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After year 1, grade 2022 draft

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
Here's the main difference. The players Caserio have traded for had one year left on their contracts. A rookie will have 4 years.
6th round picks... 4 year contracts don't really mean "4 years."

I agree with you. Don't make sense to trade anything for a player on an expiring contract, especially when you’re #3 on the waiver wire. Even more so if those guys don't make it to training camp before you dump them.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
I wonder how many 6th round draft picks actually work out vs Nick’s trading away 6th round picks for a players and having X number work out?

There has to be a ratio for comparison somewhere that Caserio is using to validate his actions.
I dont have any issues trading late rd picks to move up.

For instance would you rather trade pick #75 with picks #103 and a 6th to move back into the bottom of the 2nd rd and get a DT that could start right away or a DE that may have fallen say like Zach Harrison.

Then if you wanted to move back into the 4th you could trade your top of the rd 5th with a couple of 6ths and get a TE or RB that you really like. You would have to sit out the 5th but would still have a 6th to make a pick with. Would you like a draft that looked something like this if it meant sitting out the 5th and only having 1 pick in the 6th?

1. Young
1. Johnston
2. Zach Harrison
2. Achane
3. Avila or Stromberg
4. Luke Musgrave, I also like the Oregon center Forsythe here alot.
6. T'Vondre Sweat,

Give me this any day over having a couple of more 6th rd picks.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
6th round picks... 4 year contracts don't really mean "4 years."

I agree with you. Don't make sense to trade anything for a player on an expiring contract, especially when you’re #3 on the waiver wire. Even more so if those guys don't make it to training camp before you dump them.
Sometimes you hit on a guy like Cashman and sometimes you miss on a guy like Miller. A late rd pick is worth the gamble. IMHO. Now if you're #1 on the WW that's a different story.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
To answer your questions:

1. Honest question. I just don’t know. If he traded 3 away to get one good player but then if 6th rounders have a 33% success rate well I would go with drafting because the money makes more sense. But if they only have a 10% chance of working out then there is some math that goes into the his decision making. He may have been looking for known results vs the unknown.

2. I don’t do my own research. I ask others like I ask the Google bar for stuff. If it’s what I am looking for then I know it worked.

3. You are pretty reputable when you agree with me.

I get your point.
What are the odds of a 6th rd pick making an impact on the team?

This is just another discussion about quantity over quality.

Lucky's a penny pincher, who's a quantity guy. I'm a quality over Quantity guy. Besides how many picks did Caserio truly piss away and how many picks did he hit on? Is it a bad thing to fill out your roster with a bunch of 1 yr vet min guys? How much harm has really been done?
 

leebigeztx

Keep it Movin!
I'm still very frustrated with Casserio's first round performance, both picks !
I dunno how is it he does so well with his midrounders like Pitre & Pierce but makes such questionable selections with what should be slam dunks, which is certainly what the 3rd overall followed by the other first round pick in the mid teens should be.
So both of those first rounders had serious injuries which IMO effectively prevents a valid appraisal of their rookie seasons, but I'll give the rest of Casserio's Draft a strong B or maybe even an A.
Those early picks will get you fired
 

beerlover

Hall of Fame
Pacheco was selected in the seventh round with the 251st overall pick of the 2022 NFL Draft by the Kansas City Chiefs. He has 162 carries 762 yards 4.73 per attempt & 4 TD’s.
Here is his College tape- it’s all there
 

leebigeztx

Keep it Movin!
What are the odds of a 6th rd pick making an impact on the team?

This is just another discussion about quantity over quality.

