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Tim Kelly Evaluation

xtruroyaltyx said:
I’ll be completely honest; If a defensive coach is hired and they keep Kelly around as the OC I wouldn’t view that as a bad thing.

Defense needs the most fixing anyways.

may be able to appease both JJ and Watson at the same time.
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The offense actually did OK last year. If we can beef up our D this year with a few players, upgrade the coaching and bring in a shiney new DC (maybe thats Weaver?) and turn the D into at least a middle of the league ranked D, we probably win 8 or 9 games.
 
I'm not high on Kelly and I'm not advocating for him, but I do see some value in continuity if he's retained.
A lot of that depends on who the HC is and what scheme is used.
For instance, if Bieniemy is HC, most of the continuity advantage is lost due to changing offensive system more than likely.
I'd be more on board with Kelly if the HC is a defensive guy and Kelly keeps the current system, but with some tweaks. And adding a good OL coach
 
michaelm said:
I'm not high on Kelly and I'm not advocating for him, but I do see some value in continuity if he's retained.
A lot of that depends on who the HC is and what scheme is used.
For instance, if Bieniemy is HC, most of the continuity advantage is lost due to changing offensive system more than likely.
I'd be more on board with Kelly if the HC is a defensive guy and Kelly keeps the current system, but with some tweaks. And adding a good OL coach
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I'm exactly the opposite.

I don't think there's as much difference in scheme as there used to be. The biggest thing is terminology. Back when Peyton Manning had Edgerin James, Brandon Stokely, & Dallas Clark, they ran the offense like it were a WCO, but it wasn't. Depending on what period we're talking about, the Patriots have been Air Raid, WCO, Smash Mouth power runs.

I don't want Tim Kelly without Bieniemy. I want Kelly to translate Bieniemy's scheme to the terminology the team already knows.

Without a coach that knows how to coach offense, Kelly has no value to me.
 
Seems to me that keeping Kelly around has one goal: appeasing Deshaun Watson.

The Texans were terrible on opening drives.

They seemed to always be playing from behind, especially with one of the worst defenses in the league. So a lot of Watson's numbers were against softer coverage defenses as opposing teams went into protect-the-lead mode. Are those stats potential fool's gold?

Texans run game was horrendous. I'm not convinced Kelly is much of anything, being that he's always been O'Brien's sidekick.

I guess I understand the logic of keeping him for now. But I'd hate for it to be conditional with a new head coach. Just seems like they would be baking the dysfunction into the cake.
 
Double Barrel said:
Seems to me that keeping Kelly around has one goal: appeasing Deshaun Watson.

The Texans were terrible on opening drives.

They seemed to always be playing from behind, especially with one of the worst defenses in the league. So a lot of Watson's numbers were against softer coverage defenses as opposing teams went into protect-the-lead mode. Are those stats potential fool's gold?

Texans run game was horrendous. I'm not convinced Kelly is much of anything, being that he's always been O'Brien's sidekick.

I guess I understand the logic of keeping him for now. But I'd hate for it to be conditional with a new head coach. Just seems like they would be baking the dysfunction into the cake.
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Just what I was going to post! Kelly is being kept to appease number four. If it works I hope Vienna me tells Kelly not to leave the dressing room
 
Regarding Tim Kelly;
O'Brien was always known for playing a player out of position. He did the same thing with Kelly when in 2014, he took a coach with a defensive background and made him an offensive assistant.
I wonder with Anthony Weaver leaving, the Texans are silly enough to think Tim Kelly can slide back over to the defensive side of the line after so many years.



Tim Kelly (American football) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
.
Kelly spent the 2008-09 seasons at Illinois-Wesleyan, where he was the defensive graduate assistant. He served as the defensive coordinator, defensive line coach and recruiting coordinator at Minnesota State Moorhead for the 2010 season. Starting in 2014, Kelly spent three years as offensive quality control coach for head coach Bill O'Brien and the Houston Texans. He also assisted Mike Devlin with the offensive line in 2016. He served as the tight ends coach in 2017 and 2018.[6] On February 5, 2019, Kelly was promoted to offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach of the Houston Texans.
 
Double Barrel said:
Seems to me that keeping Kelly around has one goal: appeasing Deshaun Watson.

The Texans were terrible on opening drives.

They seemed to always be playing from behind, especially with one of the worst defenses in the league. So a lot of Watson's numbers were against softer coverage defenses as opposing teams went into protect-the-lead mode. Are those stats potential fool's gold?

