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Nick Caserio - New GM

Bill Belichick on drafting and grading players;

Rumor Mill

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“Not trying to be evasive about the grading and all that, but I would just say that we don’t grade players like 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. That’s just not, it’s just not the way we do it,” Belichick said, via MassLive.com. “We use a combination of numbers, letters, colors and those things all have different meanings, depending upon what they would indicate about the player’s circumstances or situation or whatever it is that involved the players. And all the players are different and a lot of them, you know, in the end there really aren’t that many of them that come to the school, play their career there, and leave. There’s things that happen in between and a variety of circumstances and so we have ways to identify those. So sometimes the color’s going to override the number, sometimes the letter is going override the numbers or the colors and so forth.
“And so it’s not, you know, this guy’s at an 85 and this guy’s at an 83, it just doesn’t work like that. There’s a number, a color, possibly a letter or letters that go with those players and those things could all, depending upon what they represent, could all override something else that’s a part of the grade. So it’s just really the way we identify the player and tag the player is one that helps us classify.
“It’s just too hard to generalize and give a player an 85 grade or whatever and then, like what does that mean? But if you can tag that grade, that number grade, whatever it is, with something that would indicate other things regarding injuries or how many schools he’s been to or whether he was a transfer or if he came out early or if he switched positions or so forth and so on, played at a lower level of competition, I mean, there’s dozens of things here that we could talk about. It becomes a pretty complex scale.
“So not trying to ignore with him what it is, but it would be impossible for me to sit here and explain the grade scale and how it works and interacts and all that. That takes, honestly, you know, months of, I would say, understanding between the scouting department and working through a lot of different situations to really be able to utilize it effectively so we can categorize players in the right, in what we feel is the right fashion. Not saying it’s right, but we do it so that we can identify things and have ways to work through players and their situations to try to have as fair and as good an evaluation on them as we can.”
Belichick also said he doesn’t draft for positions of need, but instead drafts good football players at any position.
“I would say I’ve never gone into a draft saying, like, well, we got to draft somebody or other at this position or this group of positions or whatever,” Belichick said. “It’s sometimes those players are there and sometimes they’re not. Sometimes they’re there and you can really use them and sometimes they’re there and maybe you don’t feel that it’s as necessary, but then when you get good players on your team inevitably you use them.
“So I’ve heard that before: Why did you draft James White and he’s inactive all year? And why did you draft Damien Harris and he was inactive all year? And then later on the next year and in the course of their careers those guys have, those are examples of guys that became very valuable. So that’s — I think you try to acquire good football players and we’ll figure out how to use them.”
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QB Davis Mills (Stanford), Houston Texans, third round – “I think he’s a steal. His game fits the NFL really well. With the offense they run, he really gets through his progressions. He’s decisive and has above-average ability to anticipate and hit windows. His game can translate quickly to a pocket passer.”

TE Brevin Jordan (Miami), Houston Texans, fifth round – “I love the way he moves for a tight end. He’s way more talented than a fifth-rounder. The way he can flex outand play receiver complements the way that the game is going. He reminds me of Evan Engram [New YorkGiants], and could be a strong red-zone weapon.”
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https://twitter.com/x/status/1389214399991324677
 
PICK 15 – QB DWAYNE HASKINS, WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Big Board Rank: 10th

Haskins is far from a perfect quarterback prospect, but few are. Quite simply, there is nothing more valuable in the NFL today than competent quarterback play on a rookie deal. The Redskins are completely behind the 8-ball with the Alex Smith contract, and they can’t realistically get out of the money until 2021! With the Haskins move, the Redskins set themselves up for a quarterback on a rookie deal to be entering his prime right as they get out from under Smith’s contract. The kicker is that they didn’t need to give up any draft capital to do so – a rarity when addressing the quarterback position in the first round.
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www.pff.com

Steals of the 2019 NFL Draft | NFL Draft | PFF

Pro Football Focus runs through its list of the top steals in the 2019 NFL Draft.
www.pff.com www.pff.com
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zshawn10 said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1389214399991324677
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Nice work dude.
After a bit of research, I am very glad we got this kid. Even if he doesn't play this year, he can become a valuable player for us even if nothing more than a good backup but I think he can ultimately become more than that. Very highly rated by opposing coaches.
I noticed when pick 67 came up, the pick was in almost immediately so Caserio did not waste any time getting that card in!
I am also very hopeful for Nico Collins - tall, fast, has long arms and contests the ball very well.
Needs work on his route running but that can be taught.
Will be a real red zone and deep ball threat.
 
