wanting to declare that soon in someone's career, then add 2013 to the list of drafts where there were zero quality starters available.
Secondly, the reason the risk is so much greater in taking that QB is that you've got to give him every chance, and if h doesn't take it, you waste time with the most important position in sports. Would Jake Locker still be on the Titans roster if he wasn't a high first round QB pick? Would Blaine Gabbert have started as many games as he did with the Jaguars if he'd been a linebacker? Right or wrong, and for whatever reason, teams give highly drafted QB's more chances and more second chances than other positions, and than QB's drafted later - which means the cost of getting it wrong is higher than the cost of getting another position wrong.
yeah, you're probably right...
Hopefully with the change in the rookie scale, teams will start developing these guys instead of throwing them to the wolves. We're throwing away way too much talent the way the league's been going about it.
But with so much pressure for coaches to win now, it's hard to see that happening. You'd think seeing Kubiak here & Lewis in Cincinnati, these other bottom feeding teams would wise up.
Despite drafting a decent QB, the Raiders are no closer to contention than we were in 2002.
At first, I thought it was his son. But after I saw his boy answer that 97x87 question (or whatever it was) I figured the kid was too smart.
I understand the point that QBs might get a longer rope to hang themselves, although I'm not convinced this will continue to be true now that rookie salaries are controlled.
Compare that possible "waste of time" to what is the preferred approach by some others, which is to not invest heavily in the draft at QB:
Year one: last year, Schaub proves he is done
Year two: this year, Fitzpatrick, the definition of mediocre game manager
Year three: take the risk and rely on Mallett based on one game (which was good, not spectacular). If he shines , the Texans win. I know a lot of people assume he will be the guy because he's a Texan and the only option they have right now. I think that is based more on hope than honest evaluation though. Honestly, he could go either way. If he fails (or gets hurt), then:
Year four: Draft a rookie first rounder and play Savage for a year. Savage is a fourth round talent - it is unlikely he is a franchise player - at very best he will be adequate. Can't play the rookie - O'Brien says so.
Year five: Second year player, first year of game action.
Year six: maybe have a franchise quarterback, unless they screwed up the pick.
This strategy succeeds only if Mallett is the man or mediocrity is spun as success.. If he isn't and the Texans still ignore investing in a quarterback, expect a lot of snide "right track" comments from me.
Would drafting Bortles this year, or looking for a good first round quarterback next year put them any farther behind than 5 years? I don't think so.
This is where I see the disconnect. For those of us who are optimistic about Mallett & Savage don't see them as third/fourth round talent. I think of both of them as 1st round talent. You're not going to find a 1st rounder with more talent than either of them unless you inflate the importance of mobility & athleticism.
It wasn't a lack of talent that prevented either Mallett or Savage from being drafted in the 1st round. With Mallett, it was questions about his maturity & drug use. Neither of which appear to be a problem now. With Savage, it was playing time.
The only way Bortles looks viable, to me, is that the prognosis of Clowney ever being the player we thought he would be is slimmer than slim. Not really worth talking about since Clowney's current issues stem from stuff that happened after the draft.
Bridgewater, I was so far against drafting him at 1.1 but once he dropped below 15, he began to look like a bargain. After 20, I figured for sure we'd make a play.
However, I don't believe the Texans ever thought that way. Looking at all the QBs, they figured they would rather have Savage at 135 than Bridgewater before 33. & I have no problem with that. Bridgewater's biggest assett is his football IQ. Maybe they feel they can get Savage on par. But there's no way they'll get Bridgewater to 6'4" with a laser rocket arm.
You don't see the Texans investing heavily in a QB, I do. Mallett, Savage, & possibly another QB next year. Just because they don't conform to today's media driven draft analysis, you don't see the investment.
It is a fact that Texans don't have much invested in QB...will be hard pressed to see another team with this combination of low money and low draft picks invested in QB.
1)High-end back up/low grade starters contract for Fitzpatrick
2) low 4th round pick for Savage
3) late round pick for a former 3rd round QB with little to no NFL playing time w/o a contract for 2015.
Very much hoped for Fitzpatrick to get us through and spat against the wall to see if they can get lucky. Mallet and Savages are hopes not plans or expectations.
1)High-end back up/low grade starters contract for Fitzpatrick
2) low 4th round pick for Savage
3) late round pick for a former 3rd round QB with little to no NFL playing time w/o a contract for 2015.
Very much hoped for Fitzpatrick to get us through and spat against the wall to see if they can get lucky. Mallet and Savages are hopes not plans or expectations.
Buy low, sell high. Works in football too.
