2019 NFL Mock drafts.

[infantrycak]

Exactly .... the straw that breaks the back, (final consideration), is need !

But that's a far cry from the typical draftnik thing of putting needs 1st saying needs, in order are - LT, CB, RT, OG so then projecting (forcing) selections in that order.

 

[OptimisticTexan]

I'd draw up my board to reflect positions of need. I'd assign players to the positions of need for each round. As the picks come up, then I'd go BPA based on my board. If an athlete from a non position of need slides down and my targets are still on the board.....I'm trading back b/c that athlete may be high on some other teams board. Would I really be making a bad decision if a top QB who was projected to go earlier somehow slipped to 23 and no I'm taking calls for that pick?

 

[JB]

I'd draw up my board to reflect positions of need. I'd assign players to the positions of need for each round. As the picks come up, then I'd go BPA based on my board. If an athlete from a non position of need slides down and my targets are still on the board.....I'm trading back b/c that athlete may be high on some other teams board. Would I really be making a bad decision if a top QB who was projected to go earlier somehow slipped to 23 and no I'm taking calls for that pick?

And the chance of taking 7 safeties is nil. Teams adjust their boards continuously

 

[Mollywhopper]

Walking and chewing gum..

 

[OptimisticTexan]

And the chance of taking 7 safeties is nil. Teams adjust their boards continuously

So, if teams were adhering to the strict BPA playbook......what would be their premises for adjusting their board and what rule would they be implementing when changing their board?

 

[justmy2cents]

So, if teams were adhering to the strict BPA playbook......what would be their premises for adjusting their board and what rule would they be implementing when changing their board?

I think accurate description would be something like .... "best player available - in your area, or one of your areas, of need." The reason I'm so focused on offensive line, (especially Dillard or Williams), is because without DW4, we are completely impotent.

 

[Mollywhopper]

So, if teams were adhering to the strict BPA playbook......what would be their premises for adjusting their board and what rule would they be implementing when changing their board?

Weighing talent vs need, while doing everything possible to lean talent as often as possible.

 

[OptimisticTexan]

Weighing talent vs need, while doing everything possible to lean talent as often as possible.

If this method did not yield answers to a teams needs going into the draft and like the Texans, didn't get those answers via FA.....what kind of season would you expect if you're facing more of the same?

 

[Mollywhopper]

If this method did not yield answers to a teams needs going into the draft and like the Texans, didn't get those answers via FA.....what kind of season would you expect if you're facing more of the same?

Loaded question much?

 

[ObsiWan]

BPA is never considered in a vacuum.

practically, you are correct.

but...
by the strict sense of the term "BPA" should be the highest graded player on your board, regardless of position or need.

 

[infantrycak]

practically, you are correct.

but...
by the strict sense of the term "BPA" should be the highest graded player on your board, regardless of position or need.

Which is why the discussion every year is stupid because absolutely nobody drafts that way.

 

[AcresHomesTexan]

Hope this helps with BPA...pretty sure someone explains this every draft season (thought i did early this year), but here is a link (and there have been others)

https://gbnreport.com/features/draft-day-theories/

Here’s how BPA works, at least in theory. First, we give each veteran on a particular team a numerical grade which we will call their hypothetical player value (HPV) on a scale of ten. Then a team with a WR with HPV of 8 and an OG with a HPV of 6 and arrives at the draft and has a choice of two players: a WR with an HPV of 9 and an OG with an HPV of 8. Obviously by taking the OG the team would increase its value at that position by 2 points whereas by taking the WR their total HPV would rise only 1 point. In the short ternm the team would increase its total HPV by taking the OG. However, if a team did the same thing over a period of years, that is, took the player with a HPV of 8 at a position of need, but passed on a 9 at another position, at the end of a 5-year period, for example, that team would have a total HPV of 40 from the 5 picks, whereas the higher graded players would have added a total of 45, and everything else being equal a much better team. Given the incredible vagaries of pro football careers – injuries, FA defections, and the fact that all players develop differently and at different paces – this year’s crisis at OG, for example, may have been solved by an undrafted FA no one counted on, while one at another position suffers a career ending knee injury – drafting the best player available simply maximizes your odds of having the best possible team over the long haul.

Of course, when a team makes its pick there is often not such a clear difference between players; in fact there may be several players with a similar ranking and that’s when that team can focus on which of those players/positions will help that particular team the most.

in short, most of the time when a team drafts a player there are a bunch of guys rated pretty much the same (say 84-86 at 5 positions)...a team won't blindly take an 86 player at a low need position, but It would do so if that player is rated a 93 in the teams eye.

