The all encompassing DW4 good plays thread

[steelbtexan]

For one, I think the comparisons to Mahomes need to stop. No point in dwelling on hypotheticals.

That aside, how do you think DW4's skillset could be better used? I actually wonder if BOB's system will ultimately shape him into a more well-rounded QB. I never wanted him to become a Lamar Jackson-type who becomes overly-reliant on his feet. His athleticism will be there, at least for the next few years, so I'd rather him learn the position from the pocket, and then break out his running ability AFTER he's developed into a good pocket passer (which I think he is though he obviously needs to continue improving).

I don't think he's come close to reaching his ceiling yet. If he becomes an even more polished passer, and develops a better sense of when to stay in the pocket and when to bail, AND coaches start using his legs a bit more on designed run plays, I think the sky is the limit for him. We shall see.

Exactly

Hopefully this happens because if it does DW4 will become the player some on this MB think he already is.

Difference between them and me is I dont think what you described is going to happen. He will still be a good but not great QB even if it doesn't happen.

 

[ClemsonTexan]

Exactly

Hopefully this happens because if it does DW4 will become the player some on this MB think he already is.

Difference between them and me is I dont think what you described is going to happen. He will still be a good but not great QB even if it doesn't happen.

Fortunately, he doesn't have to be great to win a SB. Well, maybe for the Texans he does, but he could win a SB with a better organization, no question.

To keep perspective on this, I think it's important to keep in mind that really only 4-5 teams are consistently happy with their QB play. I'm a recent Texans convert...I was previously a "Washington Football Team" fan. When Robert Griffin III was under center, I felt our chances of converting 3rd and 3 were worse than my chances of winning the Powerball. The ball was either batted down, thrown behind the receiver on a slant or thrown out of bounds. No exceptions. Well, the one exception was a sack since he was completely oblivious to pressure. Now that I watch the Texans, I see conversions on 3rd and 6 or 3rd and 7 on a semi-regular basis, and I cannot believe it! Before this, I literally thought anything more than 3rd and 2 was a signal for the punt team to hit the field.

Watson is still young and is on a good trajectory. I don't know if he'll be great. I *do* know that the Texans could have a Mayfield, Trubisky, Haskins, etc., so all things considered, Texans' fans should be counting their blessings. These truly elite QBs some people pine for do not grow on trees. Hell, Deshaun Watsons do not grow on trees. You have a QB who currently ranks 3rd in passer rating, 4th in passing yards, and 5th in TD passes, yet there's a lot of handwringing over the fact that he's not Rodgers in his 4th season. I don't really get it.

 

[Texansballer74]

For one, I think the comparisons to Mahomes need to stop. No point in dwelling on hypotheticals.

That aside, how do you think DW4's skillset could be better used? I actually wonder if BOB's system will ultimately shape him into a more well-rounded QB. I never wanted him to become a Lamar Jackson-type who becomes overly-reliant on his feet. His athleticism will be there, at least for the next few years, so I'd rather him learn the position from the pocket, and then break out his running ability AFTER he's developed into a good pocket passer (which I think he is though he obviously needs to continue improving).

I don't think he's come close to reaching his ceiling yet. If he becomes an even more polished passer, and develops a better sense of when to stay in the pocket and when to bail, AND coaches start using his legs a bit more on designed run plays, I think the sky is the limit for him. We shall see.

This comparison will never be put to rest/aside. These two will be talked about for years to come.

It seems as if fans wants perfection when that’s not realistic. No quarterback makes every throw. The young man is lightening up the league like he did in his rookie season. The difference he is showing more poise in the pocket as well as being a polished passer. In the past 9 games have you not seen all of that?

Side note: I’m not arguing with you and welcome to the forum.

 

[thunderkyss]

That aside, how do you think DW4's skillset could be better used? I actually wonder if BOB's system will ultimately shape him into a more well-rounded QB.

I never really wanted O'Brien to adapt to Watson per se. I just wanted him to help Watson adjust to the pro game.

Watch how other coaches incorporate things into the game plan to help young QBs get up to speed. Even (especially) Reid in KC. Watch their games & you'll see they still incorporate those things today. Not nearly as much.

But Watson has had to learn the hard way & we're past that now. He's really a fine QB now. Still needs help time to time because of the weaknesses around him. We see he manages to overcome those weaknesses against bad teams, but in the playoffs, there ain't no bad teams.

 

[steelbtexan]

Fortunately, he doesn't have to be great to win a SB. Well, maybe for the Texans he does, but he could win a SB with a better organization, no question.

To keep perspective on this, I think it's important to keep in mind that really only 4-5 teams are consistently happy with their QB play. I'm a recent Texans convert...I was previously a "Washington Football Team" fan. When Robert Griffin III was under center, I felt our chances of converting 3rd and 3 were worse than my chances of winning the Powerball. The ball was either batted down, thrown behind the receiver on a slant or thrown out of bounds. No exceptions. Well, the one exception was a sack since he was completely oblivious to pressure. Now that I watch the Texans, I see conversions on 3rd and 6 or 3rd and 7 on a semi-regular basis, and I cannot believe it! Before this, I literally thought anything more than 3rd and 2 was a signal for the punt team to hit the field.

Watson is still young and is on a good trajectory. I don't know if he'll be great. I *do* know that the Texans could have a Mayfield, Trubisky, Haskins, etc., so all things considered, Texans' fans should be counting their blessings. These truly elite QBs some people pine for do not grow on trees. Hell, Deshaun Watsons do not grow on trees. You have a QB who currently ranks 3rd in passer rating, 4th in passing yards, and 5th in TD passes, yet there's a lot of handwringing over the fact that he's not Rodgers in his 4th season. I don't really get it.