Texans run game was horrendous. I'm not convinced Kelly is much of anything, being that he's always been O'Brien's sidekick.

I guess I understand the logic of keeping him for now. But I'd hate for it to be conditional with a new head coach. Just seems like they would be baking the dysfunction into the cake.
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Something I brought up months ago and took a beating over.

Simple numbers don't always tell the story and in this case , that great offense that led the league in passing wasn't so great.
 
thunderkyss said:
In the last hour of Clint Stowrner’s show he mentioned Arthur Smith was the Titans OC through multiple regimes. He was in Tennessee before Vrabel was.
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Smith was in Tennessee prior to Vrabel, but as a TE coach. Vrabel hired Matt LaFleur from the Rams to be OC. When LaFleur left to Green Bay to be their HC, Smith was promoted to OC.

Not sure if the Titans continued to run LaFleur's offense, ran the previous Mike Mularkey offense that Smith had been exposed to, or Smith's own offense. I just don't see the comparison. The O'Brien offense is a failure propped up by a superstar QB. It doesn't work. I'm fine with Kelly making the next staff as a positional coach. But as OC? No way.
 
Corrosion said:
Something I brought up months ago and took a beating over.

Simple numbers don't always tell the story and in this case , that great offense that led the league in passing wasn't so great.
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No offense to DB, but just because he says it, doesn't make it true. We were seldom so far out of games that defenses went to prevent defense. Especially in the 4th qtr.
 
Lucky said:
Not sure if the Titans continued to run LaFleur's offense, ran the previous Mike Mularkey offense that Smith had been exposed to, or Smith's own offense. I just don't see the comparison. The O'Brien offense is a failure propped up by a superstar QB. It doesn't work. I'm fine with Kelly making the next staff as a positional coach. But as OC? No way.
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I am not advocating we keep O'Briens offense. Like I said, without an offensive minded HC, I don't want Kelly to stay. But if we're going to bring Bieniemy, I'd rather keep Kelly doing the OC things OCs do, with Bieniemy directing him. Leaving Bieniemy to do HC things.

If Bieniemy brings someone in he wants as an OC, that's great, even better. But the longer we wait... & we have to wait, chances of that becomes slimmer & slimmer.
 
thunderkyss said:
But if we're going to bring Bieniemy, I'd rather keep Kelly doing the OC things OCs do, with Bieniemy directing him. Leaving Bieniemy to do HC things.
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That's all up to Bieniemy, or whoever is the next HC. Sounds like rank speculation from The General and his talk radio buddies. Why I rarely listen to those guys and have XM Radio.
 
Corrosion said:
Something I brought up months ago and took a beating over.

Simple numbers don't always tell the story and in this case , that great offense that led the league in passing wasn't so great.
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I think the offense facing prevent defenses was more rare than you think. I think the offense put up big passing numbers for two reasons (besides DW just being a good player)

1. Team couldn't move the ball on the ground
2. The poor defense, forced the offense to constantly be aggressive the whole game
 
I can think of a couple of games off the top of my head where Watson accumulated "real" garbage time stats. The Chiefs game, the Ravens game, the Packers game, and MAYBE the Lions game just because they were having fun finally beating the crap out of someone they poured it on. The Bears and Browns games sucked. All the other games were legit statistical games imo.
 
Corrosion said:
Something I brought up months ago and took a beating over.

Simple numbers don't always tell the story and in this case , that great offense that led the league in passing wasn't so great.
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Yep. It's just analysis, so I always read your thoughts and appreciate the insight that you put into them.

Reminds me of Matt Stafford and his numbers. Yet the Lions have been terrible. This is a passing league. Defenses are now crippled by rules. Even mediocre QBs put up numbers.

So, like you, I just question the metrics of making individual stats the be all/end all of overall evaluations. I'm not advocating any perspective, but it's fair to ask basic questions.

thunderkyss said:
No offense to DB, but just because he says it, doesn't make it true. We were seldom so far out of games that defenses went to prevent defense. Especially in the 4th qtr.
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No offense taken. Please note that I never said prevent defense. Soft coverage is not the same.

Texans were always playing from behind, and with a lack of a run game, the only option was hero ball. Lots of stats that way, but the only stat that really matters is 4-12. Regardless of the "all pro season", it only netted four wins in the end (and two of those against an even worse team with Jacksonville).

