Yea OK so I can see your point of view there.
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NFL Random Thought of the Day
- Thread starter Wolf
- Start date
TexansBull
Hall of Fame
They think differently than you do. They think Matteson can replace Cook at a cheaper cost. Everytime Matteson has gotten a chance, he's looked good.
Agreed about 2022 being a mirage. I do think they're in for a fall this year. Their defense was terrible last year.
That is total yards rushed per game including all rushers (QB & all). I was too lazy to break it down further. Just looking at the list it seems at least half pocket passers. 5 SBs were won either by Brady or Manning/Osweiler combined.
I was looking at the current Texans WR depth and was thinking about the number of WRs and TEs who have been on the roster.
In 2020, Coutee (33 RECs, 400 YDS) and Hansen (17 RECS, 236 YDS) posted career years. Yet, three years after leaving the Texans, they have 2 RECS for 25 YDS combined!
Random thought. What happened to Keke Coutee and Chad Hansen? Those guys were good enough to make the Texans' roster and nowhere else.
In 2020, Coutee (33 RECs, 400 YDS) and Hansen (17 RECS, 236 YDS) posted career years. Yet, three years after leaving the Texans, they have 2 RECS for 25 YDS combined!
Random thought. What happened to Keke Coutee and Chad Hansen? Those guys were good enough to make the Texans' roster and nowhere else.
Exactly !
The rushing game is used in a supporting role , it is not the star, not the main attraction of offenses today in the NFL.
CloakNNNdagger
Hall of Fame
CloakNNNdagger
Hall of Fame
Coincidentally, Coutee is trying out with the Saints this week.(Hansen is in the XFL)
Speedy
Former Yeller Dweller
Shows you what the talent level on the Texans has been. A majority of starters on the Texans the last few years would be backups at best on other teams. Texans backups might not even make other teams rosters.
You'd never convince Rick Smith of that...
CloakNNNdagger
Hall of Fame
Although not reported, from what I have been able to discern, this injury is an ACL rupture. If confirmed, it will be the 1st ACL of the 2023 NFL League year.
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Report: Jets Fear Serious Knee Injury For Chuck Clark
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Report: Jets Fear Serious Knee Injury For Chuck Clark
CloakNNNdagger
Hall of Fame
Deandre Hopklins is scheduled to meet with the Patriots today AND tomorrow.
TheRealJoker
Hall of Fame
Unfortunate for Clark in a contract year. I wanted the Texans to make that trade earlier this offseason.
ArmyBengal
Retired Army Medical NCO
For what it's worth, all teams have players that make their rosters and probably wouldn't elsewhere.
Look at the Bengals o-line over the last few years. Total makeovers and those guys are out of the league.
To start, there are only so many All Pro level players in the league and even if a team had a glut of them, it wouldn't be for long because they won't be able to afford them. If that wasn't the case, you wouldn't see teams move on from players in order to work the salary cap. That old saying of, "You can't pay everyone" will always be true in the current make up of contracts under the CBA. I don't think it will ever change.
For example, when the Bengals pay Higgins and Chase, what are the odds they pay Tyler Boyd another high end contract? NEXT TO ZERO, despite him being a fan favorite and a very productive WR. When contracts come due after their rookie ones expire, it makes things harder on the teams. The Chase, Higgins and Burrow contracts are going to make things difficult on the Bengals regarding the remainder of the roster, so lower end guys at other positions are going to get opportunities just to manage the cap.
My two cents...
Look at the Bengals o-line over the last few years. Total makeovers and those guys are out of the league.
To start, there are only so many All Pro level players in the league and even if a team had a glut of them, it wouldn't be for long because they won't be able to afford them. If that wasn't the case, you wouldn't see teams move on from players in order to work the salary cap. That old saying of, "You can't pay everyone" will always be true in the current make up of contracts under the CBA. I don't think it will ever change.
For example, when the Bengals pay Higgins and Chase, what are the odds they pay Tyler Boyd another high end contract? NEXT TO ZERO, despite him being a fan favorite and a very productive WR. When contracts come due after their rookie ones expire, it makes things harder on the teams. The Chase, Higgins and Burrow contracts are going to make things difficult on the Bengals regarding the remainder of the roster, so lower end guys at other positions are going to get opportunities just to manage the cap.
My two cents...
ArmyBengal
Retired Army Medical NCO
I think this may be where stats don't necessarily tell the whole story, while finding myself agreeing with you.
Out of morbid curiosity and being bored, I looked at the worst teams in the NFL in each of the last 10 years.
