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After year 1, grade 2022 draft

76Texan

Hall of Fame
Looking back at 2006-2012 drafts under Rick Smith (w/Kubiak), here are the rounds 2-6 players I would consider highlights (and by all means these are open to a degree of debate on what makes for a 'highlight' but by and large I think if you wanted to add one or two while wanting to disagree on one or two the net total may be pretty close to a wash)..

DeMeco Ryans
Eric Winston
Owen Daniels
Jacoby Jones
Steve Slaton
Connor Barwin
Glover Quin
Earl Mitchell
Brooks Reed
Brandon Brooks
Ben Jones

These are out of 40 total selections in that timeframe. 11 'hits'.

I don't know what the success rate is league wide for selections within those rounds in particular but we're looking at varying degrees of success in the 28% range.

Should we be looking to do significantly better or is that satisfactory?
Compare that within the lowly Texans organization and you shall see the difference afterwards.
It was , I wouldn't say night and day.
Probably dawn and night and then very dark.
Such a sad sate of affair.
 

Mollywhopper

Facilitator
Staff member
Compare that within the lowly Texans organization and you shall see the difference afterwards.
It was , I wouldn't say night and day.
Probably dawn and night and then very dark.
Such a sad sate of affair.
Right, so..

Should we be looking to do significantly better or is that satisfactory?
 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
Looking back at 2006-2012 drafts under Rick Smith (w/Kubiak), here are the rounds 2-6 players I would consider highlights (and by all means these are open to a degree of debate on what makes for a 'highlight' but by and large I think if you wanted to add one or two while wanting to disagree on one or two the net total may be pretty close to a wash)..

DeMeco Ryans
Eric Winston
Owen Daniels
Jacoby Jones
Steve Slaton
Connor Barwin
Glover Quin
Earl Mitchell
Brooks Reed
Brandon Brooks
Ben Jones

These are out of 40 total selections in that timeframe. 11 'hits'.

I don't know what the success rate is league wide for selections within those rounds in particular but we're looking at varying degrees of success in the 28% range.

Should we be looking to do significantly better or is that satisfactory?
And don't forget the picks lower than the 6th round and the UDFA that contributed.

Not to mention the FA signings.
 

Mollywhopper

Facilitator
Staff member
And don't forget the picks lower than the 6th round and the UDFA that contributed.

Not to mention the FA signings.
I was clearly going by the selection periods already in play in the discussion, the ones you said you yourself revisited, rnds 2-6.
 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
Right, so..

Should we be looking to do significantly better or is that satisfactory?
Not sure what you meant here?

Should we do better than Rick Smith (as Steelbtexan famously claimed as a low bar).

The Texans had done worse.

The current FO is as bit too early to tell.
 

Mollywhopper

Facilitator
Staff member
Not sure what you meant here?

Should we do better than Rick Smith (as Steelbtexan famously claimed as a low bar).

The Texans had done worse.

The current FO is as bit too early to tell.
Yes, in your opinion should we be doing significantly better than the results I showed took place under Kubiak/Smith within the parameters given.. or do you think that those results are sufficient?
 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
Looking back at 2006-2012 drafts under Rick Smith (w/Kubiak), here are the rounds 2-6 players I would consider highlights (and by all means these are open to a degree of debate on what makes for a 'highlight' but by and large I think if you wanted to add one or two while wanting to disagree on one or two the net total may be pretty close to a wash)..

DeMeco Ryans
Eric Winston
Owen Daniels
Jacoby Jones
Steve Slaton
Connor Barwin
Glover Quin
Earl Mitchell
Brooks Reed
Brandon Brooks
Ben Jones

These are out of 40 total selections in that timeframe. 11 'hits'.

I don't know what the success rate is league wide for selections within those rounds in particular but we're looking at varying degrees of success in the 28% range.

Should we be looking to do significantly better or is that satisfactory?
From this list alone, can you come up with a comparable list after Kubiak?
 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
Yes, in your opinion should we be doing significantly better than the results I showed took place under Kubiak/Smith within the parameters given.. or do you think that those results are sufficient?
Part of it, I think, was due to the different philosophy between the type of players that OB wanted vs. Kubiak.
At least on the offensive side.
 

