In a vacuum… the importance of picking the right offensive tackle outweighs the Texans’ need for another corner. But the draft does not exist in a vacuum. It is a televised spectacle that includes smokescreens sent out through the media and plenty of human error. The Texans have 22 teams selecting ahead of them in the first round, several of which — Jacksonville (7), Buffalo (9), Miami (13), Carolina (16), Minnesota (18) and Tennessee (19) — could reasonably choose offensive linemen. If enough do, the Texans might not find an available offensive tackle worth taking with its first pick. Instead, the Texans could select one of the cornerbacks The Athletic’s Dane Brugler projects to still be available well into the 20s. If that prediction proves inaccurate, though, and a team raises the value of cornerbacks in this draft by spending an early pick on one, then maybe some of the top offensive tackles slide.
The Athletic tried to map out both situations with a pair of mock drafts — one where Houston takes a cornerback in the first round, and one where it selects an offensive tackle with the 23rd pick. Neither mock draft included trades. The point of this exercise is not to link certain players to the Texans; rather, it’s to show how the quality of player Houston might get at these two positions of need could change with each option. Additionally, these mock drafts, done with the Fanspeak Simulator, provide examples of what other positions and types of players Houston could target in later rounds.
Mock Draft No. 1: The Texans select an offensive tackle in the first round
Round 1, No. 23 overall: Andre Dillard, OT, Washington State
Luckily for the Texans, Dillard is still available for them to pick in this mock draft. He’s arguably the best pass-blocker in this draft, and he played left tackle his entire collegiate career. He’d be comfortable playing there for Houston. Dillard was one of the top-performing linemen at the combine and the Senior Bowl, so he’s boosted his stock during the pre-draft process and might not actually be unclaimed by the time Houston picks for real. If Dillard is gone, some other options could be Oklahoma’s Cody Ford, Alabama’s Jonah Williams and Ole Miss’ Greg Little. Beyond that group of offensive tackles, there’s a drop-off. Of the men mentioned above, Little ranks lowest on The Athletic’s top 100 prospects list, checking in at No. 36. The next offensive tackle ranks 35 spots below him.
Round 2, No. 54 overall: Joejuan Williams, CB, Vanderbilt
At the combine, Gaine said the "perfect composition of the depth chart at defensive back" includes "guys who can play man, guys who can play zone, guys who are quick and fast, (and) guys who can play big guys." The Texans at least partially addressed that quick-and-fast element by signing Roby, but they’re still in need of a larger cornerback. None of their proven ones stands taller than 6 feet. Look no further than Williams, who measured at 6 feet, 3.5 inches tall. Brugler writes that Williams is "underdeveloped mechanically and mentally," so he’s unlikely to be Houston’s top corner right away, but he would provide a unique skill set for certain man-coverage situations.
Round 2, No. 55 overall: Elton Jenkins, OG/C, Mississippi State
O’Brien loves versatile linemen, and Jenkins has starting experience at every position other than right guard. Beyond North Carolina State’s Garrett Bradbury and Jonah Williams (who might play guard at the NFL level), Jenkins is one of the top interior linemen in the draft. Most of the the top group could still be available when Houston is on the clock in the second round. Even if this pick turns out not to be Jenkins, it would make a lot of sense for the Texans to target a versatile interior blocker here. The starting guard spot opposite Zach Fulton should be open for competition during training camp. And a year from now, with the proper depth on its roster, Houston could decide to shed Fulton’s deal, the most expensive offensive-lineman contract it has. Fulton, who was the team’s starting right guard last season, is playing on a contract that carries $7 million cap hits in 2020 and 2021 but holds no dead money in either season.
Round 3, No. 86 overall: Darnell Savage, S, Maryland
Earlier this offseason, Gaine said drafting Justin Reid and adding Tyrann Mathieu in free agency had turned safety into a "position of strength" for the Texans. But a year later, following Andre Hal’s surprising decision to retire and the departures of Mathieu and Kareem Jackson, Houston is in need of depth at safety. An undersized safety, Savage could fit in nickel packages, similar to Hal’s former role. Reid and free-agent acquisition Tashaun Gipson are the likely starters at the two safety spots.
Round 5, No. 161 overall: Bryce Love, RB, Stanford
O’Brien wants to target running backs in the passing game more often, so Houston needs a back who can get yards after the catch. Love (5-9, 200 pounds) has a smaller frame that might preclude him from being an every-down player, but he would be a speedy complement to Lamar Miller and D’Onta Foreman. That’s why he was one of five running backs The Athletic previously highlighted as potential fits for the Texans. All five are mid- to late-round prospects. Houston might select a running back with any of its final four picks.
