Well, I'm in favor. Because they are good QBs that can help this franchise win. That's all that matters.
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2023 TEXANS DRAFT DISCUSSION
- Thread starter gwallaia
- Start date
SnakeEyes
Under NRG
That would mean Stroud and Hooker should be the 2 QBs you want. Both have been listed as putting the ball in tight windows and throwing with accuracy
sandman
Brexit Advisor
I get the mindset, but the Cowboys situation was slightly different. Aikman and Walsh were both drafted in the same off-season. Aikman in the 1989 regular draft, Walsh in the 1989 supplemental draft. Both played in the 1990 season as rookies.
Walsh was Jimmy's QB at Miami and he wanted him badly. Add to that, he never was a fan of Aikman with well-documented public criticism of his play before Norv Turner showed up. He had every intention of Walsh being the guy and trading away Aikman, but the Saints really wanted Walsh.
In fact, by taking Walsh in the 1989 supplemental draft, they gave up what would be the 1.1 pick in the 1990 draft. So by trading him to New Orleans for a 1,2 and 3, they really only netted a 2 and 3.
Texian
Hall of Fame
And suppose you hit the lottery and you have the #1 in 2024, do you draft Williams?
Texian
Hall of Fame
Josh Heupel's offense is an Air Raid Run-and-Shoot, pre-snap read, vertical passing game.
Mr teX
Hall of Fame
its in that top tier of physical skills you want your qb to have for sure...but you can make the argument that a qb's ability to process and react to info quickly is the #1 attribute overall. Long and short of it is, When you know what you're looking at & where you want to go with the ball, the rest is just muscle memory & mechanics. We've seen qb's who are not all that accurate (Vick, Schaub) thrive in the NFL...we haven't seen a qb who can't process & react to info quickly do the same tho.
It's not cut & dried what would be the correct decision to make. There's an entire year of plays and data to analyze, across the board. Not to mention how the decision would impact the chemistry of the team. You look at this like it's a fantasy team with trading cards. Things are different in real life.
The snaps are taken? I don't agree with Lance's take at all. Metchie is coming off cancer and ACL. How the h-e-l-l is he going to be 100%? Collins is a starter that has missed around 30% of his snaps the first 2 seasons. And Woods is 31, got 78% of snaps last year. That number isn't going up. Plenty of snaps available at WR. Maybe Noah Brown can handle the load? But I'd prefer to get a decent target rather than seeing a rookie QB having to force the ball to JAGs that can't get open.
Texian
Hall of Fame
Williams threw for over 4500 yards, passed for 42 TDs, ran for 10, and won the Heisman Trophy. That's real life and real numbers. If he repeats those feats, and there is no reason to think he won't, it's kind of a no-brainer. Johnson and Belichick built their dynasties on having more draft picks than most, not less, and having a HOF QB.
sandman
Brexit Advisor
No receiver gets 100% of the snap counts. Just looking at receivers who were at 1,200 yards+ in 2022 and their snap counts over the last three years:
Jefferson - ~90%
Hill - ~80%
Adams - ~85%
Brown - ~80%
Diggs - ~82%
Lamb - ~76%
Waddle - ~80% (two years)
Smith - ~87% (two years)
McLaurin - ~90%
These were high utilization guys.
Nico is ~65% over the last two years in the games he played. Moore filled in for both Cooks and Collins last year and yet was still below 70%. Cooks was ~83% of snaps in the three years he was here. To Lucky's point, Woods won't stay at that level at 31 years old.
Nico playing more games and Metchie being on the field and Woods in a diminished role probably account for Cooks' snaps. Moore will take a diminished role to a hopeful rookie WR. The Texans offense last year had 1,015 plays, barely 2 plays per game more than Carolina with the lowest and 5-7 plays per game below the upper teams in the league. With an improved offense and QB play, there will be plenty of plays.
Jefferson - ~90%
Hill - ~80%
Adams - ~85%
Brown - ~80%
Diggs - ~82%
Lamb - ~76%
Waddle - ~80% (two years)
Smith - ~87% (two years)
McLaurin - ~90%
These were high utilization guys.
Nico is ~65% over the last two years in the games he played. Moore filled in for both Cooks and Collins last year and yet was still below 70%. Cooks was ~83% of snaps in the three years he was here. To Lucky's point, Woods won't stay at that level at 31 years old.
