Marshall
Not pretty, but ALIVE!
Am I the only one who sees this as unrealized upside (College Tom) which is not available in (College Teddy) who is already doing these things?
Keep Texans Talk Google Ad Free!
Venmo Tip Jar | Paypal Tip Jar
Thanks for your support! 🍺😎👍
AJ McCarron
- Thread starter rmartin65
- Start date
Am I the only one who sees this as unrealized upside (College Tom) which is not available in (College Teddy) who is already doing these things?
One of the things that worries me about Bridgewater is that this may be as good as it gets. Drive & determination are great, man among boys... great... but I don't see the path for growth.
Manziel (& I'm not advocating we draft Manziel at 1-1) is playing at a high level & he's not even doing it right. He still has a lot to learn. Maybe he'll never get there, but his upside is way out there in comparison.
Bortles is playing at a similar level & you can see lots of room for improvement.
Come on man, I get that you don't like Bridgewater and all, but don't you think it is a little absurd to say he might be "too good at this point" and count that as a negative? Seems like you are just grasping at straws now...
Every single player in every single sport always has room for improvement.
You have to take what he said in context , this isn't about how good he is , but if he can be any better than he is .... and he has a solid point , I don't see a lot of room for improvement outside of cleaning up his mechanics and getting that little loop out of his throwing motion.
He does everything well. What can he do better to be a better player in the future ?? His best asset , his pocket presence .... cant be taught.
I really wish he had played in a power conference ....
Context doesn't matter, if you are saying you don't like a guy because he can't do anything better then he already does at the age of 21 then you are just reaching for reasons to hate on a guy you obviously already don't like (which is Bridgewater in thunders case).
I say again, every player has room for improvement. The leap from college football to the NFL is so vast that you have to improve so much just to even make a roster.
Seriously, the discussion in this place has gotten so weird...we aren't even analyzing a players actual abilities anymore and instead just making up talking points that aren't even there...I swear by the end of this month we will be talking about which QB is the best looking and whether or not that will effect his confidence and spill over into games. Not pointing fingers, we all are doing it. I can't wait until at least the combine has passed so we have some more actual data to analyze .
Dude , much of this process and all of the $$$$$ is about "how good they can be in the future" .... Not "how good are they now".
Having room for improvement and having the ability to improving are two different things. If you have maxed out your ability .... you don't improve further.
If Bridgewater has reached his best , he's not a candidate for 1:1.
(I'm not saying he has , just trying to explain the concept which seems lost)
I don`t know why you are worried about Bridgewater. For one thing, he has a killer drive and determination (as you pointed out), is a film nut and has huge football intelligence. Those are the kind of guys that try to get better every day and that know how to do it. Facing NFL defenses will make him better. The biggest knock on him was the competition he faced. But he is the kind of guy that will only get better, after facing better competition. Because after every game he will watch 100 hours of tape, find out exactly what he did wrong and figure out how to do it better the next time.
And he hasn`t filled out his body yet. He will get bigger and stronger. His biggest weakness so far was his deep throw accuracy (more arm strength and coaching can fix that). Other knocks on him has been minor technical issues (little hitch in the throwing motion, holding the ball to low, footwork not always perfect when facing pressure) - all of those things can be corrected with good coaching.
He won`t get taller and he won`t get bigger hands - he won`t ever be a natural runner like Manziel (though he is a pretty decent runner). But besides that all his weakness can be improved. And having a guy with a tremendous drive and football intelligence really helps in that regard. So I don`t know why you are worried about Bridgewater in that regard.
beerlover
Hall of Fame
Not much to add after multiple brilliant posts on subject matter, being AJ McCarron. But one thing for sure, that is so difficult to measure, is a players innermost desire & motivation. The proverbial, chip on the shoulder. Best thing in the world for AJ would be for him to slip to the 6th round, then let the Brady comparisons roll.
If you look at what I said... "Manziel ain't doing it right & is highly successful" & I'll add against "the stiffest competition" just imagine how much better he could be if he were to do it "right" staying in the pocket, playing within the system until he absolutely have to adlib & make something up.
As far as his college production goes, I'll give him an 8. Yards, TDs, INTs, accuracy, yadda, yadda, yadda.... if he were playing in a pro system (no fault of his that he isn't) & was making calls at the line with the production he has, I'd give him a 10.
Bridgewater (who I do not hate & would be just as happy if the Texans selected him as if they selected Manziel..... especially at 1-1, which I wouldn't be to thrilled with either) gets the same 8. Except he gets it because he is making the reads & calls at the line, because he is playing in a pro style offense.
Manziel can get better when he learns the pro system, making calls at the line, bringing him to a 9. He might get worse, he might not be able to do it.... but if he does, he gets better, his score improves.
