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Davis Mills is a poor man's...

Thorn

Dirty Old Man
So what would you need to see from Davis Mills to name him the Texans franchise QB?
To be able to say he's the guy, and now we just need to find a decent backup, Mills will need to be in the top 10 QBs in the league, as far as just the stats show. How many games we win is up to his supporting cast and most especially the defense. Christ, we had Mr. Massage leading the league in a lot of stats and still only had four wins to show for it.
 

TexansBull

Hall of Fame
Can I express my opinion without you getting butt hurt about it? Thanks.
If you can't handle reality, that's on you.
It’s not a reality though. It’s opinion. You said as much.

Texans have more going for them then they had last year. That puts them on an expected trajectory for a win total closer to 9 games than 4 games.

And if someone wants to huff and puff and be dramatic about thinking the Texans can win 9 games or close to it go ahead.

I don’t care.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
And if someone wants to huff and puff and be dramatic about thinking the Texans can win 9 games or close to it go ahead.

I don’t care.
Neither do I. But this is supposed to be about Mills. Winning 9 games 12 games doesn’t say much about Davis Mills, at least not with what we know about this team now.

Tannehill was in the AFCCG, Watson won 4 games.
 

Texansphan

Hall of Fame
Agreed, check out the mock that I just posted. I wouldn't count on these guys to be on par with the Bengals play makers as rookies. They would be an upgrade over what Mills had to work with last yr.
It is not unreasonable to think most of the rooks will improve as the season progresses.
I remember JJs first season - he was already okay at the start of the season but by the playoffs, he was already borderline elite.
It would be very exciting to see at least one of our new guys look special by then.
 

TexansBull

Hall of Fame
But this is supposed to be about Mills. Winning 9 games 12 games doesn’t say much about Davis Mills, at least not with what we know about this team now.
It is. Or was. See the below posts. And winning 9 games says a lot about a QB and team. It is something that either a QB is winning with the team or the team is winning in spite of the QB.

If Mills doesn't break out this year, people will be calling for his head.
What’s considered “break out”?

remember the team around him will only be marginally better. 7 wins is probably on the high side
I'm thinking breakout territory should be around 9 wins.
That should get most of the fans buzzing.
 

The Pencil Neck

Hall of Fame
OK. So here are some numbers

Over the 11 games he started, Mills completed about 68.7% of his passes for about 6.9 yards per attempt and 4% touchdowns/attempt and 2% interceptions/attempt. He was also sacked 2.5 times a game for a loss of almost 17 yards per game.

Over the last 5 games he started, Mills completed about 68.5% of his passes for about 7.4 yards per attempt, with 5.2% touchdowns/attempt and 1.1% interceptions/attempt. He was sacked 1.8 times per game for about 12 yards per game.

I want to see him improve.

So I'd like him to raise his completion percentage to 70%. Maybe 7.7 yards per attempt, 5.8% touchdowns/attempt, and ~1% interceptions/attempt.

Over 17 games and about 30 attempts per game that puts him around 357/510 for 3927 yards, 29 TDs and 5 interceptions. Looking at it like that, I wouldn't mind a few more interceptions.

So my hope is that he throws for about 4000 yards with 25-30 TDs and around 7-8 interceptions, but I'm open to negotiation.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
OK. So here are some numbers

Over the 11 games he started, Mills completed about 68.7% of his passes for about 6.9 yards per attempt and 4% touchdowns/attempt and 2% interceptions/attempt. He was also sacked 2.5 times a game for a loss of almost 17 yards per game.

Over the last 5 games he started, Mills completed about 68.5% of his passes for about 7.4 yards per attempt, with 5.2% touchdowns/attempt and 1.1% interceptions/attempt. He was sacked 1.8 times per game for about 12 yards per game.

I want to see him improve.

So I'd like him to raise his completion percentage to 70%. Maybe 7.7 yards per attempt, 5.8% touchdowns/attempt, and ~1% interceptions/attempt.

