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Is it time to discuss OB the GM yet?

Uncle Rico said:
I think Bob the Builder is getting alot of credit for what Brian Gaine started. Hell Gaine got fired for not trading up for Dillard and taking the "project" Howard and how's that looking? YOu know who's got pie in the face on that one?? This guy over here. I take an "L" on that one, and can have the objectivity to look back and say that Gaine did a decent job and he probably shouldnt have been fired.

Tunsil, Hyde, Johnson, Stills as nice as they have integrated were born out of sheer necessity. O'Brien found a willing partner and paid out the ass for what he deemed was a worthwhile pick. Lets also not forget about the busts and doghouse players. Lets not bow to our master because I could argue he could have kept Rankin and signed Hyde as a street free agent, and why would you give up a 3rd rounder for Duke Johnson when he too was on the way out? I could say that dang near any viable free agent option at RB would have been successful due to the talent injection on the line and the magical QB play.

Reports were that Conley was traded to the highest bidder, could he have been had for a fourth? Include some current talent to sweeten without giving up a much more valuable 3rd? We'll never know.

All in all it has been a successful excursion into the managerial ranks for Mr O'Brien because I judge on wins and losses. As long as this team wins, guys like me really cant beat that drum, but we can be quick to remind everyone when it goes South. Im still in the camp where its not a good idea to give one person that much control, especially on a professional football team, but if we make it to the Super Bowl I'd be willing to change my mind.
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You have no idea how to make any observations at all. You were just bashing him relentlessly just a few weeks ago. They have the same record as they did last season at this time. You're a prisoner of the moment in how you see the moment no matter how radical of a change it is. You can't sit here and give him a good grade after you just stopped crying about the Clowney trade like 5 days ago, and made it seem like OB shouldn't even be working in the NFL.
 
I was bored and my research background couldnt help itself:

3rd Round Rookie CBs to start games in the NFL over the last 5 seasons

1) SF/Ahkello Witherspoon - started 9 games as a rookie
2) SEA/Shaquille Griffen - started 11 games as a rookie
3) MIA/Cordrea Tankersly - started 11 games as a rookie
4) CAR/DAryl Worley - started 11 games as a rookie
5) WAS/Kendall Fuller- started 6 games as a rookie
6) ARI/Brandon Williams - started 3 games as a rookie
7) NO/PJ Williams - started 2 games as a rookie
8) SD/Craig Mager- started 2 games as a rookie
9) KC/Philip Gaines - started 5 games as a rookie

Im fairly certain the parameters will switch to "but which one of those guys were any good" or "you had to go back 5 years HAH" or any number of goalpost movers. We can modify any number of variants to see that plenty of 3rd round draftees get a shot at starting games. Its not a big deal at all.
 
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Mr.Scarface said:
You wanted Watson to get killed with Kahlil at Tackle? We would have been in trouble at RB, Injuries with have left the Texans with no depth a CB. Plus, Still added much needed depth a WR.
You cannot wait if you have needs now.
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You obviously misunderstood my post as your comments agree. I said the players that Obrien traded 2020 draft picks should not be judged until after this season. I have consistently posted I am good with deal for Tunsil. Also my post says we cannot judge the remaining 2020 picks until we know what we have. Perhaps you could read KDog post I replied to?
 
Texecutioner said:
You have no idea how to make any observations at all. You were just bashing him relentlessly just a few weeks ago. They have the same record as they did last season at this time. You're a prisoner of the moment in how you see the moment no matter how radical of a change it is. You can't sit here and give him a good grade after you just stopped crying about the Clowney trade like 5 days ago, and made it seem like OB shouldn't even be working in the NFL.
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LMAOOOO Really? Please PLEASE educate me on how to "make observations" you above anyone else in here should probably be quiet for a little while before I drag you around with your own words.

The Clowney Deal was A HORRIBLE TRADE. You're right. O'Brien only has a job HERE because of Deshaun Watson. Otherwise he would have been shtcanned 3 years ago.

If you werent blinded by your subjectivity you would actually see that I've given the man his props when he's deserved them, problem is he doesnt deserve it too often, and you only pop up to talk sht and bait arguments.

Do you though - I wouldnt expect anything less.
 
