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Patriots under investigation

Tom Brady will be suspended by Roger Goodell for role in DeflateGate, announcement expected next week

Tom Brady will be the highest profile player ever suspended in the 96-year history of the NFL.

Roger Goodell's decision is expected to be announced next week and it is no longer a matter of if the NFL commissioner will suspend Brady, but for how long he will suspend him.

Source
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Such is life.
 
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I said this elsewhere and will say it here, if Tom Brady gets a longer suspension than Ray Rice got, we all ought to look in the mirror at the league we support. (Just my opinion I guess)
 
toronto said:
I said this elsewhere and will say it here, if Tom Brady gets a longer suspension than Ray Rice got, we all ought to look in the mirror at the league we support. (Just my opinion I guess)
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No offense but get over the Ray Rice thing. The league was trying to figure out to do with allegations. Frankly I think they ought to stay the hell out of criminal conduct. It should be up to the courts and their team. As it is Rice's career is over because of it. An 8 game suspension (not a prediction) would do jack to Tom Brady's legacy or career.
 
toronto said:
I said this elsewhere and will say it here, if Tom Brady gets a longer suspension than Ray Rice got, we all ought to look in the mirror at the league we support. (Just my opinion I guess)
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The NFL painted itself into a corner with its player misconduct policy where they levied punishment for mere suspicion of a crime. That in my mind was the main problem.
 
Texecutioner said:
I'm still waiting to hear from you guys about ATL using fake crowd noise or the Browns texting when they weren't supposed to, or the entire NFL "tampering" with free agents. I guess it's only cheating if the Patriots do it.
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Both ATL and CLE were punished for their transgressions.
Still waiting on what the punishment will be for the Pats.
 
infantrycak said:
No offense but get over the Ray Rice thing. The league was trying to figure out to do with allegations. Frankly I think they ought to stay the hell out of criminal conduct. It should be up to the courts and their team. As it is Rice's career is over because of it. An 8 game suspension (not a prediction) would do jack to Tom Brady's legacy or career.
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As always none taken. This is the dumbest most overblown "scandal" I have ever seen in this league, and that's saying something considering the league.
 
toronto said:
As always none taken. This is the dumbest most overblown "scandal" I have ever seen in this league, and that's saying something considering the league.
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Turn it around for a second. I agree on the outside it looks stupid and petty - Patriots would have won that game either way. BUT Tom Brady felt strongly enough about it to cheat while he was already on top of the world.

I'm someone who believes intent counts more than result. I don't think you should be in jail for less time because you're a bad shot trying to assassinate the president for instance.

We have people in this thread saying nothing will happen because it's Brady and the Patriots. It's, even if stupid, clear cheating. You gotta roll up the newspaper and smack the **** out of the dog.
 
infantrycak said:
Turn it around for a second. I agree on the outside it looks stupid and petty - Patriots would have won that game either way. BUT Tom Brady felt strongly enough about it to cheat while he was already on top of the world.

I'm someone who believes intent counts more than result. I don't think you should be in jail for less time because you're a bad shot trying to assassinate the president for instance.

We have people in this thread saying nothing will happen because it's Brady and the Patriots. It's, even if stupid, clear cheating. You gotta roll up the newspaper and smack the **** out of the dog.
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The tuck rule game riles me up a ton more than this. I get your point, but as many have pointed out, the Colts walked into that stadium defeated before a single ball had been messed with. They were awful on both sides of the ball, and makes this even dumber for me. On top of that, if Pete Carroll hadn't gone stupid and just ran his beast, this story loses a lot of its muscle, as we aren't talking about the defending champs here.

