Based on what I heard and saw at the combine, however, here is a look at how Round 1 of the 2023NFL Draft could play out:
1. Indianapolis Colts (from Chicago): C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State* | Projected trade: Nos. 4 and 35 and a 2024 first-round pick to Chicago for No. 1
The speculation during combine week wasn’t about whether or not the Colts will draft a quarterback, it was: Which QB they will take? And how much will it cost?
The members of the triumvirate in charge of that decision each brings a differing perspective. Shane Steichen is entering his first draft as a head coach, Chris Ballard knows this could be his final draft as general manager if the wrong pick is made, and owner Jim Irsay is the wild card (as usual). Stroud might be the quarterback that’s the most comfortable choice for each person there. He is ready to compete for the starting job from Day 1 and his natural accuracy gives him a high floor as an NFL passer. (The Athletic’s Zak Keefer had similar thoughts from the combine.)
Obviously, trading up to No. 1 is an expensive move. But if the Colts stay at No. 4, they might find themselves with only their second- or even third-best quarterback option available. That isn’t good enough for a franchise that has been compromising at the position since Andrew Luck retired.
2. Houston Texans: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
Not everyone around the league is convinced the Texans will go quarterback here. With multiple first-round picks in next year’s draft, Houston could continue to build up its roster and look to nab a QB in 2024.
With Young still available in this scenario, though, it would be tough to pass up. A combination of DeMeco Ryans at head coach and Young at quarterback would bump the optimism levels in Houston sky high.
3. Arizona Cardinals: Will Anderson Jr., Edge, Alabama
4. Carolina Panthers (from Chicago): Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida* | Projected trade: Nos. 9, 61 and a 2024 first-round pick to Chicago for No. 4
5. Seattle Seahawks: Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia
6. Detroit Lions: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
7. Las Vegas Raiders: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
8. Atlanta Falcons: Tyree Wilson, Edge, Texas Tech
9. Chicago Bears (from Carolina): Lukas Van Ness, DL, Iowa*
10. New England (from Philadelphia): Peter Skoronski, OT/G, Northwestern* | Projected trade: Nos. 14, 76 and a 2024 fifth-round pick to Philadelphia for No. 10
11. Tennessee Titans: Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State
12. Houston Texans (from Cleveland): Nolan Smith, Edge, Georgia
Wide receiver is a popular pick for Texans here, understandably. Rather than reach on a pass-catcher, though, they could wait and still have plenty of options in Round 2.
Smith has the talent and character that would be an ideal fit for what Ryans and general manager Nick Caserio want to build on defense. Though he already figured to be in this range, Smith’s 1.52 10-yard split and 4.39 40-yard dash at the combine only helped his case.