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Davis Mills vs rookie QBs

Number19 said:
Yes. I see Mills as a Brady type. If he could only be half as good!
Click to expand...

Based on college film and preseason reps, it was apparent that Mills shared some notable similarities with Brady. The most noticeable were his coolness in the pocket and his accuracy when in synch with his receivers. He has a calm, confident style of leadership where he doesn't get emotionally high or low, and it almost appears (not certain yet) he may have a faster release than Brady. I'm biased toward QB's with a quick release, which led me to buy his stock early.

It's also why we shouldn't be worried about his bad throws. That's coachable. People were like "Our rookie QB has taken 15 snaps in the NFL and just threw a terrible interception!" Oh, you don't say.

Here's some good analysis and criticism of Mills from his earlier games and the Chargers game. It includes All 22 views: Davis Mills and his future with the Houston Texans (usatoday.com)
 
Eric has a good scouting eye. one of the few good media scouting types...

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

2022 NFL draft: Davis Mills' emergence means Texans don't have to reach at QB

The Houston Texans began the season as the butt of the NFL’s jokes, the team most certain to sink and stink. But a funny thing happened on the supposed route to the gutter.

Yes, the early results were as expected. Beating the Jaguars in Week 1 was, some suggested, the Texans’ Super Bowl. Losing the next eight games fit the expected script.

But since the bye week, something fascinating has happened: The Texans have played some respectable football, going 3-3. Two of those wins were on the road, and two were against over-.500 teams.

A once-dormant offense has come to life. And all of a sudden, the Texans might not be as desperate for a quarterback as we once assumed.

Once Deshaun Watson was placed in football purgatory, awaiting his legal and professional fate to be resolved, the Texans felt like a team buying time until the next big move could be made at QB. Davis Mills has changed that narrative, the past three weeks especially.

You might not have been watching if you live, but Mills has recently impressed. Since reclaiming the starting QB position in Week 14, Mills has completed 73 of 106 passes (68.9%), thrown for 794 yards (7.5 yards per completion), compiled a 5-1 TD-INT ratio and taken only four sacks.

That’s a vast improvement over his cumulative performance up until that point, when Mills was 146-of-223 passing (65.5%) for 1,406 yards (6.3 YPC), had a 7-8 TD-INT ratio and was sacked 22 times.

You can excuse the Texans for rushing Mills into the lineup. There was always only so much they were going to learn about Tyrod Taylor anyway, and his hamstring injury opened the door for Mills in Week 3. Early as it might have been, Mills had won the backup job and deserved the shot.

Predictably, Mills was up and down. Yet there were enough highs in his early set of games — the Patriots performance in particular — to think he might not just be another third-round QB draft pick, even as the team kept the training wheels on for most of that ride.

What we’ve seen since Mills regained the starting job, however, has been the real eye-opener. The leash has been loosened, and the results have been impressive. Is it enough to tattoo “Franchise Quarterback” on his chest, “No Ragrets”-style? We say no.

But it certainly could alter the Texans’ immediate plans at quarterback. Especially when it comes to the 2022 draft.

What the Texans' 2022 QB picture should look like
Texans general manager Nick Caserio surprised some by making his first selection with his new franchise at quarterback. Lacking first- and second-picks in the 2021 draft, Caserio took Mills 67th overall — right after QBs Kyle Trask and Kellen Mond went in the three picks prior to that spot.

Caserio likely knew he couldn’t wait any longer to grab a passer. Mills almost certainly was Houston's highest-rated QB on its draft board.

Even so, taking Mills required forethought and patience. Given all the Texans’ needs, that had to be a difficult call in the moment.

The Watson situation had reached its first crest shortly before that, with the sexual-abuse allegations against him superseding his previous trade request. Caserio had to be prepared at the time for either Watson or Mills to essentially be redshirted this season.

Watson has been deadweight on the Texans’ roster this season. He hasn’t taken a snap this season and might never again play for the franchise. Meanwhile Mills has shown enough to figure into the team’s future plans on some level. That has been the silver lining. The team now has won a few games and doesn’t appear to be completely rudderless all of a sudden.

