Support and keep Texans Talk going. Make a donation here.

[Pick 67] Davis Mills QB Stanford

welsh texan

All Pro
Early in the game day thread when the score was 7-0, someone posted he was outplaying Trey Lance. I don't recall reading any comparisons in the 2nd half.
Don’t forget the Tim Kelly wave we ride here. He prepared a good 4 quarters last week, so this week he only shows up in the first half before getting out manouvered by a rookie DC who took everything he wanted to do away.

Mills, for me, looked ok again yesterday, several rookie throws that he will need to grow out of, if he wants to be a franchise QB. There were also a few great throws in there which we weren’t seeing at all early in the season.

Mills also took a couple of hits yesterday.
 

Earl34

All Pro
Here's what the breakdown of the drives should be;

  • 3 plays, 5 yards, punt
  • 3 plays, 8 yards, punt
  • 5 plays, 9 yards, punt
  • 3 plays, 8 yards, punt
  • 14 plays, 85 yards, TD
  • 3 plays, -2 yards, punt
  • 5 plays, 16 yards, INT
  • 3 plays, 0 yards, punt
  • 8 plays, 17 yards, missed FG
  • 6 plays, 14 yards, punt
  • 4 plays, 8 yards, downs
  • 6 plays, 57 yards, end of game
I don't know how your source has 5 plays on the 1st drive. Even if you include the punt as a play, which it isn't, there were only 4. No penalties, nothing.
  • 1st & 10 - Burkhead up the middle for -4
  • 2nd & 14 - Mills pass to Burkhead for 6
  • 3rd & 8 - Mills pass to Burkhead for 3
  • 4th & 5 - Punt
That was the 1st possession.
My source is NFL.COM. It appears the NFL.COM drive summary included the kickoff in the number of offensive plays.

Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers 2021 REG 17 - Game Center (nfl.com)

1641300018016.png
 
That's an error on their part. Kick returns are not considered offensive plays.
That's correct, on kickoffs, the kicking team is on offense and the return team is on defense. However I believe it is also considered a change of possession. I wonder if NFL.com is tallying possessions and calling them plays? idonno:
 

SnakeEyes

Under NRG
Nobody knows if Mills is the future or not, not even the Texans. And if he isn't, we still need other players more than a newbie QB next draft anyway. Mills is good enough for next year, because next year we're still not going anywhere. I'd be happy with a game changing lineman (on either side) for our 1st pick.

And they should address the O-line before bring in a new QB if that's what they're going to do. Maybe Mills is the placeholder QB like Culley is the placeholder HC. We won't know any of this until we're already playing well into next year.

And if Mills is the answer, then maybe Caserio knows what he's doing, which like everything else with this frigging team, is yet to be determined.
Right now we pick 3rd. I honestly would go after either of the top 2 edge guys. If both are gone, trade down. Get 2 picks in the 1st, a bit later. Instead of the 3rd we would have like the 9th and 28th. And likely a middle 2nd also. I would happily take that. Fill more holes and getting more picks is never really a bad thing.
 

Earl34

All Pro
That's correct, on kickoffs, the kicking team is on offense and the return team is on defense. However I believe it is also considered a change of possession. I wonder if NFL.com is tallying possessions and calling them plays? idonno:
I think they are only doing it on their game summary. The summary is showing the result of the possession (Punt). The Gamebook is more accurate than their game summary. Go figure.
 

Speedy

Former Yeller Dweller
That's correct, on kickoffs, the kicking team is on offense and the return team is on defense. However I believe it is also considered a change of possession. I wonder if NFL.com is tallying possessions and calling them plays? idonno:
Odd that the Gamebook, which also comes from NFL.com, has it correct.
 

Number19

Hall of Fame
I get the 3 OCs in 3 years thing. But if the Texans don't think their future QB is on the roster yet, does that really matter?

And the new HC will be McDaniels, who just might be the OC as well.
Too many variables and scenarios. Last time the Texans waited too long before hiring Culley. This next time, whenever, they'll be making their changes early. We may know next week.
 

