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[Hypothetical] Good Mills, Average Texans

Dakota

Ticketbooth Attendant
Would you say Stafford or Burrow exhibited elite skill sets?
I would. Stafford absolutely has an elite arm, I don't think that has ever been in question. He finally landed on a good team and won a championship. Jury is still out on Burrow, but the dude is an elite competitor and seems to have that "it" factor.
 

Hervoyel

BUENO!
Well, the reason I thought it was an interesting scenario is because while pro bowl or near pro bowl level is good, there's been guys who reach that level but either flame out quickly after or you may still consider them as guys that could be replaced...If something better comes a long...

Mills would still be cheap, so it's not like it'd be cost prohibitive to take a guy and replace him. And also, many consider next years top QB's a really good group.

I'm a Mills guy myself, so I'm kind of with you on if he looks good next year use the two firsts to build around him...That said, I wouldn't be totally against trading up for an elite prospect at the position or using one of the picks on a very good prospect from that crop :shrug:
I'm not an anybody guy anymore. I'm a "Show me" guy and so yeah, that would be a really good scenario and problem to have. "My QB just played lights out but my team is still not getting it done. Do I replace the one guy who seems to be making things happen or do I build a better team around him?" Either way I've got picks to spend on improvement but if you stick with Mills and you just saw his career ceiling you'll be kicking yourself should one of those highly regarded prospects turn into a franchise QB. You just go with your gut and pick a direction I guess if you're Cal/Nick/Lovie.

Without seeing what that season looks like I'd say keep building the team. You know how many highly regarded QB's pan out? Not nearly enough to make me want to go get one to see how he does on my "not good enough anyway" football team.
 

Texansphan

Hall of Fame
If there's anything close to a truism in modern day NFL football, it is that teams that consistently make playoffs and win playoff games have an elite QB at the helm. So barring Mills flashing elite skills or showing massive improvement, you keep searching for that guy. Especially if a top QB prospect is sitting there when we pick in the first round.
There are outliers - Joe Flacco comes to mind.
That Ravens team won because they had an elite D - iow, building the team around a decent QB can reap the big reward.
Brad Johnson is another...;)
Question - was Matt Stafford considered elite before last season?
 
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thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
you'll be kicking yourself should one of those highly regarded prospects turn into a franchise QB. You just go with your gut and pick a direction I guess if you're Cal/Nick/Lovie.
I don’t think it’s a matter of gut. They’ll have worked with Mills for two complete seasons by then. They should have a good idea who he is & who he is not.

If they can’t tell if they have David Carr in front of their face or Matt Stafford, or don’t know how to make do with Alex Smith in the meantime, it doesn’t matter who they draft. Whoever he is will most likely fall because of their ineptitude
 

Speedy

Former Yeller Dweller
There are outliers - Joe Flacco comes to mind.
That Ravens team won because they had an elite D - iow, building the team around a decent QB can reap the big reward.
Brad Johnson is another...;)
Question - was Matt Stafford considered elite before last season?
Though those outliers are true, it’s a lot harder to be contenders year in and year out trying to maintain a team around an average QB, than it is to have a top end QB, fill in pieces here and there, and always being in the mix.

Sure, guys like Rodgers and Brees only went to one SB, but their teams were almost always in the mix. A team like the Jets with Mark Sanchez didn’t last very long. Even the Ravens with Flacco had 1 winning season the next 4 years after their SB win.

As for Stafford, I’ve always thought he was at least a tier 2 QB that probably could have been tier 1 if not for wasting away in football hell known as Detroit. He threw for 5,000 yards in his 3rd season, at the time only the 4th to ever do so. And he was 33 yards shy of doing it 2 years in a row.

I think he’s a guy that had he been almost anywhere but Detroit would be regarded a lot higher than he is, and I think the second he got out of there he proved it.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
There are outliers - Joe Flacco comes to mind.
That Ravens team won because they had an elite D - iow, building the team around a decent QB can reap the big reward.
Brad Johnson is another...;)
Question - was Matt Stafford considered elite before last season?
Flavco played at a high level during the playoffs.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
Though those outliers are true, it’s a lot harder to be contenders year in and year out trying to maintain a team around an average QB, than it is to have a top end QB, fill in pieces here and there, and always being in the mix.
I agree. But I’ll add you have to play the hand you’re dealt & make the most of it.

if you don’t have an Andrew Luck, Jared Goff, or Sam Bradford, build your team & accumulate future draft picks so when the time is right you can go get your Carson Wentz, Sam Darnold, or Jamies Winston
 

Texansphan

Hall of Fame
Though those outliers are true, it’s a lot harder to be contenders year in and year out trying to maintain a team around an average QB, than it is to have a top end QB, fill in pieces here and there, and always being in the mix.

Sure, guys like Rodgers and Brees only went to one SB, but their teams were almost always in the mix. A team like the Jets with Mark Sanchez didn’t last very long. Even the Ravens with Flacco had 1 winning season the next 4 years after their SB win.