I really like RGIII coming out of college. Too bad Shanny ruined his career. I was hoping he would play really well today. Unfortunately he predictably got hurt again.

The 40 mil per yr contract is going to kill DW4's SB's chances at winning a SB. Steve young is the QB that took up the most cap space at 13.2 % and won a SB. DW4 will be eating up atleast 20% of the cap. Plus the other young QB's are up and coming plus they're still on their rookie deals. This doesn't even take into acct Mahomes is a bad man.

 

[banned1976]

I never really wanted O'Brien to adapt to Watson per se. I just wanted him to help Watson adjust to the pro game.

Watch how other coaches incorporate things into the game plan to help young QBs get up to speed. Even (especially) Reid in KC. Watch their games & you'll see they still incorporate those things today. Not nearly as much.

But Watson has had to learn the hard way & we're past that now. He's really a fine QB now. Still needs help time to time because of the weaknesses around him. We see he manages to overcome those weaknesses against bad teams, but in the playoffs, there ain't no bad teams.

In the playoffs, if Watson can play like he did in the second half of the Bills playoff game and combine that with the first half of the Chiefs playoff game, Watson is on his way. He’s not going to get a shot at it this season but hopefully we will see it next season.

 

[Earl34]

I never really wanted O'Brien to adapt to Watson per se. I just wanted him to help Watson adjust to the pro game.

Watch how other coaches incorporate things into the game plan to help young QBs get up to speed. Even (especially) Reid in KC. Watch their games & you'll see they still incorporate those things today. Not nearly as much.

But Watson has had to learn the hard way & we're past that now. He's really a fine QB now. Still needs help time to time because of the weaknesses around him. We see he manages to overcome those weaknesses against bad teams, but in the playoffs, there ain't no bad teams.

Good post. There was an article about a QB camp hosted by Jordan Palmer that Watson, Mahomes and several other older college QBs attended. The rooms were assigned by number of starts, so Mahomes and Watson were low men on the totem pole.

When it came to the classroom portion of the camp, Palmer was surprised by Watson's ability to breakdown plays. Mahomes did not perform as well during the classroom portion. Based on level of competition and Palmer's comments, I believe Watson was ahead of Mahomes in reading defenses and probably better equipped for BOB's EP system.

If Mahomes is the closest thing to Favre, I'm not sure O'Brien would have been as patient as Mike Holmgren was with Favre. During Mahomes rookie training camp, they were shocked by the number of INTs he was throwing. That's why Tyreek Hill thought he was 'trash". With BOB's emphasis on practice, would those same INTs get Mahomes in the rookie dog house?

Reid basically integrated many of the concepts and even terminology from the Texas Tech offense into his playbook for Mahomes. I doubt BOB would have done that for him. Personally, I really believe that in the classroom, BOB did a great job helping Watson read coverage and tendencies of NFL defenses. Unfortunately, his on field scheme didn't always make it easy for a young QB, but the BOB experience will definitely make the next HC or OC job easier. It can't get more difficult.

 

[leebigeztx]

No word play, I just pointed out something that you didn't care for. Some of those Eagles player got to Philly after he was gone. Truth is Reid is a great evaluator of talent. He wasn't looked at as a great HC until after Mahomes became his QB. Before Mahomes his teams were known for choking in the playoffs with McNabb/Smith etc... despite as you correctly pointed out all of the talent he had on his teams. My question for you is did Reid find the talent or did the GM's Eagles and Chiefs find the talent? I honestly dont know the answer to that question. What I do know is Reid is great at developing QB's. I'm guessing that you think Reid picks the guys he thinks he can develop? This is something that from the beginning (Jimmy G to Mahomes) BOB never got the chance to do.

Who came after Reid left? Macklin? DJack? Ertz? McCoy? Andy Reid since he's been a head coach has always been regarded as a great play caller. His issues have been time management and questions about situations running the ball. He went to the championship game 4 straight years. Who else has done that? If you want to say Mahomes is the 1st qb to have the talent to get him over the top, I agree, but Andy Reid from an offensive scheme/play designer is the absolute cream of the crop.

 

[steelbtexan]

Who came after Reid left? Macklin? DJack? Ertz? McCoy? Andy Reid since he's been a head coach has always been regarded as a great play caller. His issues have been time management and questions about situations running the ball. He went to the championship game 4 straight years. Who else has done that? If you want to say Mahomes is the 1st qb to have the talent to get him over the top, I agree, but Andy Reid from an offensive scheme/play designer is the absolute cream of the crop.

Agreed, however without a SB he's not a HOF'er.

 

[leebigeztx]

Agreed, however without a SB he's not a HOF'er.

So Bud Grant and Marv Levy are in the HOF without titles, Marty is knocking on the door, but you're saying Reid wouldn't get in without a title? There are only 8 coaches in the history of football that has 200 wins. Andy Reid is one of them

 

[steelbtexan]

So Bud Grant and Marv Levy are in the HOF without titles, Marty is knocking on the door, but you're saying Reid wouldn't get in without a title? There are only 8 coaches in the history of football that has 200 wins. Andy Reid is one of them

How many SB's have those guys been too?

How many has Reid been to before last yr?

 

[thunderkyss]

How many SB's have those guys been too?

How many has Reid been to before last yr?

I agree. He might not have had to win, but without getting to the 2nd Super Bowl I wouldn’t support a vote for him in the HOF.

All the other things may put him on the ballot, but for me, getting a 2nd team to the Super Bowl seals it. Winning was icing.

