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Watson’s a top 5 qb. Do you agree?

FuzzyLogic

Mathematically Possible
I think a throw to Hopkins would have been risky there, as the corner on Fuller was right in the passing lane. Sure, he could have lob'd it over him, but that's a much slower throw, and Hopkins' corner could have possibly break in front of Hop to deflect the pass. Sure, a completion to Hopkins there is a possibility, but I think it's a low percentage throw. My guess is someone ran a wrong route, so DW bailed on Fuller & Hop as options quick.
A lot of good stuff posted - my last bit on this. We often hear about, how in this offense, everyone needs to make the same read, be on the same page, etc.

For me, I would have like to have seen Fuller attack the middle of the field, the same route just break to the inside since both he and the TE on the opposite side break to the outside, big hole in the middle. If Fuller cuts inside the DB maybe/probably takes a step or two to follow which leaves an open lane for the throw to Hopkins. If it was an option route and Fuller choose inside, the spacing would have been much better. All in my opinion, of course, I'm just a dude looking at plays while sitting in a recliner eating Cheetos what the hell do I know.

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I hear what you are saying, but he was going the other way. He was trying to get back & more or less fell.

Maybe. That's how I remembered it watching the replays during the game. I'll go back and watch it.
Maybe, to me, it seemed most of his momentum was gone as he was slowing down to sit on a spot - but I'll admit I may be biased and expect these elite athletes to overcome the laws of physics at times and it just isn't always possible.

Any other plays that stand out or people would like to discuss?
 

dream_team

Hall of Fame
A lot of good stuff posted - my last bit on this. We often hear about, how in this offense, everyone needs to make the same read, be on the same page, etc.

For me, I would have like to have seen Fuller attack the middle of the field, the same route just break to the inside since both he and the TE on the opposite side break to the outside, big hole in the middle. If Fuller cuts inside the DB maybe/probably takes a step or two to follow which leaves an open lane for the throw to Hopkins. If it was an option route and Fuller choose inside, the spacing would have been much better. All in my opinion, of course, I'm just a dude looking at plays while sitting in a recliner eating Cheetos what the hell do I know.
Agreed that someone should have been attacking the middle of the field. I don't know why everyone ran a sideline route? This leads me to believe someone ran a wrong route.
 

JB

Old Curmudgeon
Contributor's Club
A lot of good stuff posted - my last bit on this. We often hear about, how in this offense, everyone needs to make the same read, be on the same page, etc.

For me, I would have like to have seen Fuller attack the middle of the field, the same route just break to the inside since both he and the TE on the opposite side break to the outside, big hole in the middle. If Fuller cuts inside the DB maybe/probably takes a step or two to follow which leaves an open lane for the throw to Hopkins. If it was an option route and Fuller choose inside, the spacing would have been much better. All in my opinion, of course, I'm just a dude looking at plays while sitting in a recliner eating Cheetos what the hell do I know.

View attachment 5171



Maybe, to me, it seemed most of his momentum was gone as he was slowing down to sit on a spot - but I'll admit I may be biased and expect these elite athletes to overcome the laws of physics at times and it just isn't always possible.

Any other plays that stand out or people would like to discuss?
I think Fuller should have run a post. That safety needs to commit
 

austins23

Hall of Fame
I think the throw to Hopkins is there and the spacing is fine when you watch the video. If Watson anticipates the break, DHop is going to catch the ball most of the time if it's shaded towards the sideline. DHop might be a little late in his break, but that should still have been his target. Put it where no one else can get it and live to play another down if DHop isn't ready for it (it was 2nd down).
Looks like Duke was open. When Watson turns to look to the left Duke is open at the 13/14 yd line. Throw it on a rope, TD. Looks like Watson was feeling the pressure from the right side and double clutched. Looks like he had time to throw it.
But I'm just a Cheeto eater as well.
 