 

[Texansphan]

Hope this helps with BPA...pretty sure someone explains this every draft season (thought i did early this year), but here is a link (and there have been others)

https://gbnreport.com/features/draft-day-theories/




in short, most of the time when a team drafts a player there are a bunch of guys rated pretty much the same (say 84-86 at 5 positions)...a team won't blindly take an 86 player at a low need position, but It would do so if that player is rated a 93 in the teams eye.

A grade assigned to a player is subjective and arbitrary.
I would ask, "whose BPA?" Iow, where does this grade come from?
To be a true BPA, it would have to be a consensus from among all the accepted graders to arrive at a final grade number and I don't think that happens.
One only has to look at all the different big boards to see how widely varied they are after the middle of the first round and even then, there are slight differences among the top half.
Then like you say, each individual team may have their own grade designations.
This is why we see "reaches" every year.
That is why I attempted an aggregate draft position for the top 100 a month or so ago.

 

[AcresHomesTexan]

Which is why the discussion every year is stupid because absolutely nobody drafts that way.

A grade assigned to a player is subjective and arbitrary.
I would ask, "whose BPA?" Iow, where does this grade come from?
To be a true BPA, it would have to be a consensus from among all the accepted graders to arrive at a final grade number and I don't think that happens.
One only has to look at all the different big boards to see how widely varied they are after the middle of the first round and even then, there are slight differences among the top half.
Then like you say, each individual team may have their own grade designations.
This is why we see "reaches" every year.
That is why I attempted an aggregate draft position for the top 100 a month or so ago.

There is no such thing as a reach because there is no objective, universal draft board and the actual event the draft is not wrong. The idea that a player's general grade versus the team-specific grade is the false premise that NFL draft discussion exists. Usually, our speculation about the draft is proven incorrect by pick five or so, but instead going our speculation is wrong, the draftsperts falsely act like the individual team or teams are wrong.

 

[Lucky]

The idea that a player's general grade versus the team-specific grade is the false premise that NFL draft discussion exists. Usually, our speculation about the draft is proven incorrect by pick five or so, but instead going our speculation is wrong, the draftsperts falsely act like the individual team or teams are wrong.

I think "team specific grade" hits the nail on the head. The evaluation of players across the 32 draft boards takes on a bi-conical shape.

Initially, the opinions are close as to whom are the superior players. As the draft moves on (and into UDFA signings), opinions on players scatter. Eventually the pool of talent thins, and teams opinions become closer together (these guys can't play).

 

[steelbtexan]

There is no such thing as a reach because there is no objective, universal draft board and the actual event the draft is not wrong. The idea that a player's general grade versus the team-specific grade is the false premise that NFL draft discussion exists. Usually, our speculation about the draft is proven incorrect by pick five or so, but instead going our speculation is wrong, the draftsperts falsely act like the individual team or teams are wrong.

Teams also get the draft wrong.

I mean several posters on this MB could've done a better job of drafting than the former GM did over the last decade.

 

[infantrycak]

Teams also get the draft wrong.

I mean several posters on this MB could've done a better job of drafting than the former GM did over the last decade.

At least that's what you pat yourselves on the back about. There have been plenty of bust, way mis-valued, etc. suggestions as well. They just get conveniently forgotten.

Classic example, draftniks around here wanted to collectively give their left nuts for Darnell Bing and lamented the drafting of Owen Daniels. Bing's career encompassed 5 tackles and 0 starts.

 

[Texansphan]

At least that's what you pat yourselves on the back about. There have been plenty of bust, way mis-valued, etc. suggestions as well. They just get conveniently forgotten.

Classic example, draftniks around here wanted to collectively give their left nuts for Darnell Bing and lamented the drafting of Owen Daniels. Bing's career encompassed 5 tackles and 0 starts.

I think the grading process has evolved to a more exact science than 20 years ago with the advent and explosion of information available on the internet plus advances in training methods, medicine, surgery and diet, etc,.

 

[AcresHomesTexan]

Teams also get the draft wrong.

I mean several posters on this MB could've done a better job of drafting than the former GM did over the last decade.

yeah, of course, professionals aren't perfect and should be held accountable when their multi-year history say they are not good at drafting.

Bullspit on mock drafters who thump their chest about the 6th round stud they "mocked" to the Texans and ignore the f'ups in the previous 3 rounds or the fact dude had been taken in mock draft version 8.0 done in the comfort of their home.

I did a mock draft for about a dozen years (kffl.com) and its much easier to play GM each year without being responsible for what you did previously(this draft or previous years) or with the real idea that other grown-ass professional men are influencing the decisions that a GM makes on a pick.

 

[JB]

I think the grading process has evolved to a more exact science than 20 years ago with the advent and explosion of information available on the internet plus advances in training methods and diet, etc,.