Caserio is upper management material. Not quite what I expected but has the composure and make-up executives/ownership covet. The pursuit, to wrestle him away from New England has cost this franchise dearly, basically floundering two years of incompetence. Given that, very hard for me to like him or ownership to have such tunnel vision.

Free agency and draft turned over the roster like we haven’t seen since expansion and not with any top prospects or talent, more average and serviceable @ every position. We won’t know for sure until next offseason what moves in free agency or the draft Nick can pull off to actually improve this roster. Jury is still out, painful as it is with some glimmer of hope.
 
beerlover said:
Caserio is upper management material. Not quite what I expected but has the composure and make-up executives/ownership covet. The pursuit, to wrestle him away from New England has cost this franchise dearly, basically floundering two years of incompetence. Given that, very hard for me to like him or ownership to have such tunnel vision.

Free agency and draft turned over the roster like we haven’t seen since expansion and not with any top prospects or talent, more average and serviceable @ every position. We won’t know for sure until next offseason what moves in free agency or the draft Nick can pull off to actually improve this roster. Jury is still out, painful as it is with some glimmer of hope.
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Well said, man.

I agree completely. At the same time, I'm actually starting to look forward to the 2021 season, just to see how it all comes together.

It's certainly a better thing to look forward to than an O'Brien sixth season. I never felt O'Brien was building a damn thing. At least with Caserio, I feel like he's working toward a goal, even if it takes multiple years to build it.
 
ArlingtonTexan said:
Bill Belichick on drafting and grading players;

Rumor Mill

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Literally how every team organizes grades for players, there’s no secret formula for that process.

There’s been a lot of chatter in NE about Patriots lack of success in the draft. Some up there are trying to hang it on Caserio, saying everything is ‘new’ now and good up there, yada yada.

The problem in NE, the reason so many scouts end up not renewing with them, is because of Belichick. Scouts put years of work in on a guy, scouting department heads goes through the building the board process and build a draft plan, then Belichick comes in last minute and goes rogue based on his intel and his gut. After years of not having your work valued, scouts just want out. That is what has been happening in NE.

So if there have been meaningful changes there, it would be reducing Belichick’s role in turning everything upside down last minute and only Kraft could do that. Now none of this speaks to whether Caserio’s drafts will be successful, we just don’t know - 2021 is mostly a throwaway. But they will be collaborative efforts inclusive of the entire scouting department/process. Still a 50/50 proposition at best, we’ll see which way the coin lands over the next few years.
 
Double Barrel said:
Well said, man.

I agree completely. At the same time, I'm actually starting to look forward to the 2021 season, just to see how it all comes together.

It's certainly a better thing to look forward to than an O'Brien sixth season. I never felt O'Brien was building a damn thing. At least with Caserio, I feel like he's working toward a goal, even if it takes multiple years to build it.
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That's kinda how I feel man, because I'm starting get a little tingle of anticipation now and then for the upcoming season.
Yea Casserio is no doubt a man with a plan because he's been waiting 20 years for this opportunity an it would appear he has complete control of the roster which is fine with me.
And after drafting a QB with our "top" pick its' really starting to feel like we'll be getting this whole DW4 debacle behind us eventually.
 
TxnsJuggernaut1 said:
I will be happy if we can be competitive in most of the games we play. If our guys improve and play hard and don't tune out, and they buy into the coaching staff while playing as a cohesive unit, it will be a succesful season to me and it will lead me to feel that our rebuild may be completed sooner than anybody expects.
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It'll be a pleasant surprise if they are competitive against anyone but other bad teams. I think people are putting to much into this season and to much into the draft and the new Texans regime WAY to early. They cleaned house with the players and staff, many of us have been asking for that for years. Not under these circumstances of course, but we did get what we asked for. :lol:
 
Thorn said:
It'll be a pleasant surprise if they are competitive against anyone but other bad teams. I think people are putting to much into this season and to much into the draft and the new Texans regime WAY to early. They cleaned house with the players and staff, many of us have been asking for that for years. Not under these circumstances of course, but we did get what we asked for. :lol:
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About time, even if they suck next yr.
 
Lucky said:
By whom? And how?