 

[ClemsonTexan]

Good question ....

I think they would be better with DW4 than they were with Mariota but I don't think they would be as good as they are with Tannehill.
The reason for that is that these guys are two different types of players , Watson is a better version of Mariota .... big plays but not much sustained offense where Tannehill is the polar opposite they sustain drives and control the clock / game with shorter throws but he doesn't make a as many big plays.

To me , the way Tannehill approaches the position is more conducive to winning football in the NFL. Its more about moving the sticks than trying to take big chunks.

I don't see how Watson and Mariota are at all comparable in this regard. Here is how Mariota ranked in passing first downs over the last 5 seasons.

2019 - 37th (7.14 per game)
2018 - 28th (8.64 per game)
2017 - 21st (9.93 per game)
2016 - 23rd (10.46 per game)
2015 - 23rd (11.83 per game)

Same numbers for Watson.

2020 - 8th (13.54 per game)
2019 - 10th (12.73 per game)
2018 - 10th (13.43 per game)
2017 - 32nd (12.14 per game)

Same numbers for Tannehill for the past two seasons.

2020 - 16th (12.45 per game)
2019 - 28th (10.50 per game)

I've always viewed Watson as being pretty good at keeping the offense on schedule. That's never been my concern with him. My concern has more of less been the stupid "unforced errors" that I believe are largely the result of a lack of maturity. The dumb interceptions are one (i.e., the flip pass INT in the Ravens game, the stupid INT in the Pitt game that cost us a perfect season). There are times when he tries too hard to make something out of nothing when he'd be better off throwing the ball away. I've had some concern about his footwork in the pocket lately as it seems he kinda has this awkward jump/shuffle at times when there's pressure in his face. But if the Texans aren't sustaining drives, I can't say Watson is necessarily the chief reason for that as he's been very effective picking up 1st downs with his arm.

In short, I don't think Mariota and Watson are in any way comparable. Mariota simply was not that good of a QB. Both Tannehill and Watson are better.

 

[thunderkyss]

In short, I don't think Mariota and Watson are in any way comparable. Mariota simply was not that good of a QB. Both Tannehill and Watson are better.

I see nothing wrong saying Watson is a better version of Mariotta.

I question your observation about Watson keeping us on schedule. That hasn’t been what I’ve seen. Not saying it’s been his fault but we’re rarely on schedule.

 

[austins23]

Without a SB Reid would've never gotten in the HOF.

I think he would have.

but Reid was on his way to the HOF without Mahomes

Yes.

without Mahomes he wouldn't be a HOF HC.

Disagree.
Reid is 9th in history in wins as a HC, 2nd among active HC's, behind the Hoodie. He has a .627 winning percentage. He has been in 24 playoff games, winning 11. And he went to a SB and won one.

Marv Levy went to 4 SB's, losing all of them. Levy is 143-112, for a .561 winning percentage. Went to 19 playoff games, winning 11. No SB wins, and with that team he took to the SB 4 years in a row he should have at least two. That team was loaded. Levy is in the HOF.

Reid belonged before the SB win, and he belongs now.

 

[ClemsonTexan]

I see nothing wrong saying Watson is a better version of Mariotta.

It seemed to me you were saying that they're similar insofar as they are good at getting the explosive play while not so good at keeping the chains moving. I never thought Mariota was particularly good at either. And objectively, he is far worse at picking up first downs with his arm.

If Tannehill is any better at keeping the chains moving than Watson, it's not because he's any better in the passing game. As posters have already noted earlier, he has a much stronger running game to support him, which means he probably doesn't face 2nd/3rd and long that often.

Edit: I didn't realize how bad the Texans are at running the ball. 31st ranked rushing attack in the league. And Watson has 32% of the team's rushing yards. Yikes!

 

[CWTexansFan]

It seemed to me you were saying that they're similar insofar as they are good at getting the explosive play while not so good at keeping the chains moving. I never thought Mariota was particularly good at either. And objectively, he is far worse at picking up first downs with his arm.

If Tannehill is any better at keeping the chains moving than Watson, it's not because he's any better in the passing game. As posters have already noted earlier, he has a much stronger running game to support him, which means he probably doesn't face 2nd/3rd and long that often.

Edit: I didn't realize how bad the Texans are at running the ball. 31st ranked rushing attack in the league. And Watson has 32% of the team's rushing yards. Yikes!

They try to catch the other team off guard with their super special razzle dazzle razzmatazz. It's a highly complex running play that involves

Spoiler

Johnson

faceplanting in

Spoiler

Martin's

backside gaining insignificant footage everytime.
A gap running at it's finest.

 

[Corrosion]

It seemed to me you were saying that they're similar insofar as they are good at getting the explosive play while not so good at keeping the chains moving. I never thought Mariota was particularly good at either. And objectively, he is far worse at picking up first downs with his arm.

If Tannehill is any better at keeping the chains moving than Watson, it's not because he's any better in the passing game. As posters have already noted earlier, he has a much stronger running game to support him, which means he probably doesn't face 2nd/3rd and long that often.

Edit: I didn't realize how bad the Texans are at running the ball. 31st ranked rushing attack in the league. And Watson has 32% of the team's rushing yards. Yikes!

My point in making that comparison was that they are similar in always seeking the big play.
That philosophy is what gets Watson in trouble "I can get away from anything" (paraphrasing but the intent of those words came straight from his mouth) which has led to sacks and pressures that lead to being off schedule and can be avoided by taking those shorter throws.

Mariota was very similar in that aspect - Watson's better at it both in throwing it and avoiding the pressure. Hence Watson's a better version of Mariota.

