Texans 2015 Salary Cap Outlook -- OverTheCap.com

[badboy]

This would be the smart thing to do. And that is why I'm not drafting a wr in the first round. We'll that and the fact that it's a really deep position in the draft and our front seven defensively needs depth and talent all over.

I would trade down if one of the top 3 WRs fell to us.

I understand your position but White, Cooper and Parker could be franchise pro bowlers; unless offered the sky & moon, I'd take either. To me a DE next to a NT and Watt like Malcom Brown is hard to ignore plus he can also play NT. Anthony at 51 is priority need with slot WR and a legit ball hawk in WR Tony Lippett screams "awesome" to me.

 

[CloakNNNdagger]

Fiedo played 567 snaps and had 5 penalties...

JJ had 8
Brown had 6

Bouye had 9!!!

He didn't play great, but base your disappointment on something other than penalties

I find that hard to believe. It seemed like he was penalized every time he got in the game. He was horrible. Maybe they aren't counting penalties that were declined.

There's a reason it's hard to believe.

C.J. Fiedorowicz 2014 Penalties
(in only 471 snaps) according to ProFootballReference:

Fiedo indeed had 5 accepted penalties.

However, he accumulated a total of 35 penalties........30 being declined or offfsetting penalties.......15 false starts and 20 offensive holding (more details in the link)

 

[infantrycak]

There's a reason it's hard to believe.

C.J. Fiedorowicz 2014 Penalties
(in only 471 snaps) according to ProFootballReference:

Fiedo indeed had 5 accepted penalties.

However, he accumulated a total of 35 penalties........30 being declined or offfsetting penalties.......15 false starts and 20 offensive holding (more details in the link)

That's yards coat on the accepted penalties not declined penalties.

 

[CloakNNNdagger]

That's yards coat on the accepted penalties not declined penalties.

MY bad.

 

[mussop]

There's a reason it's hard to believe.

C.J. Fiedorowicz 2014 Penalties
(in only 471 snaps) according to ProFootballReference:

Fiedo indeed had 5 accepted penalties.

However, he accumulated a total of 35 penalties........30 being declined or offfsetting penalties.......15 false starts and 20 offensive holding (more details in the link)

Wow! I thought it was more but holy cow! That's ridiculous.

 

[mussop]

That's yards coat on the accepted penalties not declined penalties.

You are anal about little facts that are irrelevant.

 

[Vance87]

You are anal about little facts that are irrelevant.

You know he's a lawyer, right?

 

[EllisUnit]

You know he's a lawyer, right?

HAHA exactly, that's why i am never shocked about his arguments. He can be dead wrong and you were right but once he is done he has you believing he was right the whole time and you were wrong. He's good, damn good.

 

[JB]

There's a reason it's hard to believe.

C.J. Fiedorowicz 2014 Penalties
(in only 471 snaps) according to ProFootballReference:

Fiedo indeed had 5 accepted penalties.

However, he accumulated a total of 35 penalties........30 being declined or offfsetting penalties.......15 false starts and 20 offensive holding (more details in the link)

471 offensive snaps... rest were special teams. link

 

[mussop]

471 offensive snaps... rest were special teams. link

Which makes it even worse. What were you saying to corrosion again?

 

[JB]

Which makes it even worse. What were you saying to corrosion again?

I was providing facts. 5 penalties for 35 yds. Penalties were not the reason for his shortcomings

 

[Playoffs]

There's a reason it's hard to believe.

C.J. Fiedorowicz 2014 Penalties
(in only 471 snaps) according to ProFootballReference:

Fiedo indeed had 5 accepted penalties.

However, he accumulated a total of 35 penalties........30 being declined or offfsetting penalties.......15 false starts and 20 offensive holding (more details in the link)

CJ had 6 penalties, 1 declined or offsetting, for 35 yards.

 

[mussop]

I was providing facts. 5 penalties for 35 yds. Penalties were not the reason for his shortcomings

Now you sound like infantrycak. you studying law?

 

[JB]

[/IMG]

Now you sound like infantrycak. you studying law?

 

[Corrosion]

CJ had 6 penalties, 1 declined or offsetting, for 35 yards.

Maybe it just seemed like more ...

Either way , he had more penalties than receptions ..... of which he had 4 for 28 yards.


4 receptions in 471 offensive snaps .... that's disappointing.

 

[sandman]

Maybe it just seemed like more ...

Either way , he had more penalties than receptions ..... of which he had 4 for 28 yards.


4 receptions in 471 offensive snaps .... that's disappointing.

He was targeted 7 times. I hope the disappointment is in the play-calling and not in CJ.