The record is important in 2021. It's important they have a poor record. There are no star players left on this team. Watson is as good as gone. Tunsil will be gone by the time this team is competitive. The Texans need to pick at the top of the draft for the next 2-3 years. The Niners, Bucs, Rams, and Browns used the draft to get better. Even the Bills had top 10 picks 3 years in a row. That's what Caserio is trying to do. He's using the back of the roster FA signings to camouflage his intentions from ownership. That's not difficult to do. Everyone else sees what is happening here. Or should.
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@Lucky I took this from another thread. Why do you think this (in bold)? The McNairs wanted Caserio and will trust him to no end at least for a few years. I'm sure he has outlined his approach to this roster turnover as needed with the restrictions of draft and cap resources dealt by the previous regime(s).
 
KoolAid Sipper said:
@Lucky I took this from another thread. Why do you think this (in bold)? The McNairs wanted Caserio and will trust him to no end at least for a few years. I'm sure he has outlined his approach to this roster turnover as needed with the restrictions of draft and cap resources dealt by the previous regime(s).
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Why are you sure?
 
Thorn said:
But next year they should suck less than this year. If they don't, then and only then will we know we are being fed the same old sh!t. This year's a wash, just be prepared for the lines in your forehead from all the facepalming. :lol:
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I got the 2021/2022 yrs mixed up.
 
Thorn said:
It'll be a pleasant surprise if they are competitive against anyone but other bad teams.
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Being that we have a last place schedule coming up there will be a fair share of bad teams to play. Still, even with losing we will be able to tell if the team is moving in the right direction.
 
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Thorn said:
But next year they should suck less than this year. If they don't, then and only then will we know we are being fed the same old sh!t. This year's a wash, just be prepared for the lines in your forehead from all the facepalming. :lol:
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Next year we could have a whole new coaching staff and we spent this year assembling players for this years coaching staff. The Texans have a lot of round holes to fill and the Kirby boardroom has boxes of square pegs to use.
 
TxnsJuggernaut1 said:
Being that we have a last place schedule coming up there will be a fair share of bad teams to play. Still, even with losing we will be able to tell if the team is moving in the right direction.
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Need to take a look at our schedule and compare against a current power ranking, which is as good a means of looking at the season as any, this early.

We have 8 games against top 11 teams. We have 5 games against the middle 10 teams. And we have only 4 games against the bottom 11 teams.

Looked at another way, we play only 7 games against the bottom 16 teams. And 4 of those games are against the Titans and the Jaguars.

The strength of our schedule is why the Vegas odds are as they are.

As of now, I'm staying with my earlier prediction of 3 - 5 wins. But I'm also liking the makeup of this team, for a rebuild, and I don't think it unreasonable to hope for 6 -7 wins. We just don't know what to expect once this team breaks training camp.
 
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Texansballer74 said:
That’s the only way , custom made. I’m getting one with my name and number on it lol
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Yep. Custom made are the best. :thumbup

Years ago I went ahead and bought one with the stitched on letters (used a sale coupon that NFL Shop sends out in the off-season), and now I'll wear that thing for the rest of my life. I won't have to worry about a given player being here or dishonoring the team.

The only player's jersey I want is Earl's 34 in an Oilers jersey. I do have a JJ Watt military tribute jersey. Those things were too cool to pass up and I bought a used one on Ebay.
 
Number19 said:
Need to take a look at our schedule and compare against a current power ranking, which is as good a means of looking at the season as any, this early.

We have 8 games against top 11 teams. We have 5 games against the middle 10 teams. And we have only 4 games against the bottom 11 teams.

Looked at another way, we play only 7 games against the bottom 16 teams. And 4 of those games are against the Titans and the Jaguars.

The strength of our schedule is why the Vegas odds are as they are.

As of now, I'm staying with my earlier prediction of 3 - 5 wins. But I'm also liking the makeup of this team, for a rebuild, and I don't think it unreasonable to hope for 6 -7 wins. We just don't know what to expect once this team breaks training camp.
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Points well taken. However I do think as fans we will be able to determine if the team is showing some promise and appears to be heading in the right direction.
 
Double Barrel said:
Yep. Custom made are the best.

Years ago I went ahead and bought one with the stitched on letters (used a sale coupon that NFL Shop sends out in the off-season), and now I'll wear that thing for the rest of my life. I won't have to worry about a given player being here or dishonoring the team.

