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2019 NFL Mock drafts.

infantrycak said:
Which still doesn't mean 1st round pick if you are passing on a substantially better player at another position of need.

OTs/LTs come from rounds other than the 1st. The FA everyone is clamoring for is a 7th rounder. His bookend was 5.138. The Rams OTs were picked 2.55 & 2.57.
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OK if we can get our LT in FA this will give Gaine great latitude in the Draft giving him the luxury of going BPA.
 
IDEXAN said:
OK if we can get our LT in FA this will give Gaine great latitude in the Draft giving him the luxury of going BPA.
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I believe it is going to take a minimum of 2 years to repair the secondary as well as the Oline - too many holes.
Problem is, it can get real expensive real fast to build a bullet proof secondary so probably falling back on the old clique here - "the battle is won in the trenches" - is the best philosophy going forward.
Which is why I would not be averse to a quality pass rusher being taken at #23, if one lands in our lap which is a distinct possibility in this draft.
The other side of the coin is that there is no point getting the opposing offense off the field if yours is going to continually get kicked off it in return so a solid Oline - the trench guys, is not a luxury, but a necessity in todays game and also helps protect your QB.
You have simply got to consistently score TDs and a strong line is paramount here.
 
banned1976 said:
My prediction is, if Hockenson is still on the board at 23 the Texans war room is taking all their time on the clock debating taking him. And it would neither surprise or disappoint me if he was the pick.
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He is all over the mock boards - some have him going inside the top 10, others have him falling to us and beyond.
It will depend on who is still on the board as to how long any debates last.
Like you, I would not be upset with him taken at #23.
I notice that some have Fant going before him also.
Tricky.
 
Texansphan said:
He is all over the mock boards - some have him going inside the top 10, others have him falling to us and beyond.
It will depend on who is still on the board as to how long any debates last.
Like you, I would not be upset with him taken at #23.
I notice that some have Fant going before him also.
Tricky.
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Hockenson is a very good pass blocker. Why I like him over Fant in this offense.
 
banned1976 said:
Hockenson is a very good pass blocker. Why I like him over Fant in this offense.
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I have seen it said somewhere that he is the best TE prospect to come out in recent years.
High praise when you consider some of the ones that were highly touted in that time.
I would not be upset if Texans took him at #23.
 
Texansphan said:
I have seen it said somewhere that he is the best TE prospect to come out in recent years.
High praise when you consider some of the ones that were highly touted in that time.
I would not be upset if Texans took him at #23.
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That would be a tough call for me if I could have Hockenson at 23 but lose Risner before 54. I've already got the Jordan's in the fold for 2019 and the OL would still be in question. If Risner is projected as an early RD2, then that puts him in no man's land for me. I could trade back, get another pick out of the move and take my chances but I'm not risking pieces while trying to improve the OL.
 
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OptimisticTexan said:
That would be a tough call for me if I could have Hockenson at 23 but lose Risner before 54. I've already got the Jordan's in the fold for 2019 and the OL would still be in question. If Risner is projected as an early RD2, then that puts him in no man's land for me. I could trade back, get another pick out of the move and take my chances but I'm not risking pieces while trying to improve the OL.
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Good news is in this scenario (I read on Rotoworld) Gaine is exploring trading back.
 
OptimisticTexan said:
I like this.....b/c I think the team trying to move up 2-3 spots is far more desperate than a team wanting to move up from 10+ spots back.....just a thought.
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It appears to me that Gaine has a group of OT's Risner/Little/Cajuste/McGarry all rated as low 1st rd/high 2nd rd picks and is going to use that leverage to get another pick or 2.

If Gaine moves back to say 32 because BB really wants Hockenson in this scenario what extra compensation would he get? The Cowboys/Browns did a similar trade and the Browns got what is the equivalent of switching spots and getting a 2020 1st rd pick.
 
steelbtexan said:
It appears to me that Gaine has a group of OT's Risner/Little/Cajuste/McGarry all rated as low 1st rd/high 2nd rd picks and is going to use that leverage to get another pick or 2.

