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2012 Hurricane Season

Tropical Storm Katia continues to track across the open Atlantic...

Models hinting at tropical development off of the Louisiana coast sometime after Friday... area to watch.
 
brakos82 said:
Tropical Storm Katia continues to track across the open Atlantic...

Models hinting at tropical development off of the Louisiana coast sometime after Friday... area to watch.
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at201112_model.gif






Louisiana?
 
at201193_model.gif


So, no telling where it goes (hopefully TX if it isn't too strong)... but something to watch nonetheless. NHC saying unlikely to develop in the next 2 days... but 2 1/2 - 4 days more likely.
 
brakos82 said:
at201193_model.gif


So, no telling where it goes (hopefully TX if it isn't too strong)... but something to watch nonetheless. NHC saying unlikely to develop in the next 2 days... but 2 1/2 - 4 days more likely.
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What the hell is up with that orange line? It's heading our way and all of the sudden...........BAM! Let's go to Mexico. What a rain tease.
 
Wonderful. The tropical depression looks like it is going to turn away from us. I'm not sure what my lawn did to piss off mother nature but it was bad since she doesn't want anything to do with it.
 
sakebomb said:
Wonderful. The tropical depression looks like it is going to turn away from us. I'm not sure what my lawn did to piss off mother nature but it was bad since she doesn't want anything to do with it.
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You can have the rain! This stupid storm is moving at a whopping 2 mph. It could float over us into Tuesday morning. I've had to reschedule two fantasy football drafts because of this thing. :vincepalm:
 
BetaV1 said:
You can have the rain! This stupid storm is moving at a whopping 2 mph. It could float over us into Tuesday morning. I've had to reschedule two fantasy football drafts because of this thing. :vincepalm:
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That sucks, nola does not need that, thats for sure. stay safe.
 
BetaV1 said:
So is Lee giving you guys in Texas a nice breeze? :)
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A nice breeze and no rain. Sigh. I know y'all don't want to hear about how dry we are, but it would have been nice if y'all had shared a little.

The dry air and the breeze make the wildfire danger high.
 
at201113_model.gif


NGFDL and GFDL would bring some much needed rain to the state. Unfortunately, I don't think those are the likely models for the system.
 
Echo.........echo echo echo

You know Brakos, the strange part of this is I've got relatives in Washington/Oregon area. In fact, I was born in Enterprise Oregon. I like mentioning to my Trekkie fans I was born on the Enterprise because it's not really lying, so to speak. LOL
 
Thorn said:
Echo.........echo echo echo

You know Brakos, the strange part of this is I've got relatives in Washington/Oregon area. In fact, I was born in Enterprise Oregon. I like mentioning to my Trekkie fans I was born on the Enterprise because it's not really lying, so to speak. LOL
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That explains everything. LOL
 
Tropical Storm Nate has formed in the southern Gulf of Mexico... expected track for the next couple days will be very erratic, then taking a generally northwestward movement. Current forecast track pushes Nate into northeast Mexico in about 5 days... though deviation into southern Texas is possible.
 
brakos82 said:
Tropical Storm Nate has formed in the southern Gulf of Mexico... expected track for the next couple days will be very erratic, then taking a generally northwestward movement. Current forecast track pushes Nate into northeast Mexico in about 5 days... though deviation into southern Texas is possible.
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I feel like I was just Rickrolled. I have been in the know about the Freaky Friday stuff from the get go, however, I was in this thread earlier and read your post, but left thinking it was Thorn. Then I saw that brakos82 had the latest message in the thread and thought it was an update to Thorn's, but then found old timey war guy.

:wadepalm: TrapStar
 
Kaiser Toro said:
I feel like I was just Rickrolled. I have been in the know about the Freaky Friday stuff from the get go, however, I was in this thread earlier and read your post, but left thinking it was Thorn. Then I saw that brakos82 had the latest message in the thread and thought it was an update to Thorn's, but then found old timey war guy.

:wadepalm: TrapStar
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:lol:

Well you and TS Nate can kiss my ass!
 
Tropical Storm Nate continues to sit in the Bay of Campeche... has nearly become a hurricane. Forecast track is slightly more favorable for a south Texas landfall... though impacts won't be felt for several days. NHC forecasts bring Nate to a cat-2 by Sunday, holding strength through at least Tues with the center still well off-shore.

Tropical Storm Maria is struggling to organize itself... could become a tropical depression or remnant low within the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Katia... though it has a wide rain field, is staying off-shore from the Carolinas... No impacts expected from Katia, other than moderate surf along the eastern seaboard.
 
Something to keep an eye on.

http://blog.chron.com/sciguy/2012/0...g-a-gulf-hurricane-in-about-10-days-well-see/

Those who watch the tropics closely have been pinging me to ask about a possible hurricane striking the coast in about 10 to 12 days time.

That’s because one of the major global forecast models, the GFS, has been advertising this possibility for a couple of days. The latest forecast run, for example, brings a rather large system to the Texas coast on June 23.

