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[Hypothetical] Good Mills, Average Texans

xtruroyaltyx

Hall of Fame
I heard this proposed on the Radio the other day.

Would you still draft a QB in the 1st rd. of the 2023 draft if say Mills had a good year...We'll say Pro Bowl or borderline pro bowl, top 10ish QB caliber season...

...BUT, the Texans are still not very good, or average. That means they’d have a decent draft pick plus the Browns first.

It is supposed to be a good group of QB's coming out, plus the Texans have ammo to move up and get a guy they really want.



Would you still take a QB? Or even trade up for a top guy? Or Take two non QB's in the first to bolster the team around Mills.
 
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otisbean

Veteran
Contributor's Club
I heard this proposed on the Radio the other day.

Would you still draft a QB in the 1st rd. of the 2023 draft if say Mills had a good year...We'll say Pro Bowl or borderline pro bowl, top 10ish QB caliber season...

...BUT, the Texans are still not a very good, or average.

It is supposed to be a good group of QB's coming out, plus the Texans have ammo to move up and get a guy they really want.



Would you still take a QB? Or even trade up for a top guy? Or Take two non QB's in the first to bolster the team around Mills.
if Mills plays at a pro bowl level but the team isn’t very good, I don’t understand taking a QB. The obvious answer is to improve the rest of the team.
 

xtruroyaltyx

Hall of Fame
if Mills plays at a pro bowl level but the team isn’t very good, I don’t understand taking a QB. The obvious answer is to improve the rest of the team.

Well, the reason I thought it was an interesting scenario is because while pro bowl or near pro bowl level is good, there's been guys who reach that level but either flame out quickly after or you may still consider them as guys that could be replaced...If something better comes a long...

Mills would still be cheap, so it's not like it'd be cost prohibitive to take a guy and replace him. And also, many consider next years top QB's a really good group.

I'm a Mills guy myself, so I'm kind of with you on if he looks good next year use the two firsts to build around him...That said, I wouldn't be totally against trading up for an elite prospect at the position or using one of the picks on a very good prospect from that crop :shrug:
 

Toro Bravo

Waterboy
Regardless of how Mills plays, I would not be opposed to taking a QB with one of our first round picks next year, if one of the top prospects falls to us. But I am not in favor of trading up if Mills is a top 10 QB. There are too many other needs on this roster to spend draft capital where it is not needed. That said, you can never have too many good QB's.
 

Texansphan

Hall of Fame
If Mills looks good and continues to improve, I wouldn't want to take a QB with our first pick - what kind of message would that send to Mills?
I agree with the previous comments on further improving the team around him.
If there is a decent QB still available in the bottom of the second round, sure, take him - we can always use a good backup or nice trade chip.
 

banned1976

sleeper mode
I would consider bringing in a top rookie quarterback. If the Texans are willing to take a flyer on a corner with a serious red flag at #3, why not a quarterback with serious upside?

I've never heard someone say of a good quarterback "he makes everyone around him better". I never heard that of Matt Schaub, the still Texans all-time passing leader.

So yeah, if the Texans are sitting there with a top 3 pick in 2023 and a top 3 talent QB is there for the taking, I'm pulling the trigger. Because if the Texans have one of the three worst records in the NFL in 2022, and Mills is a fringe top 10 quarterback, it's worth it to take a chance on another quarterback. You're providing competition at the position, at the very least. At the most, you're drafting a budding super star at the position.

I really like this topic. As the college football season unfolds in 2022, it's worth watching guys like Bryce Young, CJ Stroud, and Anthony Richardson.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
Would you still take a QB? Or even trade up for a top guy? Or Take two non QB's in the first to bolster the team around Mills
I don’t think it’s about stats. I’m going to watch Mills from the time he walks into the building to the way he walks out after a game.

does he want to win? Does his actions reflect this? Is he a leader among men? Does he work on his craft as if it was his lively hood? Is he humble? Is he meeting expectations on & off the field?