If Gaine moves back to say 32 because BB really wants Hockenson in this scenario what extra compensation would he get? The Cowboys/Browns did a similar trade and the Browns got what is the equivalent of switching spots and getting a 2020 1st rd pick.
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Why?
 
steelbtexan said:
If Gaine moves back to say 32 because BB really wants Hockenson in this scenario what extra compensation would he get?
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They would probably swap 3rd round picks and the Texans get the 2nd comp pick at the end of the 3rd (HOU gets #73 + #101, NE gets #86).
 
Texansphan said:
I have seen it said somewhere that he is the best TE prospect to come out in recent years.
High praise when you consider some of the ones that were highly touted in that time.
I would not be upset if Texans took him at #23.
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I heard Bill Polian on NFL Sirius XM that Hockenson wasn't rated as highly as Ebron or OJ Howard when they came out. FWIW. As far as testing and production are concerned, Hockenson is probably closer to Tyler Eifert, who was a 2013 pick by the Bengals @ #21.
 
JB said:
Why?
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Because there's a 2nd tier group of OT's just below Dillard/Taylor/Williams that are very similar. None of who will be available at 23. So you can trade up and get one of the top 3 OT's. Or you can trade down and get an extra pick or 2 and get the same value you would get at 23. That's if you can find a trade partner. I'm in the trade up mode because I think Dillard would be worth a 2nd rd pick. It looks like Gaine feels differently.

Same Same with these guys My tier 1 is Greedy/Long/Murphy. After that you get the Justin Layne/Isiah Johnson's/Mullen/Baker's in the 2nd tier. The 2nd tier is almost as talented as the 1st tier so trading down makes alot of sense.
 
steelbtexan said:
Because there's a 2nd tier group of OT's just below Dillard/Taylor/Williams that are very similar. None of who will be available at 23. So you can trade up and get one of the top 3 OT's. Or you can trade down and get an extra pick or 2 and get the same value you would get at 23. That's if you can find a trade partner. I'm in the trade up mode because I think Dillard would be worth a 2nd rd pick. It looks like Gaine feels differently.

Same Same with these guys My tier 1 is Greedy/Long/Murphy. After that you get the Justin Layne/Isiah Johnson's/Mullen/Baker's in the 2nd tier. The 2nd tier is almost as talented as the 1st tier so trading down makes alot of sense.
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But why on earth do you think Gaine thinks like you do? He may not consider any of the OT's worth 23. He may not think he has to address OT in the draft at all. He may consider someone we haven't talked about much at all in the 1st. Much like RS did with KJo and Mercilus... I just don't get how you can claim to 'know' his thinking
 
Lucky said:
I heard Bill Polian on NFL Sirius XM that Hockenson wasn't rated as highly as Ebron or OJ Howard when they came out. FWIW. As far as testing and production are concerned, Hockenson is probably closer to Tyler Eifert, who was a 2013 pick by the Bengals @ #21.
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TE's typically take a year or two to adjust depending on the system and that is not optimal usage of a first round pick imo.
Hockenson definitively checks both key boxes as far as TE production goes though - blocking and catching and that increases his value. Helps the oline and gives Watson a possible hot read - both of which are sorely needed.
 
JB said:
But why on earth do you think Gaine thinks like you do? He may not consider any of the OT's worth 23. He may not think he has to address OT in the draft at all. He may consider someone we haven't talked about much at all in the 1st. Much like RS did with KJo and Mercilus... I just don't get how you can claim to 'know' his thinking
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I dont claim to know his thinking.

All GM's have prospects ranked in tiers.

The only way he would be willing to trade down is if he is pretty sure he can get the the same quality of draftee at say 32 that he can get at 23, or else making a trade wouldn't make sense. It's really pretty simple.
 
steelbtexan said:
I dont claim to know his thinking.

All GM's have prospects ranked in tiers.

The only way he would be willing to trade down is if he is pretty sure he can get the the same quality of draftee at say 32 that he can get at 23, or else making a trade wouldn't make sense. It's really pretty simple.
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Other than your comment of 'I read it on Rotoworld' I have seen nothing about Gaine wanting to trade back, but all GM's would 'explore' trading back if they got a value package
 
steelbtexan said:
I dont claim to know his thinking.

All GM's have prospects ranked in tiers.

