Big questions: A falling prospect, plus a debate at OT
How far could Oregon defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux drop?
Miller: One year ago, as we looked ahead to this draft class, the Oregon pass-rusher was in the mix to be the No. 1 overall prospect. Now, a month from the start of Round 1, Thibodeaux is one of the most polarizing prospects in the class. Following a breakout true freshman season in 2019 in which he posted nine sacks, he struggled through a pandemic-shortened 2020 and had just three sacks in seven games -- a stat his supporters would point to as productive considering the attention opposing offensive lines were giving him. The concerns began last season, however, when Thibodeaux left the Ducks' Week 1 game in a walking boot.
Now, as scouts and general managers assemble their final rankings, Thibodeaux is falling in the eyes of NFL teams as opposed to competing to be the No. 1 pick. Here's what I know about the reasons behind his drop:
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Production: Thibodeaux didn't show the quickness and burst expected on his way to seven sacks and 12 tackles for loss -- good numbers, but not those expected of a player deemed a front-runner for the No. 1 pick. Beyond those numbers, scouts and front-office execs with whom I've spoken have praised his talent but consistently questioned his motor. "Lack of fire" is not the type of label prospects want.
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Interviews: Reporting on prospects' interviews with NFL teams is always tough because I want to be fair to the player, which is why it's important to not report information gleaned from a single source. More than half a dozen scouts have told me that Thibodeaux did not impress in interviews with their teams. The word consistently used to describe his interviews is "poor." That's a red flag, especially for teams looking to use a premium pick.
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Injury: Thibodeaux sprained his ankle in September, an injury that takes time to heal. One scout charged with evaluating Thibodeaux, however, thought that he was timid after the injury and said that those within the Oregon program agreed.
Of course, the above concerns could be for naught, as it takes only one team to love a prospect.
The Lions or Texans could take Thibodeaux at No. 2 or 3, but the word from sources in the league is that Thibodeaux is expected to be drafted outside the top five picks and could even be selected outside the top 10.
Looking at the draft order, if the Seahawks (No. 9) and Jets (No. 10) don't select Thibodeaux, he could slide further, as Washington, Minnesota,
Houston and Baltimore are not expected to select pass-rushers at picks Nos. 11-14. A lot can change once the draft starts and panic sets in, but one month out it's not unrealistic to think Thibodeaux could be on the board for the Eagles at No. 15.
Who will be the first offensive tackle selected: Ikem Ekwonu or Evan Neal?
Reid: This is a deep tackle class, with potentially four going in the top 20 picks, but Ekwonu and Neal are in a tier by themselves. Opinions are mixed across the league, however, on who is the top guy.
Having scouted both up close on multiple occasions last season, each is as good as advertised. At 6-foot-4, 320 pounds, Ekwonu is an explosive player who played both guard and tackle at NC State. He turned into a stalwart at left tackle over the past two seasons, showing outstanding play strength and nastiness when finishing blocks. The area that scouts want to see him improve is his over-aggressiveness in pass sets, which leads to him giving up inside pressure.
The 6-foot-7, 337-pound Neal has one of the most impressive frames that you will see for a player at the position. Nimble for his size, his physical tools stand out on tape, but it's his positional flexibility that has most helped his game. Neal began his career at right guard before transitioning to right tackle and ending his junior season at left tackle. Where could he improve? Balance and consistently finishing are the two elements that have come up most when asking scouts.
The clock for Ekwonu and Neal starts with the Texans at No. 3, but there isn't yet a consensus on which player Houston will take. Could Neal's experience playing against SEC opponents every week win out? Here's what an area scout told me at Alabama's pro day earlier this week: "I like Neal a lot," he said. "The fact that he's done it at a high level in the SEC and played tackle on both sides makes me like him more."
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How good is this running back class? Let's find their best fits
Breece Hall, Iowa State
What he does best: Everything. Hall is a classic three-down back with instant NFL starter ability. Throughout his Iowa State career, he showed both inside and outside vision, speed to break away on chunk plays and the hands to impress in the passing game. His combination of size (5-11, 217) and speed (4.39-second 40-yard dash) to wow teams with his ability to step in as a true featured back.
Where he could fit: The end of Round 1 is Hall's sweet spot. The Bills (No. 25 overall) could definitely look for a do-it-all back with speed. The same goes for the Buccaneers (No. 27), even after re-signing Leonard Fournette. Should he make it to Round 2, the Texans (No. 37) are a fit. -- Miller
James Cook, Georgia
What he does best: Versatility is the name of Cook's game. He can run between the tackles, but his calling card in the NFL will come on perimeter runs and creative ways to use his pass-catching ability. Because of his ability to accelerate and generate explosive plays, he could become a popular target to add to a committee.
Where he could fit: Early-to-mid third round is the likely landing spot for Cook, but it wouldn't surprise me if he goes even earlier than that. The Texans (No. 80) and Giants (No. 81) make sense, but his floor could be the Dolphins (No. 102), who have a versatile offensive system in which he could thrive. -- Reid
Pierre Strong Jr., South Dakota State
What he does best: Strong is a creative back with game-changing speed (4.37-second 40) and explosiveness. He makes defenders miss with awesome field vision and the speed to pull away for chunk yardage. He's also strong and wiry enough to bounce off tacklers and keep going after first contact.
Where he could fit: Give Strong to a team running outside zone and watch him run free. The Dolphins (No. 102), Chiefs (No. 103), 49ers (No. 105) or Texans (No. 107) are all fits. -- Miller