I think for Lawrence and Tua they got a bit overhyped winning the national championship as freshmen starters on stacked super teams. Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck are still the standard as top QB prototype prospects out of college despite not having the win/loss record of Lawrence and Tua.
Heck check out Mahomes’ record as a starter at Texas Tech… would Tua/Lawrence done better than Mahomes on those Tech teams?
The Chiefs also had the luxury of sitting Mahomes for a year. The Jags, Dolphins, and even the Colts with Luck and Manning, didn't have that luxury. Maybe the Dolphins could have with Fitz there. I don't know if that makes a difference or not. Mahomes seems to have benefitted from it. Manning struggled early on. Luck did too for that matter, 23/18 TD/INT, 76.5 passer rating his 1st year. But then you've got Herbert doing what he did last year.
Then you've got great college QBs whose games never translate in the NFL (see Tebow). Will Lawrence's game translate? Who knows? There's been plenty of 1st round picks where it hasn't (Rosen, Trubisky, Mariota, Manziel, Bortles, Locker, Gabbert, etc.)
Lawrence does have a nice collection of receivers in Chark, Jones and Shenault. Despite losing Etienne, Robinson should still give them a decent run game. Some good nasties up front with Cam, Taylor and Norwell. I think it's set up pretty well for him to succeed. I mean, as well as could be expected for a team that was 1-15 last year.