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Brock Osweiler agrees to 4 year 72 million
- Thread starter DBCooper
- Start date
- Status
Texian
Hall of Fame
CEILING
Carson Wentz coming out of college
Jared Goff coming out of college
Brock Osweiller coming out of college
FLOOR
This another Bob McNair Ed Reed decision.
The other error in judgement and bad decision was after 2 years of disasters finding a QB, McNair should've fired OB and not pay $72MM for the 4 best FA QB available.
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This is the perfect post.
McNair is a coldhearted businessman 1st and foremost and everything from the drafting of HWNSNBM to the hiring of his yes/frontman to the Os signing was/is a business 1st decision. Winning be damned.
I agree with you, but how does all of this knowledge in the Texans braintrust produce drafts like the 2013 and 2014 drafts?
I hope/think you may be wrong about Os.
For the record I dont trust gingers. If I'm McNair especially with my billion $$$$ product.
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
That's a very nice WAG but we have no support for any McNair involvement more than him telling Smith & OB "y'all stop f'king around and find a franchise QB." He prioritized the position. Anything beyond that is rank speculation unless new info becomes available. That's the bottom line.
sandman
Brexit Advisor
Because getting the guy who spend his entire 4 years in the NFL learning from Manning, going to nine playoff games and two Super Bowls, and getting a half season of playing time in their last Super Bowl run has absolutely nothing to do with winning.
We dont know if OS is the man or not, we hope he is the man. BTW, I'm in favor of the OS signing.
I was talking about the Texans decade of mediocrity at best.
Carry on
Just curious. How do you tie Osweiler to McNair?
As far as I know, McNair just said, "Stop f'kn around & get a QB."
Ed Reed, yeah I think Andre brought his name up & McNair ran with it.
But Osweiler, sounds like that was a decision made by O'Brien & Rick Smith. They could have packaged this year's draft, next year's draft, & players on expiring contracts, Cushing, Graham, Foster, throw in Mercilus or whatever to get the 1st pick overall & satisfied McNair's request.
Why do you think McNair pushed Osweiler?
What's it going to take for that coldhearted businessman to realize nothing sells like a winning team? New England was nothing... Indy was nothing.... started winning & they're making money hand over fist.
Yeah, McNair is making money, but wouldn't it stand to reason he'd make more if this was a winning club?
sandman
Brexit Advisor
I was simply quoting you. You gave three very specific examples of business (i.e.- making money) being the bottom line with McNair and "winning be damned". The Os signing was one of those three examples. Not sure how you are in favor of it if it was done with a "winning be damned" purpose only to put money in McNair's pockets.
Nope, not with the socialist way the NFL is set up.
I've been noodling over amateur film study for a bit and I don't think you can glean much from it other than seeing some physical traits, such as mechanics and obvious miscues.
Without having a play chart of the play called and knowledge of the responsibilities of a particular player for that particular play, you're really just guessing about who blew a coverage, ran the wrong route, etc. At least that's how I see it.
Without having a play chart of the play called and knowledge of the responsibilities of a particular player for that particular play, you're really just guessing about who blew a coverage, ran the wrong route, etc. At least that's how I see it.
From everything I've read and heard, OB liked Os and studied him thoroughly, did his due diligence as far as vetting him and told Smith and McNair that this is the guy he wants. Maybe OB is like me and values draft picks much more than McNair's money.
Not going to derail this thread anymore, obviously you're a fan of the way McNair goes about his business, I'm not and neither one of our opinions are likely to change.
Lets get back to talking about the pro's and cons of the Os signing and his strengths and weaknesses.
More likely when McNair witnessed the 30-0 debacle he told Smith/BOB to find a QB and this is who they came up with.
From everything I've read and heard, OB liked Os and studied him thoroughly, did his due diligence as far as vetting him and told Smith and McNair that this is the guy he wants. Maybe OB is like me and values draft picks much more than McNair's money.
On a side note, Os' 1st 7 games are remarkably similar to Joe Montana's with the biggest disparity being Joe was 2-5 and Os was 5-2. I don't remember seeing that mentioned anywhere.
You don't think New England & Indy are making more money than Jacksonville?
TexansSeminole
Hall of Fame
What are people's statistical expectations in year 1 for Osweiler? Let's assume we add a rookie receiver who contributes, but doesn't have a breakout year.
