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Texans @ Chiefs - 2nd Round (And Round 2)
- Thread starter txtx
- Start date
banned1976
sleeper mode
I know on the surface it seems crazy to want to face Baltimore early in the playoffs, but Mahomes is a better passer than Jackson. I trust our linebackers against Baltimore’s rushing attack more than I do our secondary versus KC’s passing.
texanhead08
All Pro
I don't have a good feeling about this one the only way the Texans can pull this off is if they can pull a page from the old beat Peyton Manning formula. We need to milk the clock and score touchdowns and limit as much as possible how much time our defense is on the field. If we tackle like we did against the Bills we might give up 45 on Sunday.
We're not playing against a limping Mahomes either, add another 10 points to that.
Texansballer74
The Marine
Texansballer74
The Marine
badboy
Hall of Fame
Just using this season--never happened X 17 games divided by 17 games to get "law of averages" = not happening. lol...just my math
It’s all about match-ups. Chiefs vs Texans are really mirror images just with different coaching philosophy. Hence smart money on Andy Reid. Unless O’Brian can finally channel his inner Belichick
Reid has choked many times in the playoffs.
Hopefully Sunday is another one of those times.
badboy
Hall of Fame
I think we win vs Chiefs and go to Baltimore with even more confidence and a better team each week. Jackson is more scrambling like Watson and worries me. I think Tenn beats up Ravens regardless of outcome. I will not be stunned if Titans beat Ravens with incentive to play us again.
If we were rolling over everyone & the #2 seed, I'd hate to see what it would be like over here.
Surprisingly, the majority of his false starts are at home. On the road, besides the Colts game where he had two, he averages about 1 per road game. Due to the crowd noise, they will be using a silent count. I say he will have at least 1, but wouldn't be surprise if it's none.
https://www.nflpenalties.com/player/l-tunsil-houston-texans?year=2019
Seegara
Guitar Picker, Dog Lover, Woodworker
I like your confidence but aren't you forgetting the coaching advantage that carries the day in playoff games?
DanielTx
Chosen one
Chiefs are the biggest favorites at home this weekend. Even better, the boys are motivated. We just defeated the #2 defense in the league so the chiefs defense will be much easier which should lead to greater success. The stage is beneath deshauns talent but he’s going to elevate it. He truly makes the game beautiful. I’m starting to believe he loves to make comebacks more rather than blowing out the opponent early in the game. The stage is set. The chiefs will be poetry. After all, he’s a magician. Let’s start the show. Its a lot of fear on kc board. Which is understandable because Deshauns an obsessed winner. The chiefs db’s will be his puppets. When dw shoots, they will dance. You think the chiefs are going to stop his performance? You lack imagination. Mahomes season will be forgotten. Deshauns ahead of his time. He still feels he has something to prove. I will comeback Sunday to quote this after defeating kc. Knowing he has to only defeat Lamar and Mahomes makes him feel confident. The chiefs defense are probably the worst in the playoffs behind us. This next one will be easy, if not. More fun.
Texans 38 Chiefs 28
Texans 38 Chiefs 28
TheMatrix31
Hall of Fame
Or Jamaal Charles low chipshot on Cushing taking him out for the year, or many instances of of Kelce's bitchmadeity over the years too.
I have a long memory.
EllisUnit
Vote RED!!!
Haha not that damn redneck...
austins23
Hall of Fame
Reid has been known to make some bonehead decisions in the playoffs. IMO he screwed the pooch with his play calling when we played them in Week 6.
This is how the Texans beat them last time. Texans had the ball for just under 40 minutes and 190+ rushing yards. Hopefully that will be repeated.
see above reply to beerlover.
While I do agree the Chiefs have the better coach, Reid has been known to blunder on occasion.
PapaL
Loose Screw
I was also going with 2 until I read Earl's post. Over/Under would be 1 then right? I'll go under then. No false starts this week.
Damn this kool-aid is great lol
Mr teX
Hall of Fame
Very true...but as explosive as they are, they aren't anywhere close to how explosive they were last year & that's not all b/c of injuries. What defenses have been doing as of late is making Mahomes & Reid be patient and take the underneath stuff & put together long time consuming drives & that has taken a little punch out of their explosiveness. Reading some of the nonsense over on their MB, some seem to think that its b/c Reid has been calling vanilla plays in preparation for the playoffs, which is a joke considering that they were still playing to get the #2 seed up until the last week of the season. Mahomes is a gunslinger by nature & sooner or later he will always try to make a throw that he probably shouldn't try. 3 of his 5 ints came in the last 4 games of the season. They also don't really run it all that well..But Reid likes to supplement the screen game in its place to get his RB's involved in the offense.