Mollywhopper

Facilitator
Staff member
From this list alone, can you come up with a comparable list after Kubiak?
I'm sure I could. I'm sure you could too. I'm also sure that's not what I asked.

I asked if you thought those results were adequate or could/should be significantly improved upon.

You already stated you thought after revisiting the results yourself they 'look pretty good', so I'm certain you have a formed opinion.

Simply, is that your bar or do you feel it should be higher?
 

Mollywhopper

Facilitator
Staff member
But overall, it looks to me that it got worse as the years went along, after Rick Smith.
That's fine. I haven't looked it up but generally speaking that's fine.

So ya, if you may be so inclined to perhaps answer the question in your opinion..

Should we be looking to do significantly better or is that satisfactory?
 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
I'm sure I could. I'm sure you could too. I'm also sure that's not what I asked.

I asked if you thought those results were adequate or could/should be significantly improved upon.

You already stated you thought after revisiting the results yourself they 'look pretty good', so I'm certain you have a formed opinion.

Simply, is that your bar or do you feel it should be higher?
It should be higher, IMO, as OB inherited a fair line-up (which showed in the results immediately as he came to be the HC).

He had time to communicate with the GM (Rick Smith) in his drafting and FA philosophy; the type of players he wanted.

He wasn't hung out to dry.
 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
That's fine. I haven't looked it up but generally speaking that's fine.

So ya, if you may be so inclined to perhaps answer the question in your opinion..

Should we be looking to do significantly better or is that satisfactory?
To me, OB walked into a good place.

There was a decent foundation to build on.

While we're at the 2nd to 6th round thing; it's just gotten worse and worse after OB arrived; and even worse after Rick Smith left.
 

JB

Old Curmudgeon
Contributor's Club
Looking back at 2006-2012 drafts under Rick Smith (w/Kubiak), here are the rounds 2-6 players I would consider highlights (and by all means these are open to a degree of debate on what makes for a 'highlight' but by and large I think if you wanted to add one or two while wanting to disagree on one or two the net total may be pretty close to a wash)..

DeMeco Ryans
Eric Winston
Owen Daniels
Those three were drafted by Casserly
 

Rich Schmidt

Myopicone
Here is an article showing success rates using second contracts data. One way to call a draft pick successful, interesting read.

Players getting second contracts with their own or another team by round is something like:
R1: 80%
R2: 65%
R3: 50%
R4: 40%
R5: 28%
R6: 18%

The article breaks down whether it was your first team that resigned you or a second team. R1's are only resigned at a 30% clip by the drafting team. Part a miss where another team takes a chance and part maybe free market coming into play and finally some of the guys are just a dud.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Looking back at 2006-2012 drafts under Rick Smith (w/Kubiak), here are the rounds 2-6 players I would consider highlights (and by all means these are open to a degree of debate on what makes for a 'highlight' but by and large I think if you wanted to add one or two while wanting to disagree on one or two the net total may be pretty close to a wash)..

DeMeco Ryans
Eric Winston
Owen Daniels
Jacoby Jones
Steve Slaton
Connor Barwin
Glover Quin
Earl Mitchell
Brooks Reed
Brandon Brooks
Ben Jones

These are out of 40 total selections in that timeframe. 11 'hits'.

I don't know what the success rate is league wide for selections within those rounds in particular but we're looking at varying degrees of success in the 28% range.

Should we be looking to do significantly better or is that satisfactory?
RS wasn't with the team when Ryans
Daniels
Winston

Were picked, if he had had a few drafts like that one, there would have probably been a few Lombardi's down on Kirby.
 

Porky

Hall of Fame
I'm counting Metchie as an extra 2nd rd pick in this yrs draft, since he didn't play last year.
Counting on Metchie for anything is fool's gold. The kid has/had cancer - non-Hodgkins lymphoma. Do we even have an update on him or know his status?

I understand he has a highly curable cancer. I'm sure he'll be fine as a person, but as a football player? That's another level or several levels up. Even if he goes into remission or is declared cured, people need to understand how these treatments can zap your strength and endurance. He would be starting at close to square one again.

