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Grade the 2021 draft selections

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
Thanks to Coach Culley, the 2021 class didn't get enough snaps to give a solid evaluation. Guys like Jordan and Wallow should have seen the field much earlier. Mills should have never been pulled for Taylor after the Taylor injury.

I'm hoping Lovie gets his rookie class on the field ASAP. That's how this franchise gets better.
If they don’t earn playing time they don’t belong on the field.

It’s a shame you & I didn’t get to evaluate these players, but the Texans should be evaluating them from the moment they come into the facility. They’re evaluated all week long.

If they didn’t get to play, they were not a better option than the JAG in front of him. Wallow I can understand. The LBs ahead of him played well.

Brevin Jordan I don’t understand. The JAGs in front of him didn’t play well at all.

Roy Lopez appears to have earned every snap he got.

Now, I thought it was a good idea to sit Mills for a few games. Let him recollect himself. Kind of like Duane Brown playing limited snaps.

But yeah, looks like Tyrod knew his time was past & was trying to get hisass benched.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
i don't think any team is going to nail 100% of the "guys they really like". The miss % on those guys will be same as everyone else. And at many selections, there's discussion on whom to pick. All I'm saying is, take as many of those guys as possible. Let the coaches sort them out on the field.
If the draft was before FA it’s possible the Texans approach would have looked like what you’re saying.

But the Texans appear to be pretty particular about how they shaped their roster. FA came 1st so they picked what they could when they could, then drafted to fill in the holes, then they had a FA frenzy picking up pass rush they “obviously” missed out on in the draft.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
If the draft was before FA it’s possible the Texans approach would have looked like what you’re saying.

But the Texans appear to be pretty particular about how they shaped their roster. FA came 1st so they picked what they could when they could, then drafted to fill in the holes, then they had a FA frenzy picking up pass rush they “obviously” missed out on in the draft.
Who did they sign in fa before the draft?

Cann/Stewart
 

Lucky

Ride, Captain, Ride!
Staff member
What team went with this approach and was successful?
I don't know if you're old enough to have seen them, but the 70's Steelers and 90's Cowboys are prime examples. More recently, Baby Shanny and John Lynch used 27 picks in 3 seasons to get the Niners into the Superb Owl. 3 All Pros after the 1st round. The Bungles became the Bengals again, taking 39 picks over 4 seasons. Neither team hit all of their picks. That's why you take as many as you can. I guy you love (Reuben Foster) is going to bust. I guy you kinda like (George Kittle) is gonna explode.

And the best reason to take a bunch of picks is to fill the back end of your roster. When rebuilding, the last 10-12 guys on your roster should be on rookie deals. You need to squeeze as much cap space for future years as you possibly can. When you're down, you scrimp and save. You cut coupons and buy generic over name brands. So, when things are getting better, you can make that down payment on the new minivan.

That's always been one of my questions regarding Caserio. He's never been in a rebuild. All he knows is sugar plums, lollipops, and Tom Brady. Lovie has been through a couple of rebuilds, so he should help. He picked up 9 picks in this draft. That's good. I just think he couls, and should, have gotten more.
If the draft was before FA it’s possible the Texans approach would have looked like what you’re saying.
Never let the signing of JAGS influence draft decisions.
 
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Texansballer74

The Marine
I don't know if you're old enough to have seen them, but the 70's Steelers and 90's Cowboys are prime examples. More recently, Baby Shanny and John Lynch used 27 picks in 3 seasons to get the Niners into the Superb Owl. 3 All Pros after the 1st round. The Bungles became the Bengals again, taking 39 picks over 4 seasons. Neither team hit all of their picks. That's why you take as many as you can. I guy you love (Reuben Foster) is going to bust. I guy you kinda like (George Kittle) is gonna explode.

And the best reason to take a bunch of picks is to fill the back end of your roster. When rebuilding, the last 10-12 guys on your roster should be on rookie deals. You need to squeeze as much cap space for future years as you possibly can. When you're down, you scrimp and save. You cut coupons and buy generic over name brands. So, when things are getting better, you can make that down payment on the new minivan.

That's always been one of my questions regarding Caserio. He's never been in a rebuild. All he knows is sugar plums, lollipops, and Tom Brady. Lovie has been through a couple of rebuilds, so he should help. He picked up 9 picks in this draft. That's good. I just think he couls, and should, have gotten more.

Never let the signing of JAGS influence draft decisions.
But those teams signed JAG’s too. And look at how long it took the Bengals, Jaguars and the Browns to see a small sample size of success. Shoots the Bengals might pull a Jaguars and fall back to the bottom just as quick as they finally seen the light.
 

