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[Pick 67] Davis Mills QB Stanford

thunderkyss said:
The Seahawks defense is considerably worse than Jacksonville’s. Mills should have been better against them.

I would think you could regurgitate the same plays from different formations against substitute players more successfully than against a more coherent team like the Jags.
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He should have been better against Seattle? He was better against against them. 33-49 (67.3%), 331 yards, a 93.2 passer rating. After going 14-14 for 150 yards, 10.7 Y/A and a 140.3 passer rating, to start the game, he went 19-35 (54.3%) for 181 yards, 5.2 Y/A and a 68.8 passer rating the rest of the game.

Against the Jags, he started 13-15 (86.6%) for 104 yards, 6.9 Y/A, 117.7 passer rating. Afterwards he goes 6-15 (40%) for 105 yards, 7.0 Y/A, and a 59 passer rating. Total, 19-30 (63.3%), 6.9 Y/A, and a 92.2 passer rating.
 
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Speedy said:
He should have been better against Seattle? He was better against against them. 33-49 (67.3%), 331 yards, a 93.2 passer rating. After going 14-14 for 150 yards, 10.7 Y/A and a 140.3 passer rating, to start the game, he went 19-35 (54.3%) for 181 yards, 5.2 Y/A and a 68.8 passer rating the rest of the game.

Against the Jags, he started 13-15 (86.6%) for 104 yards, 6.9 Y/A, 117.7 passer rating. Afterwards he goes 6-15 (40%) for 105 yards, 7.0 Y/A, and a 59 passer rating. Total, 19-30 (63.3%), 6.9 Y/A, and a 92.2 passer rating.
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Makes sense to me.
 
This week vs. LA will be a big game for Mills. The Chargers are a playoff team with an above average pass defense and a premier pass rusher in Joey Bosa. In fact, there's nothing but potential postseason teams left on the schedule. We'll see if Mills improvement is real or a result of playing against poor competition.
 
Lucky said:
This week vs. LA will be a big game for Mills. The Chargers are a playoff team with an above average pass defense and a premier pass rusher in Joey Bosa. In fact, there's nothing but potential postseason teams left on the schedule. We'll see if Mills improvement is real or a result of playing against poor competition.
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The talent isn't around Mills to play well against the Chargers. The Chargers DL is going to dominate the Texans OL..
 
SnakeEyes said:
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/amp...ccaneers-cardinals/1soxbzinymx7615x4n7446dwde




29. Houston Texans 3-11 (30)

The Texans are short on talent and their defense has plenty of issues. But they might have a potential replacement for Deshaun Watson in promising rookie Davis Mills. He's showing off a strong arm and better decision making, providing a nice finishing spark to a trying season.
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:toropalm:

Not at you SnakeEyes, at the article.

Mills looks like he might be a nice Tyrod Taylor type backup in this league. Can make some spot starts if needed, might even could have a Tyrod in Buffalo type run with a better team around him, but a Watson replacement? Come on, man.

What improvements have there been throughout his 8 starts? He still can't throw a deep ball, or intermediate ball for that matter. He's had a QB Rating (not passer rating) above 30 just 2 times, which means he's having very little impact on games. His QBR was in the 20's the last 2 games in fact. I just don't see the growth and improvement in his game over the course of the season so far.

And I don't give a rat's ass how he compares to Lawrence or Wilson or anybody else. It's not like there's never been 1st round busts before, including #1 overall.
 
Lucky said:
This week vs. LA will be a big game for Mills. The Chargers are a playoff team with an above average pass defense and a premier pass rusher in Joey Bosa. In fact, there's nothing but potential postseason teams left on the schedule. We'll see if Mills improvement is real or a result of playing against poor competition.
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Baby steps. I wanna see him have some success against the bad teams first, before I start to expect him to be productive against the good teams.
 
Speedy said:
:toropalm:

Not at you SnakeEyes, at the article.

Mills looks like he might be a nice Tyrod Taylor type backup in this league. Can make some spot starts if needed, might even could have a Tyrod in Buffalo type run with a better team around him, but a Watson replacement? Come on, man.

What improvements have there been throughout his 8 starts? He still can't throw a deep ball, or intermediate ball for that matter. He's had a QB Rating (not passer rating) above 30 just 2 times, which means he's having very little impact on games. His QBR was in the 20's the last 2 games in fact. I just don't see the growth and improvement in his game over the course of the season so far.

And I don't give a rat's ass how he compares to Lawrence or Wilson or anybody else. It's not like there's never been 1st round busts before, including #1 overall.
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QBR places a strong emphasis on qb mobility and penalizes pocket passers. Mills is a pocket passer. Passer rating, and rating systems like Profootballnetwork, more accurately reflect the value of Mills.
 