Uncle Rico said:
I was bored and my research background couldnt help itself:

3rd Round Rookie CBs to start games in the NFL over the last 5 seasons

1) SF/Ahkello Witherspoon - started 9 games as a rookie
2) SEA/Shaquille Griffen - started 11 games as a rookie
3) MIA/Cordrea Tankersly - started 11 games as a rookie
4) CAR/DAryl Worley - started 11 games as a rookie
5) WAS/Kendall Fuller- started 6 games as a rookie
6) ARI/Brandon Williams - started 3 games as a rookie
7) NO/PJ Williams - started 2 games as a rookie
8) SD/Craig Mager- started 2 games as a rookie
9) KC/Philip Gaines - started 5 games as a rookie

Im fairly certain the parameters will switch to "but which one of those guys were any good" or "you had to go back 5 years HAH" or any number of goalpost movers. We can modify any number of variants to see that plenty of 3rd round draftees get a shot at starting games. Its not a big deal at all.
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32 picks in a round.

5 years worth of data.

160 total picks.

Only 9 started a game in their rookie season.

That’s only 6%.

4 out of the 9 started games for more than half the season.

So 3% of 3rd round picks are expected to start more than half the season, and 6% start a game in the season.

I am scratching my head on this one if I did the math right.

It’s not moving the goal posts. It’s a wrong assumption.
 
TexansBull said:
32 picks in a round.

5 years worth of data.

160 total picks.

Only 9 started a game in their rookie season.

That’s only 6%.

4 out of the 9 started games for more than half the season.

So 3% of 3rd round picks are expected to start more than half the season, and 6% start a game in the season.

I am scratching my head on this one if I did the math right.

It’s not moving the goal posts. It’s a wrong assumption.
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there it is. LOL.

the point at hand was whether a 3rd round rookie CB has/can start an NFL game. Whether or not its a common occurence or whether or not the player is successful wasnt the arguing point. There were still a bunch of 3rd round CBs that BUSTED who didnt even make the list.

Since the first analysis provided that showed how many CFAs or 3rd Round+ CB starters there are in the league was shot down due to "hey i meant to say how many of them started their rookie years" here it is.

I mean any sensible person should know its not a common occurrence, the same logic should lead you NOT to make claims like its rare, or never happens. Imagine if we stretch out the sample size past 5 years? Those infinitesimal averages you came up with (which are right by the way) could GROW or could SHRINK. I just dont have THAT MUCH patience for this type of work without being paid for it.
 
Uncle Rico said:
there it is. LOL.

the point at hand was whether a 3rd round rookie CB has/can start an NFL game. Whether or not its a common occurence or whether or not the player is successful wasnt the arguing point. There were still a bunch of 3rd round CBs that BUSTED who didnt even make the list.

Since the first analysis provided that showed how many CFAs or 3rd Round+ CB starters there are in the league was shot down due to "hey i meant to say how many of them started their rookie years" here it is.

I mean any sensible person should know its not a common occurrence, the same logic should lead you NOT to make claims like its rare, or never happens. Imagine if we stretch out the sample size past 5 years? Those infinitesimal averages you came up with (which are right by the way) could GROW or could SHRINK. I just dont have THAT MUCH patience for this type of work without being paid for it.
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I got dizzy from your spin.
 
Uncle Rico said:
I was bored and my research background couldnt help itself:

3rd Round Rookie CBs to start games in the NFL over the last 5 seasons

1) SF/Ahkello Witherspoon - started 9 games as a rookie
2) SEA/Shaquille Griffen - started 11 games as a rookie
3) MIA/Cordrea Tankersly - started 11 games as a rookie
4) CAR/DAryl Worley - started 11 games as a rookie
5) WAS/Kendall Fuller- started 6 games as a rookie
6) ARI/Brandon Williams - started 3 games as a rookie
7) NO/PJ Williams - started 2 games as a rookie
8) SD/Craig Mager- started 2 games as a rookie
9) KC/Philip Gaines - started 5 games as a rookie

Im fairly certain the parameters will switch to "but which one of those guys were any good" or "you had to go back 5 years HAH" or any number of goalpost movers. We can modify any number of variants to see that plenty of 3rd round draftees get a shot at starting games. Its not a big deal at all.
Click to expand...

All of the things you said means you were skewing the discussion.

Again, how many 3rd Rd guys can come on midseason and help your team right away? At a position of need like Conley has done.

I thought you had me on ignore
 
Starter means they were on the field for the 1st defensive play - including a lot of nickle or dime packages.

Is that part of the conversation? Is that understood or are we just compiling stats blindly for arguments sake? Are we counting #4 CBS as starters because of it?

And are other factors being counted as well like suspensions or injuries for actual starters ( the #1 and #2 cbs?)

I dont mean to move the goal posts ,but stats can often be manipulated to say what you want them to.
 
