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Week 15 - The Battle of Dumpster Fires (Jags)

76Texan said:
I would have bet the Over, too.
Good to see get your Whiskey money. :brando:
Man, I would have won a good bit if I was still in the game.
The wife, who isn't into gambling, still had to say that I should have bet each week as I had called almost all of the props correctly. :brando:
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maybe not best of fits? Play to strengths.
 
Texian said:
BWAHAHAHAHA X2 Not once, but twice Texans have played themselves out of not only the #1 pick but could well be on their way to being out of the Top 5. No coincidence Texans 3 wins have come against AFC South Division opponents.
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Yep I called it, if Texans lose you would say Jags were turning it around. Though that was before your boy Meyer was thrown out so you might have had to get more creative, and if Texans win you would say they screwed up and cost themselces draft position.

Your position on things is easy to predict but what I can't figure is what your angle is. You hate the team and everything they do, your boy Meyer was fired way before Culley so you can't give the "I told you so" on that. You've been wrong on everything you have said while telling us all how much an expert you are.

So why are you here?
 
thunderkyss said:
Still got 3 games. Lions been playing hard all year. They’re going to win another game.

Jags are probably going to win one.

Texans have little chance to win another game.
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Jags have Jets, Pats and Colts. If they don’t beat the Jets I don’t see them winning another game.

Lions have Falcons, Seahawks and Packers. I would have said Falcons were their only chance but they beat the Cards and Seahawks have been hit or miss with mostly miss. Don’t think they’ll beat the Packers.

We have Chargers, 49ers and the Titans. We might upset the Tits because that’s just what happens in division games but Chargers and 49ers should beat us.

So yeah Jags most likely have the number 1 locked down but number 2 is still in play.

Wish I was talking about playoff seed and not draft pick position when saying that.
 
maverick512000 said:
Jags have Jets, Pats and Colts. If they don’t beat the Jets I don’t see them winning another game.

Lions have Falcons, Seahawks and Packers. I would have said Falcons were their only chance but they beat the Cards and Seahawks have been hit or miss with mostly miss. Don’t think they’ll beat the Packers.

We have Chargers, 49ers and the Titans. We might upset the Tits because that’s just what happens in division games but Chargers and 49ers should beat us.

So yeah Jags most likely have the number 1 locked down but number 2 is still in play.

Wish I was talking about playoff seed and not draft pick position when saying that.
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Hard to imagine the Titans allowing the Texans to beat them twice in the same year, no matter how much I hate them, and how I think Tannerhill benefits from having Henry.
(He's still a decent starting QB).
 
It is becoming quite comical watching the Kool Aid Brigade convincing themselves that they don't want the #1 pick in the draft and the excuses they are making for how they are better off picking later in the draft. The Power of Kool Aid.
 
Texian said:
It is becoming quite comical watching the Kool Aid Brigade convincing themselves that they don't want the #1 pick in the draft and the excuses they are making for how they are better off picking later in the draft. The Power of Kool Aid.
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Seems like it would be much easier to trade down from #3 in 2022 than #1 with no standout QB available... Texans already done that twice
 
Yeah it could be a blessing in disguise to fall to the 3rd pick. I have been seeing mocks and the 2 DE's are expected to go 1-2. They could have multiple options or just trade down and get great value not having the top pick. I hope they just take BPA available no matter where they pick.
 
texanhead08 said:
Yeah it could be a blessing in disguise to fall to the 3rd pick. I have been seeing mocks and the 2 DE's are expected to go 1-2. They could have multiple options or just trade down and get great value not having the top pick. I hope they just take BPA available no matter where they pick.
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I hope they trade down multiple times for multiple picks this year and next
And still get 4-5 starters this year
 
texanhead08 said:
Yeah it could be a blessing in disguise to fall to the 3rd pick. I have been seeing mocks and the 2 DE's are expected to go 1-2. They could have multiple options or just trade down and get great value not having the top pick. I hope they just take BPA available no matter where they pick.
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With no Watson trade and Texans picking at 3 best case scenario would be trading down into 6-10 range, pick up extra day 2 picks and getting Linderbaum to be the center with that pick in 6-10 range.
 