If I’m satisfied with the answers to all these questions & more, QB1 is not on my radar. If any of these are questionable at the end of the season I’m looking to bring serious competition in the off-season. If I’m disappointed with the answers to these questions I’m looking for his replacement.

I try to imagine I’m the Chargers. Drew Brees has some issues, but I’ve got a generational prospect in the upcoming draft.

What to do, what to do?
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
That said, I wouldn't be totally against trading up for an elite prospect at the position or using one of the picks on a very good prospect
I’m old school. For me a top prospect looks like Phillip Rivers, or Justin Herbert. 6’6” 230lbs, canon of an arm pocket passer.

if these guys are “true duel threats” I’m not interested. Not early 1st round.

Dak in the 4th, Russell in the 3rd, Brees in the 2nd. If I see that guy I’m taking him regardless what I think about Mills.
 

Texan Asylum

Hall of Fame
Great discussion…

I like Mills and I like his consistent efforts toward improvement, and like TK said, it goes beyond the performances on the field that merits consideration. A good leader, both on and off the field, makes everyone around him better because they desire to ‘do’ better for him out of respect and attitude towards him, not because it’s their ‘job’ but because they WANT to out of appreciation…if you get the gist of what I’m saying.
 

KA4Texan

I'm not eating crickets.
Contributor's Club
Depends if I felt Mills was the problem or not.
IF he has an amazing year but the supporting cast is the problem... I think you shoot yourself in the foot chasing a rookie that could be the next HOFer but more likely a bust rather than spend that capital to try to solidify those positions around a strong QB.

Don't fix what aint broken. I say IF the QB shows he can learn, has growth and talent that puts him ar the top... count your blessings that you aren't in the same boat as other teams desperately seeking a serviceable QB, use a high pick for later picks and try to fix multiple spots while taking advantage of other teams desperation. Especially if most will be fishing for QBs.

I say that and in general Im not a fan of trading back. (I'm not making the calls so Im fine with what others do... just as long as they are held accountable for those decisions if they don't work.)

Considering where you "found" Mills, you could likely get depth at QB later, especially in later rounds while others try to plug holes you already filled while they were all taking the first/second round QBs.
 

AcresHomesTexan

No Longer Arlington: Escaped From Jerry's World
Staff member
Honestly, my Fear of Mills is that he exactly Kurt cousins or Andy Dalton. You clearly start that guy but ios not really a true difference maker. Ultimately, a team has to pay that guy and over his actual level.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
Honestly, my Fear of Mills is that he exactly Kurt cousins or Andy Dalton. You clearly start that guy but ios not really a true difference maker. Ultimately, a team has to pay that guy and over his actual level.
If I were Cincinnati & I felt that way about Dalton (after they traded Palmer) I’d have traded Dalton before the big pay day. They could got at least a low 1st for him.

Then again, who knows how far that team would have gone if they moved on from Marvin Lewis when Ocho Cinco was Chad Johnson.
 

KA4Texan

I'm not eating crickets.
Contributor's Club
If he is Schaub 2.0 (before he forgot who to throw to) I would be content at QB (for now)

Schaub wasn't elite, he wasn't going to carry your team, but you could certainly build around him. IMO there is no shame in not being elite, if elite were common it wouldn't be so sought after.

I wouldn't fear him being the solid/not gonna win you anything type until at the very least his rookie contract is up(or youve fixed all the other problems on the team) I think by then you will know what you have and if your staff is able to build around that.
 
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AcresHomesTexan

No Longer Arlington: Escaped From Jerry's World
Staff member
If I were Cincinnati & I felt that way about Dalton (after they traded Palmer) I’d have traded Dalton before the big pay day. They could got at least a low 1st for him.

Then again, who knows how far that team would have gone if they moved on from Marvin Lewis when Ocho Cinco was Chad Johnson.
I think that teams who get stuck with that type of guy are the last one to know it or in fear of not being able to another good not great QB
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
If he is Schaub 2.0 (before he forgot who to throw to) I would be content at QB (for now)

Schaub wasn't elite, he wasn't going to carry your team
Only thing stopping Schaub from being elite was his milquetoast, underthrow the ball because it’s easier to catch attitude.