2013 Texans- 108.9
2014 Bucs- 85.9
2015 Titans- 92.8
2016 Browns- 146.5
2017 Browns- 107.1
2018 Cardinals- 83.9
2019 Bengals- 94.8
2020 Jags- 94.9
2021 Jags- 103.2
2022 Bears- 177.3
Overall average yards per game was 109.5. So that's 4 yards per game less than the best teams in each season over the same time span. Clearly getting or nearly getting 100 yards per game didn't help these specific teams.
So what do I or any of you take away from that? My take?
I believe this is where you see the importance of who is the QB (or other star players to an extent) of those teams. That being my thought, led me to taking a look at who QB'd those loser teams in each of those seasons. (Yeah, that bored today)
Schaub 2310 yards
McCown 2206 yards
Mariota 2818 yards
Kessler 1380 yards
Kizer 2894 yards
Murray 3722 yards
Dalton 3494 yards
Minshew 2259 yards
Lawrence 3641 yards
Fields 2242 yards
With the exception of Fields (A running QB), Lawrence and Murray, none of those guys ever won a Championship as a starter and some never should have been starters. I'm not doing it, but I would be curious how many yards in each of those seasons, the Super Bowl winning QB threw for? I'm going to bet for a buttload more than the 2696 yards average per season of those I listed above.
QB's are important !!!
ArmyBengal
Retired Army Medical NCO
I guess I am going to do it.
The average of those Super Bowl winning QB's was nearly 4000 yards in each of those seasons.
So nearly 1300 yards per season difference from the losing teams.
Now that's a stat you can hang a hat on when making a comparison.
This is why if you don't have a franchise QB and have a high draft pick, you take your shot at getting one.
Geesh, I'm tired...
The average of those Super Bowl winning QB's was nearly 4000 yards in each of those seasons.
So nearly 1300 yards per season difference from the losing teams.
Now that's a stat you can hang a hat on when making a comparison.
This is why if you don't have a franchise QB and have a high draft pick, you take your shot at getting one.
Geesh, I'm tired...
I don't think anybody said a RB was as important as a QB. As far as I know they are not mutually exclusive. You can actually have both. All I'm saying is a solid running game is an important part of any championship team.
Football is truly a sport that takes a whole team to win a championship. Take Russell Wilson for example. The only 2 SBs (1-1) he has played in the Seahawks had one of the best defenses in NFL history.
Statistically speaking the team in the SB with the better defense wins more often
From 1970 - 2018
The team that allowed fewer points in the regular season is 31-16 (that doesn’t include Super Bowl 39, because the Eagles and Patriots each allowed exactly 260 points).
The team that allowed fewer yards in the regular season is 32-16.
Teams that finished in the bottom half of the NFL in scoring defense are 4-6 in the Super Bowl.
Teams that finished in the bottom half of the NFL in yards allowed are 6-11 in the Super Bowl.
Football is truly a sport that takes a whole team to win a championship. Take Russell Wilson for example. The only 2 SBs (1-1) he has played in the Seahawks had one of the best defenses in NFL history.
Statistically speaking the team in the SB with the better defense wins more often
From 1970 - 2018
The team that allowed fewer points in the regular season is 31-16 (that doesn’t include Super Bowl 39, because the Eagles and Patriots each allowed exactly 260 points).
The team that allowed fewer yards in the regular season is 32-16.
Teams that finished in the bottom half of the NFL in scoring defense are 4-6 in the Super Bowl.
Teams that finished in the bottom half of the NFL in yards allowed are 6-11 in the Super Bowl.
I appreciate your research, but still can’t get to that conclusion. There’s ample evidence that taking a shot in the 1st doesn’t work.
If you don’t have a franchise QB it’s time to be honest and look at your whole team.
There’s normally a team out there that just need a QB, that team that resigned Tannehill a few years ago, or the one that started Brisset also from our division.
I can see starting with QB if he’s truly special. But not “taking a shot” for most bad teams picking at the top of the draft.
What round does it statistically work best for?
QB, none. Most fail in the NFL.
Don’t get me wrong. I’m not saying don’t draft a QB. I’m saying make sure you’re drafting him for the right reason & don’t just “take a shot.”
Speedy
Former Yeller Dweller
And just what would constitute the right reason and not just taking a shot?
The Texans had statistically one of the worst QBs in football for the last 2 seasons, so that position is obviously a need. They had the #2 pick and even had the midget everyone was afraid of off the board. Seems like a pretty good reason to draft a QB to me.
I hope they drafted him because they believe he can be a franchise QB after doing their due diligence, & not hoping he can be.
"Taking a shot" sounds like throwing darts blindfolded.