But there's still 32 versions of who grades what

 

[Texansphan]

But there's still 32 versions of who grades what

Heh, then add in all the draft "experts" like the Zeirlines and Jeremiahs and Charlie Campbells of this world.

 

[steelbtexan]

yeah, of course, professionals aren't perfect and should be held accountable when their multi-year history say they are not good at drafting.

Bullspit on mock drafters who thump their chest about the 6th round stud they "mocked" to the Texans and ignore the f'ups in the previous 3 rounds or the fact dude had been taken in mock draft version 8.0 done in the comfort of their home.

I did a mock draft for about a dozen years (kffl.com) and its much easier to play GM each year without being responsible for what you did previously(this draft or previous years) or with the real idea that other grown-ass professional men are influencing the decisions that a GM makes on a pick.

Agreed

But this isn't the brain surgery some make it out to be.

Just pick the best players you can get with some attention being given to need and you will have a great draft.

The best draft pick the Texans have ever made wasn't at a position of need when he was picked. One, JJ Watt, Thanks Wade.

 

[Lucky]

Teams also get the draft wrong.

I mean several posters on this MB could've done a better job of drafting than the former GM did over the last decade.

Give enough monkeys typewriters, one will eventually pen a Pulitzer Prize novel. Hundreds of thousands of draftniks. Only 32 GMs at one time.

 

[JB]

Heh, then add in all the draft "experts" like the Zeirlines and Jeremiahs and Charlie Campbells of this world.

Yeah and other than Gossage, very few come close to 50% regularly on player & team

 

[steelbtexan]

delete

 

[Lucky]

Yeah and other than Gossage, very few come close to 50% regularly on player & team

Rick Gosselin of the Dallas Morning News. He stopped doing his mocks and top 100 prospects several years ago. He readily admitted his final mock and top 100 list were a consolidation of the opinions of his vast network of NFL insiders. No one else had or has had his connections regarding the draft.

 

[JB]

Rick Gosselin of the Dallas Morning News. He stopped doing his mocks and top 100 prospects several years ago. He readily admitted his final mock and top 100 list were a consolidation of the opinions of his vast network of NFL insiders. No one else had or has had his connections regarding the draft.

Thanks for that correction... he was the mock guru for quite awhile

 

[Lucky]

Thanks for that correction... he was the mock guru for quite awhile

You could pretty much take Gosslin's last mock to the bank. I think one year, he hit 89 out of the top 100 players taken. Crazy.

Edit: Gosselin's last mock was was 2011. He hit on 29 of the 32 taken in the 1st round. 14 in the mock were at the selection number Gosselin predicted. 8 of the first 9 on the nose. Talk about going out in a blaze of glory.

 

[AcresHomesTexan]

Agreed

But this isn't the brain surgery some make it out to be.

Just pick the best players you can get with some attention being given to need and you will have a great draft.

The best draft pick the Texans have ever made wasn't at a position of need when he was picked. One, JJ Watt, Thanks Wade.

Not brain surgery, but a different game when you a responsible for who on the list and the order those guys appear. Not an accident that some GMs are better than others. especially when considering most of the work of the draft is not the most public act of writing a name on 3 by 5 card.

 

[infantrycak]

You could pretty much take Gosslin's last mock to the bank. I think one year, he hit 89 out of the top 100 players taken. Crazy.

Just to be clear that was just within the 1st 100. It wasn't round, pick, team. It was impressive but should also give pause to those who act like the draft is easy or has any clarity.

 

[steelbtexan]

Just to be clear that was just within the 1st 100. It wasn't round, pick, team. It was impressive but should also give pause to those who act like the draft is easy or has any clarity.

Yep, that's why a good GM prepares for everything.

Gaine is very thorough and this is a strength of his.

With this said, it aint the brain surgery some make the draft out to be.

 

[steelbtexan]

You could pretty much take Gosslin's last mock to the bank. I think one year, he hit 89 out of the top 100 players taken. Crazy.

Edit: Gosselin's last mock was was 2011. He hit on 29 of the 32 taken in the 1st round. 14 in the mock were at the selection number Gosselin predicted. 8 of the first 9 on the nose. Talk about going out in a blaze of glory.

Goose is very well connected around the NFL.

 

[JB]

Yep, that's why a good GM prepares for everything.

Gaine is very thorough and this is a strength of his.

With this said, it aint the brain surgery some make the draft out to be.

There's a lot of scientific luck involved

 

[infantrycak]

There's a lot of scientific luck involved

SWAG - scientific wild ass guess.

 

[steelbtexan]

SWAG - scientific wild ass guess.

Some are better than others.

Gaine appears to be in the better category.

 

[ObsiWan]

Some are luckier than others.