It wasn’t a talent problem. Matt was smart & truly read defenses.

If Mills can read defenses like Schaub but brought just a little play maker attitude he’ll be one of the better QBs in the league for a long time
 

badboy

Hall of Fame
I don’t think it’s about stats. I’m going to watch Mills from the time he walks into the building to the way he walks out after a game.

does he want to win? Does his actions reflect this? Is he a leader among men? Does he work on his craft as if it was his lively hood? Is he humble? Is he meeting expectations on & off the field?

If I’m satisfied with the answers to all these questions & more, QB1 is not on my radar. If any of these are questionable at the end of the season I’m looking to bring serious competition in the off-season. If I’m disappointed with the answers to these questions I’m looking for his replacement.

I try to imagine I’m the Chargers. Drew Brees has some issues, but I’ve got a generational prospect in the upcoming draft.

What to do, what to do?
What you stated you want from Mills I agree with however that does not make him a franchise quarterback in my opinion. It makes him a really good leader of the team but does not make those around him necessarily better. He just does not have the skill sets. Yes everyone including me focuses on the last five games of 2021. While that is exciting, I do not want to bet on it. This season as we all have said will really give us a lot more info. I see Mills' ceiling as a Matt Schaub type quarterback; get you into the playoffs but not past division championship. We settled for that with Watson and I do not want to do it again. I never thought Watson would take us to the Superbowl.

I am very happy with this thread as it will be a 'break the ice' for a mock I will be putting in my thread sometime this week. I am already chuckling at the guaranteed rant from you know who "you just want to trade to trade'".

I want to improve this team and not adopt any of the players. I can easily see Davis Mills and this roster improving this season and still not add to our win column.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
He just does not have the skill sets
I don’t know what this means & I don’t know how we can say this after 5 games.


I see Mills' ceiling as a Matt Schaub type quarterback;
What’s the difference between a Matt Schaub & a Troy Aikman, or a Matt Ryan? Skill set wise?

To me, it’s about his ability to process more than his physical skills. He’s shown to be as athletic as any of those guys. Now it’s about seeing how big is the fight in the dog.

I can easily see Davis Mills and this roster improving this season and still not add to our win column.
That would point to a coaching problem. Too many 8/9 win teams on the schedule not to expect 6 wins.
 

Texansballer74

The Marine
Yes I would draft a backup quarterback in the later rounds. If Mills handles his business, I would continue to build around him. We still have a few more holes to fill.
 

xtruroyaltyx

Hall of Fame
Honestly, my Fear of Mills is that he exactly Kurt cousins or Andy Dalton. You clearly start that guy but ios not really a true difference maker. Ultimately, a team has to pay that guy and over his actual level.
True.

Although I think you can maybe win with those types given the right circumstances and if things break right, I’d find it hard to pass on a potential elite talent if my qb wasn’t an “elite” talent himself.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
I heard this proposed on the Radio the other day.

Would you still draft a QB in the 1st rd. of the 2023 draft if say Mills had a good year...We'll say Pro Bowl or borderline pro bowl, top 10ish QB caliber season...

...BUT, the Texans are still very good, or average. That means they’d have a decent draft pick plus the Browns first.

It is supposed to be a good group of QB's coming out, plus the Texans have ammo to move up and get a guy they really want.



Would you still take a QB? Or even trade up for a top guy? Or Take two non QB's in the first to bolster the team around Mills.
Considering how little Mills has played, I'm putting a team around him, rather than drafting a small QB or an Ohio State QB.
 

xtruroyaltyx

Hall of Fame
Considering how little Mills has played, I'm putting a team around him, rather than drafting a small QB or an Ohio State QB.
What about Richardson from Florida or Levi’s from ‘tucky ?

I like Mills too, but could kind of suck for him though with this next draft having so many good qb’s.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Well, the reason I thought it was an interesting scenario is because while pro bowl or near pro bowl level is good, there's been guys who reach that level but either flame out quickly after or you may still consider them as guys that could be replaced...If something better comes a long...

