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Watt out for season - Now What?

PapaL

Loose Screw
We're going to have to face reality with JJ. It's going to be ugly just like it was Andre but the price tag no longer meets production and his trade value is nothing. Injured isn't the way he wanted to leave but looking at his contract, we'd be paying an older and oft injured player HUGE money to recover before his next contract?

Games played:
https://www.rotoworld.com/football/nfl/player/8060/jj-watt/stats
2019: 8/16
2018: 16/16
2017: 5/16
2016: 3/16

2016-2019: 32/64 (Ages 27-30)
2011-2015: 80/80 (Ages 22-26)

Contract Details:
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/houston-texans/j.j.-watt-7726/
2019: If released today, $2M dead money. No more guaranteed after this season. *Highest paid Texan*
2020: $15.5M *Highest paid Texan*
2021: $17.5M *Highest paid Texan*
2022: UFA 33 yo

For this season JJ is the 3rd highest cap hit at his position; behind Melvin Ingram and Oliver Vernon. Currently for 2020 he drops to 10th, 2021 back up to 6th highest.
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/defensive-end/
 

TheKDog

Hall of Fame
We're going to have to face reality with JJ. It's going to be ugly just like it was Andre but the price tag no longer meets production and his trade value is nothing. Injured isn't the way he wanted to leave but looking at his contract, we'd be paying an older and oft injured player HUGE money to recover before his next contract?

Games played:
https://www.rotoworld.com/football/nfl/player/8060/jj-watt/stats
2019: 8/16
2018: 16/16
2017: 5/16
2016: 3/16

2016-2019: 32/64 (Ages 27-30)
2011-2015: 80/80 (Ages 22-26)

Contract Details:
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/houston-texans/j.j.-watt-7726/
2019: If released today, $2M dead money. No more guaranteed after this season. *Highest paid Texan*
2020: $15.5M *Highest paid Texan*
2021: $17.5M *Highest paid Texan*
2022: UFA 33 yo

For this season JJ is the 3rd highest cap hit at his position; behind Melvin Ingram and Oliver Vernon. Currently for 2020 he drops to 10th, 2021 back up to 6th highest.
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/defensive-end/
15m and 17m is not bad for the production he gives when healthy imo. You won't find a better pass rusher at that price (not counting rookie contracts).

He'll be 31 and 32. That's not old
 

Double Barrel

Moderator
Staff member
Contributor's Club
This defense is going to look like the team the Harlem Globetrotters play without a consistent pass rush. Secondary is already getting torched, so I expect it to only get worse once opposing QBs have all day to make reads and take their time with passes.
 

PapaL

Loose Screw
15m and 17m is not bad for the production he gives when healthy imo. You won't find a better pass rusher at that price (not counting rookie contracts).

He'll be 31 and 32. That's not old
If age was the only concern, absolutely that's not bad. Sadly age ain't but a number and injuries are a thing.
 

beerlover

Hall of Fame
You were about the only one...the debate was Bortles or Kahlil Mack...Aaron Donald dropped to 13 because all of football thought he was too small be as dominant as he was in college...and I understand he is the best player out of that draft but he wasn't going number 1 overall.
point was, for me, we already had superstar DT JJ Watt and Texans weren’t going to spend #1 overall pick on same position they coveted the 3-4 outside pass rusher and between JD & Mack that was all on Romeo Crennel.
 

PapaL

Loose Screw
That's true but given that it's a pec and not a back or leg injury isn't it less concerning?
My line of thinking is this; is he likely to be healthy the remaining 2 years of his contract?
It's not just one injury to worry about with JJ. Pec, back, core, plus he had a cleanup on his knee in December. He's not going to get healthier the older he gets at this position he plays.
JJ's not the long term solution anymore.
 

TheKDog

Hall of Fame
My line of thinking is this; is he likely to be healthy the remaining 2 years of his contract?
It's not just one injury to worry about with JJ. Pec, back, core, plus he had a cleanup on his knee in December. He's not going to get healthier the older he gets at this position he plays.
JJ's not the long term solution anymore.
Not long term, just two more years
 

Lucky

Moderator
Staff member
I don't think there's a doubt the Texans bring Watt back, if he wants to continue. I could see a case for retirement. But, I don't think J.J. wants to end his career like this. If it were a back or knee issue, it's a different story for everyone.
 