You sure seem to get wrapped up in semantics a lot
ArmyBengal
Retired Army Medical NCO
By "Taking a shot" I would obviously mean the team has done due diligence and determined the player taken is worthy of such a high selection. Clearly we are not talking about blindly selecting a QB simply, well... "because"...
The other thought to consider and is often forgotten, is how things use to be prior to the rookie wage scale (RWS) being implemented. Prior to (RWS) implementation, taking players early was daunting for a team. In the last draft prior to the (RWS) 2010, Sam Bradford was the #1 overall pick. His rookie contract was for 6 years and $78 million, with $50 million guaranteed. The next year, Cam Newton was the #1 overall pick. His rookie contract was for 4 years and 22 million, all guaranteed. The impact of that implementation has been massive for the league. Rookies have to perform to get paid, veteran players started getting more money on contracts and the owners saw a windfall of cash their way.
Something missed however, is that taking a QB that high no longer hamstrung the organization should that player bomb. Now, teams can move on from players they no longer feel meet the lofty expectations of any high selection. Take the Cardinals as an example. They take Josh Rosen #10 overall and paid him $17.5 million. A new coach comes on board, doesn't want to work with Rosen and the next year they take Kyler Murray #1 overall and paid him nearly $36 million in the process. While it can argued about whether Murray is a long term answer in Arizona, that move certainly worked out for the Cardinals as Josh Rosen is on par with a flaming dumpster.
So, yes, teams need to "Take a shot" at getting a potential franchise QB when the opportunity presents itself.
That's not to say teams can't find that guy later, but I think the odds lessen as you go.
No one in the league last year, including the 49er's thought much of Brock Purdy to take him before the last pick of the draft.
He's an outlier, not the norm.
The other thought to consider and is often forgotten, is how things use to be prior to the rookie wage scale (RWS) being implemented. Prior to (RWS) implementation, taking players early was daunting for a team. In the last draft prior to the (RWS) 2010, Sam Bradford was the #1 overall pick. His rookie contract was for 6 years and $78 million, with $50 million guaranteed. The next year, Cam Newton was the #1 overall pick. His rookie contract was for 4 years and 22 million, all guaranteed. The impact of that implementation has been massive for the league. Rookies have to perform to get paid, veteran players started getting more money on contracts and the owners saw a windfall of cash their way.
Something missed however, is that taking a QB that high no longer hamstrung the organization should that player bomb. Now, teams can move on from players they no longer feel meet the lofty expectations of any high selection. Take the Cardinals as an example. They take Josh Rosen #10 overall and paid him $17.5 million. A new coach comes on board, doesn't want to work with Rosen and the next year they take Kyler Murray #1 overall and paid him nearly $36 million in the process. While it can argued about whether Murray is a long term answer in Arizona, that move certainly worked out for the Cardinals as Josh Rosen is on par with a flaming dumpster.
So, yes, teams need to "Take a shot" at getting a potential franchise QB when the opportunity presents itself.
That's not to say teams can't find that guy later, but I think the odds lessen as you go.
No one in the league last year, including the 49er's thought much of Brock Purdy to take him before the last pick of the draft.
He's an outlier, not the norm.
Dejaview
Wahoo Sabi
Yep. I always thought taking a QB in the late rounds was taking a shot because due dilligence moved them to later rounds. But now I’ve learned in this thread that drafting a QB in any round is taking a shot since most fail, but I think desperation can inspire the best due diligence in the earlier rounds.
I guess burning bridges isn't working out very well for this piece of Clemson trash.
In my defense, I simply responded to a post promoting "taking a shot"
How would you you define "taking a shot" in the 1st round?
To me if you did your due diligence & feel it's prudent to draft him in the 1st round, that's not "taking a shot" so it must be something else.
If you draft a mediocre QB, or an agent that only cares about getting his clients the most money possible, your franchise will be stuck in mediocrity. It's better to draft a great QB or a bad QB. Drafting a mediocre QB is the worst thing a franchise can do.
Dejaview
Wahoo Sabi
Kinda crazy series of posts here. In every single case whether or not a shot was taken depends on the performance of the QB taken after the fact. These draft rooms are filled with professionals backed by large scouting departments. Everybody does due diligence but no outcome is honed in stone. Nobody can predict luck, how the chips fall, etc. If the chips fall where you can’t draft one of your three highest ranked QB’s but are forced to take your next highest ranked who turns out to be the best QB in the draft while your highest ranked didn’t measure up did you take a shot? You did your due diligence and the one you wanted was drafted before your pick. They did their due diligence too. So if you did your due D and took your fourth rated QB in the first round that can’t be taking a shot according to some. But others would call it desperate and “taking a shot”. Neither case, however, can be judged before the season. So in the end I believe that after a season or so you took a shot on the QB that failed but got lucky on the good one. Means nothing to worry about it before hand.