Mills would still be cheap, so it's not like it'd be cost prohibitive to take a guy and replace him. And also, many consider next years top QB's a really good group.

I'm a Mills guy myself, so I'm kind of with you on if he looks good next year use the two firsts to build around him...That said, I wouldn't be totally against trading up for an elite prospect at the position or using one of the picks on a very good prospect from that crop :shrug:
What did you see in the last 5 games of last season that you didn't like about the way that Mills played that makes you think he's not the QB of the future?

Next year I don't expect the team to be good, so if Mills still isn't a top 10 QB I'm still not changing my thought process, unless he regresses badly.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
What about Richardson from Florida or Levi’s from ‘tucky ?

I like Mills too, but could kind of suck for him though with this next draft having so many good qb’s.
I don't like either one of those guys as much as I like Mills.

In fact I don't know that Richardson was the best QB on his team last year. I liked Jones more than Richardson.
 

xtruroyaltyx

Hall of Fame
What did you see in the last 5 games of last season that you didn't like about the way that Mills played that makes you think he's not the QB of the future?

Next year I don't expect the team to be good, so if Mills still isn't a top 10 QB I'm still not changing my thought process, unless he regresses badly.
I've like Mills since we drafted him. In the games he played last season, specifically towards the end it only reaffirmed my belief in him.


But I am not convinced he is 'special'....

I haven't seen enough of these upcoming QB's to say whether I believe they have a better chance of being a true franchise changing type talent, but assuming one or more of these guys makes me believe that, I don't want to live in an NFL world where we essentially pass on Aaron Rodgers because we already have David Carr (to a lesser degree)...David was coming off his best season as player btw....

To me this will be dependent on a lot of things so hard for me personally to fully answer right now....
 

banned1976

sleeper mode
I've like Mills since we drafted him. In the games he played last season, specifically towards the end it only reaffirmed my belief in him.


But I am not convinced he is 'special'....

I haven't seen enough of these upcoming QB's to say whether I believe they have a better chance of being a true franchise changing type talent, but assuming one or more of these guys makes me believe that, I don't want to live in an NFL world where we essentially pass on Aaron Rodgers because we already have David Carr (to a lesser degree)...David was coming off his best season as player btw....

To me this will be dependent on a lot of things so hard for me personally to fully answer right now....
Oh no, don't shoot your own thread in the foot with that last sentence.

For me, it's pretty simple. If Mills plays well but shows no special attributes, either as a leader or a passer (we know he doesn't have Vick type of running abilities), and the BPA when the Texans pick early in the first round of the 2023 draft is a quarterback, I'm not trading that pick nor am I reaching, even a little, for a different player - I'm drafting that quarterback. Unless that quarterback has not shown consistent plus skills of his own.

Under the right circumstances, if there's a quarterback with exceptional talent(s), I'd reach or trade up for him. Wouldn't have to necessarily be BPA.
 

Dejaview

All Pro
If Mills looks good and continues to improve, I wouldn't want to take a QB with our first pick - what kind of message would that send to Mills?
I agree with the previous comments on further improving the team around him.
If there is a decent QB still available in the bottom of the second round, sure, take him - we can always use a good backup or nice trade chip.
Yeah I agree with this. What is lost on me is how people can talk about getting an “elite” QB next year as If that is a can’t miss proposal. To do so based on a flame out theory after a QB has a “pro Bowl or near so” season would just be the height of insane stupidity. Let’s just say teams everywhere are looking for that magic moment to be able to build around a good QB, not blindly go on another trip on a road they’ve probably been on for some time.
 

vtech9

All Pro
How do you identify an NFL Elite QB coming out of college? Tom Brady wasn't thought to be elite coming out of college. Neither was Joe Montana. Ryan Leaf was. Trevor Lawrence was said to be the best ever talent. There have been many can't miss QB's coming out of college that turned out to be has-beens at best, and complete busts at worst. How do you know if any of the QB's coming out in '23 are going to be better NFL QB's than Mills?
 

beerlover

Hall of Fame
Hypothetically, this is a similar situation that the San Francisco 49ers faced in 2021. They had Jimmy Garoppolo as a middling starter but traded the farm to move up for Trey Lance. Difference being Garoppolo already had a huge contract they have yet to unload while Mills is on a super cheap rookie contract.