I’m generally skeptical about such strong storms this early in the season, and regard models after seven to 10 days to have very little basis in reality. But what about this storm?

For some insight I turned to Chris Hebert, a tropics expert at ImpactWeather. Here are his thoughts:

I’d take that with a grain of salt. For the past week, the GFS, along with the European and Canadian models, has been hinting at possible tropical development in the western Caribbean and/or southern Gulf of Mexico between June 17 and 22.

The long-range GFS has also been predicting the movement of an MJO pulse into the East Pacific by next weekend. The linked map indicates increased lifting resulting in increased thunderstorm activity into the NW Caribbean by next weekend. The Wheeler diagram also indicates a moderate MJO in the longer range:

The bottom line is that all available model guidance has been at least hinting at possible development in the western Caribbean and/or the southern Gulf of Mexico between next Sunday through next Friday. Currently, thunderstorm activity in the region remains minimal. There are no disturbances to focus on.

However, the models actually did predict “something” developing either in the western Caribbean or off the East U.S. Coast about 10-14 days before Beryl developed. They obviously are picking up on something, so I think that the best course of action is to keep an eye on the western Caribbean over the next week to see if there is any increase in thunderstorm activity. If thunderstorms do blossom in the region, then there might be some chance of development.
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Shouldn't we have a new thread for 2012, or change the date in this threads title?

In any case, I've already been squirrling away my hurricane supplys for this year. I've got one week of non-perishable food in the cabinet and 8 cases of water. I still need to check my flashlights and batteries, and the first aid kit. And the portable radio.
 
I hope Debby comes to Austin and sits on our............nevermind. :kitten:

I hope we get Debby in Austin for a week or so, we need the rain.
 
Showtime100 said:
I hope Debby comes to Austin and sits on our............nevermind. :kitten:

I hope we get Debby in Austin for a week or so, we need the rain.
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It's been sitting on us for a few days now. I haven't seen this much rain in years. I will probably have to drain the pool tomorrow.
 
Hookem Horns said:
It's been sitting on us for a few days now. I haven't seen this much rain in years. I will probably have to drain the pool tomorrow.
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I thought about you when Debbie decided to pour her precious rain on Fla!:) Damn, Kevin!! You're a TEXAN friend! Can't you SHARE??! It's HOT here in dear old TEXAS!! :heat:
 
SheTexan said:
I thought about you when Debbie decided to pour her precious rain on Fla!:) Damn, Kevin!! You're a TEXAN friend! Can't you SHARE??! It's HOT here in dear old TEXAS!! :heat:
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I know .. my friends in Austin were talking about 109 degrees weather. Here the storm has passed and it is in the low 80's with a nice cool breeze. If I could send the rain back to Texas I would.
 
Excerpt from Dr. Jeff Masters:

Since the Hurricane Hunters found Ernesto's strongest winds to be near 14°N, I expect that Martinique, Dominica, St. Lucia, and Barbados will see the strongest winds on Friday during Ernesto's passage through the islands. Wind shear is expected to remain moderate, 10 - 20 knots, through Friday, then fall to the low range through Tuesday, according to the 2 pm EDT run of the SHIPS model. Given Ernesto's poor organization, I give a 20% chance that the storm will degenerate into a tropical wave on Friday. If this happens, the storm will still be capable of bringing winds of 50 mph to the Windward Islands, though--and will still be capable of regenerating into a tropical storm in the Western Caribbean. Once Ernesto clears the Lesser Antilles, the reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more westerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Honduras on Monday night, is being discounted by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, it is possible that the storm's outer spiral bands will cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--only the HWRF clearly shows Ernesto reaching hurricane strength over the next five days. So, the official NHC forecast of a hurricane near Jamaica on Monday is an aggressive one. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week. Stay tuned.
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By Sunday evening this could be a cat 1 hurricane that could enter the Gulf. If yall haven't stocked up on food, water, batteries and the like, you probably should do that during your grocery shopping this weekend. Just in case, you know.

at201205.gif
 
Ernesto will hopefully die out over Mexico. There's a new one out in the Atlantic now, but I doubt anyone in Texas needs to be concerned about it.

at201206.gif
 
Add a battery powered fan to your hurricane supplies. I just ordered one from Amazon. It's a ten inch fan that runs on D cells. You'll be glad you did if you actually need it.
 
Thorn said:
Add a battery powered fan to your hurricane supplies. I just ordered one from Amazon. It's a ten inch fan that runs on D cells. You'll be glad you did if you actually need it.
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A fan connected to a couple of solar panels would be great to have as well.
 
Forgot what it was like to worry about hurricanes. My family moved from Houston in 1983 and we never lived in a hurricane zone after that.

Looks like this storm is heading right this way. :(
 
It looks more and more like Isaac will miss Florida, and enter the Gulf on a path towards the eastern part of Louisiana, or Mississippi.
 
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