As for Stafford, I’ve always thought he was at least a tier 2 QB that probably could have been tier 1 if not for wasting away in football hell known as Detroit. He threw for 5,000 yards in his 3rd season, at the time only the 4th to ever do so. And he was 33 yards shy of doing it 2 years in a row.

I think he’s a guy that had he been almost anywhere but Detroit would be regarded a lot higher than he is, and I think the second he got out of there he proved it.
And why? He stepped into a good football team!
Ta da!
 

The Pencil Neck

Hall of Fame
Absolutely.
Having a good team around him also helped a teeny tiny bit...
I was under the impression that year that Flacco was fine until he got hit a few times. We crushed them when we played them earlier in the season because JJ got to him and got in his head. But then at the end of the season, he just got on a hot streak and rode it all the way to the SB.

That surprised me.
 

DocBar

Hall of Fame
Contributor's Club
If Mills is top 10 in the AFC, he's a keeper and I build a team around him. With the offensive additions this spring, I expect much better production, especially in the running game. Hopefully Mills doesn't get shell-shocked while the OL is gelling. That's probably my biggest fear, but could they be any worse than last seasons OL?
 

Dakota

Ticketbooth Attendant
So you can't say if he's got elite skills until he wins a Super Bowl?
Never said that, in fact I do think Joe has shown elite skills and I stated that - especially on the competitiveness and decision-making front. If true, then his team will likely find themselves in the playoffs on a regular basis because of that.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Never said that, in fact I do think Joe has shown elite skills and I stated that - especially on the competitiveness and decision-making front. If true, then his team will likely find themselves in the playoffs on a regular basis because of that.
Mills actually has a stronger arm than Joey B. But Joey B's ability to read defenses and deliver the ball with anticipation and accuracy is elite. Of course he's throwing to Chase, Higgins, Boyd etc... and Mills doesn't have those types of weapons to throw too. Hopefully Collins and Metchie can develop into these types of weapons.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
If Texans end 2022 with the #1 pick in the 2023 draft, you draft Bryce Young, no questions asked.
You must like midget QBs that don't throw well under pressure and will transfer at the drop of a hat, rather than stay and try to win something he was unable to accomplish last yr. Win a championship, right now he's 0-1. Now that he's cut and run, it's unlikely that that he gets another chance at a championship. It must not be important to him and I don't want a guy like that as the leader of the franchise.
 

Lucky

Trust Me. I Know What I'm Doing.
Staff member
If Texans end 2022 with the #1 pick in the 2023 draft, you draft Bryce Young, no questions asked.
Who was the no doubt #1 QB and #1 overall pick going into last season? Really, I can't remember the guy's name. The #2 QB in the nation heading into the season was a guy that ended up going in the 5th round.

We know squat about what QB will emerge as the #1 overall QB. Less than we know about Mills, which is slightly more than squat. No questions asked? There's a thousand questions we don't even know to ask.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
No Kelly. No Culley. No Tyrod. No excuses.

Let Mills play and see what he's got. Let the scouts scout the college QBs. Get in a room next spring and decide how to move forward.

Too soon to have this discussion.
Way to soon to have this discussion. How about letting Mills have 1 full season of starting (he hasn't had this in either college or the NFL.) before even starting to have this discussion. Also it wouldn't hurt a bit if Mills had some weapons added like Burrow/Herbert/Mahomes/Allen has.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Who was the no doubt #1 QB and #1 overall pick going into last season? Really, I can't remember the guy's name. The #2 QB in the nation heading into the season was a guy that ended up going in the 5th round.

We know squat about what QB will emerge as the #1 overall QB. Less than we know about Mills, which is slightly more than squat. No questions asked? There's a thousand questions we don't even know to ask.
And Rattler transferred.
 

vtech9

Veteran
Who was the no doubt #1 QB and #1 overall pick going into last season? Really, I can't remember the guy's name. The #2 QB in the nation heading into the season was a guy that ended up going in the 5th round.

We know squat about what QB will emerge as the #1 overall QB. Less than we know about Mills, which is slightly more than squat. No questions asked? There's a thousand questions we don't even know to ask.
Spencer Rattler was considered the #1 QB going into last season, but he sucked, and got benched. Now he's on a new team, and may not even start there.

Bryce Young thought about entering the transfer portal, and almost left Alabama. Why?
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Spencer Rattler was considered the #1 QB going into last season, but he sucked, and got benched. Now he's on a new team, and may not even start there.

Bryce Young thought about entering the transfer portal, and almost left Alabama. Why?

Money/Money/Money
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Sure. Wasn't all of the talent around Young. Has to be the wisdom of O'Brien.
Lol, Sure talent around him matters.

See: Davis Mills still needs talent around him.

Why haven't other Tide QBs won Heismans lately? Maybe talent around him made Young look better than he is.