Texian said:
It is becoming quite comical watching the Kool Aid Brigade convincing themselves that they don't want the #1 pick in the draft and the excuses they are making for how they are better off picking later in the draft. The Power of Kool Aid.
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Don't think anyone has stated that "they don't want the #1 pick". Having the top pick would have been more important in rounds 2 thru 4 IMO, so yes it would have been great. Happy now? It would just about take a parting of the Red Sea for it to happen...so moving on. With all the needs of this team, anything at the top will be fine to keep or trade for more assets.
 
KoolAid Sipper said:
Don't think anyone has stated that "they don't want the #1 pick". Having the top pick would have been more important in rounds 2 thru 4 IMO, so yes it would have been great. Happy now? It would just about take a parting of the Red Sea for it to happen...so moving on. With all the needs of this team, anything at the top will be fine to keep or trade for more assets.
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I don't want the number pick in a year there is not a clear QB at the top of the draft.

- Texans fans have had experience with this twice. Selected good to very good (Mario and Clowney), but non-great, difference making player who didn't make the 2nd contract.
- and even when that guy hits see Myles Garrett, are the Browns riding his excellence to playoffs even, much less the Superbowl? Remember JJ Watt was the best defensive player on the planet for 3-4 years. So even two passers hit they are not going to bottom-line (wins and playoffs) as much even a good QB would.
- There are are cluster of five players at the top of most draft boards. They are all supposed to be difference makers. The Texans could use any of them equally.
- Those above are the reasons the number 1 pick has next no trade value in a year there is not a very good QB prospect.
- Fact: the last number one overall trade that didn't net a QB: pre-Texans 1997 Orlando Pace. If a missed a year, I am please let me know.
-If you are wanting to trade down, three to five is a better place for non-QBs historically (fact) and this year (imo on this year)

The number 1 in pick in non-QB year is AN OVERRATED ASSET, that a team is not going to be able to get rid of.
 
ArlingtonTexan said:
I don't want the number pick in a year there is not a clear QB at the top of the draft.

- Texans fans have had experience with this twice. Selected good to very good (Mario and Clowney), but non-great, difference making player who didn't make the 2nd contract.
- and even when that guy hits see Myles Garrett, are the Browns riding his excellence to playoffs even, much less the Superbowl? Remember JJ Watt was the best defensive player on the planet for 3-4 years. So even two passers hit they are not going to bottom-line (wins and playoffs) as much even a good QB would.
- There are are cluster of five players at the top of most draft boards. They are all supposed to be difference makers. The Texans could use any of them equally.
- Those above are the reasons the number 1 pick has next no trade value in a year there is not a very good QB prospect.
- Fact: the last number one overall trade that didn't net a QB: pre-Texans 1997 Orlando Pace. If a missed a year, I am please let me know.
-If you are wanting to trade down, three to five is a better place for non-QBs historically (fact) and this year (imo on this year)

The number 1 in pick in non-QB year is AN OVERRATED ASSET, that a team is not going to be able to get rid of.
Click to expand...
Drafting a lesser player will not make your team better, it only makes your team not as good. When it comes to trading down, no pick gets greater value than the #1 pick and it's 3000-point value. Again, trading down from #1 makes your team better. Trading down from a lower pick offers less value in return. Simple arithmetic regardless how to try and spin it.
 
ArlingtonTexan said:
I don't want the number pick in a year there is not a clear QB at the top of the draft.

- Texans fans have had experience with this twice. Selected good to very good (Mario and Clowney), but non-great, difference making player who didn't make the 2nd contract.
- and even when that guy hits see Myles Garrett, are the Browns riding his excellence to playoffs even, much less the Superbowl? Remember JJ Watt was the best defensive player on the planet for 3-4 years. So even two passers hit they are not going to bottom-line (wins and playoffs) as much even a good QB would.
- There are are cluster of five players at the top of most draft boards. They are all supposed to be difference makers. The Texans could use any of them equally.
- Those above are the reasons the number 1 pick has next no trade value in a year there is not a very good QB prospect.
- Fact: the last number one overall trade that didn't net a QB: pre-Texans 1997 Orlando Pace. If a missed a year, I am please let me know.
-If you are wanting to trade down, three to five is a better place for non-QBs historically (fact) and this year (imo on this year)

The number 1 in pick in non-QB year is AN OVERRATED ASSET, that a team is not going to be able to get rid of.
Click to expand...
We agree to a certain extent and the reasoning is like I said, there is no obvious generational talent at QB that teams love...especially when it's a need. But let's not lose focus on if the team sucked and has the #1 overall pick that also means having the 1st pick in each round.