Apples to apples, Mills hasn’t looked too different from what the Patriots’ Mac Jones has done this season, albeit in fewer snaps. Even taking into account the smaller sample size, the Patriots have a far better surrounding cast for Jones than what the Texans provide for Mills.

There’s a case to be made that Mills has been steadier and less rookie-ish than the first four quarterbacks off the board — Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance and Justin Fields.

Does Mills have the upside and potential of any of those four? Maybe not. But it’s hard to argue he hasn’t bought himself time.

The Texans should ignore QB early in 2022 NFL draft
At no point has Davis Mills played at a level to guarantee he’s the future of the Texans’ franchise. But there’s little to suggest that he shouldn’t get an earnest shot to fill that role.

The Texans currently are set to draft third overall in the spring. That number likely will not be higher; the Jaguars and Lions each are one more loss away from guaranteeing their spots in the top two. Houston could slip as far as the ninth overall pick if it wins out and the teams picking immediately behind it now do not.

Even if one the 2022 draft’s top quarterback prospects — say, Pitt’s Kenny Pickett or Ole Miss’ Matt Corral — ends up going somewhere in the back end of the top 10 overall picks come April, the Texans probably should and will not be the team that selects either of them.

We’re not saying they shouldn’t consider drafting one this year. But with a top-10 pick? This isn’t the year.

For all we know, Corral, Pickett and some other QB prospects in this class might turn out to be fine pros. There's even a chance that if the Texans stick with head coach David Culley, they could be coaching at the Senior Bowl, potentially evaluating five of the top six QB prospects in person.

What we know now is that most NFL talent evaluators don’t seem to be nearly as excited about this coming year’s crop than they were about the 2021 class, which ended up with the five QBs taken in the top 15, along with the three more who landed in the top 70.

And we know how that class has fared overall so far as rookies.

If a later Day 2 or Day 3 quarterback tempts the Texans, there’s little reason to hesitate. Maybe someone such as Western Kentucky’s intriguing Bailey Zappe (who grew up a few hours down the road and started his college career at Houston Baptist) slips into that range. He's also headed for the Senior Bowl.

For once in the past few years, the Texans won’t be hamstrung by a lack of draft picks. They currently have one or more picks in every round (except for Round 5) and have extra picks in Rounds 3 (one) and Round 6 (two).

Passing on quarterbacks altogether in 2022 wouldn’t be criminal behavior, either. Mills and a veteran to be named later, whether it’s Taylor or someone else, should be the starting options for next season. And if that doesn’t pan out, the Texans can go full throttle looking for a QB to draft in 2023. This is no overnight rebuild, so they shouldn’t panic if they can’t draft one in a reasonable location this spring.

Don’t forget Davis Mills’ pedigree, lack of experience

THE REST OF THE STORY
 
Brisco_County said:
Here's a small example of why I'm high on Mills. Watch this throw at 0:33. He shifts his feet to throw to the right flat, and the ball leads the receiver. Beautiful throw.
Click to expand...
That last TD too Collins. Mills said it was supposed to be a run play, but he saw the coverage & called the pass. That's impressive from a rookie
 
Bottom line is Mills is playing a much better game than the first few games. Placement of passes is better, reading the D is better, going through progressions is vastly improving, sliding in the pocket to buy time is improving. He is getting better. The problem is he is playing with 1 real WR in Cooks ( jury is out on Collins and Dorsett), a spotty OL and no real RB. Not to mention the bad play calling most of the time. He is almost getting better in spite of the issues.
 
CloakNNNdagger said:
Eric has a good scouting eye. one of the few good media scouting types...

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

2022 NFL draft: Davis Mills' emergence means Texans don't have to reach at QB

The Houston Texans began the season as the butt of the NFL’s jokes, the team most certain to sink and stink. But a funny thing happened on the supposed route to the gutter.

Yes, the early results were as expected. Beating the Jaguars in Week 1 was, some suggested, the Texans’ Super Bowl. Losing the next eight games fit the expected script.

But since the bye week, something fascinating has happened: The Texans have played some respectable football, going 3-3. Two of those wins were on the road, and two were against over-.500 teams.

