Bobby Slowik's offense is almost entirely reliant on Stroud to be magical, often while behind schedule. The cheat code for the Kyle Shanahan-tree offenses, for many years, has been to dominate on first downs. The goal is to avoid third downs altogether, but with quarterbacks
Matt Schaub,
Kirk Cousins and
Jimmy Garoppolo leading the way, succeeding on first down also kept those offenses out of obvious dropback situations on third-and-long. Adding a potential superstar such as Stroud to that mix only raised the ceiling for what was possible.
The Shanahan-tree teams dominated on early downs last season. On first down, the Dolphins ranked second in the league in EPA per play (0.10).
The 49ers were third (0.09). Slowik's Texans were sixth (0.05). This season, the Texans have dropped to 18th in EPA per play on first down and 29th on second down. They're not doing enough on early downs to move the chains or stay ahead of schedule.
In part, that's because the run game has been inconsistent. Mixon has been excellent at picking up short-yardage runs with his vision and has had some big plays, but he turned 14 carries into 22 yards Sunday. (The backs who replaced him while he was injured, mainly
Dare Ogunbowale and
Cam Akers, were a disaster.) The Texans didn't run for a single first down all game, something they've done twice this season. The rest of the league has done it only once combined.
By EPA, just 33.7% of Houston's running plays are successful in terms of keeping them on schedule to move the chains. That's the league's second-worst mark, ahead of only the Raiders. This was a problem last season, when their 35.6% mark was the fourth-worst figure, but the passing offense made up for it with better efficiency on early downs.
Instead, Stroud is facing a run of third-and-forevers. The average Texans third down has come with 8.2 yards to go, the second longest for any team. Nearly 39% of their third downs have come with 10 or more yards to go, which is the highest rate. Stroud has actually converted those at a higher rate (25%) than league average (17.5%), but no coordinator has a playbook for third-and-a-mile. Houston needs one, because it spends more time there than any other team.
Stroud ranks 25th in
QBR and 24th in EPA per dropback, behind
Drake Maye and
Trevor Lawrence. Trying to blame one element of the Texans offense for the problems isn't telling enough of the story. When a team can't pass block, can't run the ball consistently and doesn't do a great job of protecting the ball, it's not going to thrive, even if it has a difference-maker under center. This offense looks lost.