And on your point of "smacking the dog" do you think Belichick or this organization gives a flying **** or is fearful AT ALL about Goodell? They sure learned to stop "cheating" after the Spygate punishment didn't they? I can picture that call from Goodell to Kraft, about to tell him Brady is whacked, then Kraft reminds him who's his boss, and pfffffft.
 
toronto said:
And on your point of "smacking the dog" do you think Belichick or this organization gives a flying **** or is fearful AT ALL about Goodell? They sure learned to stop "cheating" after the Spygate punishment didn't they? I can picture that call from Goodell to Kraft, about to tell him Brady is whacked, then Kraft reminds him who's his boss, and pfffffft.
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My point on that is you adjust the punishment to make it hurt. Fine a guy who makes minimum wage $100, it hurts. Fine Tom Brady $100 and he pulls a bill off the lint in his pocket. A 4 game suspension (my prediction) is a likely 1-3 start. He'll have to come back and be GOAT to recover one of his last years. Either storyline kinda works for me.
 
infantrycak said:
My point on that is you adjust the punishment to make it hurt. Fine a guy who makes minimum wage $100, it hurts. Fine Tom Brady $100 and he pulls a bill off the lint in his pocket. A 4 game suspension (my prediction) is a likely 1-3 start. He'll have to come back and be GOAT to recover one of his last years. Either storyline kinda works for me.
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My prediction is the Pats are galvanized by this and re-adpot the "us vs the world" mentality that has basically worked for BB since 2002 and have the last laugh. That seems to be life as a NFL fan these days, whoever I hate/loathe the most wins.

Jon Stewart was hilarious on this

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NSswWxZxJqs
 
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NFL has known for 4 months what happened and still no punishment handed down. I will believe Brady is punished when I see it.
 
Armando Salguero @ArmandoSalguero
Don Shula was asked if the Patriots SB win is tainted due to #deflategate: "I think I'm going to pass on that answer."

Don Shula more complete quote: "Always done with a lot of class. A lot of dignity. Always done the right way. WE DIDN'T DEFLATE ANY BALLS."

The Dolphins today announce their 50th season (1966-2015) anniversary celebration.
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I know what you're all thinking: "As an insatiable reader of Brisco's posts, I wonder if he's above telling everyone 'I told ya so' based on his posts from January.

Nope.

But this isn't just an "I told ya so." This is also "the trail of data validates the punishment." So sorta-but-not-really like humble bragging, I give you practical bragging.

Take it away, Brisco...

Brisco_County said:
This is about to get uglier. It's not just about the QB grip. The graphs and data in this article indicate that it not only resulted in a statistically impossible fumble rate, but it's been happening for five years.

The Patriots averaged 73 plays/fumble the past 5 years, almost 70% better than the 43 plays/fumble that outdoor teams averaged since 2000.

...

If this chart looks nearly identical, it should. The Patriots are so “off the map” when it comes to either fumbles or only fumbles lost. As mentioned earlier: this is an extremely abnormal occurrence and is NOT simply random fluctuation.
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Link

This rabbit hole's about to get deeper. The data is there. Five years they've been pulling this.
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Hmmm, sweet sweet validation. Gimme more of that stuff!

The article raises three points that the media is not emphasizing, but should be:

  • Deflating the balls was not just about benefitting the QB and receivers.
  • Ball security is often the determining factor in winning.
  • The statistical trend strongly suggests that this has been happening for five years.
Sharp's analysis drew some healthy skepticism, so he did follow up research on the most popular question, and it fully supports his original conclusion:

New England Patriots Fumble More Often When Playing for Other Teams

...Of all the questions raised, the one most frequently asked (by literally hundreds of people) was: “What if you take a look at individual players when playing for the Patriots and when playing on other teams? How does the data change, and what would it tell us?” It was a terrific suggestion.
  • Patriots players fumbled SIGNIFICANTLY more often when playing on other NFL teams than when playing for the Patriots:
  • The most utilized of the Patriots players fumbled even more frequently when paying for other NFL teams:
  • Learning ball possession skills in New England did NOT transfer to other NFL teams after players left:
  • In fact, the opposite was true – players were MORE secure carrying the football before even playing for the Patriots than they were after leaving the Patriots.
...

Quick sidebar: Without even knowing what happened in 2007, I can tell from the data something changed for New England which did not change for the other 31 NFL teams. But the stars apparently are aligning on a NFL rule change which Tom Brady (and Peyton Manning) lobbied in favor of, and the NFL agreed to change policies. Brady wanted the NFL to let EVERY team provide its OWN footballs to use on offense. Prior to that year, the HOME team provided ALL the footballs, meaning the home quarterback selected the footballs the ROAD quarterback would play with on offense.
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Link

This kind of offensive advantage wasn't coordinated by an equipment manager going rogue.
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But who wants to practical brag by himself? Join the party, Playoffs!