Bridgewater's not going to get better from that aspect, because he already knows how to play in a pro system. He stays at an 8.
Bridgewater should get better with time, the NFL should "slow down" for him, he'll learn to manipulate the defense, blah, blah, blah, his score will improve to a 9.
Manziel should get better with time, the NFL should "slow down" for him. May not, he may be a hopeless cause, but he might & if he does, he'll go to a 10.
Manziel has more paths to improve than Bridgewater, that's all I'm saying. Now you may not agree that they are both starting out at 8, & that's fine. But anyone considering Manziel at 1-1 (I'm not, & I'm not saying that anyone is, but we are having this conversation.... so...) thinks they are relatively close right now.
As far as his college production goes, I'll give him an 8. Yards, TDs, INTs, accuracy, yadda, yadda, yadda.... if he were playing in a pro system (no fault of his that he isn't) & was making calls at the line with the production he has, I'd give him a 10.
Bridgewater (who I do not hate & would be just as happy if the Texans selected him as if they selected Manziel..... especially at 1-1, which I wouldn't be to thrilled with either) gets the same 8. Except he gets it because he is making the reads & calls at the line, because he is playing in a pro style offense.
Manziel can get better when he learns the pro system, making calls at the line, bringing him to a 9. He might get worse, he might not be able to do it.... but if he does, he gets better, his score improves.
Bridgewater's not going to get better from that aspect, because he already knows how to play in a pro system. He stays at an 8.
Bridgewater should get better with time, the NFL should "slow down" for him, he'll learn to manipulate the defense, blah, blah, blah, his score will improve to a 9.
Manziel should get better with time, the NFL should "slow down" for him. May not, he may be a hopeless cause, but he might & if he does, he'll go to a 10.
Manziel has more paths to improve than Bridgewater, that's all I'm saying. Now you may not agree that they are both starting out at 8, & that's fine. But anyone considering Manziel at 1-1 (I'm not, & I'm not saying that anyone is, but we are having this conversation.... so...) thinks they are relatively close right now.
If he goes to the Patriots, or Steelers in the 6th. Going to the Cardinals or Bills, or one of these other QB black holes... not so much.
& just because McCarron didn't have to doesn't mean he couldn't.
Just because Manziel & Bridgewater could in college, when they were clearly the best player on the team (& Manziel was on a much more talented team), doesn't mean they can when the talent level is more "similar."
I contend that A.J. McCarron was a bigger part of Alabama's success than McElroy & JWP. Nowhere near the MVP type player that Manzeil & Bridgewater were for their team.
From what little bit I've learned of what O'Brien wants in a QB, no one comes as close as Aj McCarron.
Yeah, I actually I agree with you, at least to some extent. Manziel has the higher ceiling because he has a special skill set. He could actually be a one in a generation kind of player.
But he has a much lower floor than Bridgewater. Manziel might very well go the Vince Young way or get injured early. The faster game with better competition will hurt his style of play, the question is how fast can he adjust to it and how much punishment can his body take.
Bridgewaters floor I´d say is Alex Smith - something like an ultimate game manager. Doesn`t take many chance, doesn`t do many mistakes, can buy time in the pocket and run when he has to, but won`t take many shot downfield. A QB that won`t get you miracle comebacks, but one the can finish the game in a positive way for you.
But he has a much lower floor than Bridgewater. Manziel might very well go the Vince Young way or get injured early. The faster game with better competition will hurt his style of play, the question is how fast can he adjust to it and how much punishment can his body take.
Bridgewaters floor I´d say is Alex Smith - something like an ultimate game manager. Doesn`t take many chance, doesn`t do many mistakes, can buy time in the pocket and run when he has to, but won`t take many shot downfield. A QB that won`t get you miracle comebacks, but one the can finish the game in a positive way for you.
You had me until you mentioned Vince Young in relation to Manziel.
Vince Young's biggest problem, was that he was a big baby. When they were winning, Vince was one of the more promising up & coming QBs. Yeah, he gets a lot of hate around here, but it is what it is. When they started losing, he didn't know how to deal with it & it snowballed from there.
I don't know how Manziel is going to react when things get tough. I don't know how Bridgewater is going to react when things get tough. Just like I didn't expect to see Keenum regress when things weren't going his way... things he had absolutely no control over.
Give either of these kids $15M & tell them it's up to them to save a franchise... it can have some damning effects on a person.
All that to say I agree with you, Manziel has the lower floor.... but it has nothing to do with any Vince Young syndrome.
bah007
Hall of Fame
I agree with all of the bolded. Despite what everyone is saying about O'Brien's QBs, I don't think anyone has enough info to be able to figure out exactly what he is looking for. It's all guesswork. But the fact that McCarron studied so much film to prepare for Michigan can certainly not be taken as a negative.