Number19

Hall of Fame
Overall agree but I don’t think he’s fired till the off season unless Caserio already has his replacement lined up. If not he can wait till the off season and possibly have more choices.
New league rules allow teams to interview candidates while still under contract, provided the opening exists. This is one reason being suggested why the Texans could be making their decision next week.
 

leebigeztx

Keep it Movin!
Gotta go through a couple of yrs of the rebuild and get some talent in place before McDaniels takes over. This draft and after the 2022 season McDaniels takes over and gets the 2023 draft talent to work with too. By 2024 I expect a contender. Particularly if Mills proves to be the answer at QB.
Here is what you posted. Just a reminder before you crawfish on me
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Here is what you posted. Just a reminder before you crawfish on me
I said a contender, nowhere did I say an AFCCG.

What I meant was 2 full drafts and you should've known this by that post. Sorry if I wasn't clear. The 2024 season will have 2 full draft classes on the team. Now that timeline could be accelerated if Derrick doesn't end up in prison.
 

leebigeztx

Keep it Movin!
I said a contender, nowhere did I say an AFCCG.

What I meant was 2 full drafts and you should've known this by that post. Sorry if I wasn't clear. The 2024 season will have 2 full draft classes on the team. Now that timeline could be accelerated if Derrick doesn't end up in prison.
I asked you what is a contender and you said afccg. I asked for clarification and you said afccg. Do I need to pull that one too?
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
I asked you what is a contender and you said afccg. I asked for clarification and you said afccg. Do I need to pull that one too?
Can you freaking read , I said if i said that , then I was wrong.

Nowhere in the post you quoted did I say that.

Again for the 3rd time, I think it's reasonable to give Caserio a couple of full drafts before expecting a playoff level contending team. Hopefully more depending on if he nails the draft

Apparently you have different expectations than I do. When I asked you what your expectations are, I didn't get an answer. I guess you're to busy hoping Mills fails to provide an answer. Wonder why that is? Because you certainly didn't provide me reasons why he would fail. You know things like arm strength/accuracy/anticipation etc... And this is despite me showing you how he's been improving and been the best rookie QB in the NFL for the last month. Plus with his inexperience he should only continue to improve as he gets more help around him and yes it's going to take a couple of drafts to put talent around him
 
Last edited:

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
IIRC, you said contending to go to an AFCCG, not that they had to reach that to be a contender...

Just my :twocents:
Yep, for some reason he's trying to switch my words around.Nowhere will you find that I said that the Texans will be in the AFCCG 3 yrs from now. Although if Caserio nails a couple of drafts and they get a bounty of picks for Derrick it could happen I suppose.
 

michaelm

vox nihili
Question -

Is this stat skewed if he can’t get the ball in the red zone? He had 49 yards passing in the game against the Colts. So if he couldn’t move the ball during that game between the twenties that isn’t factored in, right? So it may not tell the whole story.
It doesn't tell the whole story because it's not meant to tell the whole story.
Red zone performance has always been an important stand alone metric.
 

TexansBull

Hall of Fame
Mills did look better this last game than what I remembered Hoyer, Mallett, and Osweiler. He is headed in the right direction.

Was that bar too low for a third round rookie?

As long as he continues his upward trend, the play calling gets better, and he gets more help in the line and running backs there shouldn’t be a reason he doesn’t get better.
 

Thorn

Dirty Old Man
I'm happy with Mills for now. Having Mills means we don't have to use our high 1st round pick on a QB which isn't worth it this year. Which also means that if Mills isn't the answer we can take a QB in 2023, but with (probably) a lower round pick which also means we still probably won't get a really great one if we need one.

Which is all the thinking I need to do today. I might schedule some more thinking for tomorrow if I think about it.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
Where is it, you know you left it out on purpose...LOL
No. Didn’t leave it out. The Texans should move forward with Mills the same way New England will move forward with Jones, NYJets with Wilson, Chicago with Fields.

It might turn out like Cleveland with Baker, the NYJets with Darnold, or Miami with Tagovailoa
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
No. Didn’t leave it out. The Texans should move forward with Mills the same way New England will move forward with Jones, NYJets with Wilson, Chicago with Fields.

