Texans' quarterback is TBD until March -- at least
6h
Kevin Seifert, NFL Nation
Barring an unlikely breakout, the
Houston Texans will enter the third offseason of coach Bill O'Brien's tenure right where they started it in 2014: looking for an answer at quarterback.
It's true that we're months away from that point, which by definition leaves plenty of time for the narrative to change. But the recent history of coaches who have shared O'Brien's quick trigger, and the analysis we can apply to his decisions over the past month, suggest a franchise-debilitating black hole. Backup
Ryan Mallett could provide the Texans a short-term boost, but it's much more likely that neither he nor deposed starter
Brian Hoyer will be part of any long-term solution.
O'Brien, of course, awarded Hoyer the starting job on Aug. 24 and then benched him midway through the fourth quarter of his first start just 20 days later. Mallett will start Sunday at the
Carolina Panthers,
O'Brien confirmed Thursday, and it's anyone's guess what will happen after that.
The chart embedded in this post puts into context how rare, and ultimately unsuccessful, such moves have been in recent history. Over the past 10 years, 21 teams have started a different quarterback in Weeks 1 and 2. All but four of them, however, were due to injury.
Derek Anderson Cam Newton 5-8-1 7-8-1 Yes
2014 STL Shaun Hill Austin Davis 3-5 6-10 No
2014 ARI
Carson Palmer Drew Stanton 5-3 11-5 Yes
2013 JAC
Blaine Gabbert Chad Henne 4-9 4-12 No
2012 ARI John Skelton Kevin Kolb 3-2 5-11 No
2010 CLE Jake Delhomme Seneca Wallace 1-3 5-11 No
2010 DET
Matthew Stafford Shaun Hill 3-7 6-10 No
2010 PHI Kevin Kolb
Michael Vick 8-3 10-6 Yes
2009 KC Brodie Croyle
Matt Cassel 4-11 4-12 No
2009 PHI Donovan McNabb Kevin Kolb 1-1 11-5 Yes
2008 TEN Vince Young Kerry Collins 12-3 13-3 Yes
2008 KC Brodie Croyle Damon Huard 1-2 2-14 No
2008 NE
Tom Brady Matt Cassel 10-5 11-5 No
2008 TB Jeff Garcia Brian Griese 3-2 9-7 No
2007 BAL Steve McNair Kyle Boller 2-6 5-11 No
2007 CLE Charlie Frye Derek Anderson 10-5 10-6 No
2007 NYJ Chad Pennington
Kellen Clemens 3-5 4-12 No
2006 KC Trent Green Damon Huard 5-3 9-7 Yes
2006 PIT Charlie Batch
Ben Roethlisberger 7-8 8-8 No
2005 BAL Kyle Boller Anthony Wright 2-5 6-10 No
2005 WAS Patrick Ramsey Mark Brunell 9-6 10-6 Yes
* bolded entries were coaching decisions
** Source: Elias Sports Bureau, ESPN Stats & Information
Three of the teams that made changes based on performance finished the season with winning records, but only one -- the 2005
Washington Redskins -- advanced to the playoffs. More important to the big picture: None of the replacements made it to the end of the following season as his team's unquestioned starter. Here is how those situations panned out:
- 2005 Redskins: Benched Patrick Ramsey in favor of Mark Brunell. Midway through 2006, the Redskins elevated 2005 first-round draft pick Jason Campbell to start over Brunell.
- 2007 Cleveland Browns: Benched starter Charlie Frye in favor of Derek Anderson. In 2008, Anderson was one of four quarterbacks to start for a 4-12 Browns team.
- 2008 Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Benched starter Jeff Garcia in favor of Brian Griese. In 2009, the Bucs made Josh Freeman their first-round draft pick and installed him as their starter in Week 8 of that season.
- 2014 St. Louis Rams: Benched starter Shaun Hill, an injury replacement for Sam Bradford, in favor of Austin Davis. After the season, the Rams acquired Nick Foles and did not re-sign Hill or Davis.
(It should be noted that the 2003 Carolina Panthers rode a Week 1 quarterback benching to the Super Bowl, but that season fell out of our 10-year range with Elias. Sorry, Jake Delhomme.)
The Texans could always buck history, of course. But what have you seen so far to suggest that Mallett could do it? Keep in mind that Hoyer was one of the NFL's five-worst starters last season,
based on Total Quarterback Rating, and was ranked No. 30 of 32 in
ESPN Insider's annual Quarterback Tiers project. O'Brien had a well-deserved reputation as a quarterback whisperer during his tenure as an assistant coach. If he thought Hoyer was the superior option last month, well, that doesn't say much for Mallett.
There's a stat to note here,
via Pro Football Focus. Despite a reputation for a strong arm, Mallett has completed only one pass targeted at least 20 yards downfield in his five-season career.
To be fair, the Texans don't deserve all the blame here. A quick look at the NFL's Week 1 quarterbacks shows there simply aren't enough starters to go around. (Hello,
Josh McCown and
Kirk Cousins.) But it's worth exploring why the Texans were one of the teams left standing when the music stopped.
The decline of
Matt Schaub in 2013 put the Texans in the best position imaginable to reload with a new coaching staff: the No. 1 overall pick in the 2014 draft. Unfortunately for them, that draft had no quarterback who merited selection there. The Texans drafted pass-rusher
Jadeveon Clowney, a defensible decision, but then declined to maneuver for any of the next five quarterbacks drafted -- a list that included
Teddy Bridgewater,
Derek Carr and
Jimmy Garoppolo, among others.
To this point, the selection of
Tom Savage in the fourth round hasn't paid dividends. At the minimum, the first two years of O'Brien's tenure -- a time when the framework of a championship rebuild should be laid -- will be limited by patchwork personnel at the game's most important position. The season is barely underway, and already the Texans are en route to their second consecutive year of quarterback TBD. See you in March.
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omg lol Thorn is right - this place would come apart at the seams.