My point in the previous post was not to demean McCarron. Only to point out that using Leinart to prop him up does not help your argument. Leinart failed. Just because he was drafted high doesn't mean he was worthy of being drafted high.
His flaws/question marks were the same flaws/question marks that most people see in McCarron. That doesn't make it an absolute truth or anything that McCarron will end up the same. But pointing out that a similar prospect who busted was drafted high doesn't help.
Cool. I think differently. I think Lienart failed, because he didn't have that drive that we think Bridgewater & Manziel have... that drive that Tom Brady developed. Like I said in my previous post, you give a kid $15M to sign his name & that can kill a lot of "drive."
He had his moments in 2006. Kubiak thought enough of him to bring him here. Then he went to the Raiders, then Buffalo... Surely he was getting those chances based on something.
Still... tomato, tomahto..... he failed, as some prospects will even if graded accurately. Those guys on TV only make it look easy.
TexansFTW
Veteran
You know what they say about guys with ugly girlfriends right? No confidence. We need to find picks of his GF.
But honestly, I agree with you. When people are saying he is too good now, it is pretty wack IMO.
Think of the NFL as a business and think of yourself as the boss of the business.
You've got 2 guys to choose for the job promotion... 1 guy goes into work every morning on time, and stays late every day, can be relied on 100%, goes above and beyond his job requirements and gets the job done. Comes in Saturdays, and takes short lunches if you ask, he puts in the work and wants you to see it.
The other is really smart, possibly smarter although we haven't really seen it consistently. He calls in sick all the time, comes in late, leaves early, you can't find him at his desk half the time, but dude is smart, and the dude is good at his job. Can't be denied. If he puts his mind to it and gives everything he has he can be amazing, but he doesn't. Maybe it's because he doesn't have to. He does just enough to make it through the day, but at the end of the day he still does a great job and gets the numbers you want.
Who do you promote to management AKA who do you draft?
Oh yeah, and a 21 year old is NEVER maxed out on how much they can improve. Were any of you at 21?
I believe that if AJ McCarron goes to the Cardinals he CAN BE successful. I think that would be a premium spot for him to land. Great WRs, Incredible Defense, Solid run game that seems to be improving.
Last edited:
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
Back?
kiwitexansfan
Hall of Fame
Evaluation is a funny thing. 1 expert says he has proven himself and will be in the first. Another says 2/3 of his throws were ugly. How does that make any sense?
beerlover
Hall of Fame
Maycock can really be off at times, growing tiresome on my nerves, he is not natural at player evaluation.
beerlover
Hall of Fame
WolverineFan
Hall of Fame
His evaluation skills are suffering from that NBC contract. Instead of evaluating college games all day he is preparing for and calling Notre Dame games.
Playoffs
Hall of Fame
30 year NFL scout.
2 of 3 throws in the long pass drill were poor today.
My knock on McCarron has been arm strength and long ball. It looks to me his passes hold speed for ~15 yards or so. Maybe more than that, though, I have trouble recalling "plus" plays/"wow" moments. 2nd round for WCO/Shanny -- Kubiak would love him, imo.
SI_DougFarrar ‏@SI_DougFarrar
TexansSeminole
Hall of Fame
I think he's helped himself from what I have seen and also heard. I don't know what it means for his overall draft grade though.
TexansFTW
Veteran
Mayock destroys about 99% of players, especially in the evaluation process.
The biggest difference on Thursday night Football and Monday night Football is Mayock hates and finds fault with every player that walks on the field and Gruden loves and finds great qualities with every player that walks on the field.
kiwitexansfan
Hall of Fame
Guess that is what makes Gruden a coach and Mayock a 'scout'.
Not exactly a list you want to be apart of.
kiwitexansfan
Hall of Fame
Here is a list of players Tom Brady is most comparable to.
Todd Husak82.2%
Sean Keenan79.1%
Bill Burke76.8%
Justin Fuente76.2%
Drew Olson75%
Hunter Cantwell74.6%
Josh Blankenship74.1%
Kyle Wright72.9%
John Stocco72.7%
Gino Guidugli
LINK
Measurables don't mean JACK.
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
Or...the way that program has been designed IT means jack.
Mr teX
Hall of Fame
I was high on McCarron pre-OU bowl game...That game showed me what i had suspicions about....I wanted to see if he could put the team on his back & will his team to victory...Instead i saw him crumble making horrible throws & looking uncomfortable most of the night. He looked like that more often than not when Bama got into tough games.
Maybe he & the team mailed it in after such a deflating loss to Auburn. Maybe he needs time to undo the game manager type of qb coaching Saban gives to all of his qbs. Either way, i kind of fell back on him after that game...did not like what i saw from him.