JB

Old Curmudgeon
Contributor's Club
Looks like Duke was open. When Watson turns to look to the left Duke is open at the 13/14 yd line. Throw it on a rope, TD. Looks like Watson was feeling the pressure from the right side and double clutched. Looks like he had time to throw it.
But I'm just a Cheeto eater as well.
Duke was definitely open 'til he decided to hit his knees. A pass to the far pylon is a TD
 

Double Barrel

Moderator
Staff member
Contributor's Club
Fantastic analysis conversation!

THAT'S the great part of this forum, breaking down football, sharing perspectives and analysis, regardless of agreement/disagreement.

I learn a LOT from you guys with these kinds of conversations. Very cool.
 

dream_team

Hall of Fame
Fantastic analysis conversation!

THAT'S the great part of this forum, breaking down football, sharing perspectives and analysis, regardless of agreement/disagreement.

I learn a LOT from you guys with these kinds of conversations. Very cool.
I enjoy learning there's more to the equation of an interception than just, "Why did you throw that Deshaun!?" Oh man... am I sounding like Brock when he would say, "Every interception has a story." Yikes!
 

Double Barrel

Moderator
Staff member
Contributor's Club
I enjoy learning there's more to the equation of an interception than just, "Why did you throw that Deshaun!?" Oh man... am I sounding like Brock when he would say, "Every interception has a story." Yikes!
I agree completely. I think this place would be boring if we all agreed on everything.

The forum really shines when different perspectives are shared about the same event/play, because there's a lot of experience and perception involved with each individual opinion. And since we do not have access to the exact play and audibles, there is sort of a collective intelligence that accumulates and it's a really cool thing to read as a fan.

I just wanted to take the time to express appreciation for everyone involved and hope it is a trend that continues for the long-term health of the board.
 

Uncle Rico

Ur apology should be as loud as Ur disrespect was
Check out how some professionals break down one of our passing concepts. Look how it highlights Watson’s read and recognition ability to go with the “anticipatory passing” issue that has materialized. Deshaun is throwing to DEEP “spots” where he knows the receiver will be AFTER making his progressions AND after making the key read.

The Vacarro INT happens to a lot of QBs. We would have a pretty long tape of Brady’s career mistakes to talk about if we wanted to.

Its marvelous to see a young man in his 35-40th game understanding NFL defenses. He doesn’t get confused.

 

Corrosion

Idealist
Staff member
Agreed that someone should have been attacking the middle of the field. I don't know why everyone ran a sideline route? This leads me to believe someone ran a wrong route.
There seems to be a theme in this offense where two guys end up in close proximity … it happens multiple times a game.

They could be running the wrong routes / making the wrong reads but damn , if that's the case , they are doing it an awful lot.

I don't buy them collectively making the same mistakes time and again. You have to believe at some point OB gets sick of it and benches someone. Apparently he did bench Coutee … but the same thing has happened with literally every pass catcher.
 

dream_team

Hall of Fame
There seems to be a theme in this offense where two guys end up in close proximity … it happens multiple times a game.

They could be running the wrong routes / making the wrong reads but damn , if that's the case , they are doing it an awful lot.

I don't buy them collectively making the same mistakes time and again. You have to believe at some point OB gets sick of it and benches someone. Apparently he did bench Coutee … but the same thing has happened with literally every pass catcher.
Yup, that definitely is a concern. When I re-watch ineffective plays on All-22, it always looks like at least one player is doing something not right. A receiver running a wrong route, an RB running a route when he should be blocking, a lineman missing his assignment, etc. What I don't know is if making these type of mistakes common for an NFL offense, is our coach not doing a good job teaching the plays, or we just have a bunch of dumb players.
 

Corrosion

Idealist
Staff member
Yup, that definitely is a concern. When I re-watch ineffective plays on All-22, it always looks like at least one player is doing something not right. A receiver running a wrong route, an RB running a route when he should be blocking, a lineman missing his assignment, etc. What I don't know is if making these type of mistakes common for an NFL offense, is our coach not doing a good job teaching the plays, or we just have a bunch of dumb players.

Or maybe they are doing exactly what is asked of them …. and the problem is the play design itself.