Speedy said:
:toropalm:

Not at you SnakeEyes, at the article.

Mills looks like he might be a nice Tyrod Taylor type backup in this league. Can make some spot starts if needed, might even could have a Tyrod in Buffalo type run with a better team around him, but a Watson replacement? Come on, man.

What improvements have there been throughout his 8 starts? He still can't throw a deep ball, or intermediate ball for that matter. He's had a QB Rating (not passer rating) above 30 just 2 times, which means he's having very little impact on games. His QBR was in the 20's the last 2 games in fact. I just don't see the growth and improvement in his game over the course of the season so far.

And I don't give a rat's ass how he compares to Lawrence or Wilson or anybody else. It's not like there's never been 1st round busts before, including #1 overall.
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I'm wanting to see if he can do these things with a better OL and more weapons around him.

You must not have seen the throw that beat the blitz to Dorsett? I would say that's a sign of progress. Also the throw to Akins was a good throw down the field. But with this OL and those weather conditions it shouldn't be surprising that Kelly used the short passing game with quick reads. We didn't see much of this when BOB was here. In fact many were calling for this type of passing game when BOB was here.

BTW, I also would like to see Mills not only take some deeper shots 3-4 times a game, but let the intermediate throws rip instead of trying to layer them as Tex said. In addition to seeing what Mills could do with a running game that can avg more than 2.1 yds per carry.
 
thunderkyss said:
Beginning of the season he looked overwhelmed. By game six, frustrated. Now he looks poised.

Not very good, but poised.
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Not very good, he completed 14 passes in a row in the Seattle game. What are your expectations knowing he's working with a running game that does well to avg 2.0 yds per carry.

Carroll/Wilson were impressed with the way Mills played.
 
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Mr teX said:
Inquiring minds already know.


Topics to stay away from with certain posters:

76 & slander of Keenum/Kubiak
Steelb and anything having to do with DW4 as a franchise or even good qb
Arky & the value of vaccines
.
.
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LOL

Good QB? Yes
 
He can go either way at this point. Kirk cousins was on noone’s radar either. He toiled away in the background as everyone marveled a RG3. 8 years later Cousins is still balling out tossing 30 TD’s a season and RG3’s corny ass is doing color for 2nd rate college football games.

it doesn’t always follow the same script.
 
Number19 said:
QBR places a strong emphasis on qb mobility and penalizes pocket passers. Mills is a pocket passer. Passer rating, and rating systems like Profootballnetwork, more accurately reflect the value of Mills.
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Passer rating more accurately reflects his value?? You're kidding right? The only thing passer rating takes into account are completion percentage, yards, TD and INT. That's it. Mills 43 yard TD to Cooks will give him a big boost in his passer rating, but what did he really do on that play? He threw a pass to a receiver behind the LOS, and that receiver did everything else. 9 times out of 10, at least for the Texans, that's no more than a 2 yard gain. Passer rating gets a bump making a 7 yard completion, but what good is that 7 yard completion on 3rd and 12? It has no impact, unless it gets you into FG range or something like that. That's what these other metrics focus on. Going 13 for 15 and never throwing the ball more than 10 yards downfield, who can't do that?

thunderkyss said:
He's also a rookie with little college experience. He’s going to have some warts.
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And that's fine. But to be saying he's Watson's replacement is ridiculous.

He is a 3rd round rookie. He does have little experience. And he's having his growing pains, as expected. But for anyone to think the Texans have found Watson's replacement, that's just Skip Bayless type BS.
 
Speedy said:
Passer rating more accurately reflects his value?? You're kidding right? The only thing passer rating takes into account are completion percentage, yards, TD and INT. That's it. Mills 43 yard TD to Cooks will give him a big boost in his passer rating, but what did he really do on that play? He threw a pass to a receiver behind the LOS, and that receiver did everything else. 9 times out of 10, at least for the Texans, that's no more than a 2 yard gain. Passer rating gets a bump making a 7 yard completion, but what good is that 7 yard completion on 3rd and 12? It has no impact, unless it gets you into FG range or something like that. That's what these other metrics focus on. Going 13 for 15 and never throwing the ball more than 10 yards downfield, who can't do that?


And that's fine. But to be saying he's Watson's replacement is ridiculous.

He is a 3rd round rookie. He does have little experience. And he's having his growing pains, as expected. But for anyone to think the Texans have found Watson's replacement, that's just Skip Bayless type BS.
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And he's the 2nd best rookie QB in this class, playing behind an OL that avg 2.0 per carry in the run game.
 