Newton, Jones, Brooks and Brown all had 5-6 penalties each. Considering how CJ was used this past season as an extra blocker more than as a receiver, was in on 43% of the snaps and was a rookie, I don't think his numbers were bad. Especially when 3 of them were false starts. That is just a snap count thing and should go away as he matures in the system. It's not like he had a holding problem.

IF the OB system truly will utilize TE's and last year was a by-product of installing a new system and running with a Band-Aid QB most of the season, I expect that CJ will look better this coming year.

 

[Hervoyel]

He was targeted 7 times. I hope the disappointment is in the play-calling and not in CJ.

Newton, Jones, Brooks and Brown all had 5-6 penalties each. Considering how CJ was used this past season as an extra blocker more than as a receiver, was in on 43% of the snaps and was a rookie, I don't think his numbers were bad. Especially when 3 of them were false starts. That is just a snap count thing and should go away as he matures in the system. It's not like he had a holding problem.

IF the OB system truly will utilize TE's and last year was a by-product of installing a new system and running with a Band-Aid QB most of the season, I expect that CJ will look better this coming year.

Sounds good to me! Breakout season approaching for CJ!

 

[Corrosion]

He was targeted 7 times. I hope the disappointment is in the play-calling and not in CJ.

Newton, Jones, Brooks and Brown all had 5-6 penalties each. Considering how CJ was used this past season as an extra blocker more than as a receiver, was in on 43% of the snaps and was a rookie, I don't think his numbers were bad. Especially when 3 of them were false starts. That is just a snap count thing and should go away as he matures in the system. It's not like he had a holding problem.

IF the OB system truly will utilize TE's and last year was a by-product of installing a new system and running with a Band-Aid QB most of the season, I expect that CJ will look better this coming year.

I said above its possible he was misused / underused.

But this is getting way off track from my original point which was we have a lack of talent on both sides of the ball and that lack of talent , especially on offense is going to make it very difficult on any QB much less one that is unproven.

Hopkins and just a guy #'s 1-4.

Foster missing 11 games over the past two seasons and just a guy behind him.

Who's at center ? Don't tell me Ben Jones ....

Ben Jones and Xavier Su'a-Filo at LG .... what a mess, they made Brown look average to bad last year. Yeah , maybe one of them gets it together. Most of us were high on Su'a-Filo coming out.


32 total receptions between the TE's - Graham , Griffin & Fiedorowicz. We all expected much greater usage of the TE's under OB ....

Then you have the holes on the DL and Lbers on defense.

DT - Ryan Pickett gone. He played pretty well all things considered. Nothing behind him.

DE - Watt is special. Crick is adequate. Nothing behind them.

OLB - Brooks Reed gone. Clowney a huge questionmark. Mercilus adequate. John Simon & Jason Ankrah behind them .... Simon did have his moments.

ILB - Cushing who might be JAG with a huge cap hit and the JAG's - Mike Mohamed , Akeem Dent , Justin Tuggle & Jeff Tarpinian. Maybe Cushing returns to form . of the rest I like Tarpinian.

I do like the back end of the defense ....

 

[PHILLYTEXANFAN]

Maybe it just seemed like more ...

Either way , he had more penalties than receptions ..... of which he had 4 for 28 yards.


4 receptions in 471 offensive snaps .... that's disappointing.

How many drops?

 

[Troy Chapman]

I find that hard to believe. It seemed like he was penalized every time he got in the game. He was horrible. Maybe they aren't counting penalties that were declined.

According to PFF, he had 6 cumulative penalties called against him, 1 was declined or off-setting.

 

[Corrosion]

How many drops?

Zero on 7 targets.

The one stat that sticks out to me is Graham's 49 receptions in 2014 , that's 53% more than the three of them combined in 2015.

Like I said above , most of us expected a much higher usage rate from the TE group under OB .... I complained about their usage in the first half of the season along with the lack of play action usage.

I'm beginning to wonder if that high usage of TE's in NE is more Belichick or Brady and not so much OB or if it was the QB situation but Fitz had a history of strong TE usage in the past , most specifically in Buffalo.


Still , this is kinda wandering away from my original point that there are lots of holes on the offense and that's going to make life difficult for any QB much less an unproven , inexperienced guy trying to win a job.

 

[welsh texan]

Was JJ Watt our best performing TE last season?

 

[steelbtexan]

I said above its possible he was misused / underused.

But this is getting way off track from my original point which was we have a lack of talent on both sides of the ball and that lack of talent , especially on offense is going to make it very difficult on any QB much less one that is unproven.

Hopkins and just a guy #'s 1-4.

