1. Franchise Jadeveon Clowney. The Texans don’t want to lose Clowney, nor should they. The 2014 No. 1 overall pick has made it to three consecutive Pro Bowls and just turned 26. He has completed only one full 16-game season as a pro, but the microfracture surgery on his right knee that cost the South Carolina product most of his rookie season hasn’t been a problem since. Clowney has missed six games over the past four seasons, undergoing two subsequent arthroscopic surgeries on his other knee.
At the same time, the 6-foot-5, 255-pound Clowney hasn’t yet put together the sort of massive season that seems natural for a defender who looks as dominant on the football field as he is. Fifty different defenders have racked up at least one double-digit sack campaign since the beginning of the 2014 season, but Clowney isn’t one of them.
He has come close in each of the past two seasons, hitting 9.5 sacks in 2017 and getting to nine last season. But on his game, he looks like the sort of defender who should be annually flirting with Defensive Player of the Year honors. His knockdown totals don’t suggest a player who has been trading in bad luck, either. Using the 45 percent rule, Clowney’s 67 knockdowns over the past four seasons imply he should have racked up about 30 sacks over that time frame. He has recorded 29.
I’m not saying this to disparage Clowney. I would hardly be surprised if he put together a 15-sack season in 2019. Nobody would be. I bring this up to illustrate how difficult his contract negotiations might be. Edge rushers are paid to rack up sacks, and Clowney’s 29 sacks rank 27th over the past four seasons. The Texans might very well point to his production as closer to good than great and suggest he’s worth something below the five-year, $72 million extension that Danielle Hunter signed last year. (Hunter, for what it’s worth, has 40 sacks over those four years.)
On the open market, though, Clowney would get to negotiate with 31 teams. At least one of those teams would be willing to take the plunge and pay him on his potential, expecting him to put up those 15-sack seasons his tape hints toward. On the open market, Clowney might get something closer to a five-year, $100 million deal with $60 million in guarantees, which would top every other edge rusher contract in the NFL short of Khalil Mack. You can bet Clowney’s representation knows this. The Texans have to negotiate against that possibility. Going year to year with Clowney with franchise tags would cost the Texans around $68 million over the next three years, so there’s no savings there, either.
The Texans will start with a franchise tag north of $17 million in 2019 and go from there. I think they’ll eventually come to terms on an extension, if only because a long-term deal makes sense for both sides. This is going to be a more difficult negotiation than most other franchise tag extensions.
2. Re-sign Tyrann Mathieu. Mathieu’s one-year, $7 million deal was a victory for both sides, as Mathieu stayed healthy and produced his best season since his All-Pro campaign in 2015. He was a consistent producer in a Texans secondary that struggled for steady play at cornerback last season, and while his 2015 performance might loom as an outlier, Mathieu’s range and instincts make him a valuable free safety.
The 26-year-old Mathieu has suggested he wants to return to the Texans, and a new deal makes sense for both sides. In a market full of free safety options after a season when the league seemed to punt on the position, Mathieu might understandably prefer to lock up long-term stability in Houston. A three-year, $30 million deal could make sense for both parties.
3. Clean up the cornerback position. The Texans have thrown plenty of assets at corners, but things haven’t quite worked out the way they planned. Kareem Jackson, a first-round pick in 2010 who spent eight years at cornerback, moved to safety last season to replace Andre Hal, who was battling leukemia. Jackson is a free agent. Kevin Johnson, a 2015 first-rounder, hasn’t been able to stay healthy, and he missed 15 games in 2018 while dealing with the aftereffects of a pair of concussions. The Texans have a $9.1 million fifth-year option for him in 2019 that is guaranteed for injury, and it’s unclear whether the Wake Forest product will be able to pass a physical. A failed physical would trigger that guarantee.