Speedy said:
Passer rating more accurately reflects his value?? You're kidding right? The only thing passer rating takes into account are completion percentage, yards, TD and INT. That's it. Mills 43 yard TD to Cooks will give him a big boost in his passer rating, but what did he really do on that play? He threw a pass to a receiver behind the LOS, and that receiver did everything else. 9 times out of 10, at least for the Texans, that's no more than a 2 yard gain. Passer rating gets a bump making a 7 yard completion, but what good is that 7 yard completion on 3rd and 12? It has no impact, unless it gets you into FG range or something like that. That's what these other metrics focus on. Going 13 for 15 and never throwing the ball more than 10 yards downfield, who can't do that?


And that's fine. But to be saying he's Watson's replacement is ridiculous.

He is a 3rd round rookie. He does have little experience. And he's having his growing pains, as expected. But for anyone to think the Texans have found Watson's replacement, that's just Skip Bayless type BS.
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Passer rating informs us of a qb's ability to throw the football effectively. The other qualifiers depend on other factors such as OL play, ability to run the game, the ability of receivers to gain separation deep, and such. Basically depends on other aspects of the offense to contribute to the sucess of the team.

Mills may or may not be Watson's replacement. But to say the thought of this being possible is ridiculous is equally ridiculous.
 
steelbtexan said:
You must not have seen the throw that beat the blitz to Dorsett? I would say that's a sign of progress. Also the throw to Akins was a good throw down the field. But with this OL and those weather conditions it shouldn't be surprising that Kelly used the short passing game with quick reads. We didn't see much of this when BOB was here. In fact many were calling for this type of passing game when BOB was here.
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After griping for 7 years about the lack of blitz beaters and slants in O'Brien's offense, I read points like this and get triggered like an abuse victim. Watching an effective short passing game against a blitzing Jaguars defense was relieving, almost therapeutic. It was excellent work by Mills and is what he needs to build off of.
 
Number19 said:
Passer rating informs us of a qb's ability to throw the football effectively. The other qualifiers depend on other factors such as OL play, ability to run the game, the ability of receivers to gain separation deep, and such. Basically depends on other aspects of the offense to contribute to the sucess of the team.

Mills may or may not be Watson's replacement. But to say the thought of this being possible is ridiculous is equally ridiculous.
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Like I said, going 13-15 and never throwing the ball more than 10 yards and getting a 43 yard TD on a screen pass, gives you a great passer rating, but it doesn’t tell you jack about ability.
 
Speedy said:
He is a 3rd round rookie. He does have little experience. And he's having his growing pains, as expected. But for anyone to think the Texans have found Watson's replacement, that's just Skip Bayless type BS.
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I feel the same way about Mac Jones.
 
Number19 said:
Of course, I didn't say otherwise. The comments were directed at the rating systems.
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I’m on your side. Adding to your post. It’s ridiculous the standard some want to hold this guy to.


steelbtexan said:
Not very good, he completed 14 passes in a row in the Seattle game. What are your expectations knowing he's working with a running game that does well to avg 2.0 yds per carry.
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He’s not very good. Rates twenty something out of 32 starting QBs. I expect him to get better. It’s not an insult to say a dead man is dead.
 
steelbtexan said:
I'm wanting to see if he can do these things with a better OL and more weapons around him.

You must not have seen the throw that beat the blitz to Dorsett? I would say that's a sign of progress. Also the throw to Akins was a good throw down the field. But with this OL and those weather conditions it shouldn't be surprising that Kelly used the short passing game with quick reads. We didn't see much of this when BOB was here. In fact many were calling for this type of passing game when BOB was here.

BTW, I also would like to see Mills not only take some deeper shots 3-4 times a game, but let the intermediate throws rip instead of trying to layer them as Tex said. In addition to seeing what Mills could do with a running game that can avg more than 2.1 yds per carry.
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Your first sentence is 100% what I want to see and know also
 
JB said:
It does tell you it's not Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson or Justin Fields
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True to an extent, but throwing a ton of passes less than 10 yards that helps you to have a high competition percentage is still not telling you a lot. Not where I can look it up at the moment, but I’ll go out on a limb and say their QBRs are down there with Mills, meaning they aren’t having much impact, just like Mills isn’t. And I’ve also said it’s not like 1st rounders don’t bust.

thunderkyss said:
I’m on your side. Adding to your post. It’s ridiculous the standard some want to hold this guy to.
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Not holding anyone to any standards. But even if I were it’s still better than the excuses being made for him. He’s inexperienced. He’s a 3rd round rookie, blah, blah, blah. If he were putting up numbers say a 3rd rounder like Russell Wilson put up as a rookie, then we could talk. Hell, he’s not putting up numbers 4th rounder Dak Prescott did his rookie season.

