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All encompassing 2022 draft thoughts thread

On the radio this morning, Lance Zierlein said he had heard the Jags have settled on a defensive player. Lance still isn't sure, because HC Doug Pederson prefers Icky. This is a big decision that has ramifications to pick #3.

If the Jags take Icky, Hutchinson goes to the Lions and the Texans will select between Travon Walker and Sauce Gardner. What about Evan Neal? Neal supposedly has a knee issue that has removed him from the top of some draft boards. I don't know if the Texans are one of those teams, but I doubt they will take that risk.

However, this scenario could put the #3 pick in play for a trade. With Ekwonu off the board and Neal pushed down the board, only one top OT becomes available, Charles Cross. The Texans could get offers from the Giants, Panthers, and Seahawks. If the Texans move down to #5 with the Giants taking Cross, at least one of the players they're interested in (Walker, Sauce) will be available.
 
Texian said:
Maybe a review of @CloakNNNdagger explanation of how athletes with a severe LisFranc injury lose some of their ability and power to push off from their injured foot is in order. Stingley is NOT a chance I'd be willing to take.
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@CloakNNNdagger did do a writeup on Stingley's injury. You can find it by searching for Stingley as the subject and CloakNNNdagger as the member. What I remember is that CND's chief concern was re-injuring the foot and the long-term ramifications.

Link
 
Lucky said:
On the radio this morning, Lance Zierlein said he had heard the Jags have settled on a defensive player. Lance still isn't sure, because HC Doug Pederson prefers Icky. This is a big decision that has ramifications to pick #3.

If the Jags take Icky, Hutchinson goes to the Lions and the Texans will select between Travon Walker and Sauce Gardner. What about Evan Neal? Neal supposedly has a knee issue that has removed him from the top of some draft boards. I don't know if the Texans are one of those teams, but I doubt they will take that risk.

However, this scenario could put the #3 pick in play for a trade. With Ekwonu off the board and Neal pushed down the board, only one top OT becomes available, Charles Cross. The Texans could get offers from the Giants, Panthers, and Seahawks. If the Texans move down to #5 with the Giants taking Cross, at least one of the players they're interested in (Walker, Sauce) will be available.
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Travon Walker is now the betting favorite to go #1. I imagine every DC gets giddy at the thought of how they can use Walker. That puts Hutchinson in Detroit, their favorite son and hometown boy goes home. I'm not particularly fond of drafting an OG at #3 or in the Top 10 much less. If Neal does have a knee issue, I believe he may because he was very inactive at the Combine and at his Pro Day. That leaves me with Charles Cross who I believe is the best pass protecting LT in this draft. He does have the best footwork, lateral quickness, and ability to bend and recover.

As far as a trade I can still see a very desperate #6 Carolina moving up to get Pickett who like the owner has Pittsburgh connections. Unless of course Carolina trades for Kyler Murray then the Pickett trade is off.
 
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CloakNNNdagger said:
As far as Jameson Williams, he suffered his ACL Jan 2022. This is the most up-to-date study (specifically regarding WRs) that I have referred to in the past that should make taking him high give one pause. ACLs have improved somewhat in recovery time, but for WRs the prognosis should still remain quite guarded.

******************************************************************

Arthroscopy, Sports Medicine, and Rehabilitation
Volume 3, Issue 2, April 2021, Pages e455-e461

Decreased Performance and Return to Play Following Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction in National Football League Wide Receivers
Author links open overlay panelColin J.BurgessD.O.aErikStapletonD.O., M.S.aKennethChoyB.A.bCesarIturriagaM.D.aRandy M.CohnM.D.a


Purpose
To identify the time to return to play (RTP) and evaluate the performance level in wide receivers in the National Football League following anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction.

Methods
A total of 29 wide receivers in the National Football League who underwent ACL reconstruction between 2013 and 2017 who met inclusion criteria were retrospectively identified and reviewed. For each player, a matched control with similar demographics was identified to compare various in-game performance measurements and seasons played.

Results
Of the wide receivers that met the inclusion criteria, 9 of 29 (31%) did not RTP in a regular season game following ACL reconstruction. For players who did RTP, 20 of 29 (69%), the average time was 10.9 months (331.4 ± 41.6 days). When we compared the tear group with the matched control cohort, players with ACL tears ended their careers on an average of 1.9 seasons earlier (2.2 vs 4.1 seasons, P < .001) and also played less than half the number of games (25.5 vs 56.6 games, P = .001), respectively. Those that RTP also saw decreased performance statistics in targets (353.6 vs 125.2 P < .001), receptions (208.0 vs 74.4, P = .001), receiving yards (2691.0 vs 987.9, P = .001), and touchdowns (17.4 vs 6.2, P = .002).