It's fairly obvious to even the casual observer that Watson's statistically better.

 

[ClemsonTexan]

My point in making that comparison was that they are similar in always seeking the big play.

Watson has actually had one of the highest checkdown rates in the League.

Elsewhere, the above group consists primarily of below-average quarterbacks, but there are interesting exceptions. Deshaun Watson has the seventh-highest checkdown rate of any quarterback in the league over the past two seasons, perhaps contrary to his overall perception. Over the same time span, he also has the 12th-highest big-time throw rate (PFF’s highest-graded throws) and one of the best PFF grades in the league in key situations — such as the fourth quarter, close games and third downs. Watson is a big-time playmaker for the Houston Texans, but he also has a tendency to throw checkdowns at a higher rate than most quarterbacks.

Captain Checkdown: The quarterbacks who most and least rely on checkdown passes | NFL News, Rankings and Statistics | PFF

While Blake Bortles has utilized the checkdown pass at a high rate, Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen has avoided such plays.

www.pff.com

Not saying your perception does not match reality. But we need to somehow reconcile perception with statistical data. On the one hand, Watson can't keep an offense on schedule, at least not as well as Tannehill does. On the other hand, he's thrown for more first downs than Tannehill, has an identical 1st down % as Tannehill (T-4th among QBs with at least 14 passing attempts), and has a higher net yards gained per passing attempt (trailing only Mahomes this season). On the one hand, Watson is always seeking the big play. On the other hand, he's one of the Checkdown Kings of the NFL.

I don't disagree that Watson should sometimes take a shorter throw instead of looking for the big play (though I'd rather have a QB whose inclination is the latter rather than the former). I do disagree, however, that he's similar to Mariota as far as an unwillingness to settle for the shorter pass unless someone can provide evidence to the contrary.

 

[OptimisticTexan]

Watson has actually had one of the highest checkdown rates in the League.

Captain Checkdown: The quarterbacks who most and least rely on checkdown passes | NFL News, Rankings and Statistics | PFF

While Blake Bortles has utilized the checkdown pass at a high rate, Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen has avoided such plays.

www.pff.com

Not saying your perception does not match reality. But we need to somehow reconcile perception with statistical data. On the one hand, Watson can't keep an offense on schedule, at least not as well as Tannehill does. On the other hand, he's thrown for more first downs than Tannehill, has an identical 1st down % as Tannehill (T-4th among QBs with at least 14 passing attempts), and has a higher net yards gained per passing attempt (trailing only Mahomes this season). On the one hand, Watson is always seeking the big play. On the other hand, he's one of the Checkdown Kings of the NFL.

I don't disagree that Watson should sometimes take a shorter throw instead of looking for the big play (though I'd rather have a QB whose inclination is the latter rather than the former). I do disagree, however, that he's similar to Mariota as far as an unwillingness to settle for the shorter pass unless someone can provide evidence to the contrary.

If the Texans find that a check-down or dump-off passing game is highly appetizing.....reach out to Jon Gruden and the Raiders and I bet he says "YES!!!" the moment you mention the name Carr without even hearing the rest of the proposal. Jon would happily dump Carr on the Texans in exchange for Watson and probably throw in a RD2 to make sure it happens.

Me.....the Texans need to build an OL in the worst way. Get this done and I think Watson absolutely becomes lethal b/c he's accomplished so much more than expected with the crap he's been strapped with in playing at this level week to week.

 

[ClemsonTexan]

If the Texans find that check-down or dump-off passing game highly appetizing.....reach out to Jon Gruden and the Raiders and I bet he says yes the moment you mention the name Carr without even hearing the rest of the proposal. Jon would happily dump Carr on the Texans in exchange for Watson and probably throw in a RD2 to make sure it happens.

You could argue that Watson needs to learn to couple his penchant for the big, explosive play with more pragmatic decision-making that involves settling for shorter passes when necessary. The only issue is that there are currently only 4 players in the entire NFL who have been able to strike that perfect balance (and 2 of those guys won't be around much longer). Most QBs are going to fall somewhere closer on the spectrum to your reckless gamblers (Winston) or your Checkdown Charlies (Brunell w/ the Skins) with none having the talent to win many football games through their own exploits.

If given a choice between the two, I'd rather have the gambler who looks for the big play because I have greater confidence that with time he can temper that instinct than I do in the Checkdown Charlie's ability to grow a sack and take more risks. All things being equal, it also makes for much more exciting football.

 

[ClemsonTexan]

And while I agree that Watson needs to be more consistent--elite QBs are consistent--I think his overall consistency from season to season goes a bit underappreciated. He could have been one of those "here today, gone tomorrow" QBs like Jared Goff, but he's been able to produce at a fairly consistent level despite many if not more of the same challenges (torn ACL, average to below average coaching, personnel issues, coaching change, etc.). Just one of those things is often enough to derail the career of a young QB. So far, he's continued to make progress and show improvement, which is not the case for many highly touted young prospects.

 

[Corrosion]

You could argue that Watson needs to learn to couple his penchant for the big, explosive play with more pragmatic decision-making that involves settling for shorter passes when necessary.

This is exactly the point I've been trying to get across for the last year ....

 

[Earl34]

This is exactly the point I've been trying to get across for the last year ....

Have you listen to Watson recently? I think he gets it. He even agrees with your point.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1334251506929905665

 

[Texansballer74]

Have you listen to Watson recently? I think he gets it. He even agrees with your point.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1334251506929905665

This young man has been balling at an elite level in the past 7 out of 8 games now. At least the media and his peers recognizes what he’s doing. Especially without a running game. I also credits the offensive line for the pass pro, the receivers for getting open quicker and Kelly for allowing Watson to be who he is.