Mangler

Veteran
Pectoral tears are no career enders. Watt will return, and I’m sure he’d restructure his contract to help the team out knowing his window is closing. He did so shortly after getting his 100M deal, and I’m sure he’ll do it this time. I just hope we have Caserio, or whoever Cal is targeting, to select our DE if the future!
 

banned1976

American
Pectoral tears are no career enders. Watt will return, and I’m sure he’d restructure his contract to help the team out knowing his window is closing. He did so shortly after getting his 100M deal, and I’m sure he’ll do it this time. I just hope we have Caserio, or whoever Cal is targeting, to select our DE if the future!
Good defensive linemen go off the board relatively quickly these days. Going to be hard to fill all the holes in the defensive backfield and address the d-line in upcoming drafts with what they have left.
 

Uncle Rico

Ur apology should be as loud as Ur disrespect was
Whats really interesting to me, especially on the situational side of things, is that if calmer heads would have prevailed, you probably could have anticipated a Watt injury before a Clowney injury (at least this year) and getting rid of him just because you didnt want to commit long term just futher hindered your ability to compete THIS year. Just proof of how inept this regime truly is, how how limited their foresigh is due to lack of experience and ability to manage properly.

You would think O'Brien coming from the Master of Situational Fooball in the Hoodie he would have a better understanding of these things, instead he just slams his iron fist down on the table and worries about the mess later. Sad.
 

TheKDog

Hall of Fame
@Cody_Stoots

The #Texans have plenty of picks already out to other teams making it seemingly difficult to trade more picks. 2020 1st - MIA (Tusnsil) 3rd - OAK (Conley) 3rd or 4th - CLE (Johnson) 6th - NE (Crossen) 2021 1st - MIA (Tusnsil) 2nd - MIA (Tusnsil)


What are the odds the 2020 2nd round pick and 2021 3rd round pick get traded? Like a 90% chance?
 

Scooter

Funky
Pectoral tears are no career enders. Watt will return, and I’m sure he’d restructure his contract to help the team out knowing his window is closing. He did so shortly after getting his 100M deal, and I’m sure he’ll do it this time. I just hope we have Caserio, or whoever Cal is targeting, to select our DE if the future!
It's not just this injury. He's going to work himself back whether he plays or not. Enough random speculation has hinted at him unsure of retirement before this season. He's financially set, he's emotionally set (engaged at least), his parents are provided for, little brothers don't need his help, and outside of joining the Patriots for a ring he's accomplished career goals.

Maybe if he listened to Scoot he wouldn't have a depressing list of season ending random open field injuries.
 
You're all-in because of the Tunsil, Johnson, Conley, Crossen, Clowney trades. I think you keep JJ regardless of the money in hopes you can get a similar level of production when he returns. The draft cupboard is empty, may as well roll the dice on a proven player with a shaky injury history who happens to be the best player the franchise has ever had. I don't say that to get sentimental just that I'd rather roll the dice with him given his past history of overcoming injuries and resuming high levels of production.

Regardless, this is the one downside to going all-in with a roster with some glaring holes (that happened to be obvious pre-Tunsil trade).
 

Texecutioner

Hall of Fame
This is one of those moments where people start wondering about how this team is going to replace their pass rushers, improve their secondary, and continue to get pieces to help the Oline out. But nah, I can guarantee that those guys that swore that Tunsil was the only thing they could do and will never admit what a catastrophic mistake that was in the next few years. The Texans will be at a big disadvantage to fill a lot of positions and I warned of that the minute that awful trade was made. This was your first big domino to fall. There will be more. Watt will have played a season and a half in the last 4 years basically. Its time to trade him or cut bait when we can if he isn't willing to restructure. I love Watt to death, but the team will need that cap space to use on FA's now.

You're all-in because of the Tunsil, Johnson, Conley, Crossen, Clowney trades. I think you keep JJ regardless of the money in hopes you can get a similar level of production when he returns. The draft cupboard is empty, may as well roll the dice on a proven player with a shaky injury history who happens to be the best player the franchise has ever had. I don't say that to get sentimental just that I'd rather roll the dice with him given his past history of overcoming injuries and resuming high levels of production.

Regardless, this is the one downside to going all-in with a roster with some glaring holes (that happened to be obvious pre-Tunsil trade).
If the Texans win the SB this year, then I'll retract everything I said about that trade, because winning a SB is worth it for a team with so much poor history. Picking him up never made them instant contenders though. This team was 10-6 last season with a broken Oline. That trade was never something that had to be done for what they lost. No way in hell.
 