The only player's jersey I want is Earl's 34 in an Oilers jersey. I do have a JJ Watt military tribute jersey. Those things were too cool to pass up and I bought a used one on Ebay.
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The wife got me a Watson salute to service jersey for Christmas...wore it once lol. Oh well...

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
 
Number19 said:
Need to take a look at our schedule and compare against a current power ranking, which is as good a means of looking at the season as any, this early.

We have 8 games against top 11 teams. We have 5 games against the middle 10 teams. And we have only 4 games against the bottom 11 teams.

Looked at another way, we play only 7 games against the bottom 16 teams. And 4 of those games are against the Titans and the Jaguars.

The strength of our schedule is why the Vegas odds are as they are.

As of now, I'm staying with my earlier prediction of 3 - 5 wins. But I'm also liking the makeup of this team, for a rebuild, and I don't think it unreasonable to hope for 6 -7 wins. We just don't know what to expect once this team breaks training camp.
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Proper way to measure strength of schedule is using projected win totals for 2021 from Vegas.

Texans have the third most difficult schedule in the league:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1392674111718055937
 
When Caserio called the draft 'one of the more overhyped processes that's out there', this is what he meant...

Forget the 40-yard dash. How the Patriots incorporate analytics into their draft process
April 15 | Boston Herald
By ANDREW CALLAHAN | acallahan@bostonherald.com

Two weeks ago, Patriots owner Robert Kraft made headlines by revealing the front office has tweaked its scouting process after several years of lackluster drafting.

Within the same press conference, Kraft may have hinted at those changes by making two unprompted mentions of analytics in response to larger questions about team-building.

Ten days later, a former Patriots executive indirectly took Kraft’s peek behind the personnel curtain and ripped it open.

On April 8, Texans general manager Nick Caserio spoke on a virtual panel at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference exploring the future of NFL roster building. Caserio led the Pats’ personnel department from 2008-2020, so present employees aside, no one understands their front office better than him. While his old boss Bill Belichick might poo-poo analytics at every public opportunity, Caserio killed the notion once and for all the Patriots don’t incorporate advanced data into their decision-making.

“What we’ve learned,” he began, “is it’s in every facet of football operations to some degree.”

Specific to the draft, Caserio shared the Patriots recently developed a model to help them identify traits most common to successful NFL players at a particular position. The front office ran players through the model by entering data points that represented their performative and athletic characteristics. Among the team’s findings, Caserio said, was that widely held beliefs about height and arm length being vital to success were unfounded.
THE REST OF THE STORY
 
"The upcoming draft represents an opportunity to continue resetting and return to contention; the chance to prove the competitive edge they believe they’ve built inside their building still exists and will shine again." - from the link

In other words, they will be a run of the mill, average team, again..... until they find another Brady.

Last year was not an anomaly.

:coffee:
 
If I may, read the Entire Boston Herald article (you captured the meat) it’s not very specific but deals in generalization (like they would ever divulge critical draft data points specific to any one position).

IMO, you should narrow targeted traits down to five things you truly value as an organization. I/we have no more insight from this article than before, other than RAS metrics are chiseled down position specific.

What stands apart in this draft class, other than Mac Jones, Brady clone 2.0, is Patriot model is to just take best playmaker available on the field even if it means 2nd/3rd chances. This is where Caserio differ from Belicheat, and why he is a better fit in Houston.

Caserio is Texan worthy and values high character, work ethic players.
 
76Texan said:
"After several years of lackluster drafting".

That's what stood out to me.
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I don't think that "lackluster drafting" is in question. The question in my mind is why were they lackluster? Some here think/assign blame to Caserio.

Myself...I think it was a result of Belichicks heavy hand, being smarter than all his scouts and his front office. idonno:

Guess we will have to wait until Caserio has a full deck to play, then we can make an informed opinion.

I think he has done well so far with the resources he had at his disposal. Texans mantra..."wait".

:coffee:
 
cuppacoffee said:
I don't think that "lackluster drafting" is in question. The question in my mind is why were they lackluster? Some here think/assign blame to Caserio.

Myself...I think it was a result of Belichicks heavy hand, being smarter than all his scouts and his front office. idonno:

Guess we will have to wait until Caserio has a full deck to play, then we can make an informed opinion.

I think he has done well so far with the resources he had at his disposal. Texans mantra..."wait".

:coffee:
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It's way too early to judge NC's moves as a whole.