A once-dormant offense has come to life. And all of a sudden, the Texans might not be as desperate for a quarterback as we once assumed.

Once Deshaun Watson was placed in football purgatory, awaiting his legal and professional fate to be resolved, the Texans felt like a team buying time until the next big move could be made at QB. Davis Mills has changed that narrative, the past three weeks especially.

You might not have been watching if you live, but Mills has recently impressed. Since reclaiming the starting QB position in Week 14, Mills has completed 73 of 106 passes (68.9%), thrown for 794 yards (7.5 yards per completion), compiled a 5-1 TD-INT ratio and taken only four sacks.

That’s a vast improvement over his cumulative performance up until that point, when Mills was 146-of-223 passing (65.5%) for 1,406 yards (6.3 YPC), had a 7-8 TD-INT ratio and was sacked 22 times.

You can excuse the Texans for rushing Mills into the lineup. There was always only so much they were going to learn about Tyrod Taylor anyway, and his hamstring injury opened the door for Mills in Week 3. Early as it might have been, Mills had won the backup job and deserved the shot.

Predictably, Mills was up and down. Yet there were enough highs in his early set of games — the Patriots performance in particular — to think he might not just be another third-round QB draft pick, even as the team kept the training wheels on for most of that ride.

What we’ve seen since Mills regained the starting job, however, has been the real eye-opener. The leash has been loosened, and the results have been impressive. Is it enough to tattoo “Franchise Quarterback” on his chest, “No Ragrets”-style? We say no.

But it certainly could alter the Texans’ immediate plans at quarterback. Especially when it comes to the 2022 draft.

What the Texans' 2022 QB picture should look like
Texans general manager Nick Caserio surprised some by making his first selection with his new franchise at quarterback. Lacking first- and second-picks in the 2021 draft, Caserio took Mills 67th overall — right after QBs Kyle Trask and Kellen Mond went in the three picks prior to that spot.

Caserio likely knew he couldn’t wait any longer to grab a passer. Mills almost certainly was Houston's highest-rated QB on its draft board.

Even so, taking Mills required forethought and patience. Given all the Texans’ needs, that had to be a difficult call in the moment.

The Watson situation had reached its first crest shortly before that, with the sexual-abuse allegations against him superseding his previous trade request. Caserio had to be prepared at the time for either Watson or Mills to essentially be redshirted this season.

Watson has been deadweight on the Texans’ roster this season. He hasn’t taken a snap this season and might never again play for the franchise. Meanwhile Mills has shown enough to figure into the team’s future plans on some level. That has been the silver lining. The team now has won a few games and doesn’t appear to be completely rudderless all of a sudden.

Apples to apples, Mills hasn’t looked too different from what the Patriots’ Mac Jones has done this season, albeit in fewer snaps. Even taking into account the smaller sample size, the Patriots have a far better surrounding cast for Jones than what the Texans provide for Mills.

There’s a case to be made that Mills has been steadier and less rookie-ish than the first four quarterbacks off the board — Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance and Justin Fields.

Does Mills have the upside and potential of any of those four? Maybe not. But it’s hard to argue he hasn’t bought himself time.

The Texans should ignore QB early in 2022 NFL draft
At no point has Davis Mills played at a level to guarantee he’s the future of the Texans’ franchise. But there’s little to suggest that he shouldn’t get an earnest shot to fill that role.

The Texans currently are set to draft third overall in the spring. That number likely will not be higher; the Jaguars and Lions each are one more loss away from guaranteeing their spots in the top two. Houston could slip as far as the ninth overall pick if it wins out and the teams picking immediately behind it now do not.

Even if one the 2022 draft’s top quarterback prospects — say, Pitt’s Kenny Pickett or Ole Miss’ Matt Corral — ends up going somewhere in the back end of the top 10 overall picks come April, the Texans probably should and will not be the team that selects either of them.

We’re not saying they shouldn’t consider drafting one this year. But with a top-10 pick? This isn’t the year.

For all we know, Corral, Pickett and some other QB prospects in this class might turn out to be fine pros. There's even a chance that if the Texans stick with head coach David Culley, they could be coaching at the Senior Bowl, potentially evaluating five of the top six QB prospects in person.