Lucky

Ride, Captain, Ride!
Staff member
But those teams signed JAG’s too. And look at how long it took the Bengals, Jaguars and the Browns to see a small sample size of success. Shoots the Bengals might pull a Jaguars and fall back to the bottom just as quick as they finally seen the light.
I'm trying to understand your point. The JAGs will be long gone on one and two year deals before this team begins to win. Rookies sign 4 year deals. They are cheaper, and under contract longer. I really don't see why this is so difficult to see the benefit.
 

Texansballer74

The Marine
I'm trying to understand your point. The JAGs will be long gone on one and two year deals before this team begins to win. Rookies sign 4 year deals. They are cheaper, and under contract longer. I really don't see why this is so difficult to see the benefit.
The point is they brought in FA/JAG too.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
The point is they brought in FA/JAG too.
The Texans have drafted 14 players in the last two years.

The Texans would have to draft 13 players in 2023 to equal the 49ers 27 in 3 seasons, 25 players in 2023 & 2024 to match the Bengals 37 in 4 years.

I'm not saying that is the right course, only that's how far behind the Texans are.

Before I say, "Yep, that's the way to build" I've got to wonder how many draft picks those teams brought on their team in the preceding decade before they got back on track.
 

Texansballer74

The Marine
The Texans have drafted 14 players in the last two years.

The Texans would have to draft 13 players in 2023 to equal the 49ers 27 in 3 seasons, 25 players in 2023 & 2024 to match the Bengals 37 in 4 years.

I'm not saying that is the right course, only that's how far behind the Texans are.

Before I say, "Yep, that's the way to build" I've got to wonder how many draft picks those teams brought on their team in the preceding decade before they got back on track.
Man we have to give things time to develop. Caserio didn’t have that type of luxury in last years draft. My thing is some teams have gone with a different approach. Take the Rams for an example.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Man we have to give things time to develop. Caserio didn’t have that type of luxury in last years draft. My thing is some teams have gone with a different approach. Take the Rams for an example.
Exactly,

When you don't have 1-2nd rd picks of course you aren't going to have as many draft picks on the roster. Besides give me quality over quantity every time.

Say the Texans only are able to draft 15 high quality starters over 3 years, would you rather have 6 star quality players and 9 above avg starters or 27 draft picks including late rd guys? You can always supplement your roster in fa because you have cheap talent. Add 3 star level players to the roster over 3 years and fill in the rest with the Cann's/Stewart of the world. Fill out the very bottom of the roster with the UDFA and develop them while they learn on ST's.

Just my philosophy.
 

TheRealJoker

Hall of Fame
Exactly,

When you don't have 1-2nd rd picks of course you aren't going to have as many draft picks on the roster. Besides give me quality over quantity every time.

Say the Texans only are able to draft 15 high quality starters over 3 years, would you rather have 6 star quality players and 9 above avg starters or 27 draft picks including late rd guys? You can always supplement your roster in fa because you have cheap talent. Add 3 star level players to the roster over 3 years and fill in the rest with the Cann's/Stewart of the world. Fill out the very bottom of the roster with the UDFA and develop them while they learn on ST's.

Just my philosophy.
The key is hitting on the picks. The Texans now have a lot of picks next three drafts (including the one they just had). Caserio has a tendency to package picks to get his target. That shows a lot of confidence in him and his scouts’ evaluation. I hope he’s right in giving up picks like candy to get the players he covets.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
The key is hitting on the picks. The Texans now have a lot of picks next three drafts (including the one they just had). Caserio has a tendency to package picks to get his target. That shows a lot of confidence in him and his scouts’ evaluation. I hope he’s right in giving up picks like candy to get the players he covets.
This is a philosophy I agree with.

Do what it takes to get your guys.
 

Buckeye Homer

Rookie
Contributor's Club
I was curious about the Texans' 2021 draft. I noticed they didn't pick until the third round and took Davis Mills and Nico Collins. In spite of taking Stroud, I still believe that the jury is still out on Davis Mills and, of course, Nico Collins. Beyond them, the small draft class of 21' looks very underwhelming to me. I see the PFF gave that class an initial ranking of C- and, a year later, upgrade their grade to B-.

Looking back on that draft class, what are your thoughts?