And also, I had stated before that "we don't know how involved and how much influence Caserio had while he was with the Pats".

The fact remains that they had had several meh drafts.
 
76Texan said:
It's way too early to judge NC's moves as a whole.

And also, I had stated before that "we don't know how involved and how much influence Caserio had while he was with the Pats".

The fact remains that they had had several meh drafts.
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I would think he had to have quite a bit of involvement and influence if they're blocking the Texans from getting him for 2 years.
 
Speedy said:
I would think he had to have quite a bit of involvement and influence if they're blocking the Texans from getting him for 2 years.
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It was thought that he had too much "Pats draft info" to let him leave for Houston when they blocked his move.
No one seems to know how much influence he had in the draft selections.

I'm looking forward to what Caserio has in mind for the team. I'm optimistic because it doesn't upset me as much as being pessimistic. :D

I think most of us are in agreement that he couldn't do much worse than what we have seen the last few years.
I liked his draft and I agree with signing enough free agents to allow for the release of the players that aren't cutting it.
I was hoping for a center a @67 but I understand drafting a QB there. An unsettled position to say the least.

I can't think of any player he has released that I disagree with. I liked Fuller, but he did miss a lot of snaps.

:coffee:
 
cuppacoffee said:
It was thought that he had too much "Pats draft info" to let him leave for Houston when they blocked his move.
No one seems to know how much influence he had in the draft selections.

I'm looking forward to what Caserio has in mind for the team. I'm optimistic because it doesn't upset me as much as being pessimistic. :D

I think most of us are in agreement that he couldn't do much worse than what we have seen the last few years.
I liked his draft and I agree with signing enough free agents to allow for the release of the players that aren't cutting it.
I was hoping for a center a @67 but I understand drafting a QB there. An unsettled position to say the least.

I can't think of any player he has released that I disagree with. I liked Fuller, but he did miss a lot of snaps.

:coffee:
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There were hardly any good players that didn't get overpaid, so the cuts were easy.

Keeping DJ, on the other hand, is not a good move.
 

This is an interesting breakdown, but the shocking part was this at the 2:55 mark:

"Per Aaron Reese, since 2018, eight quarterbacks have averaged under 6.5 yards per attempt with a completion rate under 60%.

Three of those quarterbacks are now on the Texans. Tyrod Taylor, Jeff Driscol, and Ryan Finley."

Not gonna' lie, it's this kind of thing that gives me no hope for any of the clowns on Kirby, including Caserio.

These are garbage quarterbacks.

The only way that I can possibly justify signing these guys is if this front office is deliberately tanking on purpose to get the 1.1 pick in 2022. And that type of mentality is its own set of problems.
 
Number19 said:
Need to take a look at our schedule and compare against a current power ranking, which is as good a means of looking at the season as any, this early.

We have 8 games against top 11 teams. We have 5 games against the middle 10 teams. And we have only 4 games against the bottom 11 teams.

Looked at another way, we play only 7 games against the bottom 16 teams. And 4 of those games are against the Titans and the Jaguars.

The strength of our schedule is why the Vegas odds are as they are.

As of now, I'm staying with my earlier prediction of 3 - 5 wins. But I'm also liking the makeup of this team, for a rebuild, and I don't think it unreasonable to hope for 6 -7 wins. We just don't know what to expect once this team breaks training camp.
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I don't know how many wins we will have. But the way the roster is being altered and we are getting FAs is a nice change of pace. Far from the norm around here also.
 
Double Barrel said:

This is an interesting breakdown, but the shocking part was this at the 2:55 mark:

"Per Aaron Reese, since 2018, eight quarterbacks have averaged under 6.5 yards per attempt with a completion rate under 60%.

Three of those quarterbacks are now on the Texans. Tyrod Taylor, Jeff Driscol, and Ryan Finley."

Not gonna' lie, it's this kind of thing that gives me no hope for any of the clowns on Kirby, including Caserio.

These are garbage quarterbacks.

The only way that I can possibly justify signing these guys is if this front office is deliberately tanking on purpose to get the 1.1 pick in 2022. And that type of mentality is its own set of problems.
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Not something you want long term, but a team can have sucess with a ball control, run heavy offense. Also, with young qb's, I'm thinking particularely of Finley , you need to look at the team around them and also the qb's starting opportunities. And finally, doesn't this make a sound argument in support of the Texans taking a chance on Mills with 67?
 
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