What we know now is that most NFL talent evaluators don’t seem to be nearly as excited about this coming year’s crop than they were about the 2021 class, which ended up with the five QBs taken in the top 15, along with the three more who landed in the top 70.

And we know how that class has fared overall so far as rookies.

If a later Day 2 or Day 3 quarterback tempts the Texans, there’s little reason to hesitate. Maybe someone such as Western Kentucky’s intriguing Bailey Zappe (who grew up a few hours down the road and started his college career at Houston Baptist) slips into that range. He's also headed for the Senior Bowl.

For once in the past few years, the Texans won’t be hamstrung by a lack of draft picks. They currently have one or more picks in every round (except for Round 5) and have extra picks in Rounds 3 (one) and Round 6 (two).

Passing on quarterbacks altogether in 2022 wouldn’t be criminal behavior, either. Mills and a veteran to be named later, whether it’s Taylor or someone else, should be the starting options for next season. And if that doesn’t pan out, the Texans can go full throttle looking for a QB to draft in 2023. This is no overnight rebuild, so they shouldn’t panic if they can’t draft one in a reasonable location this spring.

Don’t forget Davis Mills’ pedigree, lack of experience

THE REST OF THE STORY
Click to expand...

I don't think a QB is worthy of the top 10 picks this year. We should 100% go a different direction. Or move around and aquire more picks. And fill out our needs. Take a QB if needed in 2023.
 
SnakeEyes said:
Bottom line is Mills is playing a much better game than the first few games. Placement of passes is better, reading the D is better, going through progressions is vastly improving, sliding in the pocket to buy time is improving. He is getting better. The problem is he is playing with 1 real WR in Cooks ( jury is out on Collins and Dorsett), a spotty OL and no real RB. Not to mention the bad play calling most of the time. He is almost getting better in spite of the issues.
Click to expand...
You do know Cooks didn't play Sunday?
 
SnakeEyes said:
Bottom line is Mills is playing a much better game than the first few games. Placement of passes is better, reading the D is better, going through progressions is vastly improving, sliding in the pocket to buy time is improving. He is getting better. The problem is he is playing with 1 real WR in Cooks ( jury is out on Collins and Dorsett), a spotty OL and no real RB. Not to mention the bad play calling most of the time. He is almost getting better in spite of the issues.
Click to expand...

I think of an offense like an engine. It could be a supercharged 800 horsepower beast, but if the smallest component like a bad belt or valve throws off the timing, it could sputter to 120hp or totally stall. A bad mechanic says the block must be cracked, replace the whole thing. A good mechanic replaces a belt and magically gets 800hp.

Now this offense needed more than a timing belt, but fixing the blocking assignments sure did a lot to allow Mills to develop and improve.
 
Brisco_County said:
I think of an offense like an engine. It could be a supercharged 800 horsepower beast, but if the smallest component like a bad belt or valve throws off the timing, it could sputter to 120hp or totally stall. A bad mechanic says the block must be cracked, replace the whole thing. A good mechanic replaces a belt and magically gets 800hp.

Now this offense needed more than a timing belt, but fixing the blocking assignments sure did a lot to allow Mills to develop and improve.
Click to expand...

They've been playing lesser defenses and that's the reason they've been doing better lately. They still avg 3.0 a carry before last Sunday. No offense is going to look good with a run game like this.

In short nothing on the OL has been fixed. They just happened to play a team whose DL had the Covid.
 
steelbtexan said:
They've been playing lesser defenses and that's the reason they've been doing better lately. They still avg 3.0 a carry before last Sunday. No offense is going to look good with a run game like this.

In short nothing on the OL has been fixed. They just happened to play a team whose DL had the Covid.
Click to expand...

Yep. But to their credit, they did take advantage of that. Quite well. LOL
 
thunderkyss said:
They looked like crap against the Jets & Seahawks. the two worst defenses we've played all year
Click to expand...

The 1st half they looked pretty good against the Seahawks.