Maybe he & the team mailed it in after such a deflating loss to Auburn. Maybe he needs time to undo the game manager type of qb coaching Saban gives to all of his qbs. Either way, i kind of fell back on him after that game...did not like what i saw from him.
kiwitexansfan
Hall of Fame
That site works off combine measurables.
I could test at the combine and it would tell you who I most closely resemble although I have no football skills or experience.
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
Just because you use the same ingredients doesn't mean you cook the same dish. There's an algorithm in the program weighing the measurables.
Being a quality NFL QB is largely an exception to the rule, and Tom Brady is literally this generation's biggest outlier. Basically unathletic, 6th round Qbs are a terrible bet to even hold down a 3rd string job even a few years.
There is reason people ALWAYS bring Brady, because he literally is the only dude who has done what he has. And no you (nor the NFL) has no special ability to find the next once in genration unatheltic, poorly built, 6th round QB who has out of this world intangibles.
Playoffs
Hall of Fame
WolverineFan
Hall of Fame
He's carrying a chip on his shoulder right now, but (IMO) it's not the "I'm going to prove these guys wrong" chip like Brady carried. It's more like a "I'm so much better than they say I am, this is bull****" kind of chip.
Mr teX
Hall of Fame
completely agree. He's looking at his college resume at Bama & how much they won with him & the helm vs. every other prospects & is like "really?...this isn't a contest.."
bah007
Hall of Fame
Ken Dorsey
I'm not going to harp on it, because I don't want anyone to get misconstrued & think McCarron is "my guy" I like him best of all the QBs coming out, but I'm going to support whoever the Texans pick & I'm not going to hate on everyone else because they aren't McCarron.
But I don't think he's looking at how much they won, I think he's looking at how much he contributed to those wins. Julio Jones was thought to be a phenomenal talent. Atlanta traded up to get him. No one said, "Look at all the talent they've got on that team." Trent Richardson was drafted in the first round, then traded for a first rounder. It didn't hurt his draft status that he was on such a talented team. If it weren't for his knees, Kouandjio would be a first round lock.
McCarron did more from the QB position than he's getting credit for. If I were him I'd have a chip on my shoulder as well.
htownfan32
Hall of Fame
Put in most of the starting quarterbacks of the SEC in for McCarron and I bet you'd get comparable if not better results. Aaron Murray, Mettenberger, Manziel, and even Bo Wallace and James Franklin would all do as well if not better. My opinion, of course.
TexansFTW
Veteran
Nothing wrong with having a guy. There is something wrong with having a guy and denying you have a guy though.
Many of your posts have been quite biased towards AJ and that's cool bro. He's your guy, own it. If you TRULY believe he can do what the top 3 can do and you can get him a 2.01 then that is your opinion and I respect your right to have one.
What I am starting to see from people in this board is riding of the fence though. You can't play both sides when it comes to opinions and debates. I think AJ will fail in the NFL, I don't see a future for him. I don't think he can hold the towels for the top 3 guys. I don't think he will be drafted until day 3. No wavering, I've stood firm since the beginning and never came off my stance, because I believed what my eyes and brain told me. When I'm right you will know it, if I am wrong I will own it.
This is all obviously my opinion though.
Well I'm not riding the fence. I have no idea which one of these QBs will have a long successful career in the NFL. I believe there are 6 who might & have the ability to start sooner, rather than later.
I think it has more to do with the team than the player. None of these guys will elevate Cleveland, or Jacksonville, or Buffalo to relevance. None of them are going to beat Drew Brees, or Tom Brady out of a job. So if McCarron goes to a QB blackhole & fail, or becomes the backup for Rodgers, Rivers, or Manning & never see the field, don't come rubbing it in my face.
But if OB is who we think he is & we fix this team, where it needs to be fixed, or just plug up the dam a bit... any of these guys can improve the position & get us back on the right track.
If it were me, I'd pass on QB in the 1st round & take McCarron in the second. But I have no delusions & understand he may not be drafted at all. & even if "they" were talking about McCarron as one of the top three, I would not be suggesting we take him with 1-1..... I'd pass on him & take the one I like most of the 3 remaining from my list in the second (which would probably be Murray). That's how much I don't have "my guy" with these QBs.
Playoffs
Hall of Fame
A "not very likable" Ken Dorsey.
Nope
While McCarron's arm strength is avg. (60 yds, can throw deep out but has to be on time like Schaub. Arm is stronger than Schaub's arm)
Schaub's arm strength this yr is comparable to Dorsey's.
bah007
Hall of Fame
That's not good news as I never found Dorsey to be likable at all.
I guess my comment was pretty obscure but I wasn't trying to make a physical comparison.
The comments about McCarron's demeanor remind me of Dorsey, who had the same attitude when he came out in the draft.