Foster missing 11 games over the past two seasons and just a guy behind him.

Who's at center ? Don't tell me Ben Jones ....

Ben Jones and Xavier Su'a-Filo at LG .... what a mess, they made Brown look average to bad last year. Yeah , maybe one of them gets it together. Most of us were high on Su'a-Filo coming out.


32 total receptions between the TE's - Graham , Griffin & Fiedorowicz. We all expected much greater usage of the TE's under OB ....

Then you have the holes on the DL and Lbers on defense.

DT - Ryan Pickett gone. He played pretty well all things considered. Nothing behind him.

DE - Watt is special. Crick is adequate. Nothing behind them.

OLB - Brooks Reed gone. Clowney a huge questionmark. Mercilus adequate. John Simon & Jason Ankrah behind them .... Simon did have his moments.

ILB - Cushing who might be JAG with a huge cap hit and the JAG's - Mike Mohamed , Akeem Dent , Justin Tuggle & Jeff Tarpinian. Maybe Cushing returns to form . of the rest I like Tarpinian.

I do like the back end of the defense ....

Sad isn't it. Where is all of this supposed talent? This wasn't supposed to be a rebuild, who was in charge of acquiring talent under Kubiak? They need much more than what meets the eye. (A QB)

Hopefully Wilfork signs and plays well, Watt and Wilfork will mask a lot of issueson defense. I'm hoping a versatile LB like Dupree/Kendricks is available at 16, That would go along way to making the defense complete. Then go to work on adding speed to the offense.

 

[sandman]

Still , this is kinda wandering away from my original point that there are lots of holes on the offense and that's going to make life difficult for any QB much less an unproven , inexperienced guy trying to win a job.

Silver lining from a cap perspective if I read it right is that these three TE's are only counting about $6MM against the cap. CJ and Griffin are only $2MM combined. If they are able to display the potential they both have, that helps the overall numbers right? Cheap through at least the next two years gives them money to spend elsewhere. If they don't turn into anything special, we haven't burdened the cap with them. Graham on the other hand, at $4MM per year, can easily be dispensable in the last year of his contract in 2016 if they don't use the TE for receiving.

Understanding that it is not helping with the needs and $$$ this year. More just an observation that used or not used in the passing offense, it appears TE is a bargain position for the team the next few years. Or am I totally downplaying $6MM as not that much?

 

[steelbtexan]

Silver lining from a cap perspective if I read it right is that these three TE's are only counting about $6MM against the cap. CJ and Griffin are only $2MM combined. If they are able to display the potential they both have, that helps the overall numbers right? Cheap through at least the next two years gives them money to spend elsewhere. If they don't turn into anything special, we haven't burdened the cap with them. Graham on the other hand, at $4MM per year, can easily be dispensable in the last year of his contract in 2016 if they don't use the TE for receiving.

Understanding that it is not helping with the needs and $$$ this year. More just an observation that used or not used in the passing offense, it appears TE is a bargain position for the team the next few years. Or am I totally downplaying $6MM as not that much?

Cutting Graham/Clabo is where I would get the $$$$ to sign Wisniewski/Wilfork. Then draft a TE like Derby/Bell late in the draft. This isn't a good TE class. IMHO

 

[sandman]

Cutting Graham/Clabo is where I would get the $$$$ to sign Wisniewski/Wilfork. Then draft a TE like Derby/Bell late in the draft. This isn't a good TE class. IMHO

I could see cutting Graham because I'm just not sold that the TE is going to be featured in this offense. But why would you go all Kubes and draft another TE? You would already have CJ and Griffin on the roster who are under-utilized and are on the cheap through at least 2016.

 

[steelbtexan]

I could see cutting Graham because I'm just not sold that the TE is going to be featured in this offense. But why would you go all Kubes and draft another TE? You would already have CJ and Griffin on the roster who are under-utilized and are on the cheap through at least 2016.

You need 3 TE's on the roster.

 

[sandman]

You need 3 TE's on the roster.

Pick up a known quantity on the street for a third TE. Even late in the draft, there are too many holes to fill to use it on a third TE.

 

[Corrosion]

Cutting Graham/Clabo is where I would get the $$$$ to sign Wisniewski/Wilfork. Then draft a TE like Derby/Bell late in the draft. This isn't a good TE class. IMHO

I'm not so sure you need to draft a TE at all ..... Like I posted above , Graham had 49 catches in 2013 which is 53% more than the entire group saw in 2014.
Graham only had 28 targets in 2014 compared to 89 in 2013.
Those 2013 numbers are with Owen Daniels getting 24 receptions on 41 targets & Griffin 19 receptions and 28 targets.