It might turn out like Cleveland with Baker, the NYJets with Darnold, or Miami with Tagovailoa
True we dont know if the last sentence will be true or not. I choose to believe things will be better than that. Why? Because he's already outplayed those guys in the last month of the season and outplayed the other rookies in the last month of the season. You combine these things and factor in how little experience he's had and as he gains more experience he should get even better at reading defenses.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
True we dont know if the last sentence will be true or not. I choose to believe things will be better than that. Why? Because he's already outplayed those guys in the last month of the season and outplayed the other rookies in the last month of the season. You combine these things and factor in how little experience he's had and as he gains more experience he should get even better at reading defenses.
I remember beerlover going on about Herbert last year. I told him Herbert looked good but his development could go south (especially considering the coaching change).

I don't see anything special about Mills yet. Maybe his accuracy. I've liked his ball placement better than any other Texans QB ever.

He's smart & he plays smart. IMO that's what's going to make him a top QB or not.
 

Lucky

Trust Me. I Know What I'm Doing.
Staff member
He's smart & he plays smart. IMO that's what's going to make him a top QB or not.
I think it's Mills' growth that has impressed me the most. He looked like a deer staring at headlights in the preseason. Totally lost. Seemed to be playing QB like a robot for most of the 1st half of the season. Over the last 5 games, you could see the lightbulb come on. I saw some intuition that Mills hadn't displayed prior. It's the little things that can turn into positive plays, 1st downs, and TDs.

The Texans averaged 334 yds in total offense over the last 5 games. Not earth shattering. That would have been 19th in the league over the course of the season. Still, over 80 yards/game more than the anemic, butt naked last offense we saw the previous 12 games. And the difference in the offense was Mills' maturation.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
I remember beerlover going on about Herbert last year. I told him Herbert looked good but his development could go south (especially considering the coaching change).

I don't see anything special about Mills yet. Maybe his accuracy. I've liked his ball placement better than any other Texans QB ever.

He's smart & he plays smart. IMO that's what's going to make him a top QB or not.
Herbert improved this yr.

I like how Mills improved on reading defenses and getting rid of the ball faster the 2nd go around. Schaub was very accurate.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
I think it's Mills' growth that has impressed me the most. He looked like a deer staring at headlights in the preseason. Totally lost. Seemed to be playing QB like a robot for most of the 1st half of the season. Over the last 5 games, you could see the lightbulb come on. I saw some intuition that Mills hadn't displayed prior. It's the little things that can turn into positive plays, 1st downs, and TDs.

The Texans averaged 334 yds in total offense over the last 5 games. Not earth shattering. That would have been 19th in the league over the course of the season. Still, over 80 yards/game more than the anemic, butt naked last offense we saw the previous 12 games. And the difference in the offense was Mills' maturation.
Just imagine if Caserio can draft to fix the OL/RB situations. We should see even more games like the last 5 games.
 

amazing80

Fire Easterby
Mills has very much proven enough to be the starter heading into next year and has eliminated our need to reach on a QB early. Focus on building the core of this team and allow Mills to develop. If he hasn't improved by the end of next year, we evaluate the team and decide if forcing the QB pick is where we are. The talent on the team is too far away for us to be reaching on another QB. Mills has shown enough to roll with for now.
 

Speedy

Former Yeller Dweller
I think it's Mills' growth that has impressed me the most. He looked like a deer staring at headlights in the preseason. Totally lost. Seemed to be playing QB like a robot for most of the 1st half of the season. Over the last 5 games, you could see the lightbulb come on. I saw some intuition that Mills hadn't displayed prior. It's the little things that can turn into positive plays, 1st downs, and TDs.

The Texans averaged 334 yds in total offense over the last 5 games. Not earth shattering. That would have been 19th in the league over the course of the season. Still, over 80 yards/game more than the anemic, butt naked last offense we saw the previous 12 games. And the difference in the offense was Mills' maturation.
More importantly, the Texans averaged 23.2 points per game in those 5 games, as opposed to 10.1 his 1st 6 starts.

His home/road splits are crazy though. 22 points per game, 12 TD, 1 INT, 109.6 PR at home, 9 points per game, 4 TD, 9 INT, 63.1 PR on the road.