Over 17 games and about 30 attempts per game that puts him around 357/510 for 3927 yards, 29 TDs and 5 interceptions. Looking at it like that, I wouldn't mind a few more interceptions.

So my hope is that he throws for about 4000 yards with 25-30 TDs and around 7-8 interceptions, but I'm open to negotiation.
That's well within the top 10 QBs with those. kinds of numbers.
 

The Pencil Neck

Hall of Fame
That's well within the top 10 QBs with those. kinds of numbers.
The 70% mark is probably WAY too high because that would put him up in the top 2, but he's already at almost 69%... so... it might be do-able. 4000 yards would have finished up 11th this year, 29 TDs would have put him at 10th. The interception rate is also a little on the aggressive side, but he was already at a fairly acceptable interception rate so it would be nice if he got even better.

Overall, with those numbers would have him flirting with top 10, maybe sneaking into it. And if he's going to be a Franchise guy, that's the kind of improvement I'd hope to see.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
I mean, technically, no matter who you are, that's all you ever have.

We could win 13 games next year with Mills as our QB but going into 2023, all we'll really have is a lot of hope.
I don't really need to see anything from Mills but more consistency.

I'm sold, for now.

Peyton Manning or Phillip Rivers would have to be in the next draft before I think about moving on.

Now if he flips & start acting like Case Keenum, he's out.

But 2022 I want consistent good decisions. Take shots when they fit. Take what the defense gives you when it makes sense. Give up on a play before you get in trouble.

I'm treating him like a 1st round QB until he proves I shouldn't
 

TexansBull

Hall of Fame
Thoughts?

It makes me feel like we have an extra first pick this year and walking away with the best QB pick of this years draft.

He is going to be NFL ready day 1 too.

Caserio turned a 3 round pick into a first.

The pick could still be a bust though.
 

Texansphan

Hall of Fame
It makes me feel like we have an extra first pick this year and walking away with the best QB pick of this years draft.

He is going to be NFL ready day 1 too.

Caserio turned a 3 round pick into a first.

The pick could still be a bust though.
I hope not, but here is why I don't think that will happen.
Last season for Texans, he was not just a rookie, but green - with only 14 college starts under his belt.
Still, he adjusted quickly after an expected bumpy start to finish the season looking better as the season progressed.
His composure in the pocket was reassuring to see and showed the game was slowing down for him which is a big factor for why we saw that continuous improvement.
I see no reason why he should regress - especially when we consider he is going to get some help with the quality of play around him.
That is assuming the running game is upgraded as well as his oline and the receiving corp and it should only take one extra nice piece at each of those positions to make that happen.
I also expect that a more experienced HC will also smooth out his path considerably.
 

Jack Burton

Veteran
I hope not, but here is why I don't think that will happen.
Last season for Texans, he was not just a rookie, but green - with only 14 college starts under his belt.
Still, he adjusted quickly after an expected bumpy start to finish the season looking better as the season progressed.
His composure in the pocket was reassuring to see and showed the game was slowing down for him which is a big factor for why we saw that continuous improvement.
I see no reason why he should regress - especially when we consider he is going to get some help with the quality of play around him.
That is assuming the running game is upgraded as well as his oline and the receiving corp and it should only take one extra nice piece at each of those positions to make that happen.
I also expect that a more experienced HC will also smooth out his path considerably.
It’s why HOU absolutely must get him a new RB and preferably another WR/TE. I don’t care which.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
I hope not, but here is why I don't think that will happen.
Last season for Texans, he was not just a rookie, but green - with only 14 college starts under his belt.
Still, he adjusted quickly after an expected bumpy start to finish the season looking better as the season progressed.
His composure in the pocket was reassuring to see and showed the game was slowing down for him which is a big factor for why we saw that continuous improvement.
I see no reason why he should regress - especially when we consider he is going to get some help with the quality of play around him.
That is assuming the running game is upgraded as well as his oline and the receiving corp and it should only take one extra nice piece at each of those positions to make that happen.
I also expect that a more experienced HC will also smooth out his path considerably.
Does anybody take into account the quality of the defenses he faced the 1st four games vs the last 5 games? I think that had alot to do with why Mills looked better.
 