The only way he would be willing to trade down is if he is pretty sure he can get the the same quality of draftee at say 32 that he can get at 23, or else making a trade wouldn't make sense. It's really pretty simple.
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Like trading back for Duane Brown, coincidentally from #23. And admirably just in front of San Diego who wanted him.
 
JB said:
Other than your comment of 'I read it on Rotoworld' I have seen nothing about Gaine wanting to trade back, but all GM's would 'explore' trading back if they got a value package
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I was just telling you what I read from what I consider to be a reputable source.
 
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steelbtexan said:
Good news is in this scenario (I read on Rotoworld) Gaine is exploring trading back.
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Which might be predicated upon landing Trent Brown in FA otherwise he might be looking to trade up rather than trading back.
So what's the # SteelB, how many Benjamins should our young GM be willing commit to land TB in free agency ?
 
IDEXAN said:
Which might be predicated upon landing Trent Brown in FA otherwise he might be looking to trade up rather than trading back.
So what's the # SteelB, how many Benjamins should our young GM be willing commit to land TB in free agency ?
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We're on the same page.

5 yrs 75 mil with 30-35 mil guaranteed.
 
Lucky said:
I heard Bill Polian on NFL Sirius XM that Hockenson wasn't rated as highly as Ebron or OJ Howard when they came out. FWIW. As far as testing and production are concerned, Hockenson is probably closer to Tyler Eifert, who was a 2013 pick by the Bengals @ #21.
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I'd take a Tyler Eifert-type guy over that Griffin guy we have now.
 
Interesting mock from Mel Kiper. I haven't paid much attention to Mel this year. So much draft information from so many sources. But, he's still Mel Kiper.

23. Houston Texans: Andre Dillard, OT, Washington State

As I wrote last time, the Texans' biggest weakness in 2018 was their offensive line, as they gave up a league-high 62 sacks. And I don't have a lot of faith that Matt Kalil is the answer. So let's give them Dillard (6-foot-5, 315 pounds), one of the best pass-protectors in this class and a true left tackle. Houston could also address its secondary, which lost several impact players in free agency.
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Kiper has Dillard as the 5th O-lineman off the board. Greedy Williams goes to the Chiefs at pick #29. Is Kiper over the hill? Has he lost his sources in the league and no longer relevant? Maybe. But take a look at the teams going OL ahead of the Texans (Jags, Vikings, Seahawks, Ravens). These are teams that want to run the football. And despite how well Dillard has pass blocked during his career, he's probably not even among the top 10 OTs in this draft as a run blocker. Some teams are going to knock Dillard because of this.

Of course, the Texans love to run the ball, too. Would they be a team to downgrade Dillard? Or is their need to improve the pass blocking along the line so dire, they would overlook Dillard's deficiency in the run game? I believe the answer is that the Texans would put pass blocking proficiency above run blocking. But, I also think other teams would value Dillard's pass blocking. So maybe Dillard doesn't go top 10, which looked likely after the combine. Getting to #23 is a different matter.
 
Evan Silva

✔@evansilva
https://twitter.com/evansilva/status/1111299928393990145

#Texans have a top half of the league roster but their offensive line is the worst in football & they've done next to nothing to upgrade it this offseason.

Here, @JoshNorris constructed a mock draft that addresses at least some of the Texans' holes: https://www.rotoworld.com/article/draft-analysis/nfl-draft-needs-texans …

https://twitter.com/intent/like?tweet_id=1111299928393990145

11:12 AM - Mar 28, 2019

TEAM NEEDS
Silva's Analysis
Offensive Line: Although Watson added stress to Houston’s pass protection by holding onto the ball at the NFL’s second-highest rate (2.84 seconds) last season, the Texans’ line did him no favors by yielding league highs in sack rate (10.9%) and QB hit rate (24.1%) and finishing 27th in Football Outsiders’ run-blocking metric. GM Brian Gaine’s lone offensive line addition so far is Matt Kalil, who struggled badly with the 2017 Panthers and didn’t play football last year due to chronic knee injuries.

Cornerback: Sorely lacking speed at outside corner, only three NFL defenses coughed up more completions of 40-plus yards (13) than last year’s Texans. Joseph turns 35 in April, and Roby is playing on a one-year deal. Colvin disappointed in his Houston debut.