Here's the 2013 & 2014 targets & receptions:

2013

Graham 89/49
OD 41/24
Griffin 28/19

2014

Graham 28/18
Griffin 16/10
Fiedorowicz 7/4
JJ Watt 3/3

These numbers point to a philosophical change in the offense to me .... Graham is a capable #1 TE option in the passing game and Griffin has made some great plays when given the opportunity.

Also take into consideration they ran much less play action last year .... that really frees up the middle of the field for those TE's.
(I know ,I bitched about this early last season - both the lack of play action & low usage of TE's in complaining about OB's offense).

Was JJ Watt our best performing TE last season?

Yes .... 3 targets 3 receptions 3 TD's.

 

[infantrycak]

You need 3 TE's on the roster.

Pick up a known quantity on the street for a third TE. Even late in the draft, there are too many holes to fill to use it on a third TE.

Anthony Denham is also on the roster.

 

[sandman]

Anthony Denham is also on the roster.

Boom.

If the TE becomes a focus, Graham is already proven. If the TE doesn't become a focus, we have a couple of big blockers on the cheap for a few years.

Let's focus our resources, both $$$ and draft picks, someplace besides TE.

 

[Corrosion]

Filled a couple of the holes I was complaining about with Wilfork & Shorts.

The defense , especially the front could be one of the leagues best with Watt , Wilfork , Clowney & Cushing if the latter two are healthy.


Shorts doesn't replace #80 but I think he'll be adequate opposite Hopkins. He hasn't had much at QB throwing him the ball in recent years and has still produced on occasion.


Center .... still a big question.


LG still a hot mess.


Didn't like the extension of Newton.


What's a tight end ?! Oh , you mean JJ Watt ?!


Quarterback?! Who ya got , Mallett or Hoyer ?! The Brady backup Bunch. Maybe one of them turns out to be a quality NFL starter ....

A backup for Foster ?


Fewer questions today than yesterday .... that's a step in the right direction.

 

[Playoffs]

Rookie Pool Estimates

The Rookie Pool is the total cost in cap dollars that a team needs to sign its rookies in the summer. The cap space required to do this is less than the rookie pool. This is because every draft pick signed will replace a player already counting against the cap...

 

[Texian]

That didn't take long for O'Brien to start mortgaging the future....

Albert Breer ‏@AlbertBreer 3m3 minutes ago

Texans DE JJ Watt did simple restructure. Converts $10M roster bonus to signing bonus. Creates $8M in space for '15, adds $2M to cap '16-'19

 

[michaelm]

That didn't take long for O'Brien to start mortgaging the future....

Albert Breer ‏@AlbertBreer 3m3 minutes ago

Texans DE JJ Watt did simple restructure. Converts $10M roster bonus to signing bonus. Creates $8M in space for '15, adds $2M to cap '16-'19

They have to be targeting somebody specific, I would think. Let's see what they do with the $$$.

 

[ChampionTexan]

They have to be targeting somebody specific, I would think. Let's see what they do with the $$$.

I wonder if this means they've made the decision to go ahead and keep JJo and just let his contract run out.

 

[Troy Chapman]

Was needed, and IMO does not signal any major signing coming. The team needed to get back to a comfortable position prior to the draft.

This was not a big surprise.

 

[CloakNNNdagger]

Wonder if this has anything to do with it.

From Rotoworld:

CSN Philly's Geoff Mosher reports the Eagles may release LG Evan Mathis if they can't trade him.

PFF's No. 1 guard in 2013 and No. 2 guard last season, we're not sure why the Eagles are so inclined to get rid of Mathis. The Eagles are between $7-8 million under the cap, so they're not desperate for money. Shedding the 33-year-old would save $4.5 million. At 6'5/298, Mathis is an athletic guard and would ideally land in another zone-blocking scheme. Mathis could probably be had for a fifth-round pick. The Rams and Dolphins were linked to him earlier this month.
Source: CSN Philly
Mar 23 - 8:46 PM

 

[infantrycak]

Was needed, and IMO does not signal any major signing coming. The team needed to get back to a comfortable position prior to the draft.

This was not a big surprise.

Well yeah something is up. They didn't "need" to get back into a comfortable position if they had used signing bonuses instead of roster bonuses for all the contracts they've done this off-season. Not saying to sign someone else but this is bizarre.

 

[IDEXAN]

I dunno maybe JJ has gone on spending binge and his cash flow has dried up over night ?

 

[infantrycak]

I dunno maybe JJ has gone on spending binge and his cash flow has dried up over night ?

This doesn't put a single extra $ in JJ's pocket - it's pure accounting.