If Mills shows he is a legit NFL starter next season, doubt Caserio entertains offers for him, but never say never……. Texans could recover possibly a first round pick for him and or use that to move up for different franchise QB.

Usually these type of moves happen during regime changes which would mean new GM/Coach. So don’t expect anything like this to occur regarding Mills situation for another two years until everyone has had a fair shot.
 

Jack Burton

Veteran
Well, the reason I thought it was an interesting scenario is because while pro bowl or near pro bowl level is good, there's been guys who reach that level but either flame out quickly after or you may still consider them as guys that could be replaced...If something better comes a long...

Mills would still be cheap, so it's not like it'd be cost prohibitive to take a guy and replace him. And also, many consider next years top QB's a really good group.

I'm a Mills guy myself, so I'm kind of with you on if he looks good next year use the two firsts to build around him...That said, I wouldn't be totally against trading up for an elite prospect at the position or using one of the picks on a very good prospect from that crop :shrug:
Why would you dump a proven, NFL pro bowl level commodity, as your scenario is suggesting, over a guy who’s never played in the NFL and go to hoping a rookie pans out?
 

Texansballer74

The Marine
Hypothetically, this is a similar situation that the San Francisco 49ers faced in 2021. They had Jimmy Garoppolo as a middling starter but traded the farm to move up for Trey Lance. Difference being Garoppolo already had a huge contract they have yet to unload while Mills is on a super cheap rookie contract.

If Mills shows he is a legit NFL starter next season, doubt Caserio entertains offers for him, but never say never……. Texans could recover possibly a first round pick for him and or use that to move up for different franchise QB.

Usually these type of moves happen during regime changes which would mean new GM/Coach. So don’t expect anything like this to occur regarding Mills situation for another two years until everyone has had a fair shot.

To me it’s more similar to the Washington Redskins/Football Team/ Commanders situation with Robert Griffin III. I guess somewhat
 

Texansphan

Hall of Fame
Yeah I agree with this. What is lost on me is how people can talk about getting an “elite” QB next year as If that is a can’t miss proposal. To do so based on a flame out theory after a QB has a “pro Bowl or near so” season would just be the height of insane stupidity. Let’s just say teams everywhere are looking for that magic moment to be able to build around a good QB, not blindly go on another trip on a road they’ve probably been on for some time.
Some people won't be happy untill we have Tom Brady 2.0 - that would be nice, but highly unlikely.
This is why you build the team around a decent one, which coincidentally, you won't know you have until you get him the best chance to succeed.
Who knows, Mills could be a top 5 guy with more time under his belt.
 

xtruroyaltyx

Hall of Fame
Why would you dump a proven, NFL pro bowl level commodity, as your scenario is suggesting, over a guy who’s never played in the NFL and go to hoping a rookie pans out?
Thread hasn't gotten long enough where asking to simply go back and read is an outlandish request.
 

xtruroyaltyx

Hall of Fame
Oh no, don't shoot your own thread in the foot with that last sentence.

For me, it's pretty simple. If Mills plays well but shows no special attributes, either as a leader or a passer (we know he doesn't have Vick type of running abilities), and the BPA when the Texans pick early in the first round of the 2023 draft is a quarterback, I'm not trading that pick nor am I reaching, even a little, for a different player - I'm drafting that quarterback. Unless that quarterback has not shown consistent plus skills of his own.

Under the right circumstances, if there's a quarterback with exceptional talent(s), I'd reach or trade up for him. Wouldn't have to necessarily be BPA.
I didn't expect any definitive answers right now tbh.

SteelB doesn't like any of the qbs coming out so he's already against it. That's fair enough.

I started the thread more as a "something to keep an eye on" kind of deal. Just a topic of discussion.