There are just too many instances of "WTF was he doing" to be solely on the players.
 

zshawn10

All Pro
Where Deshaun Watson's 2019 stats rank:

67.3% completion rate – 6th
7.8 YPA – 13th
6.63 adjusted net yards/attempt – 12th
3,852 yards – 13th
26 passing TDs – T8th
47 explosive completions – T14th
413 rushing yards – 4th
7 rushing TDs -T2nd
— Aaron Reiss (@aaronjreiss) December 30, 2019
 

Texecutioner

Hall of Fame
So did Watson end as a top 5 QB this season? The Texans went 10-5 with him.

33 TD's to 7 INT's and 11 Fumbles and threw for 3,852 yards.

I'd say that you could argue that he is and you could argue that he isn't.

The only 4 QB's that are truly elite and for sure in the top 5 this season to me are Jackson, Mahomes, Brees, and Wilson. That leaves one more spot.
 

Earl34

Veteran
So did Watson end as a top 5 QB this season? The Texans went 10-5 with him.

33 TD's to 7 INT's and 11 Fumbles and threw for 3,852 yards.

I'd say that you could argue that he is and you could argue that he isn't.

The only 4 QB's that are truly elite and for sure in the top 5 this season to me are Jackson, Mahomes, Brees, and Wilson. That leaves one more spot.
After the Jags game in London, I thought he was trending toward the top 5. However, he has not played as well or efficient as he did early in the season. Seeing he has an issue with his back, maybe the back and/or ankle has been bothering him. I know it wasn't all on him, but his performances against the Ravens, Broncos and Bucs while throwing more INTs in the last six weeks of the season, drops him out of the top 5.
 

Uncle Rico

Ur apology should be as loud as Ur disrespect was
After the Jags game in London, I thought he was trending toward the top 5. However, he has not played as well or efficient as he did early in the season. Seeing he has an issue with his back, maybe the back and/or ankle has been bothering him. I know it wasn't all on him, but his performances against the Ravens, Broncos and Bucs while throwing more INTs in the last six weeks of the season, drops him out of the top 5.
Not health related at all - there were cracks in the armor prior to the health issues. I can see some visible signs of Watson losing confidence in the offense and in OBrien. Some very vague statements he's made regarding scoring opportunity, his body language on the field. His recent heated exchange with OBrien.

this offense sucks. you cant expect 11 different guys to make proper reads 75 times a game. Its up to OBrien to "dumb it down" if thats what he has to do. Sht the man had an ivy leaguer in Fitzmagic who couldnt figure it out either.

NOBODY CAN RUN OBRIENS "OFFENSE" ... NOBODY. Its a relic of a bygone era in football and its showing its age more and more each year. The offensive numbers POP because you have invested on the offense EXCLUSIVELY and when you have 3 Pro Bowlers on that side of the ball you would think they should enjoy success on mere talent alone.

God almighty the team goes out and runs VANILLA yesterday and looked the best it had in 6 weeks!!! That should tell you all you need to know.
 

steelbtexan

Hall of Fame
Peyton Manning had his worst year when he won the SB with the Broncos.
Heck, he might have two good games all year, none in the playoffs.
Comparing Watson and his inconsistencies to Manni
Not health related at all - there were cracks in the armor prior to the health issues. I can see some visible signs of Watson losing confidence in the offense and in OBrien. Some very vague statements he's made regarding scoring opportunity, his body language on the field. His recent heated exchange with OBrien.

this offense sucks. you cant expect 11 different guys to make proper reads 75 times a game. Its up to OBrien to "dumb it down" if thats what he has to do. Sht the man had an ivy leaguer in Fitzmagic who couldnt figure it out either.

NOBODY CAN RUN OBRIENS "OFFENSE" ... NOBODY. Its a relic of a bygone era in football and its showing its age more and more each year. The offensive numbers POP because you have invested on the offense EXCLUSIVELY and when you have 3 Pro Bowlers on that side of the ball you would think they should enjoy success on mere talent alone.

God almighty the team goes out and runs VANILLA yesterday and looked the best it had in 6 weeks!!! That should tell you all you need to know.
If you say so

For sure DW4 can't run it.
 