 

[Troy Chapman]

Well yeah something is up. They didn't "need" to get back into a comfortable position if they had used signing bonuses instead of roster bonuses for all the contracts they've done this off-season. Not saying to sign someone else but this is bizarre.

Maybe some mid level FA like Bowers, but that's about it. This puts the team a tick over $11m in space. Then sign your draft class, then another $1.12m for practice squad, plus some more for IR etc. I see nothing big coming from this.

I wrote on this back in February on why the team opted to use the roster bonus in Watt's contract and the flexibility it offers.

 

[IDEXAN]

This doesn't put a single extra $ in JJ's pocket - it's pure accounting.

It' called tongue in cheek infantrycak. Can't I have some fun this morning ?
Or better yet, maybe it's a restructure because JJ is going to be traded ? Let's speculate the parties involved here besides Watt ?

 

[infantrycak]

Maybe some mid level FA like Bowers, but that's about it. This puts the team a tick over $11m in space. Then sign your draft class, then another $1.12m for practice squad, plus some more for IR etc. I see nothing big coming from this.

I wrote on this back in February on why the team opted to use the roster bonus in Watt's contract and the flexibility it offers.

That's not addressing the issue. I'm not asking what they are going to use the space for. Why stick over $12 mil in roster bonuses into the new contracts requiring a conversion of JJ's roster bonus? The salary cap effect is a wash.

 

[cland]

That's not addressing the issue. I'm not asking what they are going to use the space for. Why stick over $12 mil in roster bonuses into the new contracts requiring a conversion of JJ's roster bonus? The salary cap effect is a wash.

My guess is that there's a strange NFL accounting move behind this, assuming they don't spend it, as the unused cap gets pushed to future years anyways.

 

[Playoffs]

Joel Corry @JoelCorry

J.J. Watt now has a $14.5M cap number in 2016 & 2017. That's a $2M increase for each year because of the salary conversion.

The Texans converted J.J. Watt's $10M 15th day of league roster bonus (3/24) into signing bonus. 2015 cap # goes from $21.969M to $13.969M.

Corry said a while back that the way Watt's contract was written indicated to him that it would be restructured in 2015: http://www.sports790.com/media/podc...front-office-w-jayson-braddock11715-25744211/

 

[paycheck71]

That's not addressing the issue. I'm not asking what they are going to use the space for. Why stick over $12 mil in roster bonuses into the new contracts requiring a conversion of JJ's roster bonus? The salary cap effect is a wash.

ChampionTexan mentioned in another thread that JJ Watt probably is at the lowest risk of getting cut before his contract runs out compared to the other newly signed players, and therefore the Texans would be at lower risk of getting stuck with dead money down the road by restructuring his contract rather than structuring theirs in a way that pushes cap hits into the future years. That makes sense to me.

Sounds like they at least have an idea of who or what position they would like to sign. Does anyone know if there is a limit to how much cap space can be carried over to the next year if they don't use it all up this season?

 

[infantrycak]

ChampionTexan mentioned in another thread that JJ Watt probably is at the lowest risk of getting cut before his contract runs out compared to the other newly signed players, and therefore the Texans would be at lower risk of getting stuck with dead money down the road by restructuring his contract rather than structuring theirs in a way that pushes cap hits into the future years. That makes sense to me.

Not really buying it. And here is a similar argument going the other way. JJ being the safest should get the roster bonus over anyone with any question about retirement (Wilfork), behavior (KJ), health forced retirement (Moore) because signing bonus can be reclaimed by the team and roster bonus cannot.

Something's going on and it really has no adverse effect - just don't think we really know why yet.

 

[thunderkyss]

Joel Corry @JoelCorry


Corry said a while back that the way Watt's contract was written indicated to him that it would be restructured in 2015: http://www.sports790.com/media/podc...front-office-w-jayson-braddock11715-25744211/

Makes sense if "signing bonus" meant it would be due at signing & apply to the 2014 cap when we couldn't readily afford it.

 

[dalemurphy]

Well yeah something is up. They didn't "need" to get back into a comfortable position if they had used signing bonuses instead of roster bonuses for all the contracts they've done this off-season. Not saying to sign someone else but this is bizarre.

You may be right. However, it is also possible that they simply budget a certain amount of wiggle room in the cap heading into each season to leave room for the unknown and future acquisitions due to injury, etc.

Iam glad that we have the space to grab a few more quality free agents, though... Once the free agent guys we have targeted early in free agency dry up, it makes a lot of sense to hold off on other spending until after the draft. At that point, we can more effectively address team needs without dictating what positions must be targeted in the draft.