Nico playing more games and Metchie being on the field and Woods in a diminished role probably account for Cooks' snaps. Moore will take a diminished role to a hopeful rookie WR. The Texans offense last year had 1,015 plays, barely 2 plays per game more than Carolina with the lowest and 5-7 plays per game below the upper teams in the league. With an improved offense and QB play, there will be plenty of plays.
CloakNNNdagger
Hall of Fame
Demeco joins the women who have been lying about that since the beginning of time!
sandman
Brexit Advisor
Troy Aikman is one of my all-time favorite players, but he is in the HoF because of Norv Turner's system and three other HoFers on those teams.
And we all know Belichick lucked into Brady. There is no credit given to him there at all.
But yes, both were really good at stockpiling picks.
As a Williams fan, I would love to get him next year. I just can't see spending 1.2 draft capital on Young/Stroud then spending more draft capital next year to move up for Williams. IMO, I don't think you get the 1.2 return on either of them in a trade.
Those are pretty much the same raw numbers that Bryce and CJ have put up the past 2 years, facing better competition. So, still need to think things thru a bit.
Here's one thing you haven't considered or have failed to mention. Trading the 1,2 pick a year later would incur $19+ million of dead money on the 2024 cap. Will you congratulate Nick for that? And you can expect 20% less (minimum) in the 2600 draft points the 2023 1.2 was valued at due to the year lost on the contract. So there are costs in trading a draft choice from the previous season you just can't get back.
Size of the wallet still matters most. And Bryce will put the most into Cal & Hannah's.Demeco joins the women who have been lying about that since the beginning of time!
Demeco joins the women who have been lying about that since the beginning of time!
badboy
Hall of Fame
As Doc said and why I pulled away from loving Njigba-smith is NOT skills but hamstring. If healthy, he would be talked about as possible first off board before Bears traded out. As with Stingley, injury did occur.
Texian
Hall of Fame
You're getting the next Patrick Mahomes and I'll just leave it at that. BTW Stroud and Young numbers were about 75% of Williams and Maye and S and Y have far superior WR and OL.
SnakeEyes
Under NRG
Demeco joins the women who have been lying about that since the beginning of time!
...and he refused to step on a scale at his pro day.
sandman
Brexit Advisor
Dude gets a lot of run from the Rose Bowl game, but to be honest if you look at game logs, he had 35 catches in the first 8 games of the season then blew up with 60 catches in the final 5 games. He has a half season of first round pick performance in his college resume. So not only injured, but a very small sample set of actual dominating performances that was now two seasons ago.
badboy
Hall of Fame
All I want to know is did Young order a salad and then eat all of Caserio's french fries?
CloakNNNdagger
Hall of Fame
My original post detailed all of your points.
badboy
Hall of Fame
yes but TBF, he probably had to get Stroud's trust as JSN line up next to Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson. I was hoping to see him healthy without those two; didn't happen.
OptimisticTexan
2024 / Rebuilding Block 4 After Playoffs / Texans
Initial excitement will…..losing will eliminate that run to the bank.
sandman
Brexit Advisor
I was simply pointing out that the one dominant season that keeps getting mentioned was really only 5 dominant games.
SnakeEyes
Under NRG
Normally talking up a certain player is a move to get teams offers deals. Move to 3 and draft Stroud as an example. And the plan was Stroud all along. But talking about another player someone really wants can make things murky. Then again, our staff has talked up multiple players.
Top QB draft prospect makes alarming pro day decision
Former Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Bryce Young has raised eyebrows because of what he didn't do at his pro day.
www.yardbarker.com
Don't be Debbie Downer, Mr. Optimistic.
Coach Ryans doesn't come off as Draft Sneaky Pete. He's on the keepin' it real tour.
Well, Williams and Maye threw 25% more passes collectively, so that makes sense. Not to mention playing against inferior competition. And both going sub .500 vs ranked teams, Williams 2-3, Maye 2-4. Maye in particular has a long way to go.
CloakNNNdagger
Hall of Fame
For how long is the question.
You're overselling this. Smith-Njigba was on a 1000 yard pace prior to those 5 games and was the Buckeyes leading receiver in yards gained in 3 of the first 8 games in 2021.
CloakNNNdagger
Hall of Fame
Jack Burton
Veteran
Who’s the next Mahomes?
Porky
Hall of Fame
one hamstring injury? Can you point to repeated hamstrings?
Texian
Hall of Fame
You keep forgetting the part where Stroud and Young played with far superior OL and WRs. Stroud's OL will all likely be playing on Sundays and his WRs surely will. Let's just say Williams and Maye would have had even better numbers and W - L records playing behind those OL with those WRs. Let's not forget that Williams and Maye are a year behind Stroud and Young and are already putting up better numbers with less talent. Keeping it down the middle and relative.