 

[Corrosion]

Have you listen to Watson recently? I think he gets it. He even agrees with your point.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1334251506929905665

Yeah , kinda funny he's basically saying exactly what I have on the subject for the past several months.
Really that's my only complaint other than pre snap reads on potential rushers .... the whole team screws that up.

 

[CWTexansFan]

Have you listen to Watson recently? I think he gets it. He even agrees with your point.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1334251506929905665

Very encouraging, now he may become elite like we all hope. I look forward to his decimation of my little ponies.

This is not sarcasm.

 

[steelbtexan]

If the Texans find that a check-down or dump-off passing game is highly appetizing.....reach out to Jon Gruden and the Raiders and I bet he says "YES!!!" the moment you mention the name Carr without even hearing the rest of the proposal. Jon would happily dump Carr on the Texans in exchange for Watson and probably throw in a RD2 to make sure it happens.

Me.....the Texans need to build an OL in the worst way. Get this done and I think Watson absolutely becomes lethal b/c he's accomplished so much more than expected with the crap he's been strapped with in playing at this level week to week.

The main pieces are there to be molded by a top notch OL coach.

? If an top notch OG fell to the3rd rd would you pick him. I'm talking about a top notch OG like Trey Smith - OG Tennessee.

 

[OptimisticTexan]

The main pieces are there to be molded by a top notch OL coach.

? If an top notch OG fell to the3rd rd would you pick him. I'm talking about a top notch OG like Trey Smith - OG Tennessee.

Absolutely. Would you be favoring the idea of moving Fulton to Center or hoping another OL is available later in the draft? Me, I'm really hoping that the monster from Minnesota (RT- Faalele) is on the board. This mountain of a man could be the answer the team needs at RT, which could free Howard to move inside and Fulton to Center. That's a monster OL, then throw in a guy like Trey Smith and maybe Fulton is out, Scharping moves to Center and Smith goes LG.

LT- Tunsil
LG- Scharping
OC- Fulton
RG- Howard
RT- Faalele

-or-

LT- Tunsil
LG- Smith
OC- Scharping
RG- Howard
RT- Faalele

 

[steelbtexan]

Absolutely. Would you be favoring the idea of moving Fulton to Center or hoping another OL is available later in the draft? Me, I'm really hoping that the monster from Minnesota (RT- Faalele) is on the board. This mountain of a man could be the answer the team needs at RT, which could free Howard to move inside and Fulton to Center. That's a monster OL, then throw in a guy like Trey Smith and maybe Fulton is out, Scharping moves to Center and Smith goes LG.

LT- Tunsil
LG- Scharping
OC- Fulton
RG- Howard
RT- Faalele

-or-

LT- Tunsil
LG- Smith
OC- Scharping
RG- Howard
RT- Faalele

That's a potentially great OL.

You probably are only going to be able to get one of those guys. I haven't seen any of Faalele so I dont have an opinion of him. But from what I've read is he could be there in the 3rd and has Orlando Brown upside. You could do alot worse than that in the 3rd rd. Beggars cant be choosers in the 3rd rd. BPA

 

[ClemsonTexan]

This is exactly the point I've been trying to get across for the last year ....

But that's not much of a "point." It's like saying we should strive to have a car that couples excellent track performance with Honda Civic fuel economy. Of course, everyone is striving for that. But rarely are you going to find both in one car. Similarly, you are rarely going to find explosive play ability and the patient and wise game manager in one QB. It's even more rare to find that in a QB in his 4th season. Only a small handful of QBs ever make it to that level.

I think what's bewildering to some fans is the constant comparison to more seasoned QBs (Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Tannehill) or to once-in-a-century prodigies (Mahomes) and the need to apportion blame to a QB who has not even played a full 4 seasons. This is even more bewildering considering that he is VASTLY out performing every single one of his peers not named Patrick Mahomes II. To be clear, it's not that Watson doesn't deserve *any* blame. It's more a question of why that discussion is even occurring when the organization CLEARLY has bigger problems to deal with. It's like trying to figure out how much blame the junior guy on the account deserves when you're in a company that has been in the red for the last 5 years. We expect growing pains and inexperienced mistakes from the junior guy (Watson). We don't expect them from a CEO who has been at the helm for years (O'Brien).

Now you could still say "But Watson still needs to do better." And I would agree since everyone needs to do better at something. But (a) what are our expectations of a 4th year QB drafted 12th overall and (b) is Watson meeting, exceeding or falling short of those expectations. Those are the only questions that matter IMO.

 

[Corrosion]

But that's not much of a "point." It's like saying we should strive to have a car that couples excellent track performance with Honda Civic fuel economy. Of course, everyone is striving for that. But rarely are you going to find both in one car. Similarly, you are rarely going to find explosive play ability and the patient and wise game manager in one QB. It's even more rare to find that in a QB in his 4th season. Only a small handful of QBs ever make it to that level.

I think what's bewildering to some fans is the constant comparison to more seasoned QBs (Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Tannehill) or to once-in-a-century prodigies (Mahomes) and the need to apportion blame to a QB who has not even played a full 4 seasons. This is even more bewildering considering that he is VASTLY out performing every single one of his peers not named Patrick Mahomes II. To be clear, it's not that Watson doesn't deserve *any* blame. It's more a question of why that discussion is even occurring when the organization CLEARLY has bigger problems to deal with. It's like trying to figure out how much blame the junior guy on the account deserves when you're in a company that has been in the red for the last 5 years. We expect growing pains and inexperienced mistakes from the junior guy (Watson). We don't expect them from a CEO who has been at the helm for years (O'Brien).