Lucky's a penny pincher, who's a quantity guy. I'm a quality over Quantity guy. Besides how many picks did Caserio truly piss away and how many picks did he hit on? Is it a bad thing to fill out your roster with a bunch of 1 yr vet min guys? How much harm has really been done?
Time is the most precious coin we have as humans. Its the only thing you can't buy more of. To me, jmo, I don't care if this team was flush with lower rd draft picks on cheap salaries vs KGH and MPL type of guys. We spoke about the depth pf the draft because of the covid players. Go look at what this roster could've had with all those 3rd and 4th rd players he gave up to get Metchie and the lb. I mean, we don't agree alot, but this is something we could agree upon. I mean Texans had like 3 4th rd selections originally if I remember and look at the players chosen in those spots. Ihaih Likely is a real player at the te spot. He moves like a 6'4 wr at the te spot. Rachaid White and even Janes Cook was there along with Pickens who I know you were very high on. All in all, Stingley who didn't have good film since his freshman year picked 3rd. Metchie drafted the same position as your best offensive player Cooks didn'r make alot of sense. Pitre and Pierce looks like players, but missing on Sayler and a whole host of players in those middle rounds will and do hurt. I would give Peyton the keys and power and see where it goes vs a 63 yr old Lovie. Thats where I'm at.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Time is the most precious coin we have as humans. Its the only thing you can't buy more of. To me, jmo, I don't care if this team was flush with lower rd draft picks on cheap salaries vs KGH and MPL type of guys. We spoke about the depth pf the draft because of the covid players. Go look at what this roster could've had with all those 3rd and 4th rd players he gave up to get Metchie and the lb. I mean, we don't agree alot, but this is something we could agree upon. I mean Texans had like 3 4th rd selections originally if I remember and look at the players chosen in those spots. Ihaih Likely is a real player at the te spot. He moves like a 6'4 wr at the te spot. Rachaid White and even Janes Cook was there along with Pickens who I know you were very high on. All in all, Stingley who didn't have good film since his freshman year picked 3rd. Metchie drafted the same position as your best offensive player Cooks didn'r make alot of sense. Pitre and Pierce looks like players, but missing on Sayler and a whole host of players in those middle rounds will and do hurt. I would give Peyton the keys and power and see where it goes vs a 63 yr old Lovie. Thats where I'm at.
Agreed

This draft isn't as deep as last yrs draft.

Other than Edge/TE/C/RB I really dont like this draft.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Big difference you’re not mentioning is the QB position. It’s vastly better, especially @ the top. Go figure :hankpalm:
Difference in opinion of the QB class.

Chances are one of these guys will be a good QB, maybe 2. There are no great QB's in this class. Let me ask you this, You are a Herbert fan , I'm one too. Who in this class is even close to Herberts talent level in this class.
 

leebigeztx

Keep it Movin!
Difference in opinion of the QB class.

Chances are one of these guys will be a good QB, maybe 2. There are no great QB's in this class. Let me ask you this, You are a Herbert fan , I'm one too. Who in this class is even close to Herberts talent level in this class.
You remember the knock on Herbert coming out? We can play this game all day and twice on Sunday. You have your opinion, which you're entitled too. I think Stroud and Young are just as talented in their perspective skill set. Can either do what Herbert is doing with his cast? I believe so, but that's just me.
 

leebigeztx

Keep it Movin!
RS has seen his last days in the NFL. Much less down on Kirby.




That would be a very Texans like thing to do.
You think if Caserio gets fired, any other team is going to give him a shot? Look at the gm of the giants who won 2 sbs and nobody brings his name up. Sure Nick can go back to Pats and do whatever he did there, but without BB, none of those guys have fared well long term. Dimitroff, Peoli, go down the list. It was about Hoodie and Brady, everyone else were just riding coattails.
 

JB

Old Curmudgeon
Contributor's Club
You remember the knock on Herbert coming out? We can play this game all day and twice on Sunday. You have your opinion, which you're entitled too. I think Stroud and Young are just as talented in their perspective skill set. Can either do what Herbert is doing with his cast? I believe so, but that's just me.
He knows they are going to take a QB. He's just laying in his groundwork
 

beerlover

Hall of Fame
Difference in opinion of the QB class.

Chances are one of these guys will be a good QB, maybe 2. There are no great QB's in this class. Let me ask you this, You are a Herbert fan , I'm one too. Who in this class is even close to Herberts talent level in this class.
Different toolbox and fit different schemes. Bryce Young pocket feel and mobility closer to Mahomes. Stroud reminds me more of Stafford, accuracy and touch. Herbert is less mobile than both but has a rocket for an arm yet hasn’t developed touch/catchable short range throws. Both will go in the top 6 or 7 picks at latest.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Different toolbox and fit different schemes. Bryce Young pocket feel and mobility closer to Mahomes. Stroud reminds me more of Stafford, accuracy and touch. Herbert is less mobile than both but has a rocket for an arm yet hasn’t developed touch/catchable short range throws. Both will go in the top 6 or 7 picks at latest.
Herbert looks plenty mobile to me. Certainly as mobile as both Young/Stroud.
 

beerlover

Hall of Fame
Herbert looks plenty mobile to me. Certainly as mobile as both Young/Stroud.
Lombardi has been keeping him quiet in the pocket, dinking and dunking quick releases. Torn rib cartilage has also limited his escapability. His length/height has its own drawbacks lacking twitch, speed and quick reaction needed to shake off tacklers. Think he’ll be alright but needs rest rib area before he can recover normal strength.