Number19
Hall of Fame
Just to update my own question on Mallet's injury, I find numerous posts from Nov 24 and 25 stating that Mallet would undergo corrective surgery; and no subsequent update - until a mention just four days ago in an ESPN update on Mallet. It said he had undergone surgery "last month". http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/p...-help-the-team-will-think-of-his-future-later
This is good news - the sooner his surgery the better for his rehab. It should be at least 6 months before he is cleared for unrestricted activity, which should allow him to start throwing again hopefully in early June. But this will be a little less than 2 months before training camp.
So what does this mean? I think it means we have to go into training camp with a veteran QB. And I think OB will want someone already familiar with his offense. And there are only two - Fitz and Keenum.
This is good news - the sooner his surgery the better for his rehab. It should be at least 6 months before he is cleared for unrestricted activity, which should allow him to start throwing again hopefully in early June. But this will be a little less than 2 months before training camp.
So what does this mean? I think it means we have to go into training camp with a veteran QB. And I think OB will want someone already familiar with his offense. And there are only two - Fitz and Keenum.
ChampionTexan
Hall of Fame
Uhmmmm...what exactly would "selling high" consist of in this particular situation?
Talking them up.
PapaL
Loose Screw
Fitz and Savage. Savage has been in the system longer than Keenum. Only reason Keenum is here is because Savage was injured.
Number19
Hall of Fame
I'm a Keenum supporter - and not because I'm a UH alum. In fact I don't watch college football and didn't know who Keenum was until he became a Texan. My support for Case is largely due to an in depth analysis of what he brings to the position by June Jones. What June Jones saw in Keenum is supported by what OB saw in the Texan QB this past Sunday, as heard during his Monday interview and as reported in the Chronicle this morning: (Something) about Case that's impressed me is huddle command - his knowledge, intelligence and his command at the line of scrimmage... he's a good leader, a poised guy...".
I think Case will have a good game Sunday and we'll win; and right now, I'm thinking Case will be in the mix come OTA's.
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Actually, NFL players are much closer to cars in that once you drive them even a little the market value (not personal or franchise value) goes down not up in terms of what you will be able to get back from someone else.
in other words, Atlanta getting more for Matt Schuab than the 3rd rounder they made is the exception not the rule. Ya know like finding decent starting QBs with late 4th round picks or trading a future 6th rounder.
Depends on what your definition of "Works" is.
Yeah , its worked ..... to fill the stadium but hasn't worked to fill the trophy case.
I wonder if this would fly in any other NFL city as we were so hungry for football after losing our franchise.
Seems to be working in Philly the last couple of years.
Marshall
Not pretty, but ALIVE!
People invest all the time. But the successful investors are either lucky or wise enough to know when to invest and which investments are worth investing in.
QBs have not been solid investments the last few years so we took flyers on those with potential rather than overpay the overhyped.
Marshall
Not pretty, but ALIVE!
People invest all the time. But the successful investors are either lucky or wise enough to know when to invest and which investments are worth investing in.
QBs have not been solid investments the last few years so we took flyers on those with potential rather than overpay ( high draft pick - not $) the over-hyped.
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
And this at least 6 mos comes from? I posted an article by a doc who does this surgery and he said 3.
Number19
Hall of Fame
Our own doc at post #1449, in the Mallet thread.
Patients with very high-grade II or complete grade III tears of the humeral (upper arm bone) insertion [pectoralis major muscle tendon attachment to the bone] or musculotendinous junction [pectoralis major muscle tendon attachment to the muscle] diagnosed both by clinical examination and by MRI are typically treated surgically in an elite athlete.
It may seem somewhat strange to say, but the fact that he requires surgery makes his prognosis very good for return to pre-injury status vs. if he would have sustained a lesser Grade II, which is usually treated nonsurgically and, as opposed to surgical repair, has a significant re-tear rate.
Immobilization is followed by passive then active range of motion exercises from 4 to 8 weeks. Next, light resistance and strengthening exercises are indicated for about 4 weeks before light weight lifting can begin, usually not earlier than 3 to 4 months postoperatively, with a subsequent return to unrestricted activity at about 6 months postoperatively.
To give you an idea, reviews of the modern literature reveals overall surgical outcomes are excellent 90% of the time compared with 17% of nonsurgical patients who had excellent outcomes.the majority of the patients return to their previous performance levels within 4 to 12 months.
Everyone wants to find the next low round drafted quarterback .... the next Tom Brady.
There are examples of it happening but it just doesn't happen often. Quarterback is the toughest position to fill in sports. Teams evaluate these prospects and even the best of them sh!t the bed. Those lower round and undrafted players have many more flaws to their game than their counterparts drafted early .... they are even less likely to be successful.
Is this franchise about winning championships or filling seats .... If its the latter , keep doing what you are doing , they fans will still come even if they wear bags on their heads.
If its the former ..... You need to do something different cause what you been doing aint worked.