Playoffs said:
[imgwidthsize=600]http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/NEW-Fumble-Chart-3.png[/IMG]

Interesting...

Looks like Patriots are 3 standard deviations away from the norm.

They must only draft players with very strong hands.
laughing-smiley-with-hand-in-front-of-mouth.gif
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And finally this:

Playoffs said:
Brady pushed for rule to let visiting team provide own footballs
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Which leads us to the Wells Report. Yeah, it implicates Brady, when the above evidence alleges Belichick. But Brady was the one who was caught, and Belichick's not falling on his sword for a QB he's already in the process of replacing.

Now that I've taken credit for my ctrl+V skills, the most deserved practical bragging belongs to Sharp Football Analysis. Here's his May 6th post:

Ultimately, my two main conclusions from the research:

Point #1 - Something occurred between 2006 and 2007 which allowed the Patriots to fumble the ball at an extremely low rate moving forward when compared to the rate their team fumbled from 2000-06 (Bill Belichick started coaching the team in 2000).

Point #2 - Whatever occurred caused the Patriots to shift from a team who fumbled the football the league average (in 2000-2006) to a team who was so superior when compared any other team the odds it was a mere coincidence are extremely unlikely.

We also know one key piece of information: In 2006, Tom Brady was one of the quarterbacks leading the charge to get the rule changed, so that road QBs could provide their own “worn in” game balls. And then, in 2007, the team became extremely fumble-averse.

One of the key graphics from the final story is below:

UPDATED-Patriots-Fumble-Rate-Histogram-Comparison-00-06-v-07-141.png
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At this point, I bet some of you doubting Thomases are thinking: "Nice try, Brisco, but you still haven't linked the evidence in the Wells Report to a five year advantage in ball security."

Warren Sharp just answered that in a post he put up about ten minutes ago:

An innocuous bombshell was dropped in the Ted Wells Report on Deflategate which was overlooked by many, but which could be one of its most key findings.

Wells-Rep-Pg-42.png
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Link

I'll end this by quoting myself from January 23rd, not as a brag this time, but because this is still how I feel:

When I read that [the league was angry and distraught], I had thought that using "distraught" was a little too much, a little dramatic. But now I'm thinking that the league was well aware that the Patriots were a statistical outlier in certain categories, and were wondering how that was being achieved by a coach with a history of cheating. Well now they have their answer one week before their biggest event. "Distraught."
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Brady is going to get suspended, but it will get knocked down on appeal.

Goodell has waited this long in order to test public opinion and have the punishment mirror that. I would assume Brady gets 4-6 games and a fine, but his appeal will knock that down to 2 games or so.

The NFL has no legs to stand on. There is no discernible proof with the evidence. It cites a probable cause, but nothing more.
 
Brisco_County said:
I know what you're all thinking: "As an insatiable reader of Brisco's posts, I wonder if he's above telling everyone 'I told ya so' based on his posts from January.
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your shoulder must be double-jointed from patting yourself on the back that much
:kitten:
 
toronto said:
I said this elsewhere and will say it here, if Tom Brady gets a longer suspension than Ray Rice got, we all ought to look in the mirror at the league we support. (Just my opinion I guess)
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This is a non-sequitur.

Off field disciplining of a child, even overdoing it, is not the same thing as cheating in the game itself. One is governed by law and the other by the Commissioner of the NFL. The jurisdiction and standards of proof are different as they should be.

But the parents who let their kids run wild and uncontrolled are also exercising a form of abuse, so keep that in mind as you point fingers at Ray Rice.
 
Marshall said:
This is a non-sequitur.

Off field disciplining of a child, even overdoing it, is not the same thing as cheating in the game itself. One is governed by law and the other by the Commissioner of the NFL. The jurisdiction and standards of proof are different as they should be.

But the parents who let their kids run wild and uncontrolled are also exercising a form of abuse, so keep that in mind as you point fingers at Ray Rice.
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What does Ray Rice have to do with disciplining a child?
 
Interesting question...