Last year with 4 QBs we had 4,051 yards and 28 TDs with 12 interceptions. Only 6.6 yards per attempt and 58% completion percentage. We allowed 36 sacks.
28 TDs and 12 INTs would be a wonderful line for Osweiler in his first full year as a starter. I'd like to see him improve our 6.6 average from last year and the 58% completion percentage.
Last year with 4 QBs we had 4,051 yards and 28 TDs with 12 interceptions. Only 6.6 yards per attempt and 58% completion percentage. We allowed 36 sacks.
28 TDs and 12 INTs would be a wonderful line for Osweiler in his first full year as a starter. I'd like to see him improve our 6.6 average from last year and the 58% completion percentage.
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That's the way I see it. & I don't really blame OB/Smith. There's so many things you don't know about how these guys are going to react to life in the NFL. All those questions have been answered with Osweiler & he's still so raw that you don't have a Brian Hoyer PTSD situation.
But... McNair's a better man than me. I wouldn't have let O'Brien make this decision after the choices he's made in this arena already.
sandman
Brexit Advisor
I don't agree with you therefore I am a fan of the way McNair goes about his business. Whatever.
You are right, we are not going to change each other's opinion on the matter. Apparently we are not going to hold ourselves accountable for being conveniently duplicitous.
You can't be in favor of both it being a good move by McNair and it being all about the Benjamins. But you know that.
Pro - He isn't Hoyer
Con - He isn't Wentz
That pretty much sums it up.
Only slightly due to merchandise/Parking/concessions. TV/Gate revenue is split up eaqully.
And it costs more in marketing to get more in merchandise sales. McNair has a sold out crowd every week so he pockets this $$$$. The Jags owner makes about the same, look at the Jags cap space.
Lets get back to talking about OS and not about McNair and not about the way he makes his $$$$. Obviously he's better at making $$$$ than he is at putting a successful product on the field.
Texian
Hall of Fame
After the atrocious playoff game along with history of the circus play of QBs throughout the season you know McNair had a burr under his saddle. In much the way he had a burr under his saddle on his flight home from JAX the night before he fired Kubiak. Since that playoff loss McNair has been singing at the top his voice that QB was HIS top priority. McNair went with the very first option he thought would have an immediate fix and upgrade his QB Circus of the last 3 years (that bar is set very low) without any consideration to superior play in future years. This is part of the .433 McNair behavioral pattern.
Clearer thinking, a higher commitment to excellence and the correct action to take would've been to fire the people responsible for QB Circus. Desperate people resort to desperate actions. Common sense says O'Brien and Smith should feel threatened by calamity of QB play over the last two years. They are not interested in any long term fix regardless of how excellent it could be. The only long term O'Brien and Smith are interested in is their job security and their job security rest with "Fix it Now." (not later) At this point, right now, O'Brien and Smith are more interested in having a job next year than any long term health of the Houston Texans. So McNair has cast his lot, once again, with a couple of guys who have proven they are pretty good at developing a QB Circus.
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Lets hope they get lucky and hit on Os.
Texian
Hall of Fame
Yes McNair is definitely the blind squirrel hoping to find a nut. And any nut would do, McNair would settle for a peanut. His circus cotton candy has been a terrible flop.
Good question. I haven't really given it much thought.
Lots of TDs, few INTs, more YPA, better completion percentage... all those things would be nice. However, I'm expecting a lot out of the run game as well. Hopefully we won't have to throw all that much.
I'll have to think on this for a minute.
Ok, yeah... we need to get back on Os, but... so now, according to this post, McNair's business move don't affect the bottom line? At least not enough to make a difference?
The Pencil Neck
Hall of Fame
How does it happen to other teams as well?
There are many ways a bad draft can happen. From miscommunication between various groups to taking risks on something they see that they think they can fix or that won't be a problem. It can be that someone doesn't foresee a personality conflict or they get blinded by a particular measurable. A position coach or coordinator may say "we need a guy like X" and then the scouts focus on those traits thinking that's what is going to work. When you look at someone who's supposed to be a good coach like a Chip Kelly and you give them the responsibility of finding guys to fit their system, they can still screw up and blow it.
And that's a BIG part of my point.