I expect the 49ers game to look a lot like the Seahawks game. Would you consider that a setback if Mills has the same type of game he had against 49ers that he had against the Seahawks?
 
thunderkyss said:
When analyzing Mills, I'm just watching Mills & what he does in a given situation. I don't think he did anything in the Seahawks game that I would consider it a setback.
Click to expand...

So if he has a Seahawks type game instead of a Chargers type game you wont consider that a setback? I know I wont.
 
SnakeEyes said:
Interesting read. And Wilson and the QBR should not count. 100yrds basically passing and no INTs/TDs with 95 rushing...isn't great QB play. Sounds like a good impression of Vince Young. Better of a RB who can throw a bit.
Anyway...have a read.

deadspin.com

Deadspin | 2021 Rookie Quarterback Rankings: Have the Texans found their new quarterback?

Deadspin | 2021 Rookie Quarterback Rankings: Have the Texans found their new quarterback?
deadspin.com deadspin.com
Click to expand...
Well, they were the 2nd worst team in the league in 2020. Man can only do what he can with what he has to work with.

Hopefully this season doesn't screw him up too bad.
 


I agree, mostly. I don't think the 2022 starting job should be handed to Davis Mills. Competition should be brought in & he needs to earn the job every day.

But... shouldn't it be the same for Trevor Lawrence, Mac Jones, Justin Fields? Seriously, I know you want to give your 1st round pick every opportunity to become a starting QB in this league, but isn't healthy competition part of that?
 
thunderkyss said:


I agree, mostly. I don't think the 2022 starting job should be handed to Davis Mills. Competition should be brought in & he needs to earn the job every day.

But... shouldn't it be the same for Trevor Lawrence, Mac Jones, Justin Fields? Seriously, I know you want to give your 1st round pick every opportunity to become a starting QB in this league, but isn't healthy competition part of that?
Click to expand...

I believe in competition. But Mills should get the starters reps in TC next yr.
 
steelbtexan said:
I believe in competition. But Mills should get the starters reps in TC next yr.
Click to expand...
What kind of guy would you bring in to compete with him?

What kind of guy would you bring in to compete with Trey Lance or Justin Fields... or Zack Wilson?
 
Carr Bombed said:
LOL, Mills is a lock to start in 2022.. That beat writer doesn't know what He's talking about. I mean who else is going to start?
Click to expand...

Correct. Caserio needs all the draft capital and cap space he can save for the rebuild. He's looking for any reason to not spend it where it's not absolutely necessary. Mills just gave him a major reason to not spend it on QB.

Any competing QB candidate worth the time would be too costly.

Caserio's other incentive is the resume' bullet. If Mills proves to be a 3rd round diamond next season, who does that reflect best on?
 
thunderkyss said:
What kind of guy would you bring in to compete with him?

What kind of guy would you bring in to compete with Trey Lance or Justin Fields... or Zack Wilson?
Click to expand...

Unless the HC gets fired and the team that drafted a 1st round QB has a new HC and a clearly higher coveted prospect the 1st round QBs get every chance to succeed.

Last one I remember that had the short leash was Josh Rosen… because a new HC came in and inherited the #1 pick with Kyler Murray on the board.
 
TheRealJoker said:
Unless the HC gets fired and the team that drafted a 1st round QB has a new HC and a clearly higher coveted prospect the 1st round QBs get every chance to succeed.

Last one I remember that had the short leash was Josh Rosen… because a new HC came in and inherited the #1 pick with Kyler Murray on the board.
Click to expand...
I understand.

But, so many talented guys bust at the QB position, I’ve got to think there’s a better way.

If it makes sense to bring in competition for Davis Mills, then it makes sense to bring in competition for Justin Fields. Not necessarily someone to take his job, but to push him.

Maybe that’s what Dalton will do for him in the future.
 
thunderkyss said:
I understand.

But, so many talented guys bust at the QB position, I’ve got to think there’s a better way.

If it makes sense to bring in competition for Davis Mills, then it makes sense to bring in competition for Justin Fields. Not necessarily someone to take his job, but to push him.

Maybe that’s what Dalton will do for him in the future.
Click to expand...