Conclusions
Sixty-nine percent of wide receivers who underwent ACL reconstruction were able to RTP at an average of 10.9 months, or 331.4 days. Despite the majority of players being able to RTP, there was a significant decrease in both statistical performance and career duration.
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[/QUOTE]

Words of warning
 
Veteran Peter King is suggesting Texans may trade up for Garrett Wilson.
There is strong talk that the run on receivers could start around #10, so this has some traction.
If so, I hope we trade back with Seahawks and Wilson will be our pick at #9.
 
Texansphan said:
Veteran Peter King is suggesting Texans may trade up for Garrett Wilson.
There is strong talk that the run on receivers could start around #10, so this has some traction.
If so, I hope we trade back with Seahawks and Wilson will be our pick at #9.
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Kings Mock he put out yesterday has HOU doing just that. It’s a few pages back.
 
Here is a question I have. I did an unrealistic draft simulation. I ended up with 10 picks all in the top 108. 4 first rounders, but the 1st pick was at 15. Would you trade back like this or prefer to get one of the top 3?
 
Evan Neil/Kyle Hamilton would be ideal, but realistically Hamilton should already be selected, so went Edge/LB Devin Lloyd.
Ahmad Gardner/trade down-Zion Johnson the dream :koolaid:
 
Updated Tuesday, April 26, 2022.

The Consensus Top-300 Big Board
RANK
PLAYER
SCHOOL
POSITION
POS RK
VARIANCE
1Aidan HutchinsonMichiganED197.7
2Evan NealAlabamaOT191.0
3Kayvon ThibodeauxOregonED283.5
4Kyle HamiltonNotre DameS189.2
5Ikem EkwonuNorth Carolina StateOT287.9
6Ahmad GardnerCincinnatiCB183.0
7Derek Stingley Jr.LSUCB291.0
8Travon WalkerGeorgiaED3103.3
9Charles CrossMississippi StateOT382.7
10Garrett WilsonOhio StateWR1106.0
11Jermaine Johnson IIFlorida StateED4105.7
12Jameson WilliamsAlabamaWR278.3
13Tyler LinderbaumIowaOC1112.7
14Jordan DavisGeorgiaDL1T1120.6
15Drake LondonUSCWR390.9
16Devin LloydUtah
 
Lucky said:
What about Evan Neal? Neal supposedly has a knee issue that has removed him from the top of some draft boards.
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Because this info drops the week of the draft, it reads more to me like pre-draft sabotage and jockeying to get this kid to slide down the board for someone to steal..similar to how the Tunsil smoke video caused him to slide a little. Apparently its a team outside of the top 5-10 who needs a tackle because the same thing is happening with Bernard Raimann.
 
Lucky said:
On the radio this morning, Lance Zierlein said he had heard the Jags have settled on a defensive player. Lance still isn't sure, because HC Doug Pederson prefers Icky. This is a big decision that has ramifications to pick #3.

If the Jags take Icky, Hutchinson goes to the Lions and the Texans will select between Travon Walker and Sauce Gardner. What about Evan Neal? Neal supposedly has a knee issue that has removed him from the top of some draft boards. I don't know if the Texans are one of those teams, but I doubt they will take that risk.

However, this scenario could put the #3 pick in play for a trade. With Ekwonu off the board and Neal pushed down the board, only one top OT becomes available, Charles Cross. The Texans could get offers from the Giants, Panthers, and Seahawks. If the Texans move down to #5 with the Giants taking Cross, at least one of the players they're interested in (Walker, Sauce) will be available.
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pure speculation on who the Texans might be choosing between in that scenario.
 
Jack Burton said:
Or they can address it in the 1st like King did in his mock And address other needs later.
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There’s so much speed at WR in this year’s draft…..take one pretty much anytime between RD1 and RD4.

I think Pierce (Cincinnati) or Gray (SMU) would be a solid addition to the Texans. Pierce could be the Texans version Cooper Kupp and Gray is pure speed, that could take the top off most defenses….he could also handle returns. Texans are sitting nice with the Cooks / Collins duo and adding either receivers would be a plus.
 
3 concerns re Stingley

1 his best year by far was his freshman year when he looked all world

2 he is more of a man corner so is he a scheme fit

3 how long until the lisfranc injury rears its ugly head.
 