HOUSTON TEXANS
R3 (67): QB Davis Mills, Stanford
R3 (89): WR Nico Collins, Michigan
R5 (147): TE Brevin Jordan, Miami (FL.)
R5 (170): Garett Wallow, TCU
R6 (195): Roy Lopez, Arizona
Initial Draft Grade: C-
1-year Re-Grade: B-
The Davis Mills pick saves the Texans to a degree, as he flashed in enough games that he’d go considerably higher in a re-draft today. He earned overall grades of 85.9, 76.3 and 78.0 in three separate starts last season despite finishing with a 58.8 overall grade. That was enough to make him the starter this season and bump this re-grade up a touch.
 

The Pencil Neck

Hall of Fame
It's really hard to say. You don't expect much from 3rd day players and we haven't gotten much from these guys. Mills showed some initial promise, but then regressed his second year.

The failures of this draft class may be entirely because of the weaknesses and flaws and lack of vision by the coaching staff or it may be a failure in scouting. Or both.

I'd give it a C at this point.
 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
Big fat F.

Can't find a single better than decent starter.

In this day and age of quick turnover, pretty much every 3rd rd pick need to be a starter and at least half of the 4th rounder need to be a starter on a decent team, let alone on a bad team.
 

Speedy

Former Yeller Dweller
Yes, I was excluding Brevin Jordan, Roy Lopez, and Garrett Wallow from having any real expectation because of they were drafted. We haven't gotten much from them.
Sure, expectations aren't high for those guys, that's why for me it's more about the execution of the draft in those late rounds. They moved up twice (3 picks) to get Wallow. As bad as the Texans LBs have been the last few years, Wallow couldn't even get on the field ahead of them. Wasted draft capital with that pick. Could have had 3 special teams players instead of 1, and maybe still could have gotten Wallow.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
They got one starter and a bunch of serviceable rotational type guys. I give that draft a C. I guess whatever your expectations of that draft was is how posters will grade that draft.
 

sandman

Brexit Advisor
Sure, expectations aren't high for those guys, that's why for me it's more about the execution of the draft in those late rounds. They moved up twice (3 picks) to get Wallow. As bad as the Texans LBs have been the last few years, Wallow couldn't even get on the field ahead of them. Wasted draft capital with that pick. Could have had 3 special teams players instead of 1, and maybe still could have gotten Wallow.
Agree about the Wallow pick, but we have no idea if three late rounders would still be on the team. League average is 1/3 of players taken in 6th/7th round make the team. They took a swing and a miss on Wallow, but I'm not losing sleep over bundling picks that are the exception to hit on and not the rule.
 

sandman

Brexit Advisor
Big fat F.

Can't find a single better than decent starter.

In this day and age of quick turnover, pretty much every 3rd rd pick need to be a starter and at least half of the 4th rounder need to be a starter on a decent team, let alone on a bad team.
Define "better than decent starter". If everyone in the first three rounds are expected to be starters, then your 3rd round picks will more than likely be... decent starters.
 

Number19

Hall of Fame
Agree about the Wallow pick, but we have no idea if three late rounders would still be on the team. League average is 1/3 of players taken in 6th/7th round make the team. They took a swing and a miss on Wallow, but I'm not losing sleep over bundling picks that are the exception to hit on and not the rule.
Wallow is still on the roster going into TC.
 

sandman

Brexit Advisor
You must have exceedingly high expectations for a fifth rounder. Wallow is a fixture on special teams and has the versatility of being able to play all three lb positions.
Fair. I thought the use of capital to move up meant we were getting a bit of a steal. Seems like he was drafted where he was supposed to be drafted.
 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
I don't think the numbers back you up on that. Most 3rd round picks are not starters.
I have more than 11 starters on both offense and defense.

The slot receiver and the slot CB.

In some games, you will notice that the TE or the slot receiver may not get the starting designation.

I also take into account the fact that many teams like to employ the RB by committee method.

When I mentioned good teams; I meant to say that some third rounders and many lower round picks can't start because the guy(s) in front of him (them) is (are) good.

Then there are injury situations, which Nico is one.
The thing is that he's been injured both years.
I had said that I liked him, but if he can't stay healthy, he can't help the team.
And when he can't be on the field, he can't be a starter.

That was the problem with the 2021 draft.
...

I also give guys at least until the second half of the second year.
Unfortunately again for Nico, he missed the last 5 games of the second year.

If Nico play at least 15 games this year, that grade certainly will change.

And there are cases like Metchie.

.....

At any rate, If you look at the good teams, you will see the vast majority of them with 5-7 guys 24 or under as starters.

That's the key to have a winning team.
There are instances when a third rounder may not start, (because the guy in front of him).

But when necessary (injury), he needs to be able to next-man-up.
That was what I meant by "need to be a starter".