As deeply as teams claim to dive into analytics nowadays there still seems to be some “superstition” about sticking with that 1st round QB uncontested.

Interestingly enough Ron Rivera, known mostly for not being “hip” to analytics was one of the few coaches willing to throw in the towel early on his team’s first round QB (Dwayne Haskins). But again, he wasn’t the coach when that pick was made.
 
thunderkyss said:
I understand.

But, so many talented guys bust at the QB position, I’ve got to think there’s a better way.

If it makes sense to bring in competition for Davis Mills, then it makes sense to bring in competition for Justin Fields. Not necessarily someone to take his job, but to push him.

Maybe that’s what Dalton will do for him in the future.
Click to expand...

Maybe this is just semantics but if the 'competition' can't take the job then is it actually competition?
 
Texans QB Davis Mills’ rookie season: ‘Seemed above his years’
Jan 8, 2022

Davis Mills’ unflappable personality, improving accuracy and growing understanding of the game largely defined his rookie season.

Mills' positives outweighed his negatives as he displayed a live arm, precise throws and, most importantly, a quick ability to process information and an ability to learn from his mistakes.

Heading into the final game of his first year in the NFL on Sunday against the AFC South champion Tennessee Titans, the Texans rookie quarterback has made a strong impression on his teammates and coaches.

“He’s always really seemed above his years,” Texans right offensive tackle Charlie Heck said. “He never really felt like a rookie, but he’s really taken strides. He really kind of commands the huddle. You see that confidence in him. You see how he is taking control of the offense and kind of being the leader that a quarterback really should be.

“You see him just making the offense slow down a little bit, calming down everybody. He’s just making everybody take a deep breath, calm down and let’s go. The next play, one play at a time. He talks to us in the huddle, we listen to him, so we believe in him. He’s leading the way right now.”

The strong-armed third-round draft pick from Stanford has outperformed fellow rookie quarterbacks drafted in the first round statistically, including Jacksonville Jaguars top overall pick Trevor Lawrence and the New York Jets’ second overall selection Zach Wilson. Mills has the second-highest rookie passer rating behind New England Patriots rookie quarterback Mac Jones.

Two games ago, Mills engineered an upset victory over the Los Angeles Chargers. He completed 20 of 27 passes for two touchdowns and no interceptions for the 4-12 Texans and registered a season-high 130.6 passer rating as he outdueled Pro Bowl quarterback Justin Herbert.

“He’s a rookie that’s learning a lot every week and a guy who keeps getting better,” said David Morris, Mills’ private quarterbacks coach who prepped Mills and Jones for the NFL draft. “When you look back at Davis' college career, he had limited starts due to injuries. He’s had incredible starts early in his career in the NFL. I’m not surprised because he’s really good and he’s going to continue to get better.
THE REST OF THE SEASON
 
CloakNNNdagger said:
Texans QB Davis Mills’ rookie season: ‘Seemed above his years’
Jan 8, 2022

Davis Mills’ unflappable personality, improving accuracy and growing understanding of the game largely defined his rookie season.

Mills' positives outweighed his negatives as he displayed a live arm, precise throws and, most importantly, a quick ability to process information and an ability to learn from his mistakes.

Heading into the final game of his first year in the NFL on Sunday against the AFC South champion Tennessee Titans, the Texans rookie quarterback has made a strong impression on his teammates and coaches.

“He’s always really seemed above his years,” Texans right offensive tackle Charlie Heck said. “He never really felt like a rookie, but he’s really taken strides. He really kind of commands the huddle. You see that confidence in him. You see how he is taking control of the offense and kind of being the leader that a quarterback really should be.

“You see him just making the offense slow down a little bit, calming down everybody. He’s just making everybody take a deep breath, calm down and let’s go. The next play, one play at a time. He talks to us in the huddle, we listen to him, so we believe in him. He’s leading the way right now.”

The strong-armed third-round draft pick from Stanford has outperformed fellow rookie quarterbacks drafted in the first round statistically, including Jacksonville Jaguars top overall pick Trevor Lawrence and the New York Jets’ second overall selection Zach Wilson. Mills has the second-highest rookie passer rating behind New England Patriots rookie quarterback Mac Jones.