Herbert rushed for 253 yards & 5 TD’s as a rookie. 302 yards 3 TD’s sophomore season and with one game left this season has only 148 yards and no TD’s. He’s just not a threat on the ground anymore and his sack total has climbed to 37 compared to 31 & 32 respectively.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Lombardi has been keeping him quiet in the pocket, dinking and dunking quick releases. Torn rib cartilage has also limited his escapability. His length/height has its own drawbacks lacking twitch, speed and quick reaction needed to shake off tacklers. Think he’ll be alright but needs rest rib area before he can recover normal strength.

Herbert rushed for 253 yards & 5 TD’s as a rookie. 302 yards 3 TD’s sophomore season and with one game left this season has only 148 yards and no TD’s. He’s just not a threat on the ground anymore and his sack total has climbed to 37 compared to 31 & 32 respectively.
He's got plenty of mobility, he just chooses to run as a last resort. Of course the rib injury may have him not running. I'm interested in seeing if he runs more in the playoffs.
 

Toro Bravo

Waterboy
We've had a year, it's time and I'm tired of the other conversations anyway.

Round 1: No. 3 – Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU
Round 1. No. 15 (from PHI via MIA) – Kenyon Green, G, Texas A&M
Round 2: No. 37 – Jalen Pitre, S, Baylor
Round 2: No. 44 (from CLE) – John Metchie III, WR, Alabama
Round 3: No. 75 (from DEN) – Christian Harris, LB, Alabama
Round 4: No. 107 (from DET via CLE) – Dameon Pierce, RB, Florida
Round 5: No. 150 (from CHI) – Thomas Booker, DT, Stanford
Round 5: No. 170 (from NE via TB) – Teagan Quitoriano, TE, Oregon State
Round 6: No. 205 (from GB) – Austin Deculus, OT, LSU

Giant A+ excellent picks for Pitre and Pierce
Good value picks for Harris, Booker
Gigantic miss on Stingley
Incomplete on Metchie
meh on Quitoriano and Deculus

After one year, I give Caserio's first real draft a B.
Grading on potential, I give the draft an A. Based on actual performance and availability, I give the draft a C- overall. I expect first round picks to contribute quality plays immediately and both Stingley and Green are huge disappointments compared with the players we could have had - Sauce Gardner 1/3, Jordan Davis 1/13. I wasn't a fan of giving up draft capital to take Metchie when there was still plenty of talent available. But his unfortunate illness was not predictable.

I fear there is a pattern with Caserio to over think prospects, both players and coaches. I give his coaching hires an F.
 

IDEXAN

Hall of Fame
Contributor's Club
Those early picks will get you fired
MY problem with the first round picks is Casserios philosophy re the picks:
Using the third-overall on a player with such a high-risk injury history, & using such a high pick on an interior offensive lineman.
 

Texansballer74

The Marine
Pacheco was selected in the seventh round with the 251st overall pick of the 2022 NFL Draft by the Kansas City Chiefs. He has 162 carries 762 yards 4.73 per attempt & 4 TD’s.
Here is his College tape- it’s all there
It’s because of the system Reid employs. My fat ash could put up these type of numbers in that system.
 

Texansballer74

The Marine
Time is the most precious coin we have as humans. Its the only thing you can't buy more of. To me, jmo, I don't care if this team was flush with lower rd draft picks on cheap salaries vs KGH and MPL type of guys. We spoke about the depth pf the draft because of the covid players. Go look at what this roster could've had with all those 3rd and 4th rd players he gave up to get Metchie and the lb. I mean, we don't agree alot, but this is something we could agree upon. I mean Texans had like 3 4th rd selections originally if I remember and look at the players chosen in those spots. Ihaih Likely is a real player at the te spot. He moves like a 6'4 wr at the te spot. Rachaid White and even Janes Cook was there along with Pickens who I know you were very high on. All in all, Stingley who didn't have good film since his freshman year picked 3rd. Metchie drafted the same position as your best offensive player Cooks didn'r make alot of sense. Pitre and Pierce looks like players, but missing on Sayler and a whole host of players in those middle rounds will and do hurt. I would give Peyton the keys and power and see where it goes vs a 63 yr old Lovie. Thats where I'm at.
You act like he gave up 4-10 draft picks for Metchie. And for the last time no one can predict a young kid getting cancer.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
He has mobility just not elite mobility like Bryce Young, which is where and why you brought him up in the first place.
Bryce Young is mobile, but maybe we have a different definition of mobile.