Uncle Rico said:
I was bored and my research background couldnt help itself:

3rd Round Rookie CBs to start games in the NFL over the last 5 seasons

1) SF/Ahkello Witherspoon - started 9 games as a rookie
2) SEA/Shaquille Griffen - started 11 games as a rookie
3) MIA/Cordrea Tankersly - started 11 games as a rookie
4) CAR/DAryl Worley - started 11 games as a rookie
5) WAS/Kendall Fuller- started 6 games as a rookie
6) ARI/Brandon Williams - started 3 games as a rookie
7) NO/PJ Williams - started 2 games as a rookie
8) SD/Craig Mager- started 2 games as a rookie
9) KC/Philip Gaines - started 5 games as a rookie

Im fairly certain the parameters will switch to "but which one of those guys were any good" or "you had to go back 5 years HAH" or any number of goalpost movers. We can modify any number of variants to see that plenty of 3rd round draftees get a shot at starting games. Its not a big deal at all.
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Rico, thanks for doing the work, I was too lazy and appreciate the data. It basically does tell me Conley for a third was probably wise as it had higher chance of success, but we could of used the pick and hit, just lower chance from my point of view.

We are seeing a new way for us to build a roster and taking some getting used to. I was used to three ways:
- Largely through the draft, and fill in with FA when close
- Super aggressive in free agency
- Super aggressive during the draft

Trading picks during the year for young vets you have a read on is different and can only be done if you have the cap space to keep some of these guys and deal with the hit of fewer guys on rookie deals. I like what was done this year, but still until the cap changes, think this was a bit more of a one time thing as the bills come due. I keep hoping DW4 gives us a bit of a discount to pay the others unless QB is outside the cap in future CBA which all I can find is talking heads, noone who matters so not counting on that
 
Uncle Rico said:
I was bored and my research background couldnt help itself:

3rd Round Rookie CBs to start games in the NFL over the last 5 seasons

1) SF/Ahkello Witherspoon - started 9 games as a rookie
2) SEA/Shaquille Griffen - started 11 games as a rookie
3) MIA/Cordrea Tankersly - started 11 games as a rookie
4) CAR/DAryl Worley - started 11 games as a rookie
5) WAS/Kendall Fuller- started 6 games as a rookie
6) ARI/Brandon Williams - started 3 games as a rookie
7) NO/PJ Williams - started 2 games as a rookie
8) SD/Craig Mager- started 2 games as a rookie
9) KC/Philip Gaines - started 5 games as a rookie

Im fairly certain the parameters will switch to "but which one of those guys were any good" or "you had to go back 5 years HAH" or any number of goalpost movers. We can modify any number of variants to see that plenty of 3rd round draftees get a shot at starting games. Its not a big deal at all.
Click to expand...


Lol you have a lot of time on your hands. It's not farfetched at all.
 
Uncle Rico said:
LMAOOOO Really? Please PLEASE educate me on how to "make observations" you above anyone else in here should probably be quiet for a little while before I drag you around with your own words.

The Clowney Deal was A HORRIBLE TRADE. You're right. O'Brien only has a job HERE because of Deshaun Watson. Otherwise he would have been shtcanned 3 years ago.
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Your post said nothing.

Drag me by my words? Go for it. Lets see what you got, but you will embarrass yourself by trying.

I'm no more of a fan of OB than I was before the season started. I stick by every word I said before the season and now. Come on and go get my posts out. If you're going to make threats, then make it happen.

Uncle Rico said:
If you werent blinded by your subjectivity you would actually see that I've given the man his props when he's deserved them, problem is he doesnt deserve it too often, and you only pop up to talk sht and bait arguments.
Click to expand...

Outside of that, you just squeal at whatever extreme happens from game to game annoying the majority of this board with over sensationalized drama.
 
Rich Schmidt said:
Rico, thanks for doing the work, I was too lazy and appreciate the data. It basically does tell me Conley for a third was probably wise as it had higher chance of success, but we could of used the pick and hit, just lower chance from my point of view.

We are seeing a new way for us to build a roster and taking some getting used to. I was used to three ways:
- Largely through the draft, and fill in with FA when close
- Super aggressive in free agency
- Super aggressive during the draft

Trading picks during the year for young vets you have a read on is different and can only be done if you have the cap space to keep some of these guys and deal with the hit of fewer guys on rookie deals. I like what was done this year, but still until the cap changes, think this was a bit more of a one time thing as the bills come due. I keep hoping DW4 gives us a bit of a discount to pay the others unless QB is outside the cap in future CBA which all I can find is talking heads, noone who matters so not counting on that
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Yep, some people dont like change.

The cap is rumored to be going up 20 mil after the next CBA.
 
Texecutioner said:
Your post said nothing.

Drag me by my words? Go for it. Lets see what you got, but you will embarrass yourself by trying.