Why doesn't the NFL go to Nitrogen filled balls, as it reacts less to temperature variations. We do it with our car tires. Any scientists out there?
 
Playoffs said:
Interesting question...

Why doesn't the NFL go to Nitrogen filled balls, as it reacts less to temperature variations. We do it with our car tires. Any scientists out there?
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Who does it with car tires? Pretty much only specialty applications.

The difference is negligible. Air is 78% nitrogen to begin with.

There is no significant difference in expansion and contraction characteristics of nitrogen compared to air when moisture is absent. Expansion or contraction of either gas, in relation to temperature change, occurs to a similar extent over the commonly encountered pressure and temperature ranges releveant to the discussion of tire inflation. There is no practical difference as long as the gases are dry in a fixed volume container such as a tire.
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Link
 
ObsiWan said:
your shoulder must be double-jointed from patting yourself on the back that much
:kitten:
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Maybe a little, but if I don't remind people of this data on ball security, people will continue to minimize their perception of this violation.

We need to be honest about the significance of enhanced ball security in a 16 to 20 game season. It doesn't mean the Patriots aren't a good football team; It means they cheated for five years.
 
Brisco_County said:
Maybe a little, but if I don't remind people of this data on ball security, people will continue to minimize their perception of this violation.

We need to be honest about the significance of enhanced ball security in a 16 to 20 game season. It doesn't mean the Patriots aren't a good football team; It means they cheated for five years.
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Isn't it 8 years since 2007? And it only helped them to 3 SB's :kitten:
 
Playoffs said:
Interesting question...

Why doesn't the NFL go to Nitrogen filled balls, as it reacts less to temperature variations. We do it with our car tires. Any scientists out there?
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We do? Air is about 78% nitrogen already, but I'm not aware of anyone using a more concentrated nitrogen for tires.

Google turned up this:

http://www.tirerack.com/tires/tiret...65986&ef_id=U75z2wAAAPwKbgDN:20150510202734:s

Interesting that they recommend you just check your tire pressure regularly rather than spend the extra money for nitrogen. And the deflate gate comes immediately after the officials checked the pressure. Hmmm
 
Playoffs said:
Lexus started doing it on my cars a number of years ago.
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That's probably more to avoid the deteriorating affects of O2 on the rubber and to eliminate any adverse moisture effects that you'd get by using shop air which is just plain ole Houston air pumped up to tire pressure. But those effects are very, very minimal. Keeping your tires properly inflated with regular old shop air will do you more good. It's kind of a scam, like undercoating - remember that BS from the 70s and 80s??

As far as using N2 in NFL footballs, it wouldn't hurt but I doubt if there would be any noticeable difference.
 
Marshall said:
The saddest thing is that they probably didn't have to cheat but chose to anyway.
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The first time the Patriots were caught cheating, I believed as much. The second time, I questioned that reasoning. Now... I believe its the reason behind their success. All of it. I believe that's why Belichick looks like a genius, always a step ahead of everyone... why the mundane, nothing special about him 6th round pick, passed over again & again at the collegiate level for better talent QB looks like the GOAT...


Scapegoat now.
 
infantrycak said:
Who does it with car tires? Pretty much only specialty applications.

The difference is negligible. Air is 78% nitrogen to begin with.
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xtruroyaltyx said:
I got new tires about a month ago and the shop used nitrogen as well. First I had heard of it though.
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Marshall said:
We do? Air is about 78% nitrogen already, but I'm not aware of anyone using a more concentrated nitrogen for tires.
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Weird - I've had it done by Costco and other places for years (never something I paid extra for)

Summation from Edmunds regarding a CR study. Link
In 2006, Consumer Reports conducted a year-long study to determine how much air loss was experienced in tires filled with nitrogen versus those filled with air. The results showed that nitrogen did reduce pressure loss over time, but it was only a 1.3 psi difference from air-filled tires. Among 31 pairs of tires, the average loss of air-filled tires was 3.5 psi from the initial 30 psi setting. Nitrogen-filled tires lost an average of 2.2 psi from the initial setting. Nitrogen won the test, but not by a significant margin.
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disaacks3 said:
Weird - I've had it done by Costco and other places for years (never something I paid extra for)

Summation from Edmunds regarding a CR study. Link
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Good info. Consumer Reports runs solid tests so I believe the data.

but it's a little extreme, I mean, who goes a year without checking tire pressure? They probably had to go that long to get a significant diff.
 