And with all those individual QB stats, they were not good in the red zone. Ranking at 25th overall. Scoring is all that really matters on offense at the end of the day. Moving the ball well between the 20s but not walking away with TDs is what 4-12 teams can achieve.

In the end, I'm just not convinced that the O'Brien/Kelly offensive scheme is a good fit for Deshaun, in spite of the numbers. I think he would thrive in both Andy Reid's and Gary Kubiak's systems, all things considered.
 
Corrosion said:
Something I brought up months ago and took a beating over.

Simple numbers don't always tell the story and in this case , that great offense that led the league in passing wasn't so great.
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Right, because after one possession of a football game, teams are already in prevent the rest of the way. MFer ya'll need to get off that BS about Watson's game. Dude had NOTHING and still put up numbers. But when he gets shipped, you'll see. Have fun arguing that **** for eternity.
 
Speedy said:
Right, because after one possession of a football game, teams are already in prevent the rest of the way. MFer ya'll need to get off that BS about Watson's game. Dude had NOTHING and still put up numbers. But when he gets shipped, you'll see. Have fun arguing that **** for eternity.
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You can mf the players, owners, reporters, pepper poppin commercials, etc... but do not mf members.
 
thunderkyss said:
You can mf the players, owners, reporters, pepper poppin commercials, etc... but do not mf members.
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I don't see where a member was called a mfer. The mfer I used was expressive, like 'come on man', dammit man, WTF? So holster up there, mate.
 
Double Barrel said:
Even mediocre QBs put up numbers.
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Only they don't put up numbers. 4,800+ yards passing, 33 TDs to 7 INTs, a 70% completion rate and the 2nd highest passer rating among starting QBs is something any QB will rarely do no matter the circumstance. And they certainly won't grade out as a Top 3 QB per PFF, which accounts for a lot more than box statistics.
 
Speedy said:
Right, because after one possession of a football game, teams are already in prevent the rest of the way. MFer ya'll need to get off that BS about Watson's game. Dude had NOTHING and still put up numbers. But when he gets shipped, you'll see. Have fun arguing that **** for eternity.
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The 49ers with Deshaun Watson are a 15-1 team. Watson does literally everything better than Jimmy G. And this is exactly why so many teams are willing to expend so much draft capital to acquire him. The opinions of the many football experts on this board notwithstanding, there is a reason why teams aren't offering multiple first round picks and players for Jimmy G, Ryan Tannehill, Kirk Cousins, etc.

But you will always have a subset of hypercritical/disgruntled fans in any fanbase. There was a large contingent of Clemson fans that wanted Kelly Bryant to start over Trevor Lawrence for the entire season. There were even fans who wanted Cole Stoudt to continue starting over Deshaun Watson.
 
I'm not doggin' Deshaun. I'm a Watson fan and want to see him retire in Houston with rings.

But lets not act like he's infallible. His numbers and game - like every other NFL player - are open to analysis and interpretation. Its kinda' why this place exists.

At the end of the day, even an elite top 5 QB can only muster 4 wins if the rest of the team sucks. And he had to have some talent around him catching those 4800+ passing yards.

So a team in salary cap hell, paying top money to a QB, and no draft capital, the question is how do you put talent on both sides of the ball to turn those 12 losses into 12 wins with those franchise limitations?
 
ClemsonTexan said:
Only they don't put up numbers. 4,800+ yards passing, 33 TDs to 7 INTs, a 70% completion rate and the 2nd highest passer rating among starting QBs is something any QB will rarely do no matter the circumstance. And they certainly won't grade out as a Top 3 QB per PFF, which accounts for a lot more than box statistics.
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Yes, they do. Jameis Winston in 2019 put up 5100+ passing yards and 33 TDs. Dak Prescott had 4900+ with 30 TDs.

I'm not comparing QBs (it's not even close). Just sayin' IF personal stats were all that mattered. . .

Point still stands: Mediocre QBs can put up numbers in today's NFL.
 
Double Barrel said:
I'm not doggin' Deshaun. I'm a Watson fan and want to see him retire in Houston with rings.

But lets not act like he's infallible. His numbers and game - like every other NFL player - are open to analysis and interpretation. Its kinda' why this place exists.

At the end of the day, even an elite top 5 QB can only muster 4 wins if the rest of the team sucks. And he had to have some talent around him catching those 4800+ passing yards.

So a team in salary cap hell, paying top money to a QB, and no draft capital, the question is how do you put talent on both sides of the ball to turn those 12 losses into 12 wins with those franchise limitations?
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Nobody said he's infallible. I feel like this is a default strawman when people on here can't properly address a very specific point that is being made.