If that’s holding him to standards then so be it. But those are the standards I want my QB to aspire to. Not that he’s less crappy than the crap of Lawrence, Wilson, or Fields.
 
Texansballer74 said:
All of those systems has it's flaws but it can still give you a little insight.

It's the people who uses them for their specific agendas. We've all have misused those type of systems. That's including myself and even you brother.
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I dont use the ratings systems.

They're a piece of the puzzle but dont give us a true picture.
 
thunderkyss said:
I’m on your side. Adding to your post. It’s ridiculous the standard some want to hold this guy to.



He’s not very good. Rates twenty something out of 32 starting QBs. I expect him to get better. It’s not an insult to say a dead man is dead.
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You should be comparing him to the other rookie QB's.

And like I said rating systems lie. For instance do they take into account the putrid running game Mills is working with?
 
Speedy said:
True to an extent, but throwing a ton of passes less than 10 yards that helps you to have a high competition percentage is still not telling you a lot. Not where I can look it up at the moment, but I’ll go out on a limb and say their QBRs are down there with Mills, meaning they aren’t having much impact, just like Mills isn’t. And I’ve also said it’s not like 1st rounders don’t bust.



Not holding anyone to any standards. But even if I were it’s still better than the excuses being made for him. He’s inexperienced. He’s a 3rd round rookie, blah, blah, blah. If he were putting up numbers say a 3rd rounder like Russell Wilson put up as a rookie, then we could talk. Hell, he’s not putting up numbers 4th rounder Dak Prescott did his rookie season.

If that’s holding him to standards then so be it. But those are the standards I want my QB to aspire to. Not that he’s less crappy than the crap of Lawrence, Wilson, or Fields.
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Is he playing behind those Dallas/Seattle OL's?

I dont see a Marshawn Lynch in the backfield either.

Where's Dez Bryant or Tyron Smith/Zack Martin on this team? Zeke?

Get Mills some talent then we can begin to judge.
 
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Speedy said:
Like I said, going 13-15 and never throwing the ball more than 10 yards and getting a 43 yard TD on a screen pass, gives you a great passer rating, but it doesn’t tell you jack about ability.
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You have to ask yourself, why is he throwing these short passes? And why don't you consider moving the chains an "ability"? What it comes down to is just a preference for a different style of qb.
 
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Number19 said:
You have to ask yourself, why is he throwing these short passes? And why don't you consider moving the chains an "ability"? What it comes down to is just a preference for a different style of qb.
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Is he moving the chains? Texans are dead last in 1st downs.
 
Number19 said:
You have to ask yourself, why is he throwing these short passes? And why don't you consider moving the chains an "ability"? What it comes down to is just a preference for a different style of qb.
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I will say it's because the coaching staff knows what they're working with. Meaning they know he's not ready for the big time stuff. They also know the offensive line is not up to par and the running game is very terrible.
 
Brisco_County said:
After griping for 7 years about the lack of blitz beaters and slants in O'Brien's offense, I read points like this and get triggered like an abuse victim. Watching an effective short passing game against a blitzing Jaguars defense was relieving, almost therapeutic. It was excellent work by Mills and is what he needs to build off of.
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Got that right Brisco, that's what I'm talkin about !
 
Speedy said:
What about when he went 6-15 after that?
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Well, you didn't mention that in your comment. But since you moved the goal post, obviously the offense wasn't moving the ball. I'd have to go back to game film to see why. But if facing 3rd and long and a blitz, with downfield receivers blanketed, it's understandable. What I do know, he wasn't throwing INT's. He threw only one last game and only 2 the past 5 games.
 
Speedy said:
What about when he went 6-15 after that?
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Then the rains came.

My question is, Mills seems to start off hot in most games, then his performance falls off pretty badly in the 2nd half. Is this because Kelly can game plan the beginning of the games but cant make 2nd half adjustments? Or is this on Mills?

The reason I ask this is remember the slow starts the offense used to have under BOB with Kelly running the offense?
 
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Speedy said:
And for the record, that 13-15 was in 5 possessions where they had 8 1st downs, 5 on the 1st possession. So no, he’s not moving the chains.
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The offense put up 13 pts in the 1st half.

That's a good 1st half. (Not great) But you have to take into account they were playing in a driving rain.
 
Number19 said:
Well, you didn't mention that in your comment. But since you moved the goal post, obviously the offense wasn't moving the ball. I'd have to go back to game film to see why. But if facing 3rd and long and a blitz, with downfield receivers blanketed, it's understandable. What I do know, he wasn't throwing INT's. He threw only one last game and only 2 the past 5 games.
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So if I talk about a portion of a game, that’s fine, but the whole 60 minutes is moving the goal posts? Gotcha.
 
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