Mahomes will get his though & as a defense, you just can't overreact to the 1-3 wow throws he makes a game..you gotta stay disciplined in your approach & just hope that you've slowed him & the offense down enough or that you've wrecked Reid's gameplan/playcalling enough to give yourself a chance to win it late. BOTH Charger games they had chances late & Rivers...BOTH times ruined it for them.
If......& its a HUGE if, the Texans can follow this blueprint & manage to show up on offense, we most definitely have a shot to take these dudes down again.
TexansBull
Hall of Fame
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Great post
This is the way for the Texans to beat the Chiefs.
I would definitely take 3 ints in 4 games from DW4.
TexansBull
Hall of Fame
The chatter is the Chiefs defense has improved over the last six games. Here are the teams they played. They didn’t exactly play the toughest opponents.
Mr teX
Hall of Fame
I believe they have improved just not as much as they or their fans think. I see 1 WR group worth a damn in those 6 games; about the same amount of QBs worth a damn as well. Now they've been somewhat opportunistic (10 ints), but again that's heavily skewed by Rivers' 6 ints in the 2 games of the 6 game stretch. But the best qb they played was an over the hill TB12. If DW4 himself can stay away from turning the ball over, its going to be a much closer game than everyone thinks.
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maverick512000
Hall of Fame
Considering that we just won the wild card game and many people are still talking like we suck I'm pretty sure we wouldn't be near as cocky as they are being. Hell as much as cowboys fans annoy me you can't fault their loyalty. They just missed the playoffs in the worst division in, possibly, history and they are still talking like they are going to hoist a SB trophy THIS year.
Brother in law: You realize that the cowboys are better than the Texans right?
Me: Really, record say different and they played in a horrible division.
Him: Yeah but that's because Garret sucked, Dak, Zeke, Cooper and all those guys are way better than Watson, Hop and anyone on the Texans.
Me: So you are saying that the Texans are only as far as they are because of Bill O'Brien? Let me send you a link to a forum I spend time talking football on and please go tell them that.
Haven't yet seen him here.
austins23
Hall of Fame
So your brother in law is one of those planet delusional Cowboys fans? He's right in that Garrett isn't/wasn't very good. But for him to say Dak is better than Watson and Cooper is better than Hopkins.....yep, planet delusional. Typical Cowboys fan.
If, IF the good OB game plan show up Sunday afternoon, the Chiefs are in for a battle and may not like the outcome. If this teamplays the first half like it did this last game, we aren't gonna like the outcome.
OB has to get the RB's and TE's singled up on the LBer crew. I think Duke can make some big plays against them. And hopefully the run game shows up, Texans get that going consistently, some play action to Duke.....
I think this game will be much closer than what many talking heads (even Vegas -8.5/9) are saying.
boilertiger
Practice Squad
Chiefs fan here. He offense hasnt been as explosive this year and to some extent that goes back to when Hunt was let go last year. A couple of thoughts on the offense for you.
- Chiefs offense has changed dramatically over the course of the season. In games 1-4 they were carpet bombing teams and then Mahomes got injured. The Mahomes got injured again. Then he had the Dislocation injury. At that point Reid really started dialing back the long developing plays and opted for much more stuff underneath.
- Screen game has not been a significant part of the offense this year. Reid loves screen plays but the oline wasnt executing them without committing tons of penalties so we havent seen much of it recently.
- The oline hasnt really been good at all this year. Lots of moving peices because of injuries. Its definitely the weakest part of the offense. Its better now than it has been all year. Its healthy. If it gels and it plays better then you will see more of the massive long developing plays.
- Beating this Chiefs offense has been about two things 1) punishing Kelce and Hill at the line of scrimmage so they cant build up a head of steam and 2) in conjunction putting pressure on Mahomes.
As for Reid holding stuff back. I think thats real. We havent seen much from Tyreek Hill in the run game. We havent seen Hardman and Hill on the field at the same time very much but that is coming (either this year or next year) and that will create a bunch of unique challenges. We’ll see what happens.