The Texans drafted Johnson with the hopes that he would eventually take over for Johnathan Joseph, who started 14 games at age 34 and is under contract for $4.8 million in 2019. When Johnson got hurt in 2016, the Texans promoted A.J. Bouye, who excelled in a starting role. The Jaguars signed Bouye to a five-year, $67.5 million deal in free agency in 2017, and the Texans responded by signing Jags slot corner Aaron Colvin to a four-year, $34 million contract last year.
After one year, it’s hard to think of many significant free-agent deals that look worse than Colvin’s. He missed six weeks with an ankle injury, but even after returning to health, the Texans seemed to sour on their new acquisition. Colvin played just 112 defensive snaps over the final six weeks of the season, 60 of which came in one game, when the Texans benched midseason addition Shareece Wright. Houston restored Wright to the lineup the following week in favor of Colvin, who was a healthy scratch in the wild-card loss to the Colts. Indy subsequently picked on Wright during the game, with Dontrelle Inman beating him for a 21-yard touchdown.
The Texans are probably locked into bringing back Colvin. The 27-year-old has a $8.6 million cap hit in 2019, and Houston would owe $10.5 million in dead money if it cuts him. Even if the Texans designated Colvin as a post-June 1 release, they would owe $8.5 million in dead money on their cap in 2019 and $2 million next year. Given their cornerback depth chart is Joseph and a series of question marks, the Texans likely will hope they can recoup something out of their investment in 2019. They’ll also need to address the position in free agency or the draft.
4. Add a receiver, not Le’Veon Bell. The Texans have been popularly linked to Bell, given that Lamar Miller is entering the final year of his deal and 2017 third-rounder D’Onta Foreman missed virtually all of the 2018 season while recovering from a torn Achilles tendon. With Deshaun Watson making slightly more than $4 million over the next two seasons, the Texans have the cap space to go after a star running back like Bell.
I’m not sure it’s the right move for the Texans. In a vacuum, Bell won’t be a great deal for any team at the $15 million annual average salary he’ll attract in free agency. The Steelers did just fine with James Conner and Jaylen Samuels as their primary backs last season. Bell’s track record with injuries and suspensions suggest he’s not likely to stay on the field for 16 games per season on a regular basis, either.
I also don’t think the fit with the Texans is perfect. Houston mostly operates out of the pistol and shotgun, owing to Watson’s comfort there going back to his time at Clemson. Watson took 85.1 percent of his pass dropbacks out of the pistol or in shotgun last season. Bell is certainly comfortable out of the shotgun — he shows no significant split in performance regardless of where the quarterback begins on his rushing plays — but nearly 62 percent of his runs over the past four years began with Ben Roethlisberger under center.
The Texans might want to add a back, but they’re probably better off drafting a runner to compete with Foreman for carries after Miller leaves town. They have an extra second-rounder from the Duane Brown trade with the Seahawks, too.
Where Houston might instead want to make an addition is at receiver, where they’ve failed to surround DeAndre Hopkins with steady help. Will Fuller, a 2016 first-rounder, seems to have a telepathic connection with Watson but can’t stay healthy. Fuller has 45 receptions for 782 yards and 11 touchdowns in 11 games with Watson, but the Notre Dame product also has missed time with a broken collarbone, cracked ribs, hamstring injuries and a torn ACL. Rookie fourth-rounder Keke Coutee battled a hamstring ailment throughout 2018, and Demaryius Thomas lasted seven games before tearing his Achilles.
The Texans have cycled through all kinds of tight end options over the past few seasons, and given the depth of that position in this year’s draft, it’s the most logical place they can upgrade on the likes of Ryan Griffin and Jordan Thomas. Jordan Akins, a third-round pick last year, will figure in the offense this season, but the former minor league baseball player will turn 27 in April and doesn’t have much time to waste. If the Texans see a franchise tight end in this draft, they should do what they can to nab him.
5. Add help at offensive tackle. You thought I forgot? The Texans should use their first-round pick on a tackle. They should sign a free-agent tackle. They should hold an open tryout exclusively for tackles. They should ask J.J. Watt whether he has any brothers who forgot to try out for the football team and give them a shot at tackle.