The question here is whether Watson's stats are "fool's gold," so to speak, because he's racking up big numbers against soft coverage when the game is already out of hand. That's a theory. It's possible. But then this theory has to be reconciled with the fact that Watson is also at the top of the league in challenging throws according to PFF.

Now the "Watson is only racking up big numbers because the defenses are easier" theory could be true. The issue I have is that people espousing this theory never bother to grapple with the evidence that goes against this theory. Once people have a theory, they generally don't like to accept evidence that may subvert it. This is why it can be so difficult to change someone's belief that Bush destroyed the towers on 9/11, that the moon landing was faked, etc., etc.
 
Double Barrel said:
Yes, they do. Jameis Winston in 2019 put up 5100+ passing yards and 33 TDs. Dak Prescott had 4900+ with 30 TDs.

I'm not comparing QBs (it's not even close). Just sayin' IF personal stats were all that mattered. . .

Point still stands: Mediocre QBs can put up numbers in today's NFL.
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And what was Winston's passer rating? I feel like people always exclude that when bringing up that example.

It's important because Watson just didn't "put up numbers." He put up Winston-like numbers without the turnovers and inefficiency. But as I said above, once someone has locked onto a theory, all countervailing evidence flies out the window.

I also wouldn't consider Dak "mediocre." But that's just one man's opinion.
 
Double Barrel said:
Yes, they do. Jameis Winston in 2019 put up 5100+ passing yards and 33 TDs. Dak Prescott had 4900+ with 30 TDs.

I'm not comparing QBs (it's not even close). Just sayin' IF personal stats were all that mattered. . .

Point still stands: Mediocre QBs can put up numbers in today's NFL.
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Winston also had 30 INT. Prescott has a pretty good run game and was sacked just 23 times when he put up those numbers. Again, Watson had nothing!!

And I'm not saying he's infallible. It's just been months and months of a few here dumping on this dude, nitpicking him to death, and he's been doing nothing but ballin' his ass off. But hey, let's get back to the Fitzy, Hoyer, Keenum, Savage days. At least the bitching would be warranted then.

edit- not saying you, DB are bitching, just the you know whos.
 
Double Barrel said:
Yes, they do. Jameis Winston in 2019 put up 5100+ passing yards and 33 TDs. Dak Prescott had 4900+ with 30 TDs.

I'm not comparing QBs (it's not even close). Just sayin' IF personal stats were all that mattered. . .

Point still stands: Mediocre QBs can put up numbers in today's NFL.
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You kind of glossed over the 70% completion percentage.

When you add that, from what I've read only DW and Drew Brees have ever done 4,400yds, 30 TD and 70% completion percentage in league history.
 
thunderkyss said:
No offense to DB, but just because he says it, doesn't make it true. We were seldom so far out of games that defenses went to prevent defense. Especially in the 4th qtr.
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It's not just "prevent defenses." Teams generally play more or less aggressive coverages based upon the score , even if it's close.

They are much less aggressive when leading than trailing and even less aggressive when they lead by two or more scores. The payoff just isn't worth the risks of aggression when the clock is on your side.

Now go count the times the Texans trailed by two or more scores. I think you'll be shocked.
 
michaelm said:
You kind of glossed over the 70% completion percentage.

When you add that, from what I've read only DW and Drew Brees have ever done 4,400yds, 30 TD and 70% completion percentage in league history.
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I'm not trying to gloss over anything. Some folks are arguing moving goalpost details while I'm attempting to discuss a bigger picture.

What does it tell you when a QB puts up comparable numbers to a HoF QB but only wins 4 games? Does the NFL hand out participation trophies for those numbers?

Yeah, Watson is ELITE and AMAZING and his STATS ARE MIND BOGGLING. Most of us agree on this.

But, this team still only won 4 games with all that awesomeness.

If anything is glossed over, it's the simple fact that this was a 25th ranked red zone offense in spite of those Superman numbers. Interesting to note that Winston with his 30 INTs in 2019 had an offense ranked 3rd in red zone scoring. Bill Belichick said it: "Stats are for losers. Scoreboard is for winners".

I'm just trying to reconcile the desire to keep an elite QB with the fact that he can't win by himself. This franchise simply cannot put a good team around him at this point.