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Texansballer74
The Marine
There isn’t another Patrick Mahomas.
Texian
Hall of Fame
Caleb Williams
Texansballer74
The Marine
False!
sandman
Brexit Advisor
Oh, absolutely. Not diminishing that he was tracking at a 60/1,000 pace which is still a good season. Although, he did also have three 2-reception games in those first 8 games, so there was some inconsistency there.
But those last 5 games? He averaged 12/190 per game for 50/960/6 in this stretch. Lowest number of receptions was nine, hit 15 receptions twice. That was just an insane stretch capped off by a MASSIVE Rose Bowl performance. And in this age of what have you done for me lately, people want to benchmark the Rose Bowl performance.
He's probably somewhere between the solid first half of the year and otherworldly second half. And when you only have one year of performance to assess a player against, and it is a year with such significant splits, it makes you wonder who you are going to get.
Throw in a lingering hamstring injury where he doesn't play the next year, and the uncertainty grows even more. Every player has risks. Some more than others.
TexansBull
Hall of Fame
In the next few years we will see if Bryce Young can handle the physicality of the NFL, if CJ Stroud and his agent hold a team hostage, if Williams becomes the Mahomes and if both Williams and Maye are better than Stroud and Young.
Interesting times.
My thoughts 1 month before the draft:
- I am ok with either CJ Stroud or Bryce Young at #2.
- I do NOT want the Texans going after Lamar Jackson or any other veteran QB now that they have Keenum.
- I am worried that the Texans may let me down with pick #12, because if JSN is there at 12 I want the Texans to snatch him up. If JSN is not available at 12 but Van Ness is, I want the Texans to get him. If neither is available then either get Quentin Johnston if available OR the best DL available.
- I am ok with either CJ Stroud or Bryce Young at #2.
- I do NOT want the Texans going after Lamar Jackson or any other veteran QB now that they have Keenum.
- I am worried that the Texans may let me down with pick #12, because if JSN is there at 12 I want the Texans to snatch him up. If JSN is not available at 12 but Van Ness is, I want the Texans to get him. If neither is available then either get Quentin Johnston if available OR the best DL available.
CloakNNNdagger
Hall of Fame
There's no need to point to repeated hamstrings. Every time he attempted comebacks from his Grade II hamstring rehab, he suffered repeated setbacks/re-injury to his hamstring. Hamstring injuries are notorious for re-injury beyond the season that they occurred. But the fact that he sustained an injury that he could not effectively rehab over such a long period of time (going well into the beginning of this year) is an even greater red flag for future hamstring injury. He did well at the Combine, but those of us who treat hamstrings know that a single day or two of limited even intense activity by no means gives us any comfort in expecting an avoidance of recurrence in the longer term.
There's good evidence that at least one-third of injured professional or amateur athletes older than 18 will reinjure themselves within the same season. The rate is much higher (60 to 70 per cent) for recurrence in future seasons. With this being the case, it seems that current treatment for these injuries may not be very long-term effective. It's also interesting to note that in most cases of Grade II hamstring injuries, the are permanent changes recorded on MRI reflecting the damage.
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Jack Burton
Veteran
OK, I can get on board with that.
Porky
Hall of Fame
thanks Doc. I guess i am jaded with WR’s. Will Fuller was as healthy as one can be in college woth no history of hamstrings and he was nothing but one big hamstring pull in the pros. So a clean college history doesn't seem to reflect injury chances in the pros. It does worry me, but enough to pass on him? Iffy. I cannot decide. But appreciate the input!
Boris
All Pro
starting to imagine how a dr employed on an nfl team can get Serpico'd by the coaching/scouting side of the org
i can see the pendulum swinging the other way though
50yrs from now...the docs have ultimate say?
Gattaca style!
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Texansphan
Football connoisseur
Who is?
badboy
Hall of Fame
Injured in first game missed next game; tried to come back couldn't and then missed 3 games IIRC. Same injured hamstring but some question as to if he made it worse. As with Stingley’s injury, hammys often lead to other injuries often to other side.
Edit as CloakNNNdagger explained much better than I. My focus and concern is as with Stingley a dire need position with similar if not better player available, Texans chose injured player. I don't want that to happen with JSN.
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CloakNNNdagger
Hall of Fame
Reminds me of someone else's moves.