I'm no more of a fan of OB than I was before the season started. I stick by every word I said before the season and now. Come on and go get my posts out. If you're going to make threats, then make it happen.



Outside of that, you just squeal at whatever extreme happens from game to game annoying the majority of this board with over sensationalized drama.
Click to expand...


Conflict on a message board is typically not productive. Bring it down a bit. Let's have a solid back and forth instead of a tit for tat. It's good for posters and readers alike.


Thanks
 
Texecutioner said:
Your post said nothing.

Drag me by my words? Go for it. Lets see what you got, but you will embarrass yourself by trying.

I'm no more of a fan of OB than I was before the season started. I stick by every word I said before the season and now. Come on and go get my posts out. If you're going to make threats, then make it happen.



Outside of that, you just squeal at whatever extreme happens from game to game annoying the majority of this board with over sensationalized drama.
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True,

BTW, having an opinion on a poster calling out other posters BS isn't attacking the poster.
 
well we dont have a 1st round pick till like 2024 right LOL ?????

anywho I think Billy is doing a fine job ….like is def easier when you got a franchise QB and u just have to build around him
 
Uncle Rico said:
Gareon Conley cost this team a 3rd round pick. Marcus Peters (2x Pro Bowl, 2x All Pro, Rookie DPOY) was attained for a 5th round pick. Chew on that for a little while when you want to crown O'Brien.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1196814890352009216
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Who is crowning OB?

Sorry, but you got a crazy idea that people are a fan of OB when 100% of people say they won’t miss him when he is gone.
 
Uncle Rico said:
Gareon Conley cost this team a 3rd round pick. Marcus Peters (2x Pro Bowl, 2x All Pro, Rookie DPOY) was attained for a 5th round pick. Chew on that for a little while when you want to crown O'Brien.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1196814890352009216
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Bad example. Had Watson thrown the ball better Hopkins could have caught it. Watson should have thrown it closer to being out of bounds to place the CB on the outside where he can’t make a play on the ball. It looks like it could have been intercepted had the CB done a better job.

That play is on Watson.
 
Uncle Rico said:
Gareon Conley cost this team a 3rd round pick. Marcus Peters (2x Pro Bowl, 2x All Pro, Rookie DPOY) was attained for a 5th round pick. Chew on that for a little while when you want to crown O'Brien.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1196814890352009216
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Well, for one, he is a Free Agent after the season. So, you would have pay big money to re-sign him. Conley is under contract for 2 more years AFTER this season.
 
thunderkyss said:
If you don't mind, can you name the posters who want to crown O'Brien?
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Im not gonna do that .. know why? Because as much as I disagree fundamentally about the team with all of the dudes on my block list and the guys more specifically who have attached themselves to OBrien I still respect them as people and do have nothing but good will and energy for them and I know that at the end we all just want to win and what is best for the team - what good will pointing the finger at anyone really do? Its the reason why I just started to block people, not really in some selfish "leave me alone" tantrum; because I love a good debate; but because the board as a whole shouldnt have to sift through pages of personal detritus and dick measuring, its a revolving door of counter productivity. You have eyes bro. Its really not that hard to see. I make the mistake of 'showing ignored content' from time to time to catch up on the context that im missing and BAM right back down the rabbit hole! LOL

What I will do is fact check the intentional derailment of threads and topics by bogus claims, subjectively convenient stats, and make sure everyone is on the level.
 
Mr.Scarface said:
Well, for one, he is a Free Agent after the season. So, you would have pay big money to re-sign him. Conley is under contract for 2 more years AFTER this season.
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we have the cap space. you wouldnt pony up for an All Pro level CB .. you know the kind that we DESPERATELY need right now?
 
Uncle Rico said:
Im not gonna do that .. know why? Because as much as I disagree fundamentally about the team with all of the dudes on my block list and the guys more specifically who have attached themselves to OBrien I still respect them as people and do have nothing but good will and energy for them and I know that at the end we all just want to win and what is best for the team - what good will pointing the finger at anyone really do? Its the reason why I just started to block people, not really in some selfish "leave me alone" tantrum; because I love a good debate; but because the board as a whole shouldnt have to sift through pages of personal detritus and dick measuring, its a revolving door of counter productivity. You have eyes bro. Its really not that hard to see. I make the mistake of 'showing ignored content' from time to time to catch up on the context that im missing and BAM right back down the rabbit hole! LOL

What I will do is fact check the intentional derailment of threads and topics by bogus claims, subjectively convenient stats, and make sure everyone is on the level.
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Hey, TK you made the list.

You should be honored. LOL
 
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