TheKDog

Hall of Fame
This is one of those moments where people start wondering about how this team is going to replace their pass rushers, improve their secondary, and continue to get pieces to help the Oline out. But nah, I can guarantee that those guys that swore that Tunsil was the only thing they could do and will never admit what a catastrophic mistake that was in the next few years. The Texans will be at a big disadvantage to fill a lot of positions and I warned of that the minute that awful trade was made. This was your first big domino to fall. There will be more. Watt will have played a season and a half in the last 4 years basically. Its time to trade him or cut bait when we can if he isn't willing to restructure. I love Watt to death, but the team will need that cap space to use on FA's now.



If the Texans win the SB this year, then I'll retract everything I said about that trade, because winning a SB is worth it for a team with so much poor history. Picking him up never made them instant contenders though. This team was 10-6 last season with a broken Oline. That trade was never something that had to be done for what they lost. No way in hell.
I agree with what you're saying but I think Watt at $15m is a good deal. We're gonna see just how awful the defense is without him
 

steelbtexan

Hall of Fame
They don't have a 3rd or 6th next year either.

In 2021 they don't have a 1st or a 2nd.

But they'll have even fewer soon
They will have a comp 3rd. Possibly 2. Also could have a couple of late Rd comp picks You know this or at least you should know this before posting.
 

edo783

Hall of Fame
IMO we need to be talking to Mo Wilkerson. He should make a fair to midlin filler at JJs spot. Should come fairly cheap since he is at home on the couch.
 
https://twitter.com/JJWatt/status/1188609476376616962

Watt out for the season with a torn Pec. Will he hang it up for good?

How do we generate pressure without him? Will we make another trade?
I do not think Watt will hang it up for good. As far as how we generate pressure, we drafted a young man for that purpose. I have faith in Charles Omenihu getting more playing time and doing a good job at it. I do not think he will be good enough to totally replace JJ but he will do at least half as good and I think that will be plenty. I also read they plan on giving more reps to Carlos Watkins. I think the cream will rise to the top.
 

Uncle Rico

Ur apology should be as loud as Ur disrespect was
We would have compensatory picks anyway. It doesn't it make it fine to get ripped off on trades
One 3rd round and Two 7th round compensatory picks dont really float my boat. Further depressing is if you look at the record of 3rd round draft picks under Bill OBrien. Hey we might hit on the next Tom Brady with those two 7th rounders, thats always a hot topic around here!
 

TheKDog

Hall of Fame
One 3rd round and Two 7th round compensatory picks dont really float my boat. Further depressing is if you look at the record of 3rd round draft picks under Bill OBrien. Hey we might hit on the next Tom Brady with those two 7th rounders, thats always a hot topic around here!
He'll just trade them anyway or throw them in his doghouse (Kahale Warring)

And I just don't like the logic of "let's trade away picks because we have compensatory picks coming." Every team can have them as part of their draft capital.
 

steelbtexan

Hall of Fame
He'll just trade them anyway or throw them in his doghouse (Kahale Warring)

And I just don't like the logic of "let's trade away picks because we have compensatory picks coming." Every team can have them as part of their draft capital.
When you trade for Conley (Who's probably more talented than anybody they can draft late in the 3rd rd) you're getting a talented guy who's under contract for 3 more yrs that can help you in an area of weakness now.

What pick would you have been willing to trade for Conley.
 

TheKDog

Hall of Fame
When you trade for Conley (Who's probably more talented than anybody they can draft late in the 3rd rd) you're getting a talented guy who's under contract for 3 more yrs that can help you in an area of weakness now.

What pick would you have been willing to trade for Conley.
Considering he has struggled and is going to cost $10m next year then be a free agent I wouldn't give up more than a 5
 

steelbtexan

Hall of Fame
Considering he has struggled and is going to cost $10m next year then be a free agent I wouldn't give up more than a 5
He's under contract for this and 2 more yrs if they pick up his 5th yr option. I thought you were the poster singing the virtues of the rookie contract?

Care to give me a link that says he's going to make 10 mil next yr.
 

TheKDog

Hall of Fame
He's under contract for this and 2 more yrs if they pick up his 5th yr option. I thought you were the poster singing the virtues of the rookie contract?

