It had been widely reported the
Carolina Panthers would select Alabama quarterback
Bryce Young at No. 1, clearing the runway for Houston to make its decision. But the Texans were still trying to reconcile their love for Alabama pass-rusher
Will Anderson Jr. with the sober realization they needed a franchise quarterback, according to multiple sources. In those final hours, the best guess among sources inside the Texans' facility was Anderson would be the pick at No. 2,
according to ESPN's Adam Schefter.
ACCORDING TO MULTIPLE sources, Anderson was the top-rated player on the Texans' draft board for most of the offseason -- ahead of Young, Stroud and every other quarterback available. Ryans played at Alabama and consulted with Crimson Tide coach Nick Saban throughout the pre-draft process, according to a source. Ryans envisioned Anderson as the kind of game-changing edge rusher all great defenses have, similar to the one he had built around in his previous job as the
San Francisco 49ers defensive coordinator:
Nick Bosa.
Anderson's pass-rush production at Alabama (34.5 career sacks) suggests he could flourish in Ryans' 4-3 scheme, although some teams around the league considered Texas Tech's
Tyree Wilson as an equal or better pass-rushing prospect. Anderson twice earned unanimous All-America honors as well as the Nagurski Trophy as college football's best defensive player, having compiled 130 pressures from 2021-22 -- 42 more than any other FBS player in that span.
The Texans haven't had a player produce a double-digit-sack season since J.J. Watt in 2018, and other than quarterback, there is arguably no position more valuable in the modern NFL than pass-rusher.
Ryans added he and Caserio were "on the same page" about Anderson's projections. But their consensus left a question. Could the Texans get away with drafting Anderson at No. 2 and then almost certainly missing out on a quarterback at No. 12?
Caserio was entering his third draft as Texans general manager. Watson's absence and subsequent departure had disrupted the team-building plan he arrived with, and circumstances left Caserio with few options. The Texans' previous regime had traded away their first- and second-round picks in 2021, so he selected quarterback
Davis Mills in the third round. The 2022 quarterback class was one of the weakest in memory and offered no options of value at the Texans' No. 3 overall pick, where Caserio selected LSU cornerback
Derek Stingley Jr. Pitt's
Kenny Pickett was the first quarterback of the board at No. 20.
But given the presence of Young, Stroud and Florida's
Anthony Richardson this year, it would be much harder to defend coming out of the draft without a more permanent solution. How could the Texans justify passing on a potential franchise quarterback to a fan base that had watched so much losing in the wake of Watson's departure?
UNDER THOSE CIRCUMSTANCES, some NFL owners would demand a quarterback. Texans chair and chief executive officer Cal McNair isn't one of them. Two days before the draft, Caserio told ESPN's Ed Werder that McNair had given him space to operate as he saw fit.
"The biggest thing he's just been supportive of what we're doing," Caserio said. "They've fully appreciated what we're trying to do. And they've enabled us the opportunity to kind of do what we feel is in the best interest of the organization."
Caserio acknowledged he would need to inform McNair "about what we're going to do and the rationale behind it," but added: "They've been great from the standpoint of just kind of allowing us to kind of work through it."
At the same time, an NFC front-office source said Caserio did not need a push from the owner to know he needed a quarterback. On top of compiling the NFL's worst record over that span, primary starter, Mills, has ranked No. 32 in the league in Total Quarterback Rating. Ryans is his third coach in as many seasons. Caserio is running out of time to give the Texans hope, much less turn them into a winner.
Stroud was the team's next-highest-ranked quarterback after Young. Caserio said later in the post-draft news conference: "He's a competitive player, has an edge about him in a good way, loves football, wants to compete, wants to be great. Good size, comes from a good program." He added: "Certainly has a long way to go. I think he'll admit that."
But neither Caserio nor Ryans could shake the idea of losing Anderson in the pursuit of a quarterback. So in the days leading up to the draft, Caserio set out to see if he could move up high enough from No. 12 to get both.
He had preliminary talks with Cardinals general manager Monti Ossenfort, with whom he had worked with the
New England Patriots from 2003 to 2004 and 2006 to 2019, to find out "whether or not this was something we were interested in doing," he said. Later, he asked the
Indianapolis Colts (No. 4) and the
Seattle Seahawks (No. 5) about their interest levels.
Ultimately, sources said, the Texans were concerned the Tennessee Titans could trade up from No. 11 to No. 3 to draft Stroud. And if the Cardinals opted to keep their pick, Anderson would have been a prime target for them.
Buzz around the league at the time centered around the Texans' apparent preference for Anderson. Caserio's time with the Patriots taught him the value of keeping his business secret, and only a handful of people knew he was working to move into the Cardinals' spot. In the days leading up to Thursday night, according to sources, people who had personal relationships with Caserio in Houston and New England tried to get an idea what he was up to. They couldn't. Stroud's agent, David Mulugheta, did not know that the Texans would target Stroud if they could make the trade, although Caserio did tell Werder that Mulugheta's previous representation of Watson would have no effect on their decision.
In reality, the Texans didn't know what was going to happen, either. Ossenfort and the Cardinals drove a hard bargain, which is why the best guess from Texans sources Thursday afternoon was Anderson would be the pick. But as the draft opened, Caserio was confident enough in the pending deal that he selected Stroud at No. 2. (Had he chosen Anderson first, the Cardinals might have gotten new offers at No. 3 from teams seeking either Stroud or Richardson.) But there was no wizardry involved as he and Ossenfort agreed on the trade during the 10-minute allotment they had at No. 3.
To get the deal done, Caserio committed the second-biggest overpayment of draft capital for a non-quarterback in the past 20 drafts, according to ESPN Analytics' approximate value-based draft-pick valuations tool.
The only deal for a non-quarterback during the past 20 drafts to exceed the Texans' deal was the
Atlanta Falcons' move from No. 27 to No. 6 in 2011 to select receiver
Julio Jones. The Falcons also gave up their first-round pick in 2012, two second-round picks and a fourth-round pick.
A closer comparison can be traced to 2013, when the Dolphins traded with the Raiders to also move up from No. 12 to No. 3. The Dolphins drafted pass-rusher
Dion Jordan at No. 3. In exchange, they gave up only a second-round pick (No. 42 overall).
Writing on Twitter, former Philadelphia Eagles and Browns executive Joe Banner called the Texans' trade last week "one of the biggest overpayments of all time."
Internally, the Texans settled Thursday on a more nuanced justification, according to sources. They considered the trade to be their cost for drafting a quarterback. Without it, they wouldn't have drafted Stroud and would have missed out on Richardson. Anderson would have been the pick. It wasn't a secret. It wasn't a smokescreen. It was a frenzied conclusion of their efforts to find a different answer to the either/or question.