BOB called a good game in the NC game and Young struggled to handle the pressure.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
Hush your mouth....I don't want him anywhere near the Texans ever again. He'd find a way to become HC or GM again, and we damned sure don't need that.
He was in the Championship game with both Saban & Belichick. I’m Championship game or bust at this point
 

Texian

Hall of Fame
Who was the no doubt #1 QB and #1 overall pick going into last season? Really, I can't remember the guy's name. The #2 QB in the nation heading into the season was a guy that ended up going in the 5th round.

We know squat about what QB will emerge as the #1 overall QB. Less than we know about Mills, which is slightly more than squat. No questions asked? There's a thousand questions we don't even know to ask.
OK C.J. Stroud then.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
Lord please cure ThunderKyss of this sudden delusional thought process. He means well.. but sometimes this insanity shoves it's way to his lips and he just cannot stop himself.
Would you give up two 1st round picks to get Belichick? If you knew you were going to get good Belichick for 10 years?
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
Yes, but if we're going to go down that road.. We might as well ask "would you trade 2 first round picks if you knew you were going to get good Brady for 10 years".

Yes I would, but that's fantasy.
It was all fantasy. Started with a picture of O'Brien as 'Bama OC.
 

Hervoyel

BUENO!
I don’t think it’s a matter of gut. They’ll have worked with Mills for two complete seasons by then. They should have a good idea who he is & who he is not.

If they can’t tell if they have David Carr in front of their face or Matt Stafford, or don’t know how to make do with Alex Smith in the meantime, it doesn’t matter who they draft. Whoever he is will most likely fall because of their ineptitude
It will be a "partially" informed decision but ultimately they're still guessing about how the prospect pans out and still hoping that what Mills has shown them is going to translate into wins when the team around him gets better. What if they get better but Mills regresses? He wouldn't be the first one to do so. They'll know the measurables and the work ethic which is great but not how he handles success for example (not something that's been in big supply in Houston during his time here).
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
It will be a "partially" informed decision but ultimately they're still guessing about how the prospect pans out and still hoping that what Mills has shown them is going to translate into wins when the team around him gets better. What if they get better but Mills regresses? He wouldn't be the first one to do so. They'll know the measurables and the work ethic which is great but not how he handles success for example (not something that's been in big supply in Houston during his time here).
How's that different from any other QB whether he was drafted at the top of the 1st round or the bottom of the 7th.

The Chargers were looking at Drew Brees, drafted Rivers, then let Brees go after 3/4 years? They chose wrong (arguably, Rivers isn't a bad QB by any means, but Brees is going in the HOF, 1st ballot). The Dolphins were looking at Brees & Culpepper... they chose wrong, guessing how either were going to pan out, hoping what they've shown would translate into wins.

My main point, is the Texans have more to base their decisions on than what we see on Sunday. Just like the Cowboys "knew" they had a franchise guy in Romo or Dak. Just like Belichick knew he had something special in Brady even though his stats weren't gaudy. They work with these guys. They live with these guys. They should know what they have. How good/bad they are in discerning what they have is the question. But they should have more than their "gut" to base their decision on.
 

beerlover

Hall of Fame
Believing in flashes and traits is all we have to work with after one year. Better team around him, protection, weapons will provide the necessary data points to paint a more accurate profile moving forward. Having said that we all have our early impressions and can loosely draw our own conclusions.

Davis Mills, was an important draft pick in the 3rd rd. 2021 NFL Draft for the Houston Texans. Developed rookie season enough to earn a 2nd look. Ideally a back-up, with plus arm, Davis needs his intelligence to shine schematically in regards to his football IQ. Faster recognition and release the ball without hesitation. Don’t hold onto the ball looking for home run plays, utilize quick win windows and don’t turn the ball over. If he can develop those attributes he will survive here as a system QB.
 

michaelm

vox nihili
How's that different from any other QB whether he was drafted at the top of the 1st round or the bottom of the 7th.

The Chargers were looking at Drew Brees, drafted Rivers, then let Brees go after 3/4 years? They chose wrong (arguably, Rivers isn't a bad QB by any means, but Brees is going in the HOF, 1st ballot). The Dolphins were looking at Brees & Culpepper... they chose wrong, guessing how either were going to pan out, hoping what they've shown would translate into wins.

My main point, is the Texans have more to base their decisions on than what we see on Sunday. Just like the Cowboys "knew" they had a franchise guy in Romo or Dak. Just like Belichick knew he had something special in Brady even though his stats weren't gaudy. They work with these guys. They live with these guys. They should know what they have. How good/bad they are in discerning what they have is the question. But they should have more than their "gut" to base their decision on.
The Brees situation was unique because he had an impending shoulder surgery, and an expiring contract.
He injured his shoulder in a meaningless last game of the season.
The Chargers offered him a contract that was heavily incentive laden and he rejected it.
It's generally accepted that if he had not been injured, the Chargers would have offered him a fair value contract, re-signed him and most likely traded Rivers.
 


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