Adam Schefter ‏@AdamSchefter
And now NFL has announced it.

Tom Brady suspended four games,

Patriots fined $1 million,

lose two picks. 1st 2016, 4th 2017.
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AlbertBreer @AlbertBreer
Full NFL release: The New England Patriots were notified today of the following discipline that has been imposed for violations of the NFL Policy on Integrity of the Game and Enforcement of Competitive Rules relating to the use of under-inflated footballs in the AFC Championship Game of this past season:

For the violation of the playing rules and the failure to cooperate in the subsequent investigation, the New England Patriots are fined $1 million and will forfeit the club’s first-round selection in the 2016 NFL Draft and the club’s fourth-round selection in the 2017 NFL Draft. If the Patriots have more than one selection in either of these rounds, the earlier selection shall be forfeited. The club may not trade or otherwise encumber these selections.

Patriots owner Robert Kraft advised Commissioner Roger Goodell last week that Patriots employees John Jastremski and James McNally have been indefinitely suspended without pay by the club, effective on May 6th. Neither of these individuals may be reinstated without the prior approval of NFL Executive Vice President of Football Operations Troy Vincent. If they are reinstated by the Patriots, Jastremski is prohibited from having any role in the preparation, supervision, or handling of footballs to be used in NFL games during the 2015 season. McNally is barred from serving as a locker room attendant for the game officials, or having any involvement with the preparation, supervision, or handling of footballs or any other equipment on game day.

Quarterback Tom Brady will be suspended without pay for the first four games of the 2015 regular season for conduct detrimental to the integrity of the NFL. Brady may participate in all off-season, training camp and pre-season activities, including pre-season games.

Commissioner Goodell authorized the discipline that was imposed by NFL Executive President Troy Vincent, pursuant to the commissioner’s disciplinary authority under the NFL Constitution and Bylaws and the Collective Bargaining Agreement with the NFL Players Association. “We reached these decisions after extensive discussion with Troy Vincent and many others,” Commissioner Goodell said. “We relied on the critical importance of protecting the integrity of the game and the thoroughness and independence of the Wells report.”
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AlbertBreer @AlbertBreer
From Troy Vincent's letter to Tom Brady:

“With respect to your particular involvement, the report established that there is substantial and credible evidence to conclude you were at least generally aware of the actions of the Patriots’ employees involved in the deflation of the footballs and that it was unlikely that their actions were done without your knowledge.

Moreover, the report documents your failure to cooperate fully and candidly with the investigation, including by refusing to produce any relevant electronic evidence (emails, texts, etc.), despite being offered extraordinary safeguards by the investigators to protect unrelated personal information, and by providing testimony that the report concludes was not plausible and contradicted by other evidence.

“Your actions as set forth in the report clearly constitute conduct detrimental to the integrity of and public confidence in the game of professional football. The integrity of the game is of paramount importance to everyone in our league, and requires unshakable commitment to fairness and compliance with the playing rules. Each player, no matter how accomplished and otherwise respected, has an obligation to comply with the rules and must be held accountable for his actions when those rules are violated and the public’s confidence in the game is called into question.”​
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From Troy Vincent’s letter to the Patriots:

“On May 6th, independent investigator Ted Wells issued his report regarding the footballs used by the Patriots in this year’s AFC Championship Game. That report established that the footballs used by the Patriots were inflated at a level that did not satisfy the standard set forth in the NFL’s Official Playing Rules and that the condition of the footballs was the result of deliberate actions by employees of the Patriots. The activities of the Patriots’ employees were thoroughly documented in the report, including through a series of text messages and telephone communications, as well as evidence of a breach in pre-game protocol. In addition, the conclusions were supported by extensive scientific analysis, as detailed in the report.