ClemsonTexan said:
Nobody said he's infallible. I feel like this is a default strawman when people on here can't properly address a very specific point that is being made.
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lol

Follow along now:

I said "Even mediocre QBs put up numbers"

You sliced and diced only that sentence (from a much broader point that you appear oblivious to) and replied: "Only they don't put up numbers"

So I posted numbers from mediocre QBs.

Then you :uprights:

There seems to be an apparent inability to have a rational discussion beyond defending Deshaun's individual statistics. But I get it. Your name says it all. :ok:

Will you become ClemsonJet if he's traded to NY?
 
Double Barrel said:
This franchise simply cannot put a good team around him at this point.
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That’s not true. This franchise did not put a good team around him, & it won’t be easy, but they definitely can put a better team around him in 2021, 2022, etc, etc...


fingers crossed
 
ClemsonTexan said:
there is a reason why teams aren't offering multiple first round picks and players for Jimmy G, Ryan Tannehill, Kirk Cousins, etc.
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Yes. Because they’re not available.


ClemsonTexan said:
And this is exactly why so many teams are willing to expend so much draft capital to acquire him. The opinions of the many football experts on this board notwithstanding
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Reporters, commentators, “analysts” you mean? Watson has also not been made available. No real NFL team has offered the Texans a smidgen of draft capital to acquire Watson.
 
Speedy said:
Right, because after one possession of a football game, teams are already in prevent the rest of the way. MFer ya'll need to get off that BS about Watson's game. Dude had NOTHING and still put up numbers. But when he gets shipped, you'll see. Have fun arguing that **** for eternity.
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There's a difference between prevent and less aggressive coverages and pressure packages.

Teams get ahead and the risk / reward for playing aggressive coverages just isn't there. The clock is on their side up 2+ scores and they play to that almost without fail.
There isn't a team in the league that plays the same way in a 0-0 / 3-0 game Vs one that's even 0-10.
That goes double against an opponent like the Texans who they know can't stop them from putting up more points on their next possession.
 
Speedy said:
Winston also had 30 INT. Prescott has a pretty good run game and was sacked just 23 times when he put up those numbers. Again, Watson had nothing!!

And I'm not saying he's infallible. It's just been months and months of a few here dumping on this dude, nitpicking him to death, and he's been doing nothing but ballin' his ass off. But hey, let's get back to the Fitzy, Hoyer, Keenum, Savage days. At least the bitching would be warranted then.

edit- not saying you, DB are bitching, just the you know whos.
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And you respond to me as if I'm one of those you know who's .... but I'm not one who wants him traded at all and would play hardball with him to keep him here if he demanded a trade.
I don't want any part of the QB carousel.

You guys see any criticism of Watson and take it as he sucks or steelbtexan's position that you can't win a superbowl with the guy. Some will argue against any and all criticism .... I could say his fart stunk and someone would argue it didn't.

I'm breaking down his (nitpicking) his performance , what he could do better and how his decisions affect the whole.
 
michaelm said:
I'm not high on Kelly and I'm not advocating for him, but I do see some value in continuity if he's retained.
A lot of that depends on who the HC is and what scheme is used.
For instance, if Bieniemy is HC, most of the continuity advantage is lost due to changing offensive system more than likely.
I'd be more on board with Kelly if the HC is a defensive guy and Kelly keeps the current system, but with some tweaks. And adding a good OL coach
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Now that "de-programming' has become such a hot topic......maybe Kelly can be de-programmed as well with the right HC.
 
Watson had passing success with him but our run game was atrocious. He does not deserve his position going forward but the team is pandering to Watson. Another egregious act of stupid by the home town team.
 
amazing80 said:
Well clearly he has earned his shot as OC, or teams wouldn't be asking. I am ok with keeping him as OC or QB coach.
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Unless Bieniemy or Frazier, or whoever the leader in the clubhouse is, has indicated they would want to keep Kelly on in some capacity, that would be the only reason for them to not let him interview. Otherwise, it isn’t fair to the next HC not to be able to pick his own staff.

This just sounds like the Texans are bending over backwards for the QB and doing whatever it is he wants, which they do need to smooth things over with him, but giving him control in front office and coaching decisions pretty much continues the dysfunction this franchise is IMO.
 
amazing80 said:
Well clearly he has earned his shot as OC, or teams wouldn't be asking.
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Is it team(s)? The only name I've seen associated with Kelly is the Titans, who lost their OC. Which makes sense, as Vrabel and Kelly were on staff for 4 years in Houston, and Kelly's offense lit up the Titans this season like a pinball machine.
 
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