Mr teX said:
Because this info drops the week of the draft, it reads more to me like pre-draft sabotage and jockeying to get this kid to slide down the board for someone to steal..similar to how the Tunsil smoke video caused him to slide a little. Apparently its a team outside of the top 5-10 who needs a tackle because the same thing is happening with Bernard Raimann.
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It has a strange smell to it, both ways. Neal has never missed a start in his 3 seasons. The only injury I am aware of was during the Arkansas game his freshman season in 2019, when he left the game after 13 snaps. But, Neal came back and started in the next game vs. LSU. Still, Neal did not workout at the combine or his pro day.

It's a similar story to Jawaan Taylor's 2019 draft day dive. Taylor was consistently mocked in the top 10 until a day before the draft when a rumor about a knee injury surfaced. Taylor had played every game in his 3 years at Florida and had a very good workout at the combine (though he didn't run or jump). But on Day 1, Taylor went unselected. Jacksonville took him with the 3rd pick in the 2nd round the following day. Taylor has started and taken every snap during his 3 year NFL career.

This last second injury report seems odd to me, as Taylor's did in 2019. But it did send Taylor dropping. All teams have the same medical info. Which teams believe it is an issue and which doesn't? It's impossible to say, now. The Texans didn't bring Neal in for a visit, making him conspicuous in his absence. I've seen this movie before.
 
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OptimisticTexan said:
There’s so much speed at WR in this year’s draft…..take one pretty much anytime between RD1 and RD4.

I think Pierce (Cincinnati) or Gray (SMU) would be a solid addition to the Texans. Pierce could be the Texans version Cooper Kupp and Gray is pure speed, that could take the top off most defenses….he could also handle returns. Texans are sitting nice with the Cooks / Collins duo and adding either receivers would be a plus.
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I dont have a problem with that either. I’m open to alot of scenarios as this is a rebuild.
I like Pierce or Christian Watson at 37 too.
But if HOU believes Wilson is atrue, elite #1 and they want him, I’m good with that too.
 
Maybe I am wrong on this. I probably am, but doesn't Lovie play a Cover 2 defense. The corners are primarily zone defenders. I'm wondering if Stingley and Sauce are the best choices, at 3 , for zone coverage. I know Lovie said he can't play the kind of defense he wants without better CBs, but are shut down man corners needed in his defense vs. great D Lineman? I was wanting OL at 3, but I think the tackle position will be okay if they draft a mauler or two at guard. But back to the defense question. What is more important to Lovie's D, a great D Line or a shut down MAN corner?
 
Xopher said:
Maybe I am wrong on this. I probably am, but doesn't Lovie play a Cover 2 defense. The corners are primarily zone defenders. I'm wondering if Stingley and Sauce are the best choices, at 3 , for zone coverage. I know Lovie said he can't play the kind of defense he wants without better CBs, but are shut down man corners needed in his defense vs. great D Lineman? I was wanting OL at 3, but I think the tackle position will be okay if they draft a mauler or two at guard. But back to the defense question. What is more important to Lovie's D, a great D Line or a shut down MAN corner?
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D-Line…..then speed, speed, speed in the defensive backfield.
 
Xopher said:
Maybe I am wrong on this. I probably am, but doesn't Lovie play a Cover 2 defense. The corners are primarily zone defenders. I'm wondering if Stingley and Sauce are the best choices, at 3 , for zone coverage. I know Lovie said he can't play the kind of defense he wants without better CBs, but are shut down man corners needed in his defense vs. great D Lineman? I was wanting OL at 3, but I think the tackle position will be okay if they draft a mauler or two at guard. But back to the defense question. What is more important to Lovie's D, a great D Line or a shut down MAN corner?
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Yes, the CB's play zone coverage similar to a cover 2 defense. The CB's in Lovie's defense also have more responsibility in run defense. From what I've read, the D Line is the more important. The reason for the emphasis on the CB's is because what we have on the roster did such a poor job last season and is in need of a major upgrade. But as you point out, zone defenders more so than man defenders.
 
Texans are drafting:

1st & 13th picks in RD1
5th pick in RD2
4th & 16th picks in RD3
2nd & 3rd picks in RD4

All 7 picks are in enviable spots and could be dealt for the right offer. At the moment, the Texans are sitting on 10 picks.
 
What to make of this article? 2022 NFL Draft: Strongest position group? Weakest?

Do you take one (or multiple) of the weakest position groups early to ensure you get the best of a weak position or do you load up on the strongest position groups? Sauce and Hamilton at 3 and 13? Or do you split the difference by taking one of the potential star o-linemen and a secondary guy in the first?

Unusual and difficult (and exciting) draft to figure out because nobody in the top 15 or 20 really stands out above the rest. Even at #1 there's a lot of debate for the Jags.
 
banned1976 said:
What to make of this article? 2022 NFL Draft: Strongest position group? Weakest?