Pass Rusher: No Texans need is remotely as glaring as offensive line, but there is room for depth reinforcements throughout one of the NFL’s thinnest rosters. The drop-off from Houston’s starting defensive front to its top reserves is among the largest in the league, and the Texans could stand to upgrade their backfield with Miller continually underwhelming and Foreman coming off a lost year.



TEXANS 2019 DRAFT PICKS
Norris' Options
1 (23). T Kaleb McGary, Washington - Best player available is a myth. If you’re living in reality, you know that draft picks are based on the highest grade available, and grades factor in need either consciously or subconsciously. McGary is a mammoth with plenty of right tackle experience. If he gets his hands on you in proper position, you’re done. It’s over.

2 (54). Acquired from Seahawks in Duane Brown trade - CB Rock Ya-Sin, Temple - Rarely do you see a player make the FCS to FBS jump as a graduate student. Ya-Sin instantly belonged and consistently showcased a blend of movement to mirror and stay in phase during breaks and also physicality to disrupt on press situations.

2 (55). OL Michael Deiter, Wisconsin - For an offensive line that has holes just about everywhere, why not add a prospect who has experience playing just about every position? Deiter likely won’t stay at tackle despite lining up there in 2017. His future is on the inside at guard or center, and perhaps taking over for Senio Kelemete sooner than later.

3 (86). RB Miles Sanders, Penn State - I know running back isn’t a top need listed by Evan, but hear me out. Lamar Miller is on the final year of his deal. We don’t know if D’Onta Foreman will return to full health. Enter Sanders, who constantly showcased his skills to make defenders miss in the open field and can aid a team in the running and passing games.

5 (161). DL Michael Dogbe, Temple - Dogbe is one of my favorite third-day prospects. He’s an outstanding athlete who has outside experience but might win more consistently on the inside in the NFL.

6 (195). CB Corey Ballentine, Washburn - One of the more athletic corners in the class who tested in the 96th percentile. He has an easy path to special teams in the NFL while developing as a defensive back.

7 (220). WR Ryan Davis, Auburn - The Texans prioritized the inside passing game last offseason. It didn’t really work out, with Coutee and Jordan Akins failing to meet expectations for various reasons. Davis could operate as a backup slot receiver and is great after the catch.
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Mock Draft Survey 11.0 (post 3/13)

OL Andre Dillard, Washington State 6-5, 310
Mocked to Texans by:
ESPN (Mel Kiper, Jr.) on 3/26
CBS Sports (R.J. White) on 3/26
South Florida Sun Sentinel (Omar Kelly) on 3/25
SB Nation (Dan Kadar) on 3/25
CBS Sports (Ryan Wilson) on 3/25
USA Today (Luke Easterling) on 3/21

OL Cody Ford, Oklahoma 6-4, 337
Mocked to Texans by:
RotoWorld (Evan Silva) on 3/21
CBS Sports (Will Brinson) on 3/20
MMQB (Connor Orr) on 3/19
USA Today (Doug Farrar) on 3/15
NFL.com (Charles Davis) on 3/15

OL Greg Little, Ole Miss 6-6, 325
Mocked to Texans by:
NFL.com (Lance Zierlein) on 3/21
Houston Chronicle (Aaron Wilson) on 3/20
CBS Sports (Tom Fornelli) on 3/19

CB Greedy Williams, LSU 6-2, 185
Mocked to Texans by:
NFL.com (Bucky Brooks) on 3/19
The Ringer (Danny Kelly) on 3/15

CB Byron Murphy, Washington 5-11, 182
Mocked to Texans by:
Bleacher Report (Matt Miller) on 3/25
DraftTek on 3/25
Houston Chronicle (John McClain) on 3/20

OL Dalton Risner, Kansas State 6-5, 309
Mocked to Texans by:
CBS Sports (Pete Prisco) on 3/26
CBS Sports (Chris Trapasso) on 3/22

OL Garrett Bradbury, NC State 6-2, 300
Mocked to Texans by:
The Draft Network (Trevor Sikkema) on 3/24

OL Jonah Williams Alabama 6-4, 302
Mocked to Texans by:
CBS Sports (Jared Dubin) on 3/14

OL Kaleb McGary, Washington 6-7, 317
Mocked to Texans by:
Roto World (Josh Norris) on 3/20

CB Deandre Baker, Georgia 5-11, 185
Mocked to Texans by:
NFL.com (Peter Schrager) on 3/26

RB Josh Jacobs, Alabama 5-10, 216
Mocked to Texans by:
The Sporting News (Vinnie Iyer) on 3/18
 
BPA only works if the team has outlined their needs according to priority. Just BPA could hypothetically have a team selecting 7 safeties b/c each time their turn rolled around the BPA on the board was a safety. That would sort of suck.
 