Gaine appears to be in the better category.

fixed it for you

 

[steelbtexan]

fixed it for you

You know who seems to be real lucky at drafting? Scott McLoughan

To bad his drinking issues derailed his career.

 

[ObsiWan]

Is that why Washington fired him?
....or because he couldn't pin down Kirk Cousins?

 

[JB]

Is that why Washington fired him?
....or because he couldn't pin down Kirk Cousins?

Or because he's not near as good as what steelb thinks?

Or is saying today anywho?

 

[infantrycak]

Or because he's not near as good as what steelb thinks?

Or is saying today anywho?

He was only in Washington for 2 drafts. Not sure what's lucky about taking a WR in the 1st who has totaled 1100 yds in 3 seasons.

 

[infantrycak]

Or because he's not near as good as what steelb thinks?

Or is saying today anywho?

He was only in Washington for 2 drafts. Not sure what's lucky about taking a WR in the 1st who has totaled 1100 yds in 3 seasons.

 

[JB]

He was only in Washington for 2 drafts. Not sure what's lucky about taking a WR in the 1st who has totaled 1100 yds in 3 seasons.

repeats not like you at all... j/s

 

[steelbtexan]

Is that why Washington fired him?
....or because he couldn't pin down Kirk Cousins?

He was the scouting director that helped build Harbaugh's 49ers.

He was the GM that found Russell Wilson and helped build the Seahawks.

He lost a power struggle with Bruce Allen. 2 yrs isn't long enough to have his vision carried out.

He recommended Mayfield to Dorsey and the Brown's.

I would say he's pretty good at what he does.

 

[Lucky]

Mel Kiper's latest 3 round mock draft has this as the Texans haul:

Houston Texans

Round 1 (23): Andre Dillard, OT, Washington State

Round 2 (54): Damien Harris, RB, Alabama

Round 2 (55): Darnell Savage Jr., S, Maryland

Round 3 (86): Antoine Wesley, WR, Texas Tech

With three picks in the top 55, Houston has to address its offensive line, one of the NFL's worst last season. The Texans should think about using two of those three picks on linemen. For now, let's stick with Dillard, who started at left tackle for the Cougars but could play on the right side. I have called him the best true pass-blocker in this class. On Day 2, Houston could add competition for Lamar Miller with Harris, a reliable and runner and pass-catcher, although he's not as explosive as his former teammate Josh Jacobs. Savage had seven interceptions over the past two seasons and could compete with Tashaun Gipson for the other safety spot next to Justin Reid. Wesley is a 6-foot-4 giant with good ball skills and a 37-inch vertical.

Getting Dillard would have many fans here crying tears of joy. I don't have any problems with any particular day 2 pick. Just prefer one of them to be a CB.

 

[Seegara]

Thought a thread with a bunch of mocks from the experts might be educational for us all.
I'll start with one from cbssports writer Chris Trapasso that will have Texans fans jubilant if it falls this way - for us at least.

That mock can't even be taken seriously. He has Kyler Murray falling to 13th.

 

[JB]

Mel Kiper's latest 3 round mock draft has this as the Texans haul:



Getting Dillard would have many fans here crying tears of joy. I don't have any problems with any particular day 2 pick. Just prefer one of them to be a CB.

Yeah, I don't think the Texans would take a RB in round 2 unless Jacobs fell and I think they take CB before S. And maybe another in round 3

 

[Texansphan]

That mock can't even be taken seriously. He has Kyler Murray falling to 13th.

Stranger things have happened.
Prospective teams may baulk at his size.
I really can't see Texans taking Greg Little ahead of Byron Murphy, Dexter Lawrence or Andre Dillard.
Personally I wouldn't be upset with any of these four.

 

[beerlover]

That mock can't even be taken seriously. He has Kyler Murray falling to 13th.

I did like this post so I can unlike Texans, if sekect Little in first round.

Stranger things have happened.
Prospective teams may baulk at his size.
I really can't see Texans taking Greg Little ahead of Byron Murphy, Dexter Lawrence or Andre Dillard.
Personally I wouldn't be upset with any of these four.

Like this post so I can unlike Texans if they select Little in first round. How far has Kipper dropped in respect after 20 plus years being treated like some kind of draft guru!

 

[Texansphan]

I did like this post so I can unlike Texans, if sekect Little in first round.


Like this post so I can unlike Texans if they select Little in first round. How far has Kipper dropped in respect after 20 plus years being treated like some kind of draft guru!

He may yet be right - we won't have to wait too long to find out!
It's possible he may be privvy to info we are not.

 

[JB]

I did like this post so I can unlike Texans, if sekect Little in first round.


Like this post so I can unlike Texans if they select Little in first round. How far has Kipper dropped in respect after 20 plus years being treated like some kind of draft guru!

What does Kiper have to do with his quote?