Who knows, Mills could look terrible and then you'd almost be forced to pick a QB and the scenario is completely irrelevant.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Hypothetically, this is a similar situation that the San Francisco 49ers faced in 2021. They had Jimmy Garoppolo as a middling starter but traded the farm to move up for Trey Lance. Difference being Garoppolo already had a huge contract they have yet to unload while Mills is on a super cheap rookie contract.

If Mills shows he is a legit NFL starter next season, doubt Caserio entertains offers for him, but never say never……. Texans could recover possibly a first round pick for him and or use that to move up for different franchise QB.

Usually these type of moves happen during regime changes which would mean new GM/Coach. So don’t expect anything like this to occur regarding Mills situation for another two years until everyone has had a fair shot.
Difference is, so far Mills has remained healthy. Jimmy G not so much.
 

vtech9

All Pro
Difference is, so far Mills has remained healthy. Jimmy G not so much.
The difference is, Jimmy G sat behind Brady for a few years, and Mills was a rookie with only 11 starts in College.

The difference is, Jimmy G was expected to be the next Brady, and Mills was only expected to be a possible backup.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
The difference is, Jimmy G sat behind Brady for a few years, and Mills was a rookie with only 11 starts in College.

The difference is, Jimmy G was expected to be the next Brady, and Mills was only expected to be a possible backup.
Depends on what your expectations are.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
Would you still draft a QB in the 1st rd. of the 2023 draft if say Mills had a good year...We'll say Pro Bowl or borderline pro bowl, top 10ish QB caliber season...
This is like saying the Chargers should’ve drafted a QB in the 1st round in 2022.
 

xtruroyaltyx

Hall of Fame
This is like saying the Chargers should’ve drafted a QB in the 1st round in 2022.
Well I haven't said I believe the Texans should do anything yet one way or the other.
But...

In this past draft there was 1 QB that didn't go until 20...And then the next QB didn't come off the board until the third round...
In the next draft I've seen Mocks that have 5 QB's with first round grades, not to mention Mocks that have 2 QB's going in the top 5.

Also, Herbert was probably closer to top 5-ish rather than top 10-ish...

If Mills has a 2nd year like Herbert just had and looks as good doing it, then it's a pretty easy decision I think?
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Well I haven't said I believe the Texans should do anything yet one way or the other.
But...

In this past draft there was 1 QB that didn't go until 20...And then the next QB didn't come off the board until the third round...
In the next draft I've seen Mocks that have 5 QB's with first round grades, not to mention Mocks that have 2 QB's going in the top 5.

Also, Herbert was probably closer to top 5-ish rather than top 10-ish...

If Mills has a 2nd year like Herbert just had and looks as good doing it, then it's a pretty easy decision I think?
I wish Mills had the talent around him that Herbert has.
 

Carr Bombed

Hall of Fame
Thought Mills came with extensive injury history too? My bad.
I don't know where this narrative came from.. Davis Mills only had 1 injury in College (a minor one). Leg bruise.. 3 games missed.

He had a knee sprain in High School... And that's it for his injury history.

 
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Dakota

Ticketbooth Attendant
If there's anything close to a truism in modern day NFL football, it is that teams that consistently make playoffs and win playoff games have an elite QB at the helm. So barring Mills flashing elite skills or showing massive improvement, you keep searching for that guy. Especially if a top QB prospect is sitting there when we pick in the first round.
 

beerlover

Hall of Fame
I don't know where this narrative came from.. Davis Mills only had 1 injury in College (a minor one). Leg bruise.. 3 games missed.

He had a knee sprain in High School... And that's it for his injury history.

Mills had torn his ACL his senior year of high school. He’d torn it again as a freshman at Stanford. That’s not minor.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
If there's anything close to a truism in modern day NFL football, it is that teams that consistently make playoffs and win playoff games have an elite QB at the helm. So barring Mills flashing elite skills or showing massive improvement, you keep searching for that guy. Especially if a top QB prospect is sitting there when we pick in the first round.
Would you say Stafford or Burrow exhibited elite skill sets?
 


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