Double Barrel

Moderator
Staff member
Contributor's Club
Not health related at all - there were cracks in the armor prior to the health issues. I can see some visible signs of Watson losing confidence in the offense and in OBrien. Some very vague statements he's made regarding scoring opportunity, his body language on the field. His recent heated exchange with OBrien.

this offense sucks. you cant expect 11 different guys to make proper reads 75 times a game. Its up to OBrien to "dumb it down" if thats what he has to do. Sht the man had an ivy leaguer in Fitzmagic who couldnt figure it out either.

NOBODY CAN RUN OBRIENS "OFFENSE" ... NOBODY. Its a relic of a bygone era in football and its showing its age more and more each year. The offensive numbers POP because you have invested on the offense EXCLUSIVELY and when you have 3 Pro Bowlers on that side of the ball you would think they should enjoy success on mere talent alone.

God almighty the team goes out and runs VANILLA yesterday and looked the best it had in 6 weeks!!! That should tell you all you need to know.
Tex mentioned top 4 earlier: Wilson, Mahomes, Jackson, Brees.

They've all got something in common: coaches that scheme and gameplan according to their QBs talents.

This is where O'Brien is failing Watson. He's too stubborn to change his precious NE scheme. He wants it his way or no way. Put Watson on any of those other teams with those other coaches and he's flourishing under those systems instead of constantly trying to conform to his OC/HC/GM's demands. Watson has to overthink instead of playing naturally in a system designed for him to excel.

The cracks in this team are the direct result of O'Brien's hubris and arrogance. He constantly states that inconsistencies are a direct reflection of the head coach. Why won't people believe him? He's the football expert, after all.
 

Earl34

Veteran
Not health related at all - there were cracks in the armor prior to the health issues. I can see some visible signs of Watson losing confidence in the offense and in OBrien. Some very vague statements he's made regarding scoring opportunity, his body language on the field. His recent heated exchange with OBrien.

this offense sucks. you cant expect 11 different guys to make proper reads 75 times a game. Its up to OBrien to "dumb it down" if thats what he has to do. Sht the man had an ivy leaguer in Fitzmagic who couldnt figure it out either.

NOBODY CAN RUN OBRIENS "OFFENSE" ... NOBODY. Its a relic of a bygone era in football and its showing its age more and more each year. The offensive numbers POP because you have invested on the offense EXCLUSIVELY and when you have 3 Pro Bowlers on that side of the ball you would think they should enjoy success on mere talent alone.

God almighty the team goes out and runs VANILLA yesterday and looked the best it had in 6 weeks!!! That should tell you all you need to know.
Excellent points. For some reason, your post reminds me of Chris Palmer and Kevin Gilbride. Two guys who were suppose to be either QB gurus or good offensive coaches. However, due to their Run & Shoot backgrounds, their offenses were based on all these QB/WR option routes. Eventually, because of their complex schemes, both would never have any sustained success as an OC or HC.

Anyone remember Capers hired Palmer for his reputation as a QB guru? He was fired after TWO games in 2005 with his offense averaging 7 points and being the worst passing offense in the NFL.
 
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Texecutioner

Hall of Fame
Tex mentioned top 4 earlier: Wilson, Mahomes, Jackson, Brees.

They've all got something in common: coaches that scheme and gameplan according to their QBs talents.

This is where O'Brien is failing Watson. He's too stubborn to change his precious NE scheme. He wants it his way or no way. Put Watson on any of those other teams with those other coaches and he's flourishing under those systems instead of constantly trying to conform to his OC/HC/GM's demands. Watson has to overthink instead of playing naturally in a system designed for him to excel.

The cracks in this team are the direct result of O'Brien's hubris and arrogance. He constantly states that inconsistencies are a direct reflection of the head coach. Why won't people believe him? He's the football expert, after all.
I think you could argue that Watson is #5 though. You could also argue he is further back at like 7 or 8 or something too. Either way, he's a very good top 10 QB which all teams want.
 

Double Barrel

Moderator
Staff member
Contributor's Club
I think you could argue that Watson is #5 though. You could also argue he is further back at like 7 or 8 or something too. Either way, he's a very good top 10 QB which all teams want.
Stats will tell you that he's top 10 (like you said, 7 or 8), but the eye test says top 5 (obviously IMO). He just needs to play like a top 5 this next weekend or all of this is pointless.