If people who know that much can swing and miss, it's pure fancy to think that someone who spends only a few hundred hours watching tape without the same knowledge base can do better.
sandman
Brexit Advisor
They threw a lot last year because playing from behind and no run game. I'm not so concerned with yards or a TD:INT ratio target as much as I am with completion percentage and YPA. Assuming they have correctly addressed the run game this off season.
65% completions (Os at 62% in 2015) and 7.5 YPA (Os at 7.1 in 2015) gets him into the top 12 QB's based on 2015 stats. Those are not unrealistic expectations at all.
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
And there is the flaw in the "McNair is making money so doesn't care about producing on the field" gang.
Cap space has absolutely nothing to do with how much money a franchise is making
TexansSeminole
Hall of Fame
We ran the ball among the most in the NFL last season, I wouldn't expect that number to go up. Hopefully, it's more effective.
Texian
Hall of Fame
I think you're putting to much confidence in those "who know that much." Maybe they don't know as much as many folks think or what they know is not necessarily correct. They're human beings prone to error. Everyone thought hiring Chip Kelly as a Head Coach was a blockbuster move. If the Eagles had dug a little deeper and had done more homework they would know that Kelly comes from a shallow coaching tree and his expertise was limited and focused on Offense and that was limited in scope to an up tempo spread system. Was it sexy, yeah, was it fun to watch? You bet. But that's about all you get with Kelly. Other phases of the game he lacks. Most folks think you can't go wrong hiring a Belichick assistant. Where they swing and miss is they don't understand Belichick's system and the person they're hiring is an analyst and not a manager or a leader per se.
The Pencil Neck
Hall of Fame
I'm just going to take a stab and say: 4500 yards, 30 TDs and 10 interceptions. I'm expect ypa to be over 7 and completion percentage to be over 60%.
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
If by slightly you mean a variation between losing $3.5 mil and making $250 mil.
Another place where your perception doesn't survive encounter with facts.
Link
The Pencil Neck
Hall of Fame
And I think you're putting too much confidence in people who don't know that much.
Texian
Hall of Fame
There in lies the rub, no matter how bad MCNair and Texans screw up McNair is going to make a boat load of money every year. Only when the natives (fans) get restless and threaten a mutiny or McNair has a hissy fit will changes be made.
If that ends up being his numbers, I expect to see DHop set the NFL record for yards in a season. That would be a statistical dream for the Texans and Os.
I don't really care what his stats look like as long as I see good command of the offense and good decision making from Os. I'd like to see 2:1 TD/INT and I'm good with your YPA and Comp%. I'll take a game manager Tom Brady-esque and the wins that would come from that over gaudy individual stats.
Texian
Hall of Fame
It's not that he doesn't care, it's that he doesn't know how.
And most importantly he's not going to be the one losing us games like that other guy.
First, I agree my last sentence didn't convey the meaning I intended. My intent was to say, from a business-type, common sense standpoint, spending F/A money is more "recoverable" than spending two, three years worth of high draft picks. The money will be replaced by salary cap increases. Replacing high draft picks will cost quality players. And that's IF you can find a trading partner.
Second, getting the F/A with the size and arm strength you want PLUS positive NFL experience is the logical decision. Why waste two years hoping a rookie develops when you have a free agent who can step in and function right now because he has shown he can do it at the NFL level and against top competition. To put it simply, most of the time in business, resume trumps transcript.
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
steelbtexan says he doesn't care.
But seems to be learning and improving every year
The Pencil Neck
Hall of Fame
Those are actually pretty close to his numbers from last year extended to a full season, except with the TDs increased slightly and his INTs decreased slightly. I upped his attempts just a little to bring it equal to the number of attempts the Texans made last year.
Didn't read the link but tell me how Tampa Bay under both the Culverhouse/Glazer regimes have had one of the most profitable franchises and their stands are never full?
ChampionTexan
Hall of Fame
Well, clearly the natives haven't shown any widespread tendency to get restless to this point, but it sounds like McNair did throw a hissy fit and issue the edict for a new QB. What do you suppose could have driven him to do that?
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
Do your own research on rabbit holes.
You said only slightly vary. That is wrong. Lots of room in between $80 and $250 to motivate McNair.
Lets get back to talking about Os.
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