OptimisticTexan
2024 / Rebuilding Block 4 After Playoffs / Texans
I’d have to say Mahomes’ agent did a pretty solid job in getting him the keys to the Chiefs Brinks truck.
CloakNNNdagger
Hall of Fame
Colts rookie safety Daniel Scott has been placed on IR yesterday with ruptured ACL sustained on the final play of OTAs last week ahead of the team’s mandatory minicamp........................ACL #1.
CloakNNNdagger
Hall of Fame
Scott was a guy I thought could help the Colts. Not in 2023, apparently.
Who cares what the Jets want? We want the Jets.
CloakNNNdagger
Hall of Fame
And the way the contract was structured their championship window will stay open longer.
Bad news. Mahomes takes up 18.1 % of the salary cap this season.
Certainly not good news. But if anyone can beat the odds it's Mahomes.
He already has. Mahomes accounted for 17% of the cap last year.
The Pencil Neck
Hall of Fame
I'm on TKs side on this. There was a whole thing, that I was in the middle of, prior to the draft about the terminology of "taking a shot."
To me, that phrase implies that due diligence isn't being followed because "taking a shot" means that excessive risk is being taken. I was not behind the Texans "taking a shot" and drafting a QB just because we had a need at QB. If they thought that any of these QBs were going to be a franchise guy, then they should do whatever reasonable things they could do to acquire him. But I did not want them "taking a shot" on a QB.
I think the Cardinals are a great example. They took a shot on Rosen and then they turned around and took a shot on Murray (a guy a lot of people had reservations about.) Although Murray had some initial success, there's every chance that the Cards ended up squandering two first rounders.
And this brings up a very good point that SteelB brought up during those discussions. If you "take a shot" and the guy you take ends up being a Josh Rosen, you're lucky because you realize right away you made a mistake and you can move on from it. But if you "take a shot" on a guy like Murray or a Baker Mayfield, and he initially shows promise and potential and looks like he might develop into the guy, that's even worse because now you're going to sorely tempted to throw good money after bad trying to build him into something special.
BUT.
I think we're basically all on the same page here. There's just a semantic difference of perception on the phrase "taking a shot."
I had reservations about any QB in this draft being worth a 1st round pick, but the Texans didn't, so I'm all in on Stroud at this point.
Just some useless but interesting (at least to me) stats.
Per Over the Cap here are the top 10 teams cap hits on offense & defense
Defense
Chargers - $127,192,900
Bills - $123,295,846
Seahawks - $120,940,852
Steelers - $118,056,467
49ers - $115,106,953
Giants - $114,553,004
Dolphins - $112,815,967
Commanders - $111,658,881
Bengals - $111,363,835
Jets - $109,552,063
Offense
Browns - $151,202,442
Raiders - $137,484,332
Chiefs - $136,526,003
Broncos - $131,824,770
Jaguars - $131,043,392
Lions - $129,994,961
Ravens - $127,816,503
Bengals - $125,841,197
Falcons - $120,209,790
Bills - $120,044,350
The Bills & the Bengals are the only teams on both lists.
Per Over the Cap here are the top 10 teams cap hits on offense & defense
Defense
Chargers - $127,192,900
Bills - $123,295,846
Seahawks - $120,940,852
Steelers - $118,056,467
49ers - $115,106,953
Giants - $114,553,004
Dolphins - $112,815,967
Commanders - $111,658,881
Bengals - $111,363,835
Jets - $109,552,063
Offense
Browns - $151,202,442
Raiders - $137,484,332
Chiefs - $136,526,003
Broncos - $131,824,770
Jaguars - $131,043,392
Lions - $129,994,961
Ravens - $127,816,503
Bengals - $125,841,197
Falcons - $120,209,790
Bills - $120,044,350
The Bills & the Bengals are the only teams on both lists.
ArmyBengal
Retired Army Medical NCO
Jesus people. Taking a shot can mean blindly throwing darts at a board, to whatever the heck the person using it intends.
I explained what I meant by that phrase in an earlier post. If you want to twist that to meaning something other than what I intended to fit your narrative, then be my guess.
Let me be direct...
The Texans sucked last year. Largely in part to their horrible QB.
They had the 2nd pick in the draft, while simultaneously having QB as a need.
In that position, you "Take a shot" with whatever QB the team has done due diligence on and feels is the "Best shot".