“Based on the extensive record developed in the investigation and detailed in the Wells report, and after full consideration of this matter by the Commissioner and the Football Operations department, we have determined that the Patriots have violated the NFL's Policy on Integrity of the Game and Enforcement of Competitive Rules, as well as the Official Playing Rules and the established guidelines for the preparation of game footballs set forth in the NFL’s Game Operations Policy Manual for Member Clubs. In making this determination, we have accepted the findings contained in the comprehensive report independently prepared by Mr. Wells and his colleagues.

“In determining that a violation occurred, we applied the standard of proof stated in the Integrity of the Game Policy: namely, preponderance of the evidence, meaning that ‘as a whole, the fact sought to be proved is more probable than not.’ This is a well-recognized legal standard, which is applied in courts and workplaces every day throughout the country. The evidence gathered during the investigation and reviewed in the report more than satisfy this standard and demonstrate an ongoing plan by at least certain Patriots’ employees to deflate footballs, to do so in a secretive manner after the game officials have certified the footballs as suitable for play, and to hide these activities even from their own supervisors.

“As you know, we regard violations of competitive rules as significant and deserving of a strong sanction, both to punish the actual violation and to deter misconduct in the future. In this case, the footballs were intentionally deflated in an effort to provide a competitive advantage to Tom Brady after having been certified by the game officials as being in compliance with the playing rules. While we cannot be certain when the activity began, the evidence suggests that January 18th was not the first and only occasion when this occurred, particularly in light of the evidence referring to deflation of footballs going back to before the beginning of the 2014 season.

“It is impossible to determine whether this activity had an effect on the outcome of games or what that effect was. There seems little question that the outcome of the AFC Championship Game was not affected. But this has never been a significant factor in assessing discipline. There are many factors which affect the outcome of a game. It is an inherently speculative exercise to try to assign specific weight to any one factor. The key consideration in any case like this is that the playing rules exist for a reason, and all clubs are entitled to expect that the playing rules will be followed by participating teams. Violations that diminish the league's reputation for integrity and fair play cannot be excused simply because the precise impact on the final score cannot be determined.

“Here, there are several factors that merit strong consideration in assessing discipline. The first is the club’s prior record. In 2007 the club and several individuals were sanctioned for videotaping signals of opposing defensive coaches in violation of the Constitution and Bylaws. Under the Integrity of the Game Policy, this prior violation of competitive rules was properly considered in determining the discipline in this case.

“Another important consideration identified in the Policy is ‘the extent to which the club and relevant individuals cooperated with the investigation.’ The Wells report identifies two significant failures in this respect. The first involves the refusal by the club’s attorneys to make Mr. McNally available for an additional interview, despite numerous requests by Mr. Wells and a cautionary note in writing of the club’s obligation to cooperate in the investigation.

The second was the failure of Tom Brady to produce any electronic evidence (emails, texts, etc.), despite being offered extraordinary safeguards by the investigators to protect unrelated personal information. Although we do not hold the club directly responsible for Mr. Brady’s refusal to cooperate, it remains significant that the quarterback of the team failed to cooperate fully with the investigation.

“Finally, it is significant that key witnesses – Mr. Brady, Mr. Jastremski, and Mr. McNally - were not fully candid during the investigation.

“In accepting the findings of the report, we note that the report identified no evidence of wrongdoing or knowledge of wrongdoing on the part of any member of the coaching staff, including Head Coach Bill Belichick, or by any Patriots’ staff member other than Mr. Jastremski and Mr. McNally, including head equipment manager Dave Schoenfeld. Similarly, the Wells report is clear that Patriots ownership and executives did not participate in any way in the misconduct, or have knowledge of the misconduct.

“Nonetheless, it remains a fundamental principle that the club is responsible for the actions of club employees. This principle has been applied to many prior cases. Thus, while no discipline should or will be imposed personally on any owner or executive at the Patriots, discipline is appropriately imposed on the club.”
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mark schlereth ‏@markschlereth
NFL dropping the hammer on Tom Brady and the Patriots! Just like all parents say the punishment is going to be far worse if you lie to me!
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Adam Caplan ‏@caplannfl
#Patriots have a week 4 bye, so Brady's first game this season will be in week 6 at Colts.
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I expect an appeal of the suspension and reduction to maybe 2 games.
 
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