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk
 
Speedy said:
If by 31 you mean 37, then yeah.

Texans scoring 33.5 points per game against the Jaguars, 11.6 points per game against everyone else.
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And with the loss, Jags snag #1 overall pick thanks to our win and Detroit winning. Texas do Jags a favor to help them get the top pick
 
KoolAid Sipper said:
Don't think anyone has stated that "they don't want the #1 pick". Having the top pick would have been more important in rounds 2 thru 4 IMO, so yes it would have been great. Happy now? It would just about take a parting of the Red Sea for it to happen...so moving on. With all the needs of this team, anything at the top will be fine to keep or trade for more assets.
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Yes and no. I would love to see our top 3 pick traded for more picks in the first 2rds. Will it happen is the question. Seeing anything through round 2 give or take 1 bust in say 3 picks is a starter or strong backup
 
As others have stated having the most valuable pick is only great if you are planning to actually draft a player that everyone is fighting for usually a QB. Other than that it may have a really high trade value but that doesn't help if no one will pony up the capital to buy it. Its like the market for a million dollar house vs a 250k house. The market is much larger for the 250k so it will sell a lot faster and maybe even above your asking price. In comparison yes you will get more for the million dollar house but it may take longer to sell and the longer it goes the less likely you are to get your asking price.
 
thunderkyss said:
Over the last 10 drafts, how many times has the #1 overall player selected been the best player in that draft?
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The draft is a crap shoot in the 1st place, to many people forget that. It doesn't matter what your draft position is, you have just as good a chance at getting a difference maker as you do a wash-out in any position in the draft.

You're drafting humans, not cattle, and humans are notorious for not being what you expected.
 
KoolAid Sipper said:
We agree to a certain extent and the reasoning is like I said, there is no obvious generational talent at QB that teams love...especially when it's a need. But let's not lose focus on if the team sucked and has the #1 overall pick that also means having the 1st pick in each round.

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk
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Is there really a gap between a teams 65th ranked player and the 68th ranked player.

Top of each round might on the beginning of day 2 and day 3 or rounds two and four when some team had fell in love with someone overnight, so okay.

Outside that the top of the round stuff is draft nerd talk that has no bearing on a teams ability to move around the draft board
 
Texian said:
Drafting a lesser player will not make your team better, it only makes your team not as good. When it comes to trading down, no pick gets greater value than the #1 pick and it's 3000-point value. Again, trading down from #1 makes your team better. Trading down from a lower pick offers less value in return. Simple arithmetic regardless how to try and spin it.
[/QUOT
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Texian said:
Drafting a lesser player will not make your team better, it only makes your team not as good. When it comes to trading down, no pick gets greater value than the #1 pick and it's 3000-point value. Again, trading down from #1 makes your team better. Trading down from a lower pick offers less value in return. Simple arithmetic regardless how to try and spin it.
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My original post addresses this, especially for this particular draft.

1. There is no clearly better player out of the top five dudes. Number 1 by a small fraction to your number 5 matters.


2. There zero history since 1997 of a team trading to the top of a non qb. Getting extra value at 1 versus 3 is theorical not functioning reality in a draft shaped like this one.
 
thunderkyss said:
Over the last 10 drafts, how many times has the #1 overall player selected been the best player in that draft?
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It only proves that you need to nail the pick.
And as pointed out, having the top pick in every round improves your chance.
See the 2006 draft for the Texans as an example.
The 2014 draft was so ugly that I was turned off O'Brien immediately with his philosophy of looking for bigger/faster/taller guys instead of real football players.
 
ArlingtonTexan said:
My original post addresses this, especially for this particular draft.