Take a shot, best shot, whatever other shot you want to apply. From the perspective of that phrase meaning taking a chance, well then that's exactly what the entire draft is, for every team. Every pick, in every round is nothing more than taking a shot, while understanding that player might bust.
Are you guys always this hung up with the intended definitions or words used? This really wasn't that hard to figure out.
If someone would like to disagree with the importance of having a potential franchise QB and where you might find that player, by all means, but to argue about that concept simply because use of other words seems pretty pointless to me.
I explained what I meant by that phrase in an earlier post. If you want to twist that to meaning something other than what I intended to fit your narrative, then be my guess.
Let me be direct...
The Texans sucked last year. Largely in part to their horrible QB.
They had the 2nd pick in the draft, while simultaneously having QB as a need.
In that position, you "Take a shot" with whatever QB the team has done due diligence on and feels is the "Best shot".
Take a shot, best shot, whatever other shot you want to apply. From the perspective of that phrase meaning taking a chance, well then that's exactly what the entire draft is, for every team. Every pick, in every round is nothing more than taking a shot, while understanding that player might bust.
Are you guys always this hung up with the intended definitions or words used? This really wasn't that hard to figure out.
If someone would like to disagree with the importance of having a potential franchise QB and where you might find that player, by all means, but to argue about that concept simply because use of other words seems pretty pointless to me.
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CloakNNNdagger
Hall of Fame
Fool me once, shame on you...........Fool me 23 times, shame on you............ 
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Antonio Brown’s arena team in Albany gets kicked out of its league
Posted by Mike Florio on June 15, 2023, 1:40 PM EDT
Sports teams take on the personality of their owner. Well, at least one does.
The National Arena League has kicked out the Albany Empire, owned by former NFL receiver Antonio Brown.
https://link.healthinsightjournal.com/c5d58116-f8f7-4371-99b7-8d8f137e6d51
“After exhausting all avenues, the NAL board of owners have decided unanimously to terminate the membership agreement of the Albany Empire,” the league said in a statement. “The decision was reached after an emergency conference call of the members in good standing to discuss the Empire’s failure to pay their league mandated and overdue assessments. Each team is responsible to pay for 1/7 of the league’s operating budget via monthly assessments starting in April. The Empire’s owner, Antonio Brown, was also fined $1,000 for Conduct Detrimental to the League for his recent public comments. Mr. Brown refused to pay that fine.”
The team was given until noon ET on Thursday to make its required payment. It failed to do so, and the team was removed from the league.
Last night, Brown gave a rambling, shirtless press conference during which he wondered whether A.B. would pay A.B. $1 million to play. How have the negotiations been going?
“I’ve been trying to talk to him, and the guy’s got like three different personalities,” Brown said, regarding A.B.
That pretty much says it all.
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Antonio Brown’s arena team in Albany gets kicked out of its league
Posted by Mike Florio on June 15, 2023, 1:40 PM EDT
Sports teams take on the personality of their owner. Well, at least one does.
The National Arena League has kicked out the Albany Empire, owned by former NFL receiver Antonio Brown.
https://link.healthinsightjournal.com/c5d58116-f8f7-4371-99b7-8d8f137e6d51
“After exhausting all avenues, the NAL board of owners have decided unanimously to terminate the membership agreement of the Albany Empire,” the league said in a statement. “The decision was reached after an emergency conference call of the members in good standing to discuss the Empire’s failure to pay their league mandated and overdue assessments. Each team is responsible to pay for 1/7 of the league’s operating budget via monthly assessments starting in April. The Empire’s owner, Antonio Brown, was also fined $1,000 for Conduct Detrimental to the League for his recent public comments. Mr. Brown refused to pay that fine.”
The team was given until noon ET on Thursday to make its required payment. It failed to do so, and the team was removed from the league.
Last night, Brown gave a rambling, shirtless press conference during which he wondered whether A.B. would pay A.B. $1 million to play. How have the negotiations been going?
“I’ve been trying to talk to him, and the guy’s got like three different personalities,” Brown said, regarding A.B.
That pretty much says it all.
What?! What's next, the Ravens wearing their old Browns away unis when they travel to Cleveland?
Difference is the Browns own the right to their history and likeness, unlike the Texans to their Houston football history, etc..
CloakNNNdagger
Hall of Fame
Negotiations and legal battles led to an agreement where Modell was allowed to move the team, but Cleveland kept the Browns' name, colors and history.
Yes and that was another Adams family FU to the city of Houston. His daughter is just exacerbating the issue to remind Houston
Absolutely. We should only sign players whose agents consistently refuse to get his clients the most money possible.