Do you take one (or multiple) of the weakest position groups early to ensure you get the best of a weak position or do you load up on the strongest position groups? Sauce and Hamilton at 3 and 13? Or do you split the difference by taking one of the potential star o-linemen and a secondary guy in the first?

Unusual and difficult (and exciting) draft to figure out because nobody in the top 15 or 20 really stands out above the rest. Even at #1 there's a lot of debate for the Jags.
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I'm taking the OL/secondary guys. But I'm hoping to pick

1-3 Neal
1-13 Johnson

Give me a talented edge
 
Number19 said:
Yes, the CB's play zone coverage similar to a cover 2 defense. The CB's in Lovie's defense also have more responsibility in run defense. From what I've read, the D Line is the more important. The reason for the emphasis on the CB's is because what we have on the roster did such a poor job last season and is in need of a major upgrade. But as you point out, zone defenders more so than man defenders.
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That's why I am wondering if the Texans should take a D Lineman with 3 and then hopefully can trade back and pick up someone like McDuffie or Elam
 
https://twitter.com/x/status/1519083060033167363

• A handful of teams have raised knee and hip issues to me concerning Alabama OT Evan Neal, with a good number of clubs considering him a notable medical risk.

That doesn’t mean Neal won’t have a good, long career. But I could absolutely see where Jacksonville or Houston, or another team, may look at Neal versus NC State OT Ickey Ekwonu, who has a very clean medical, and take the guy who’s a better bet to last.

I believe Neal and Ekwonu and Mississippi State’s Charles Cross will, for what it’s worth, all wind up going inside the top six picks, so it’s not like I believe that Neal is going to fall too far because of how his medicals came back. That said, I do think his medicals could wind up pushing him down a couple of picks from where he would have gone otherwise. Which, at the level of the draft, can wind up costing a player a few million bucks.

• The medical also figures to affect the off-ball linebacker market. As we mentioned in the MMQB column, Georgia star Nakobe Dean has a laundry list of issues that aren’t disqualifying. However, in totality, they are troubling, given that he’ll enter the league as a smaller player at his position. Utah’s Devin Lloyd has questions in that regard, as well. And that’s left Dean’s teammate Quay Walker as a contender to go first at the position.

The questions with Walker are more about his football IQ and how quickly he’ll pick up an NFL defense. Yes, he played in a pro-style scheme at Georgia. But he didn’t become a starter, despite being 6'4" and 241 pounds and running a 40-yard dash in the 4.5s, until his fourth season in Athens.

• Corners keep coming up with Houston. On Monday, we mentioned how the Texans have been said to be high on LSU’s Derek Stingley Jr. in NFL circles. You can throw Cincinnati’s Sauce Gardner in that mix, too. Thing is, I’m not sure they’d take either at No. 3, and both will almost certainly be gone at 13. Or … maybe because of that, they would take one at three?

(For what it’s worth, Washington’s Trent McDuffie profiles as an excellent fit, too.)

• Here’s a player the NFL might be a little higher on than you think—Florida CB Kaiir Elam. The former Gator star ran faster than anyone thought he would in Indy (4.39), and he has good size (he’s a shade under 6'2", 191 pounds). He also crushed meetings with teams, coming off every bit the savvy NFL legacy (his dad is former Jets S Abe Elam, and his cousin is former Ravens first-round pick Matt Elam) that he is.

• And among the players that may be a little overhyped—Purdue’s George Karlaftis. Going back to the fall, I can’t remember hearing many, if any, NFL people talking about him like he’d be a first-round pick. And my guess right now is that he won’t be.
 
Xopher said:
Maybe I am wrong on this. I probably am, but doesn't Lovie play a Cover 2 defense. The corners are primarily zone defenders. I'm wondering if Stingley and Sauce are the best choices, at 3 , for zone coverage. I know Lovie said he can't play the kind of defense he wants without better CBs, but are shut down man corners needed in his defense vs. great D Lineman? I was wanting OL at 3, but I think the tackle position will be okay if they draft a mauler or two at guard. But back to the defense question. What is more important to Lovie's D, a great D Line or a shut down MAN corner?
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That's why I brought up Andrew Booth a few weeks back.

"They run a lot of shell coverages (at Clemson) but I think he's more of a Lovie Smith-type cornerback but with better twitch and speed." -- Scout for NFC team

And from LZ -

...but his ball-hawking instincts, burst to close and toughness in run support will be very appealing for zone teams looking for an upgrade at cornerback
 
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