If he plays at all next year, I would consider it amazing. To play, and play to a very high level in 23, would be miraculous. We don't need to look far for the answer.

How long did it take DQ to come back from the same illness? Two years IIR to see the field, and 3 years to get close to his previous level. And he will likely never reach the potential he had although he has started some in NE this year.

People expecting him to be a stud are really expecting some miracle to occur. Can we please get back to reality instead of dreaming of some absolute best-case.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Counting on Metchie for anything is fool's gold. The kid has/had cancer - non-Hodgkins lymphoma. Do we even have an update on him or know his status?

I understand he has a highly curable cancer. I'm sure he'll be fine as a person, but as a football player? That's another level or several levels up. Even if he goes into remission or is declared cured, people need to understand how these treatments can zap your strength and endurance. He would be starting at close to square one again.

If he plays at all next year, I would consider it amazing. To play, and play to a very high level in 23, would be miraculous. We don't need to look far for the answer.

How long did it take DQ to come back from the same illness? Two years IIR to see the field, and 3 years to get close to his previous level. And he will likely never reach the potential he had although he has started some in NE this year.

People expecting him to be a stud are really expecting some miracle to occur. Can we please get back to reality instead of dreaming of some absolute best-case.
We will see

That's the reason I have WR high on the priority list in the draft.
 

Porky

Hall of Fame
We will see

That's the reason I have WR high on the priority list in the draft.
as do I so we agree. I like Johnston. Reminds me a little of AJ. Big , tall, physical guy, good catch radius, has some juice but not a true burner. I like him with the Browns pick if he is there.
 

zshawn10

All Pro

By the end of the year, the Texans were starting six rookies. First-round cornerback Derek Stingley had a strong season when healthy, with 6.6 yards allowed per target in nine starts. But he didn’t make anywhere near as many plays as second-round safety Jalen Pitre. If we add together tackles, assists, passes defended and turnovers, Pitre led all NFL safeties with 155 plays made as a rookie. The Texans also got 11 games started from linebacker Christian Harris, who had issues with broken tackles but was good in pass coverage.
On offense, Dameon Pierce was the starting running back for most of the season, with a fairly average season of 4.3 yards per carry. Kenyon Green started most of the season at left guard but doesn’t earn many Total Points because he finished near the top of the league in blown blocks. And Teagan Quitoriano was the starting tight end for the last third of the season, although he ended with just 113 receiving yards. The Texans should get even more out of this rookie class in the future if John Metchie can regain his health after a cancer diagnosis cost him his rookie campaign.
 

DocBar

Hall of Fame
Contributor's Club
Round 1: (60)No. 3 – Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU -
Round 1. (68) No. 15 (from PHI via MIA) – Kenyon Green, G, Texas A&M
Round 2:  (95)No. 37 – Jalen Pitre, S, Baylor
Round 2: (I)No. 44 (from CLE) – John Metchie III, WR, Alabama
Round 3: (85)No. 75 (from DEN) – Christian Harris, LB, Alabama
Round 4: (95)No. 107 (from DET via CLE) – Dameon Pierce, RB, Florida
Round 5: (82)No. 150 (from CHI) – Thomas Booker, DT, Stanford
Round 5: (78)No. 170 (from NE via TB) – Teagan Quitoriano, TE, Oregon State
Round 6: (75) No. 205 (from GB) – Austin Deculus, OT, LSU

71 c minus with Metchie
80 b minus w/o Metchie
What could you possibly have against Mechie? He hasn't seen the field due to cancer. WTF??
Now if you'd said 71 C minus due to Stingley over Gardner, I'd definitely agree with you. Taking Stingley over Gardner is gross negligence in the draft. My only real knock against Caserio so far.
 

AcresHomesTexan

No Longer Arlington: Escaped From Jerry's World
Staff member
What could you possibly have against Mechie? He hasn't seen the field due to cancer. WTF??
Now if you'd said 71 C minus due to Stingley over Gardner, I'd definitely agree with you. Taking Stingley over Gardner is gross negligence in the draft. My only real knock against Caserio so far.
It is math. Total points earned divided by the number drafted or total earned by taking only the players who played.
 
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