TexansBull

Hall of Fame
I hope not, but here is why I don't think that will happen.
Last season for Texans, he was not just a rookie, but green - with only 14 college starts under his belt.
Still, he adjusted quickly after an expected bumpy start to finish the season looking better as the season progressed.
His composure in the pocket was reassuring to see and showed the game was slowing down for him which is a big factor for why we saw that continuous improvement.
I see no reason why he should regress - especially when we consider he is going to get some help with the quality of play around him.
That is assuming the running game is upgraded as well as his oline and the receiving corp and it should only take one extra nice piece at each of those positions to make that happen.
I also expect that a more experienced HC will also smooth out his path considerably.
I mean bust in terms of being a 1st round draft pick and not panning out like other first round draft picks. Since he is only a third it doesn’t matter as much.

I can’t see the Texans luck being that we went from one franchise QB, dealing with that disaster and now being lucky enough to find another.

I personally feel if he doesn’t show he is capable of playing at a high level than it is time to move on.

Mahomes and Herbert are the best QBs we play this year. Then Wilson and Watson. I don’t expect him to look better than those four in year two.

He needs to keep up or outplay Tannehill, Prescott, Carr, Ryan and Tua. If he is playing at their level in year two that would be a great improvement and buy him another year. That means as the team gets better he will too.

The other QBs he needs to look better. Whoever they are. Fields and the guy in Jacksonville.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
Thoughts?

I'm not knocking Mills. He's done a good job since he started playing.

The biggest sign of his first-round talent came as the season wore on, with Mills continually improving, especially once he won the starting role. Through the final five games, he completed 117 of 171 passes for 1,258 yards with nine touchdowns and just two interceptions.
I just don't follow this logic. You can't compare Davis Mills final five games in the NFL to the guys in the 2022 draft's 12 CFB games. It just don't work that way.

For all we know, What if that was Carson Strong playing for the Texans in 2021 & Pep was able to keep his head straight & he performed the same. Would we be saying Carson Strong deserves to be a 1st round pick in the 2022 draft?

I've already stated, I would treat Davis Mills just like the Patriots are going to treat Mac Jones. I don't think Mac Jones is any more talented than Mills, or Strong. But both Mills & Jones have played well enough in the NFL for me to say, QB is off my list unless I'm blown away by someone else.
 

OptimisticTexan

2022 Rebuilding Block 2 / Go Texans
I mean bust in terms of being a 1st round draft pick and not panning out like other first round draft picks. Since he is only a third it doesn’t matter as much.

I can’t see the Texans luck being that we went from one franchise QB, dealing with that disaster and now being lucky enough to find another.

I personally feel if he doesn’t show he is capable of playing at a high level than it is time to move on.

Mahomes and Herbert are the best QBs we play this year. Then Wilson and Watson. I don’t expect him to look better than those four in year two.

He needs to keep up or outplay Tannehill, Prescott, Carr, Ryan and Tua. If he is playing at their level in year two that would be a great improvement and buy him another year. That means as the team gets better he will too.

The other QBs he needs to look better. Whoever they are. Fields and the guy in Jacksonville.
The good….he jumped the Herbert hurdle last season.
 

SnakeEyes

Under NRG
Mills is going to be ok. He will be better next year than he was last season. The key things he showed by the end of last year where
- Short memory of bad plays (a plus)
- Strong arm
-Can make every throw
-Can read a D and his ability to do it is getting better
-Great deep passer PFF backs that up
- Spacial awareness (he can get out of trouble)
-Issues at times with throwing into a tight window
-Smart, how smart? He will be learning a new system this year
 


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