Now you could still say "But Watson still needs to do better." And I would agree since everyone needs to do better at something. But (a) what are our expectations of a 4th year QB drafted 12th overall and (b) is Watson meeting, exceeding or falling short of those expectations. Those are the only questions that matter IMO.

I think when my "complaints" coincide dead on with what he's saying himself .... its hard to argue with my point.

This whole discussion started with disagreement over where he ranks according to his peers.
Watson’s a top 5 qb. Do you agree? | Houston Texans Message Board & Forum - TexansTalk.com
A handful want to crown him king of the world , Jesus In Cleats , Michael Jordan of Football! , others temper that and want to see results.


Why are we talking about this ? ... What the heck else do we have to discuss about this team other than how the rest of it sucks from the water boy to the ownership.

Honestly he's exceeded my pre draft expectations , I wouldn't have drafted him and I can't name 3 QB's I'd rather have for the next five years - Mahomes , Wilson ....There's a couple others I'd take for a shorter window but they won't be around a heck of a lot longer.

A lot of the arguing goes back to last years playoff defeat 51-7 where Watson did nothing to alter the outcome. Yeah , you can blame the defense but if that offense just gets a first down in multiple opportunities , the tide changes. That offense did nothing and he's the point man.
It irked me that so many excuses were made .... placing blame on anyone and everyone else and deflecting it all off of the trigger man.

Then the contract .... not to mention a reduced cap due to covid economics.

If he's worth that much he should raise the level of play of those around him and that really hasn't been the case ,he doesn't routinely throw guys open and he's made the OL look worse than it really is by hanging onto the ball trying to manufacture those big plays and again , 51-7 make a damn play for 20% of the cap .... now with the built in excuse that they don't have cap space to put anyone around him.

No , he isn't in the best situation .... ownership is incompetent , the coaching staff has been incompetent , he has few weapons .....

I'm probably splitting hairs but I'm my own worst critic and a perfectionist by nature.

Apparently Watson agree's with my criticism by his own admission .... I like the fact that he knows what he needs to work on - now do it.

 

[Texansballer74]

All because you think Watson comments aligns with yours doesn’t mean he’s not a top 5 quarterback currently.

 

[ClemsonTexan]

I think when my "complaints" coincide dead on with what he's saying himself .... its hard to argue with my point.

And respectfully my point is that your "point" isn't much of one at all. It would be like my boss telling me during my year-end evaluation that I need to do better quality work, faster. That's obvious. It's equally obvious that all QBs not named Brady or Brees need to do a better job at balancing the desire for big, explosive plays with a willingness to cut their losses when appropriate.

This whole discussion started with disagreement over where he ranks according to his peers.
Watson’s a top 5 qb. Do you agree? | Houston Texans Message Board & Forum - TexansTalk.com
A handful want to crown him king of the world , Jesus In Cleats , Michael Jordan of Football! , others temper that and want to see results.

And I understand the consequent pushback and counternarrative. But as a lurker on this board for the past few years, I would say that the Mahomes/Brady comparisons ("Now that is what a real QB looks like") far outweigh the Jesus in Cleats type of statements.

Honestly he's exceeded my pre draft expectations , I wouldn't have drafted him and I can't name 3 QB's I'd rather have for the next five years - Mahomes , Wilson ....There's a couple others I'd take for a shorter window but they won't be around a heck of a lot longer.

I wouldn't even take Wilson. He's getting sacked at an even higher rate than Watson this year.

If he's worth that much he should raise the level of play of those around him and that really hasn't been the case ,he doesn't routinely throw guys open and he's made the OL look worse than it really is by hanging onto the ball trying to manufacture those big plays and again , 51-7 make a damn play for 20% of the cap .... now with the built in excuse that they don't have cap space to put anyone around him.

This is quite a bit to unpack.

I think Watson is an excellent QB between the 20s. I think his struggles are mostly in the red zone. Obviously, everything is tighter down there and the decision-making process gets sped up. I think this is the biggest improvement he needs to make in order to make that jump to the next level. Otherwise, the Texans will be an offense that puts up pretty good stats year after year with not a whole lot of points to show for it.

 

[steelbtexan]

But that's not much of a "point." It's like saying we should strive to have a car that couples excellent track performance with Honda Civic fuel economy. Of course, everyone is striving for that. But rarely are you going to find both in one car. Similarly, you are rarely going to find explosive play ability and the patient and wise game manager in one QB. It's even more rare to find that in a QB in his 4th season. Only a small handful of QBs ever make it to that level.

I think what's bewildering to some fans is the constant comparison to more seasoned QBs (Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Tannehill) or to once-in-a-century prodigies (Mahomes) and the need to apportion blame to a QB who has not even played a full 4 seasons. This is even more bewildering considering that he is VASTLY out performing every single one of his peers not named Patrick Mahomes II. To be clear, it's not that Watson doesn't deserve *any* blame. It's more a question of why that discussion is even occurring when the organization CLEARLY has bigger problems to deal with. It's like trying to figure out how much blame the junior guy on the account deserves when you're in a company that has been in the red for the last 5 years. We expect growing pains and inexperienced mistakes from the junior guy (Watson). We don't expect them from a CEO who has been at the helm for years (O'Brien).

Now you could still say "But Watson still needs to do better." And I would agree since everyone needs to do better at something. But (a) what are our expectations of a 4th year QB drafted 12th overall and (b) is Watson meeting, exceeding or falling short of those expectations. Those are the only questions that matter IMO.

How many more yrs do we have to go through before the he's a young QB excuse goes away? Yr 5/yr 10?