Postseason success is what ultimately defines greatness. He's shown he's got it in HS and college, so now just needs to forget about last year and make it happen on Saturday.
 

Texecutioner

Hall of Fame
Stats will tell you that he's top 10 (like you said, 7 or 8), but the eye test says top 5 (obviously IMO). He just needs to play like a top 5 this next weekend or all of this is pointless.

Postseason success is what ultimately defines greatness. He's shown he's got it in HS and college, so now just needs to forget about last year and make it happen on Saturday.
Gonna be hard to see his full potential in the playoffs until he has a new HC to me. At least one that isn't O'Brien.
 

Earl34

Veteran
Tex mentioned top 4 earlier: Wilson, Mahomes, Jackson, Brees.

They've all got something in common: coaches that scheme and gameplan according to their QBs talents.

This is where O'Brien is failing Watson. He's too stubborn to change his precious NE scheme. He wants it his way or no way. Put Watson on any of those other teams with those other coaches and he's flourishing under those systems instead of constantly trying to conform to his OC/HC/GM's demands. Watson has to overthink instead of playing naturally in a system designed for him to excel.

The cracks in this team are the direct result of O'Brien's hubris and arrogance. He constantly states that inconsistencies are a direct reflection of the head coach. Why won't people believe him? He's the football expert, after all.
The points you are making is why I hope the Jags fire Marrone and O'Brien hires him as assistant HC. He might be one of the few people who can provide constructive criticism to O'Brien. Marrone was the OC for the Saints with Payton, Brees and Reggie Bush. Also, with his experience coaching a division opponent, he can provide O'Brien with some insight on trends or weaknesses the Jags tried to exploit against the Texans' offense.
 
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Uncle Rico

Ur apology should be as loud as Ur disrespect was
Excellent points. For some reason, your post reminds me of Chris Palmer and Kevin Gilbride. Two guys who were suppose to be either QB gurus or good offensive coaches. However, due to their Run & Shoot backgrounds, their offenses were based on all these QB/WR option routes. Eventually, because of their complex schemes, both would never have any sustained success as an OC or HC.

Anyone remember Capers hired Palmer for his reputation as a QB guru? He was fired after TWO games in 2005 with his offense averaging 7 points and being the worst passing offense in the NFL.
Football has always been very fluid and malleable. The best ideas usually originate at the high school levels and work their way up. Spread offense has taken the NFL by storm, but it really isn’t new. NFL teams just don’t practice option defense as much as they should. Once they get the assignments down I expect it to temper the rage also. I’ve heard/read that Belichek has even looked at some high school principles such as Katy High Schools versión of the 3-4 and how fast they are ready to defend any offense and yet look at what Northshore did to them.

the best coaches are always “borrowing” from other coaches. Little Shanny routinely incorporates other concepts into his tried and true WCO so that it looks altogether different. He’s on record saying he studies Josh McDaniels every week to see what new wrinkles he’s inputting.

Funny you mention the RNS because at times that’s what I feel OBrien is trying to do and why Cover 4 can do so much damage to his philosophy.
 

Earl34

Veteran
Football has always been very fluid and malleable. The best ideas usually originate at the high school levels and work their way up. Spread offense has taken the NFL by storm, but it really isn’t new. NFL teams just don’t practice option defense as much as they should. Once they get the assignments down I expect it to temper the rage also. I’ve heard/read that Belichek has even looked at some high school principles such as Katy High Schools versión of the 3-4 and how fast they are ready to defend any offense and yet look at what Northshore did to them.

the best coaches are always “borrowing” from other coaches. Little Shanny routinely incorporates other concepts into his tried and true WCO so that it looks altogether different. He’s on record saying he studies Josh McDaniels every week to see what new wrinkles he’s inputting.

Funny you mention the RNS because at times that’s what I feel OBrien is trying to do and why Cover 4 can do so much damage to his philosophy.
Exactly! Also, the way DB and edge blitzes do so much damage to his philosophy. I can still see Rod Woodson coming off the slot and blitzing Moon.