I could bump the grade up a bit with Lopez, but it just doesn't feel right with his production dipping quite a bit in his second year.
If only his production can be switched, it could help giving the indication that he's improving and could be thought of as a third rounder.
 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
Define "better than decent starter". If everyone in the first three rounds are expected to be starters, then your 3rd round picks will more than likely be... decent starters.
I did not say "expected to be".
I said "need to be", and I tried to explain that in the above response to PN.

As far as better than decent, Pierce is one, but he wasn't in the 2021 draft.
He saved the 2022 draft a fair bit.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Agree about the Wallow pick, but we have no idea if three late rounders would still be on the team. League average is 1/3 of players taken in 6th/7th round make the team. They took a swing and a miss on Wallow, but I'm not losing sleep over bundling picks that are the exception to hit on and not the rule.
Wallow got hurt last year. He's still a good depth piece and a good ST's guy. Sometimes I wonder what the expectations are for these 5-6th rd guys? If Caserio finds a good depth piece and ST's guy I'm happy. Anything more than that and I'm happy. This is why I like using say a 4th, 5th and a 7th to move into the 3rd where you can find a starter level guy, if a guy you like falls into the 3rd.

Would you rather use those picks to get a starter that you you really like and fill out the bottom of the roster with ST's guys, or take a chance on a bunch of late rd fliers? Give me quality over quantity.
 

sandman

Brexit Advisor
Wallow got hurt last year. He's still a good depth piece and a good ST's guy. Sometimes I wonder what the expectations are for these 5-6th rd guys? If Caserio finds a good depth piece and ST's guy I'm happy. Anything more than that and I'm happy. This is why I like using say a 4th, 5th and a 7th to move into the 3rd where you can find a starter level guy, if a guy you like falls into the 3rd.

Would you rather use those picks to get a starter that you you really like and fill out the bottom of the roster with ST's guys, or take a chance on a bunch of late rd fliers? Give me quality over quantity.
Not really a hill I want to die on, but my initial point was that they packaged several late round picks to get a guy in the 5th that was expected to go in the 5th.

Was Wallow drafted in the right place? Apparently, based on his contributions so far to the team. Which makes using all of that draft capital to get him a head scratcher for me.

I don't have an issue with the packaging. Most guys drafted in the 6th/7th are not going to make the team. I just thought they were going to get more value for three (or was it four?) picks than a Depth/ST guy. Would rather they have taken those picks along with the 5th rounder and moved up higher.
 

OptimisticTexan

2024 / Rebuilding Block 4 After Playoffs / Texans
Personally, I look forward to seeing how DeMeco and his defensive system affects Wallow. I’ve never liked the “Bend But Don’t Break” defense b/c it does nothing to help the defensive pieces become better. Wallow could still be an outstanding depth piece and ST’s player…which could help justify the trade made to obtain him.
 

SnakeEyes

Under NRG
Keeping in mind the rounds they were selected in:

Mills A
Collins B
Jordan C
Wallow C
Lopez A <- just because he started the most games of all the draftees. I actually can't remember him at all from last year. LOL

Lopez played pretty good last year. But, I have been hearing that he may not make the roster this year. It's been a very often talking point on podcasts and interviews on them with people like McClain. Reason for this is that after picking up some FAs, some "in the know" reporters list him as 3rd string over other DTs such as Collins and Hughes (who is listed as DE). If he is released than the 2021 draft overall grade will take a hit.

For now:

Mills- B+ I don't think he fit the system we were running. And had to change staff/coaches 2 times. He showed some good things but overall...we likely we have not seen his final ability.

Collins- B
Jordan- C+
Wallow- C I forgot about him so that isn't a good thing
 

JB

Innocent Bystander
Contributor's Club
Reason for this is that after picking up some FAs, some "in the know" reporters list him as 3rd string over other DTs such as Collins and Hughes (who is listed as DE).
Those reporters are idiots
 

Texansballer74

The Marine
What were your expectations of a 3rd round QB?
I know a couple fourth rounders who are ballers. So I expect any starter to play some decent football.

I know a guy by the name of Tom Brady who will be a first ballot Hall of Famer as well.

So many examples of late round picks succeeding in the NFL.

But imo Mills doesn’t get a freaking B. Lol
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
I know a couple fourth rounders who are ballers. So I expect any starter to play some decent football.

I know a guy by the name of Tom Brady who will be a first ballot Hall of Famer as well.

So many examples of late round picks succeeding in the NFL.

But imo Mills doesn’t get a freaking B. Lol
So for you a B would be a 6 time Super Bowl Champion.

That's cool. All I was asking.
 
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