 

[steelbtexan]

All because you think Watson comments aligns with yours doesn’t mean he’s not a top 5 quarterback currently.

Top 5 against the Jags/Lions, yes

Top 5 against the Chiefs/Ravens etc...

Not so much, but he's young? How many more yrs are we going to be saying this?

 

[ClemsonTexan]

How many more yrs do we have to go through before the he's a young QB excuse goes away? Yr 5/yr 10?

I'd say Season 5. If a QB doesn't make a leap around Year 5/6, it will likely never happen. Unfortunately, however, most franchises give up on prospects entirely too early IMO.

I can definitely tell you that Year 2 is NOT the year to go in on a young QB, which is what some have been doing on this board. The criticisms didn't begin in 2020. The criticism has been ongoing since his sophomore season.

You could possibly include Tannehill in that category (QBs given up on too early). Speaking of Tannehill, does it make much sense to compare Watson to him considering one guy is 25 years old and the other is 32?

 

[steelbtexan]

I'd say Season 5. If a QB doesn't make a leap around Year 5/6, it will likely never happen. Unfortunately, however, most franchises give up on prospects entirely too early IMO.

I can definitely tell you that Year 2 is NOT the year to go in on a young QB, which is what some have been doing on this board. The criticisms didn't begin in 2020. The criticism has been ongoing since his sophomore season.

You could possibly include Tannehill in that category (QBs given up on too early). Speaking of Tannehill, does it make much sense to compare Watson to him considering one guy is 25 years old and the other is 32?

Thanks for putting a number on it.

Of course next yrs built in excuse is going to be he was learning a new offense. Then the yr after that the $$$$ on his extension kicks in, so then the excuse will be that they weren't able to add talent around him because they're in cap he**. The yr after that there will be more excuses etc...

Truth is the Texans are so screwed for the next 4-5 yrs and I would say this to the McNair's. You get what you deserve, if they even care at all about putting a winning product on the field.

 

[ClemsonTexan]

Top 5 against the Jags/Lions, yes

Top 5 against the Chiefs/Ravens etc...

Not so much

Believe it or not, most QBs don't play well against the Jags, Lions, or 2020 Patriots of the world either. That's generally why most QBs have pedestrian stat lines such as 16 TDs, 11 INTs with a 59% completion rate. It kinda goes without saying that a QB will have worse stats against superior defenses, particularly if the opposing defensive players are on a whole superior to the skilled offensive players.

It's tough to evaluate Watson in some ways because we sort of know his floor but not his ceiling. It was predicted that his production would drop off a cliff without his "safety blanket" in Hopkins, but that hasn't been the case at all. So he's been pretty good if not excellent without a true WR1 and no semblance of a running game whatsoever. This is the opposite of Carson Wentz, who may have been considered a Top 5 QB a few years ago, but has proved himself to be entirely ineffective without a strong supporting cast. It wasn't clear how much his team was elevating him but it's fairly clear now.

 

[ClemsonTexan]

Thanks for putting a number on it.

Of course next yrs built in excuse is going to be he was learning a new offense. Then the yr after that the $$$$ on his extension kicks in, so then the excuse will be that they weren't able to add talent around him because they're in cap he**. The yr after that there will be more excuses etc...

Truth is the Texans are so screwed for the next 4-5 yrs and I would say this to the McNair's. You get what you deserve, if they even care at all about putting a winning product on the field.

Maybe. But it's not like his performance needs to be excused this season. He's played well. Sure, you could demand even better from him (42 TDs, 7 INTs, 69% completion rate, 11 sacks, Brady-like decision making in the RZ), but I have a sense that people making those demands are probably never happy with a lot of things in life.

 

[Corrosion]

And respectfully my point is that your "point" isn't much of one at all. It would be like my boss telling me during my year-end evaluation that I need to do better quality work, faster. That's obvious. It's equally obvious that all QBs not named Brady or Brees need to do a better job at balancing the desire for big, explosive plays with a willingness to cut their losses when appropriate.

I think Watson is an excellent QB between the 20s. I think his struggles are mostly in the red zone. Obviously, everything is tighter down there and the decision-making process gets sped up. I think this is the biggest improvement he needs to make in order to make that jump to the next level. Otherwise, the Texans will be an offense that puts up pretty good stats year after year with not a whole lot of points to show for it.

Except this is the one thing that keeps him from being one of those top tier QB's in terms of points produced and W's as a result.
He's obviously tremendously gifted physically and can do everything well. But his best attribute is his escapability when under pressure and he will rely upon that to a fault - to the point where its a detriment leading to negative plays.

Months ago I pointed out that they didn't sustain drives and Watson is a big part of that in that he's forcing looking for that big play instead of just moving the chains with the easy pickings.
He made the statement himself that it was his philosophy of playing QB to go after those big plays , that it makes the OL's job more difficult and he expects to take unnecessary hits as a result.
This is what killed them in the KC game (and many others)- sustain One drive with a 24 point lead and .... 51-7 never happens , rather they couldn't manage that and kept putting their defense back on the field to get torched.


If he picks his spots better - when to go after that big play and when to take the gimmie that eliminates many of the negative or net zero plays and the offense can sustain drives rather than needing multiple 20+ yard plays to produce points .... That changes the whole dynamic of the game when you can control the ball / clock and sustain drives , then he's probably not just top 5 but top 1 and we can all forget about our Mahomes envy.


Several people have asked what changed since OB has left .... Him coming to that conclusion is probably the biggest change - aside from the level of competition as they have beaten some poor teams in that stretch , now we get to see him against a quality defense on Sunday.