1. There is no clearly better player out of the top five dudes. Number 1 by a small fraction to your number 5 matters.


2. There zero history since 1997 of a team trading to the top of a non qb. Getting extra value at 1 versus 3 is theorical not functioning reality in a draft shaped like this one.
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You're in a position to have $3000 deposited into your bank account. You say no thanks, I'd rather have $2200 instead because you insist it's a better deal. Then I say, Well, OK then.
 
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Texian said:
You're in a position to have $3000 deposited into your bank account. You say no thanks, I'd rather have $2200 instead because you insist it's a better deal. Then I say, Well, OK then.
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What is the market difference between #1 and #3 THIS year? How much better of a difference maker can you get? If you want to trade down to get more picks, which will come closer to letting you do that?
 
So here is a draft question... Assuming like 5 cars that close to the same in value and any of them would be better the junker you have would GM you

Sell your 3000 asset for under market value say 2750 and still get a similar car with some stuff or lock to the 3000 price and get the better car which is only better because of some subjective reasoning that may only matter you and your family?
 
ArlingtonTexan said:
3000 had a 1 percent chance of happening and 2200 has 20 percent chance of happening... what is the better bet?
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I get what you are saying. I just think that's the tail wagging the dog.

I'm hoping by winning games we are establishing that we have an organization that knows how to win. Aiming for the #1 overall tells me the organization doesn't know what winning means.

In the Jags situation, that might not be the case (though history says it is). They've had a lot to deal with they couldn't overcome. Same with the Lions this year.

I'd e thrilled if we got the #1 overall. But I'm not going to cry if we get the #5 overall
 
i was thinking it does not matter we need to trade down and get has much 2nd round picks has possible
 
Texian said:
Go play Monopoly and start with only 75% of a full bank account. Let's know how often you come out ahead.
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Monopoly is a game of luck, skill and positioning just like the draft. And way more luck than most people wish to admit so having more money does not matter as much as the numbers might suggest.

Many people falsely think it is always better to have always boardwalk and park place because they have more value than anything else on the board

If you don't have anyone to trade with or can't build the asset properly or the right player doesn't fall on your property then the value won't be realized.
 
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ArlingtonTexan said:
I don't want the number pick in a year there is not a clear QB at the top of the draft.

- Texans fans have had experience with this twice. Selected good to very good (Mario and Clowney), but non-great, difference making player who didn't make the 2nd contract.
- and even when that guy hits see Myles Garrett, are the Browns riding his excellence to playoffs even, much less the Superbowl? Remember JJ Watt was the best defensive player on the planet for 3-4 years. So even two passers hit they are not going to bottom-line (wins and playoffs) as much even a good QB would.
- There are are cluster of five players at the top of most draft boards. They are all supposed to be difference makers. The Texans could use any of them equally.
- Those above are the reasons the number 1 pick has next no trade value in a year there is not a very good QB prospect.
- Fact: the last number one overall trade that didn't net a QB: pre-Texans 1997 Orlando Pace. If a missed a year, I am please let me know.
-If you are wanting to trade down, three to five is a better place for non-QBs historically (fact) and this year (imo on this year)

The number 1 in pick in non-QB year is AN OVERRATED ASSET, that a team is not going to be able to get rid of.
Click to expand...

Spot on.
 
Texian said:
Drafting a lesser player will not make your team better, it only makes your team not as good. When it comes to trading down, no pick gets greater value than the #1 pick and it's 3000-point value. Again, trading down from #1 makes your team better. Trading down from a lower pick offers less value in return. Simple arithmetic regardless how to try and spin it.
Click to expand...
ArlingtonTexan said:
3000 had a 1 percent chance of happening and 2200 has 20 percent chance of happening... what is the better bet?
Click to expand...

Those darned numbers seem to be lying to Texian.
 
JB said:
What is the market difference between #1 and #3 THIS year? How much better of a difference maker can you get? If you want to trade down to get more picks, which will come closer to letting you do that?
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Plus the fact that you save cap money. After all of the crap Texian has been posting about Caserio and the cap you would think he would be happy with a lesser cap hit for a comparable drafted talent.
 
Thorn said:
At this point in the season, it's kinda useless to get upset over this team. They're a pile of garbage that beat another pile of garbage.

Our three wins this season are all in the division, whatever than means.
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It means that likely the AFC title game is not going to involve any teams in our division.
 
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