I see Young as a midget version of Burrow. (Same arm strength and mobility and why both are adequate neither are elite traits.) Burrow has mobility, but I wouldn't say he's got elite mobility
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
MY problem with the first round picks is Casserios philosophy re the picks:
Using the third-overall on a player with such a high-risk injury history, & using such a high pick on an interior offensive lineman.
This is fair.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Grading on potential, I give the draft an A. Based on actual performance and availability, I give the draft a C- overall. I expect first round picks to contribute quality plays immediately and both Stingley and Green are huge disappointments compared with the players we could have had - Sauce Gardner 1/3, Jordan Davis 1/13. I wasn't a fan of giving up draft capital to take Metchie when there was still plenty of talent available. But his unfortunate illness was not predictable.

I fear there is a pattern with Caserio to over think prospects, both players and coaches. I give his coaching hires an F.
Agreed, doubtful Lovie will have any say in the next draft, if he's still the HC down on Kirby.

I'm hoping if Kalfka isn't the guy, Gannon is and he brings Reich in as the OC. Gannon has worked with ST's guy Ross before. Only major assistant coach I don't know about Gannon's contacts with is an ol coach. Hopefully he can get somebody off of the Philly staff to fill this role.
 

Lucky

Ride, Captain, Ride!
Staff member
You act like he gave up 4-10 draft picks for Metchie. And for the last time no one can predict a young kid getting cancer.
You're forgetting that Metchie was already rehabbing a torn ACL. Taking 2 players high in the draft coming off major injuries seemed too risky for a team that had to get value and production out of this draft. Had it all worked out, you could claim it was a genius move by Caserio. But, it hasn't worked out.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Green looks like the biggest miss so far
Yep, but he looked good for the 1st 3-4 games until he got hurt. So the upside is still there for him to be a very successful NFL player.

Draft picks futures aren't decided by their rookie yrs.
You're forgetting that Metchie was already rehabbing a torn ACL. Taking 2 players high in the draft coming off major injuries seemed too risky for a team that had to get value and production out of this draft. Had it all worked out, you could claim it was a genius move by Caserio. But, it hasn't worked out.
We will never know, because the man got cancer if this is true. What we do know is he should be fully recovered from the ACL and good to go for next year. I look at this like getting another 2nd rd pick.
 

beerlover

Hall of Fame
Yep, but he looked good for the 1st 3-4 games until he got hurt. So the upside is still there for him to be a very successful NFL player.

Draft picks futures aren't decided by their rookie yrs.

We will never know, because the man got cancer if this is true. What we do know is he should be fully recovered from the ACL and good to go for next year. I look at this like getting another 2nd rd pick.
See what you're doing here, counting Pitre as two 2nd's :mcclain:
 

JRingo

Waterboy
Yep, but he looked good for the 1st 3-4 games until he got hurt. So the upside is still there for him to be a very successful NFL player.

Draft picks futures aren't decided by their rookie yrs.

We will never know, because the man got cancer if this is true. What we do know is he should be fully recovered from the ACL and good to go for next year. I look at this like getting another 2nd rd pick.
I think Metchie is going to surprise us all once he whips cancer. Seems like a great guy that I’m pulling for…
 

leebigeztx

Keep it Movin!
Metchie doesn't have any special traits, that's why I thought he was overdrafted. He's not big, nor a burner. He's a possession type of wr and I didn't think giving up those picks for him were warranted. It had nothing to do with cancer. Ideally, they needed a outside wr to compliment Cooks and Collins. Metchie basically plays the same position as Cooks except he's not nearly as fast.
 

beerlover

Hall of Fame
Metchie doesn't have any special traits, that's why I thought he was overdrafted. He's not big, nor a burner. He's a possession type of wr and I didn't think giving up those picks for him were warranted. It had nothing to do with cancer. Ideally, they needed a outside wr to compliment Cooks and Collins. Metchie basically plays the same position as Cooks except he's not nearly as fast.
that and he evidently cost 3 other prospects to get him, maybe four I've lost track :sarcasm:
 

Texansballer74

The Marine
Metchie doesn't have any special traits, that's why I thought he was overdrafted. He's not big, nor a burner. He's a possession type of wr and I didn't think giving up those picks for him were warranted. It had nothing to do with cancer. Ideally, they needed a outside wr to compliment Cooks and Collins. Metchie basically plays the same position as Cooks except he's not nearly as fast.
He has elite route running skills.
 