The Texans have got to get rid of Kelly and show this kid a real NFL offense. He has a chance to turn into something nice, but I believe he gets held back if he continues in this OB/Kelly offense.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
D’uh… I was just saying you don’t know until you know. Remember Marc Sanchez? They were talking like he was going to be special. Then a switch was flipped & he fell off the face of the planet
I always thought Herbert was going to be good. I never thought Sanchez was that good coming out of college. I thought he went to a perfect situation with the NYJ and that team made him look better than he was. He was a media sensation because he was a good looking guy who went to school in LA and became the starting QB of championship ready NYJ team. Firms can market guys like that, but that doesn't make them franchise QB's

You know who I consider to be an avg QB in the future, not bad but not some generational QB as he's been touted? Trevor Lawrence.
 

Speedy

Former Yeller Dweller
I've seen this a lot. Just want to make sure everyone understands that there's only been 6 rookie QBs to ever take a snap for the Texans, and only TWO that have played more than 10 games, Carr (16) and Mills (13). And we're talking about Mills beating the guy who set the all-time sack record and led one of the worst offenses in NFL history.
 

JB

Old Curmudgeon
Contributor's Club
I've seen this a lot. Just want to make sure everyone understands that there's only been 6 rookie QBs to ever take a snap for the Texans, and only TWO that have played more than 10 games, Carr (16) and Mills (13). And we're talking about Mills beating the guy who set the all-time sack record and led one of the worst offenses in NFL history.
You seem to take a lot of pleasure in playing Debbie Downer recently
 

Speedy

Former Yeller Dweller
You seem to take a lot of pleasure in playing Debbie Downer recently
Not a Debbie Downer at all, and I certainly don’t take pleasure in any of this ****. I just try not to be disingenuous as much as possible.

Mills sets a Texans rookie record, and people are led to believe that’s some kind of great accomplishment, not realizing that he and Carr are the only 2 rookie QBs in that conversation. Good for Mills that he did it, but let’s stay in reality. Carr 16 games, Mills 13 games, no one else with more than 7 games. Just facts.
 

The Pencil Neck

Hall of Fame
Not a Debbie Downer at all, and I certainly don’t take pleasure in any of this ****. I just try not to be disingenuous as much as possible.

Mills sets a Texans rookie record, and people are led to believe that’s some kind of great accomplishment, not realizing that he and Carr are the only 2 rookie QBs in that conversation. Good for Mills that he did it, but let’s stay in reality. Carr 16 games, Mills 13 games, no one else with more than 7 games. Just facts.
OK, how about this: Highest Rated Rookie Passers in NFL history? (with a minimum of 14 passes per game)
1. Dak Prescott - 104.9
2. RG III - 102.4
3. Russell Wilson - 100.0
4. Justin Herbert - 98.3
5. Ben Roethlisberger - 98.1
6. Dan Marino - 96.0
7. Baker Mayfield - 93.7
8. Mac Jones - 92.5
9. Marcus Mariota - 91.5
10. Gardner Minshew - 91.2
11. Nick Mullens - 90.8
12. Joe Burrow - 89.8
13. Davis Mills - 88.8
14. Greg Cook - 88.3
15. Matt Ryan - 87.7
16. Daniel Jones - 87.7
17. Kyler Murray - 87.4
18. Tua Tagovailoa - 87.1
19. Teddy Bridgewater - 85.2
20. Austin Davis - 85.1
21. Cam Newton - 84.5

This does not mean that he's going to be a great quarterback or anything, but it is pretty impressive.
 

SnakeEyes

Under NRG
Not a Debbie Downer at all, and I certainly don’t take pleasure in any of this ****. I just try not to be disingenuous as much as possible.

Mills sets a Texans rookie record, and people are led to believe that’s some kind of great accomplishment, not realizing that he and Carr are the only 2 rookie QBs in that conversation. Good for Mills that he did it, but let’s stay in reality. Carr 16 games, Mills 13 games, no one else with more than 7 games. Just facts.
Wait, I didn't say it was great. I don’t think anyone else did either. I only saw the article and posted it. As Pencil Neck points out his numbers are about mid tier of rookie passer rating all time. I mean Dan Mario is on the list he posted.
 


Top