Round 6, No. 195 overall: Byron Cowart, EDGE, Maryland
Christian Covington joined the Cowboys in free agency, and two of the Texans’ current reserves, Carlos Watkins and Joel Heath, did little in diminished roles last season. Houston needs to add another defensive lineman to its rotation, and it does so here. Cowart was once the country’s top-ranked recruit, but he never met expectations at Auburn and ultimately transferred to Maryland. In one season as a member of the Terrapins, he started all 12 games and finished with 38 tackles, five tackles for loss, three sacks, two interceptions and a forced fumble.
Round 7, No. 220 overall: Darius Slayton, WR, Auburn
Given the recent injury histories of Will Fuller and Keke Coutee, the Texans need more depth at receiver. Slayton, who ran a 4.39-second 40 at the combine, would provide them the vertical threat they missed after Fuller’s ACL tear last season. Currently, the Texans’ only backup receivers who have ever caught a pass in the NFL are Vyncint Smith and Deandre Carter, both undrafted free agents who were rookies last season. Wide receiver is a position Houston could prioritize in the market for undrafted free agents, too.
Mock draft No. 2: The Texans select a cornerback in the first round
Round 1, No. 23 overall: Deandre Baker, CB, Georgia
LSU’s Greedy Williams and Washington’s Byron Murphy are both off the board by this pick, so Houston selects Baker. Standing 5-foot-11, Baker doesn’t have the prototypical size Houston is seeking, and he ran a 4.52-second 40 during the pre-draft process, so he’s not one of the faster corners, either. Why would the Texans pick him? Well, with Williams off the board, the next-best bigger corner available is arguably Michigan State’s Justin Laynce, a converted wide receiver. Layne could be an option here, but he’s a high-ceiling prospect in need of more development. In Baker, the Texans get a starting-quality corner whose smarts, instincts and versatility should give him a high floor as a prospect.
Round 2, No. 54 overall: Tytus Howard, OT, Alabama State
The gap between Howard and the offensive tackles likely to go in the first round is what you’d expect: At 6-5, 322 pounds, with 34-inch arms, he has the build of an NFL left tackle, but he’s raw. The adjustment to NFL-level speed and strength at the line of scrimmage — the one O’Brien said many Power Five conference offensive linemen struggle with — will be massive for Howard. He’s also still getting used to his body. He was a high school quarterback and came to college as a 240-pound tight end. He’d have a chance to compete for Houston’s starting left tackle spot as a rookie, but he could struggle mightily.
Round 2, No. 55 overall: Dalton Risner, OG, Kansas State
Like the player the Texans took at this spot in the previous mock draft, Risner played all over the line in college, most recently as a right tackle. Brugler projects he’ll be best as an interior lineman at the NFL level. But having some experience on the edge could allow him to also back up Houston’s projected starter at right tackle, Seantrel Henderson, who has struggled to stay healthy during the past three years. Boston College’s Chris Lindstrom is another interior offensive lineman who should be picked during the second round.
Round 3, No. 86 overall: Trayveon Williams, RB, Texas A&M
Houston picks a running back again. This time, the Texans do so two rounds earlier than in the last draft. This is likely as high as Houston would go for a running back. Gaine still intends for Miller to be the Texans’ lead back next season, and Houston still thinks Foreman has promise.
Round 5, No. 161 overall: Armon Watts, IDL, Arkansas
Gaine wants to find an interior pass rusher who can complement Watt and Clowney on the edges, but this is a top-heavy class of interior defensive linemen, and the Texans have more pressing needs early in the draft. Houston will be gambling on the upside of any interior pass rusher it selects in the later rounds, so why not take a chance on a player like Watts? He didn’t earn a starting role until his senior season but ended up leading his team with seven sacks.
Round 6, No. 195 overall: Donald Parham, TE/WR, Stetson
O’Brien likes his two second-year tight ends, Jordan Thomas and Jordan Akins, but that doesn’t have to stop Houston from picking another tight end from what’s expected to be loaded draft class for the position. The team has little money committed to its two veteran tight ends, Ryan Griffin and Darren Fells, so the Texans have the flexibility to use a late pick on a player like Parham. He is 6-foot-8, and his big frame comes with a huge catch radius. Even if Houston likes the tight ends it has, Parham might provide depth as a receiver.
Round 7, No. 220 overall: Kharis Willis, S, Michigan State
The Texans address their need for safety depth later in this draft than they do in the other one. Beyond whichever safeties they draft or sign as undrafted free agents, defensive back Mike Tyson could also compete for snaps as a rotational safety. Tyson was mostly a special-teams player but did play on defense in five games for the Spartans last season.