Toro Bravo

Waterboy
Texans traded the following:
- a third (#68)
- a fourth (#108)
- a fourth (#124)

Received:
- a second (#44)

Hindsight is 20/20, but this team sure could have used those 3 picks…
Here are the players Cleveland took at those positions:
68 = CB Martin Emerson, Miss. State
108 = DT Perrion Winfrey, Oklahoma
124 = K Cade York, LSU

Emerson and Winfrey were highly regarded. York must be good to draft a kicker in 4th round - but hey, it's Cleveland. I don't fault Nick for spending capital to improve a position of need. Hopefully, Metchie comes back in 2023 and is the player we expected.
 
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Speedy

Former Yeller Dweller
Here are the players Cleveland took at those positions:
68 = CB Martin Emerson, Miss. State
108 = DT Perrion Winfrey, Oklahoma
124 = K Cade York, LSU

Emerson and Winfrey were highly regarded. York must be good to draft a kicker in 4th round - but hey, it's Cleveland. I don't fault Nick for spending capital to improve a position of need. Hopefully, Metchie comes back in 2023 and is the player we expected.
Doesn’t matter what another team took. What was available there that the Texans could have taken?

And with Metchie coming off an ACL, did the Texans even need to give up that much to get him in the first place?
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Doesn’t matter what another team took. What was available there that the Texans could have taken?

And with Metchie coming off an ACL, did the Texans even need to give up that much to get him in the first place?
We will never know.

What we do know is Metchie is talented.

I would have picked Pickens
 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
Stingley, at his spot, was supposed to Patrick Peterson who was picked at no. 5 overall.

Green at 15, was supposed to be really good for an interior lineman at that spot.
He wasn't, even when healthy early in the season.
Just in the Texans history, Duane Brown was drafted later in a more important position.
Then you have Spencer, Brandon Brooks and so on (like Winston), this pick is not showing well even when he was healthy.

Petrie missed too many tackles, it neutralizes the good things he did.
For his spot, as a rookie, he can be graded as a positive.
But when you talk about a team that can seriously contend for the Lombardy trophy, it's a different matter.

Pierce, we all know is a good player; at his spot, he's great.
But he has yet to prove he can make it through the full slate of games, not even mentioning the playoffs.

Look at Steve Slaton in his rookie year.
His yards from scrimmage and TDs in 2008 far surpassed Pierce's number.

Pierce is good, but he can't be that when he's in the tube.
 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
@steelbtexan
You've been saying that Rick Smith's draft record is not so good or bad between round 2 and 6.

I revisited it and it looks pretty good under Kubiak.

It started to deteriorate under OB.

Even with Gaines.

And then it got worse under O'Brien.
 

Mollywhopper

Facilitator
Staff member
@steelbtexan
You've been saying that Rick Smith's draft record is not so good or bad between round 2 and 6.

I revisited it and it looks pretty good under Kubiak.

It started to deteriorate under OB.

Even with Gaines.

And then it got worse under O'Brien.
Looking back at 2006-2012 drafts under Rick Smith (w/Kubiak), here are the rounds 2-6 players I would consider highlights (and by all means these are open to a degree of debate on what makes for a 'highlight' but by and large I think if you wanted to add one or two while wanting to disagree on one or two the net total may be pretty close to a wash)..

DeMeco Ryans
Eric Winston
Owen Daniels
Jacoby Jones
Steve Slaton
Connor Barwin
Glover Quin
Earl Mitchell
Brooks Reed
Brandon Brooks
Ben Jones

These are out of 40 total selections in that timeframe. 11 'hits'.

I don't know what the success rate is league wide for selections within those rounds in particular but we're looking at varying degrees of success in the 28% range.

Should we be looking to do significantly better or is that satisfactory?
 


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