Care to give me a link that says he's going to make 10 mil next yr.
Yeah you're right, it's his 5th year option that would be $10m. Still too much for a guy who isn't good imo
 

mussop

Hall of Fame
He'll just trade them anyway or throw them in his doghouse (Kahale Warring)

And I just don't like the logic of "let's trade away picks because we have compensatory picks coming." Every team can have them as part of their draft capital.
Ask yourself this, Where would we be right now without those trades?
 

Texansballer74

Hall of Fame
This off season we should trade JJ Watt. We should be able to get a 2nd and possibly a 4th round pick, and few veteran players.
 

Speedy

Yeller Dweller
Ask yourself this, Where would we be right now without those trades?
We'd be worse. But we're not good even after these trades.
Would we be worse? The only trade that's really had any impact positively is Tunsil. That's allowed them to have a halfway decent o-line when healthy. Stills could end up positive but when he's not hurt, he's been Jekyll & Hyde so far. The Duke Johnson trade hasn't really had any impact one way or the other because his talents have been underutilized. Carlos Hyde? 4.2 YPC, 68 YPG. Miller gave you 4.6 and 69.5 last year. And yes, you are worse off with the JD trade.

So where would we be without those trades, save for Hyde which you had to make? Probably about right where we are. Middling.
 

powda

You forgot the briefcase!
Would we be worse? The only trade that's really had any impact positively is Tunsil. That's allowed them to have a halfway decent o-line when healthy. Stills could end up positive but when he's not hurt, he's been Jekyll & Hyde so far. The Duke Johnson trade hasn't really had any impact one way or the other because his talents have been underutilized. Carlos Hyde? 4.2 YPC, 68 YPG. Miller gave you 4.6 and 69.5 last year. And yes, you are worse off with the JD trade.

So where would we be without those trades, save for Hyde which you had to make? Probably about right where we are. Middling.
Tunsil has been a positive, and Watson alive had to be our priority if we had any chance this year. The negative of that trade will be abundantly clear the next 2 drafts. I hated the deal initially but I'm leaning toward worth it. Just quit with the Gd false starts already.

Seeing coutee drop off and knowing fuller would get hurt makes Stills worth it. We've already seen him play really well. I wouldn't call him dr jeckle and Mr hyde. I'd call him good at times and average at his worst. Stills was someone I thought of as a throw away in that trade. I was wrong - i like him.

I like Hyde and think he's better then Miller. He may not have the long speed to bump his ypc average but he grinds out tough yards Miller never could. I agree Duke isn't utilized correctly and if we dont start using him right it was a bad trade. I'm guessing he'll have a couple of huge plays this year to prove me wrong but I wont hold my breath.

The Clowney trade was an absolute disaster. I put it right up there with the oz trade. Mishandled, misplayed, and humiliating. We got a mid to late 3rd round pick and a couple of struggling jags for clowney. - it's not forgivable. To make matters worse we lost watt for the season. How's that for salt in our wound?

The Conley trade was forced by injury and it's to early to tell I think.

That said, we probably are middling. Not because of the trades ,but because of the injuries on defense and stupid game management.This offense has had great moments I've never seen before and I believe the trades played a big part in that.

Jmo ofcourse.
 

thunderkyss

It's good to be me... again.
Staff member
Contributor's Club
I like Hyde and think he's better then Miller. He may not have the long speed to bump his ypc average but he grinds out tough yards
I wonder why we're not seeing more pounding in the red zone. I wonder what happened to Cullen Gillaspia. I think we're leaving yards out there by not using pro sets. Why did we draft a FB anyway.

The Conley trade was forced by injury and it's to early to tell I think.
I think we've got good defensive position coaches, led by Crennel. Last year we were seriously lacking talent on the back end. Now, we're deep. Barely deep enough, but deep.

Roby & Conley both have good size, speed, & make up speed. LonnieJ, PGrimes, Crossen, I still like Body Calhoun, glad he's back.

I think once Romeo has been able to keep the three best healthy for a while we'll have a secondary worthy of a playoff team.
 

KarlK

Waterboy
Ask yourself this, Where would we be right now without those trades?
We’re be much worse than NE under either scenario.
But at least the future would be brighter if we had some draft picks.
And a GM that knew how to use them.
 

powda

You forgot the briefcase!
We’re be much worse than NE under either scenario.
But at least the future would be brighter if we had some draft picks.
And a GM that knew how to use them.

Would the present be darker without a premier left tackle? Would the future be darker knowing we still had to use a high pick on a tackle less established then tunsil?
 


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