OptimisticTexan said:
BPA only works if the team has outlined their needs according to priority. Just BPA could hypothetically have a team selecting 7 safeties b/c each time their turn rolled around the BPA on the board was a safety. That would sort of suck.
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If a team had safety as a position of need then selected a safety in round 1, safety would no longer be BPA.
 
JB said:
If a team had safety as a position of need then selected a safety in round 1, safety would no longer be BPA.
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Therefore as I stated......the team had the positions of need identified and prioritized before initiating the BPA rule.
 
OptimisticTexan said:
Therefore as I stated......the team had the positions of need identified and prioritized before initiating the BPA rule.
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My head hurts... didn't you say that theoretically a team could select 7 safeties by going BPA only?
 
JB said:
My head hurts... didn't you say that theoretically a team could select 7 safeties by going BPA only?
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He did. And that's 100% true. You're suggesting that positional needs don't matter. BPA literally means, best player available. So yes, a safety could be the best available player at every pick in theory.
 
YoungTexanFan said:
He did. And that's 100% true. You're suggesting that positional needs don't matter. BPA literally means, best player available. So yes, a safety could be the best available player at every pick in theory.
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That's the opposite of what I'm saying. Safety might be the BPA in round 1, but once selected it no longer has the same priority attached.
 
JB said:
That's the opposite of what I'm saying. Safety might be the BPA in round 1, but once selected it no longer has the same priority attached.
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So the Texans possess Watson......at pick 23 the BPA is a QB b/c the top OT's, CB's and DL are off the board, is this the athlete the Texans draft if the OT they really need may be rated an early RD2 pick and definitely won't be available at 54.
 
OptimisticTexan said:
So the Texans possess Watson......at pick 23 the BPA is a QB b/c the top OT's, CB's and DL are off the board, is this the athlete the Texans draft if the OT they really need may be rated an early RD2 pick and definitely won't be available at 54.
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Aye, there's the rub !! The "purists" will argue - never stray .... "always apply BPA" principle. It is just not that simple ! In our case, the longer we put off assembling a talented offensive line, the more years of talent we burn from the rest of our team !
 
justmy2cents said:
Aye, there's the rub !! The "purists" will argue - never stray .... "always apply BPA" principle. It is just not that simple ! In our case, the longer we put off assembling a talented offensive line, the more years of talent we burn from the rest of our team !
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Agree.
If you are pretty confident you have the key piece in place, you can build your team around him.
 
JB said:
That's the opposite of what I'm saying. Safety might be the BPA in round 1, but once selected it no longer has the same priority attached.
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This simply isn't true. Using safety as your example, if safety is BPA in round one and that player is selected, and then in round two another safety is also the highest rated player available (BPA), you're advocating taking that second safety purely because he is BPA. The third round could provide the same scenario with yet another safety being BPA with how the round falls, so now you are forced to draft a third safety because BPA over all else, including common sense. This carries on all seven rounds and we only draft safeties because each one was the BPA at that particular pick. That's what BPA means, and how it works.
 
Nobody drafts pure BPA. Everyone has some variation of BPA at a position of need. Even the Aaron Rodgers pick had some need to it. Favre was aging and already mouthing about retirement when Rodgers fell in Green Bay's lap from possible #1 overall.
 
infantrycak said:
Nobody drafts pure BPA. Everyone has some variation of BPA at a position of need. Even the Aaron Rodgers pick had some need to it. Favre was aging and already mouthing about retirement when Rodgers fell in Green Bay's lap from possible #1 overall.
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Exactly .... the straw that breaks the back, (final consideration), is need !
 
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