Thinking about the R&S, it's probably is another reason why I despise O'Brien's love for the shotgun formation. I'm a big proponent of running the same plays from various formations. This constant shotgun playbook, is lazy, unimaginative, predictable, ineffective and doesn't always help your young QB or WRs.
 

mws

Waterboy
Excellent points. For some reason, your post reminds me of Chris Palmer and Kevin Gilbride. Two guys who were suppose to be either QB gurus or good offensive coaches. However, due to their Run & Shoot backgrounds, their offenses were based on all these QB/WR option routes. Eventually, because of their complex schemes, both would never have any sustained success as an OC or HC.
Gilbride was terrible the year & a half he was HC of the Chargers but he was OC for the Giants from 2006 - 2013 including both years they won the Super Bowl (even though an argument could be made that their defense should get most of the credit). Still he has 2 Super Bowl rings as OC.

He will also be the HC of the XFL team the New York Guardians.
 

Earl34

Veteran
Gilbride was terrible the year & a half he was HC of the Chargers but he was OC for the Giants from 2006 - 2013 including both years they won the Super Bowl (even though an argument could be made that their defense should get most of the credit). Still he has 2 Super Bowl rings as OC.

He will also be the HC of the XFL team the New York Guardians.
I would counter Gilbride was running Coughlin's offense with R&S elements to his passing game. I give him credit for the 2 SB wins, however, keep in mind, he was fired by the Giants because the fans were calling him, Kevin KillDrive. That's why I specifically mentioned sustained success.
 

CloakNNNdagger

Hall of Fame
Yep, so did Eli Manning (twice), Brad Johnson, and Trent Dilfer.

Like O'Brien has said multiple times, inconsistency is a reflection of the head coach. He's the expert, so I'll take his word for it.
I think in these discussions, people forget that this is happening with the closest QB tutelage of the most respected NFL QB coach Carl Smith. Somewhere along the way, the student captain of the ship must be put under the microscope for closer scrutiny.
 

Thorn

Dirty Old Man
If people claim not top 5 I could understand but top 10 is a certainty. Only Steelbtexan would argue against him being top 10.
I'm not sure steelB would argue against a top ten, but we all know he'll have no part of a top five. LOL

Under a different coaching system Watson has more than enough talent to be a top 5, but here, we'll only get to see it occasionally.
 

amazing80

Fire Billy O
I'm not sure steelB would argue against a top ten, but we all know he'll have no part of a top five. LOL

Under a different coaching system Watson has more than enough talent to be a top 5, but here, we'll only get to see it occasionally.
Have you read his posts about Watson? He’s ranked guys like Josh Allen above Watson.
 

steelbtexan

Hall of Fame
Have you read his posts about Watson? He’s ranked guys like Josh Allen above Watson.
I'm talking about who has the potential to be a top QB. Neither one of them are top 5 right now. Give Allen the weapons DW4 has and DW4 the Buffalo receivers and the results would be very different.

Plus Allen would be a much better fit for what BOB wants to do.
 

Texecutioner

Hall of Fame
I'm talking about who has the potential to be a top QB. Neither one of them are top 5 right now. Give Allen the weapons DW4 has and DW4 the Buffalo receivers and the results would be very different.

Plus Allen would be a much better fit for what BOB wants to do.
Well also if you insert Watson on the Bills that team might be having the same success. Allen has not shown that he is a better passer or a better runner than Watson.
 

steelbtexan

Hall of Fame
Well also if you insert Watson on the Bills that team might be having the same success. Allen has not shown that he is a better passer or a better runner than Watson.
If Allen keeps improving like he has been he will be better.

I've seen very little improvement in DW4's game. Be that BOB not being able to coach him to improve or Dw4 not doing what's necessary to improve. This why I have everybody with their panties in a wad around here. I think most of the issues with DW4 cant be fixed regardless and the otherside dont realize it but I'm on their side and hope I'm wrong since DW4's going to be here atleast another 5-7 yrs.
 


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