Two games ago, Mills engineered an upset victory over the Los Angeles Chargers. He completed 20 of 27 passes for two touchdowns and no interceptions for the 4-12 Texans and registered a season-high 130.6 passer rating as he outdueled Pro Bowl quarterback Justin Herbert.

“He’s a rookie that’s learning a lot every week and a guy who keeps getting better,” said David Morris, Mills’ private quarterbacks coach who prepped Mills and Jones for the NFL draft. “When you look back at Davis' college career, he had limited starts due to injuries. He’s had incredible starts early in his career in the NFL. I’m not surprised because he’s really good and he’s going to continue to get better.
THE REST OF THE SEASON
Click to expand...
Let's hope he can continue to progress - I think he can, and even moreso if he can get some improved play around him.
 
I believe Mills has shown enough growth this season, that I could’ve easily seen him making a strong impact at Stanford this year…..and probably being the top QB coming into the 2022 NFL Draft.

That said, his growth came with a very limited Texans team that supported him with a questionable OL, no running game, and a predictable gameplan for defenses. I think Mills growth for next season is unlimited provided Caserio gives him an improved OL, running game, and an open playbook so defenses don’t come into games prepared to blitz. If this is accomplished….I wouldn’t be surprised to see Mills elevate his production to Mac Jones type of numbers in 2022. Depending on how Caserio handles the draft and free agency may determine if Mills surpasses Jones come 2023 or 2024.

I’ve got the same feeling about Mills that I had for Watson (the QB). I only hope that the team finally has an eye for putting the right talent around him…..something they failed horribly at for Watson.
 
CloakNNNdagger said:
Texans QB Davis Mills’ rookie season: ‘Seemed above his years’
Jan 8, 2022

Davis Mills’ unflappable personality, improving accuracy and growing understanding of the game largely defined his rookie season.

Mills' positives outweighed his negatives as he displayed a live arm, precise throws and, most importantly, a quick ability to process information and an ability to learn from his mistakes.

Heading into the final game of his first year in the NFL on Sunday against the AFC South champion Tennessee Titans, the Texans rookie quarterback has made a strong impression on his teammates and coaches.

“He’s always really seemed above his years,” Texans right offensive tackle Charlie Heck said. “He never really felt like a rookie, but he’s really taken strides. He really kind of commands the huddle. You see that confidence in him. You see how he is taking control of the offense and kind of being the leader that a quarterback really should be.

“You see him just making the offense slow down a little bit, calming down everybody. He’s just making everybody take a deep breath, calm down and let’s go. The next play, one play at a time. He talks to us in the huddle, we listen to him, so we believe in him. He’s leading the way right now.”

The strong-armed third-round draft pick from Stanford has outperformed fellow rookie quarterbacks drafted in the first round statistically, including Jacksonville Jaguars top overall pick Trevor Lawrence and the New York Jets’ second overall selection Zach Wilson. Mills has the second-highest rookie passer rating behind New England Patriots rookie quarterback Mac Jones.

Two games ago, Mills engineered an upset victory over the Los Angeles Chargers. He completed 20 of 27 passes for two touchdowns and no interceptions for the 4-12 Texans and registered a season-high 130.6 passer rating as he outdueled Pro Bowl quarterback Justin Herbert.

“He’s a rookie that’s learning a lot every week and a guy who keeps getting better,” said David Morris, Mills’ private quarterbacks coach who prepped Mills and Jones for the NFL draft. “When you look back at Davis' college career, he had limited starts due to injuries. He’s had incredible starts early in his career in the NFL. I’m not surprised because he’s really good and he’s going to continue to get better.
THE REST OF THE SEASON
Click to expand...
For the season, Mills is the second leading rookie QB behind Mac Jones. What caught my attention was the paragraph stating that, over the past month, Mills is the leading rookie QB. Over this time his completion percentage is 68.1, his yards per pass attempt is 6.9 and his passer rating is 96.2. And he has two wins.

Early in the season the opinion was expressed that we needed to see improvement in Mills play as the season progressed. I think we've seen that.
 
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