The Texans fired Bill O'Brien now? Barnwell on the strange timing, O'Brien's rocky tenure and Houston's future
5:40 PM CT
Bill Barnwell ESPN Staff Writer
Monday's news that
the Houston Texans were firing head coach/general manager Bill O'Brien after an 0-4 start was somehow simultaneously stunning and not surprising at all. I've been skeptical of O'Brien's decision-making since he
assumed personnel power in 2019, with move after move seemingly betraying either a lack of long-term vision or a failure to understand how the rest of the NFL values players. I can understand why Texans ownership would evaluate those moves and plan to find a solution to replace O'Brien as the team's general manager in the years to come.
Firing O'Brien the coach right now, though, makes absolutely no sense. The Texans are 0-4 and flailing in the AFC South, but they've played the league's toughest schedule, with games against the
Chiefs,
Ravens and
Steelers before a
loss on Sunday to the Vikings. Losing to the previously winless Vikings obviously isn't anything great, but O'Brien had won four division titles in his prior five seasons with the organization. Four losses against mostly excellent competition shouldn't be enough to drastically steer the organizational ship in the opposite direction and start a brand-new direction. It makes you wonder how much ownership was actually paying attention before this slow start.
Let's split the decision across O'Brien's two different roles, because I look at each differently:
Firing Bill O'Brien the GM
How much could really have changed between now and the end of August? Sure, O'Brien's decision to trade away wide receiver
DeAndre Hopkins for running back
David Johnson and a second-round pick doesn't look great, but it
looked bad in March when ownership presumably signed off on the idea of trading away the team's star player. Other trade acquisitions such as running back
Duke Johnson and cornerback
Gareon Conley have been injured. The overpays for low-ceiling free agents such as wideout
Randall Cobb and safety
Eric Murray haven't gone well -- the Texans were
interested in free agent Earl Thomas to replace Murray in the starting lineup, with
Justin Reid playing more strong safety, before O'Brien's players reportedly talked him out of the move -- but those were decisions that
looked awful at the time.
O'Brien paid over the odds to lock up young core pieces including quarterback
Deshaun Watson, offensive tackle
Laremy Tunsil and linebacker
Zach Cunningham,
handing out contracts that were more generous than market value, but that's also not a fireable offense. Under any circumstances, the level of oversight from Texans ownership is baffling. There was a time to pull the reins back on O'Brien, but it was a while ago. His 2019 moves suggested he was overmatched when it came to trades and contract negotiations. Letting him get a second offseason in charge of personnel decisions was the mistake ownership made.
OK, so, with the Texans spending a league-high $249.3 million on players this season while starting 0-4, why not correct that mistake as early as possible and get O'Brien out of the GM chair? For one, they can't go out and get an immediate replacement. Early reports suggest Houston will turn things over to former Patriots chaplain Jack Easterby, who was
brought by O'Brien to Houston in 2019 and became vice president of football operations in 2020. Pretty much every bad move O'Brien has made over the past two years has come with Easterby in the picture, so the idea that Easterby is somehow going to fix the problems left with this organization after O'Brien's departure seems curious.
Furthermore, while the Texans have Watson and several other promising young players, this is going to be one of the least appealing jobs in the league. The Texans didn't have their first- or second-round picks in 2018 after trading for Watson and dumping
Brock Osweiler's contract. They sent away 2020 first- and second-round selections as part of the trades for Tunsil and wide receiver
Brandin Cooks, and while they got one back in the Hopkins deal, they don't have their first- or second-round choices in 2021.
Any general manager who takes this job is going to be feeling the pinch of those missing picks and won't get another crack at a high pick until 2022. Ownership just committed a ton of money to contracts, meaning the Texans aren't likely to be aggressive in free agency over the next year or two. Plus, while some would-be general managers might be interested if they can get time to retool the roster and restock the draft capital, Houston has been wildly erratic with its timelines. Since owner Cal McNair took control after the death of his father in 2018, he has
fired general manager Brian Gaine after winning a division title in his only year on the job, let O'Brien reshape the organization to his liking, then fired the former Penn State coach after an 0-4 start. Why would any promising executive with options elsewhere want to take on this role?
Bill O'Brien finished his tenure in Houston with a 52-48 regular-season record and two playoff wins -- one in 2016, and another in 2019.
In reality, when the Texans let O'Brien trade away a boatload of draft picks to acquire Tunsil and moved on from Hopkins, they should have committed themselves to seeing the O'Brien experiment through until the end of 2021. That would have been the right time to reevaluate things, and if the Texans were going to move on from their coach/GM at that point, they could hire someone with a fully stocked closet of draft picks and the chance to get out from under several of O'Brien's questionable contracts.
Firing O'Brien now acknowledges that the Texans were wrong to give him that sort of power, but it doesn't do anything to alleviate the problems. A more realistic path would have been to use the veto power of ownership to block anything particularly egregious O'Brien had planned and tell him he was going to need to win with the roster he spent months building. That might not have gone over well -- and it's possible O'Brien wasn't willing to work as a coach if he didn't have full power as general manager -- but the team made this bed for itself over the past two years. An 0-4 start shouldn't have been what made the Texans realize their mistake.
Firing Bill O'Brien the head coach
Let's add offensive playcaller to his list of duties after reports that O'Brien took over in Week 4. At times, though, his solution for any plan seemed to be rubbing more
Bill on it and hoping it fixed the problem, which seemed ill-advised given that O'Brien had
ceded playcalling duties to Tim Kelly in only February.
Leave O'Brien the general manager aside, though, and think strictly about the coaching side of things. Can you really justify this move? O'Brien took over a 2-14 team with
Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback and posted five winning seasons in six years at the helm. The only losing season he had was when Watson tore his ACL in 2017. The Texans were 52-48 over O'Brien's six-plus years at the helm, but they won four division titles in five years.
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