 

[ClemsonTexan]

Except this is the one thing that keeps him from being one of those top tier QB's in terms of points produced and W's as a result.
He's obviously tremendously gifted physically and can do everything well. But his best attribute is his escapability when under pressure and he will rely upon that to a fault - to the point where its a detriment leading to negative plays.

If he picks his spots better - when to go after that big play and when to take the gimmie that eliminates many of the negative or net zero plays and the offense can sustain drives rather than needing multiple 20+ yard plays to produce points .... That changes the whole dynamic of the game when you can control the ball / clock and sustain drives , then he's probably not just top 5 but top 1 and we can all forget about our Mahomes envy.

Sure. We just need to see how he matures. Remember when Lebron James was known as a player who couldn't make the right call about when to defer to teammates and when to be "Jordan" and take over games? You don't hear that criticism much anymore since he has matured and gotten a better feel for the game. Likewise, Watson needs time to grow up and develop a better feel for the game and his position. I'll be concerned if he's still making the same mistakes in a couple of years, but for now, we've got give the man a chance to learn.

That said, there are plenty of reasons to be enthusiastic about Watson right now even with all of his flaws. The man makes remarkable plays. He is by no means an average to above average talent. Kirk Cousins is an average to above average talent. Cousins has not made a remarkable play in his entire career.

 

[ClemsonTexan]

This is what an average to above average talent looks like.

 

[thunderkyss]

All because you think Watson comments aligns with yours doesn’t mean he’s not a top 5 quarterback currently.

Do you get a cupie doll if we all agree he's top 5?

 

[Speedy]

I think Watson is an excellent QB between the 20s. I think his struggles are mostly in the red zone. Obviously, everything is tighter down there and the decision-making process gets sped up. I think this is the biggest improvement he needs to make in order to make that jump to the next level. Otherwise, the Texans will be an offense that puts up pretty good stats year after year with not a whole lot of points to show for it.

Inside the 20 is where the lack of a running game is having the biggest impact. Texans RBs inside the 20 are averaging 2.3 YPC and 0.4 YPC inside the 10. These numbers don’t include Watson’s rushing totals, which are significantly better than those. 5.5 and 2.2 YPC respectively. By comparison, the Chiefs non QBs are averaging 3.4 YPC inside the 20, on double the amount of attempts, and 1.5 inside the 10. The Chiefs have 11 rushing red zone TD whereas the Texans have 6.

And oh, BTW, Watson still has 13 TD and 0 INT in the red zone. If you're judging this man without taking in these other team factors, you aren't being true in your evaluations. Watson isn't perfect. For that matter, neither is the great generational talent that is Mahomes, who has a worse bad throw percentage (17.4%) than Watson (16%).

This nit picking of this man is just beyond comprehension. People talk about the W's, well, he's the winningest QB this franchise has ever had. And that's with all the things that are wrong with this franchise. A defense that can't tackle, cover or rush the QB. A poor to middling run game, top talent being shipped off, bad contracts being doled out, along with the poor to middling coaching. And that's just all in the time Watson has been here.

 

[thunderkyss]

But his best attribute is his escapability when under pressure and he will rely upon that to a fault - to the point where its a detriment leading to negative plays.

Off the top of your head, has there been an increase or decrease in negative plays since 51-7, or are they about the same?

 

[ClemsonTexan]

Inside the 20 is where the lack of a running game is having the biggest impact. Texans RBs inside the 20 are averaging 2.3 YPC and 0.4 YPC inside the 10. These numbers don’t include Watson’s rushing totals, which are significantly better than those. 5.5 and 2.2 YPC respectively. By comparison, the Chiefs non QBs are averaging 3.4 YPC inside the 20, on double the amount of attempts, and 1.5 inside the 10. The Chiefs have 11 rushing red zone TD whereas the Texans have 6.

And oh, BTW, Watson still has 13 TD and 0 INT in the red zone. If you're judging this man without taking in these other team factors, you aren't being true in your evaluations. Watson isn't perfect. For that matter, neither is the great generational talent that is Mahomes, who has a worse bad throw percentage (17.4%) than Watson (16%).

This nit picking of this man is just beyond comprehension. People talk about the W's, well, he's the winningest QB this franchise has ever had. And that's with all the things that are wrong with this franchise. A defense that can't tackle, cover or rush the QB. A poor to middling run game, top talent being shipped off, bad contracts being doled out, along with the poor to middling coaching. And that's just all in the time Watson has been here.

I was talking about Watson's historical performance, not just his performance this season.

Trust me, you won't find a bigger Watson fan than me. I've been following him since his days at Gainesville HS. I still remember his first TD pass like it was yesterday.

 

[thunderkyss]

This nit picking of this man is just beyond comprehension.

I'd hate to start the nitpicking his game when they finally put an average team around him.

Good thing for us, Watson isn't waiting either. He's getting better & that wouldn't have happened unless he was nitpicking himself.

 

[Speedy]

I was talking about Watson's historical performance, not just his performance this season.

Trust me, you won't find a bigger Watson fan than me. I've been following him since his days at Gainesville HS. I still remember his first TD pass like it was yesterday.

Was just piggybacking off of you. Not meant to be directed at you.

 

[Speedy]

I'd hate to start the nitpicking his game when they finally put an average team around him.

Good thing for us, Watson isn't waiting either. He's getting better & that wouldn't have happened unless he was nitpicking himself.

And is that not a good sign? A player who knows his faults and works to improve? And is actually showing those improvements on the field? If they ever do get a team around him, ala KC, and coaching that actually knows how to take advantage, ala KC, the sky's the limit here.