The texans concern me. The Chiefs defense is better but its very clear to me that when the Texans offense is clicking it is elite. In game one the Texans really got rolling with the RPO and it just killed the Chiefs. I will be interested to see if thats what Obrien starts off with in the game on Sunday. Spags should be prepared for that specific approach so the game will get tough when the Texans adjust and dial up new stuff.
cameronkrazie86
Rookie
As long as O'Brien "plays to win" instead of "play to not lose", I'll be okay with the outcome. I want to see him aggressive and let Deshaun try to carry the team on his back. I think he can handle it and I'd love to see him have an opportunity in a big game to play his style of game from start to finish.
Mr teX
Hall of Fame
Good stuff & I mostly agree, you guys may just be peaking at the right time.........but i'm not buying the Reid scaling back thing.....mainly b/c his history over the course of his career suggests he doesn't really know how to do that; Dude tends to get lost in his own playcalling for the passing game at times. The other reason is b/c you guys don't really run it well even though that's probably what he should try to do more against us considering we're not very good at stopping it....but i don't think he will...He's too greedy and having a qb like Mahomes and all that speed out on the perimeter, he'll be eager to try to blow the top off our secondary with the passing game early.
But we are too schizophrenic & the only thing consistent about our offense is that we're inconsistent & that we will not abandon the run..which means that the RPO will likely be used a ton like it was last time. But with Fuller back (reports are that he will be) things should be a little easier for us on offense. & For all the talk of who you guys didn't have last time we played, we didn't have our #3 guy in Kenny Stills either. That doesn't sound like a big deal, but he is definitely a mismatch in our favor against whomever your nickel guy is...unless Spags uses honey badger to cover him...in which case that leaves 1 of Nuk or Fuller 1 on 1..which are also match ups in our favor. As far as the defense, they are what they are..mostly terrible, but have shown a tendency to play pretty sizeable stretches of the game fairly well.
Hopefully it will be a good game, but we'll see. BoB is 2-3 all time against Reid so I understand why the Vegas odds are what they are & why every talking head is picking the chiefs.....but if its tight late in the game....I could see Reid screwing you guys in some form or fashion.
Speedy
Former Yeller Dweller
What’s this pressure at the LOS you speak of and can it be done giving 10 yard cushions?
Mangler
Toro de España
Na. Watson has beaten Mahomes before, and hell do it again come Sunday!
CloakNNNdagger
Hall of Fame
The Chiefs finished with the fourth-ranked scoring offense at 28.4 points per game. Our offense will need to be uncharacteristically productive........and our defense will need to make the Chiefs uncharacteristically unproductive.
boilertiger
Practice Squad
Reid has a long history of crapping the bed specifically with clock management. Mahomes was getting crushed on all the long developing plays early on and i think his injuries essentially forced Reid to start calling plays that wouldnt result in Mahomes being lost for the year. If Reid still lacks confidence in the oline then he will probably have to continue to be conservative. He wont really have a choice. I dont think he really wants a shootout this week but that could just be the way the game develops if the RPO is clicking again four Houston.
I can see how not having Stills could be a big deal. In a game like this in this league EVERYTHING matters. It all matters. Chiefs are without Juan Thornhill who was a big factor late in the season with our defensive transormation because he allowed Spags to play him single high and let Honeybadger roam around the field and get up as the slot corner. Our DB alignment is going to change quite a bit this week.
As far as what is driving the Vegas line. Reid is a ridiculous 21-5 coming off of bye weeks in his career which includes a 3-1 record in the division round and one loss to the Patriots in the Superbowl. The bye week factor is the biggest advantage the Chiefs have IMO. Reid has proven time and time again that he can out gameplan most coaches with the extra week to prepare. DVOA seems to like the Chiefs in this game as well but i dont care much about that.
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boilertiger
Practice Squad
Haha, absolutely not. If you let Hill get off the line clean then it doesnt matter if you put three guys on him he will blow by the all.
txtx
Waterboy
Not really, just thought I'd create the space and see what drops in.
txtx
Waterboy
Yeah, I'm hopeful, but there's no reason to be all freaky-dreamy like Brian T. Smith who wrote "Watson was the better QB" in October's game. October was long ago, and I'd say 3 TDs/1 INT and a 96 passer rating beats 1 TD / 2 INTs and a 77 rating.
After watching Watson have to dodge blitzes by the Bills secondary, he'd really better watch out for Mathieu blitzing. To win, I think we need the TEs and Duke to come up big to slow the rush and the defense to create turnovers to stop Chiefs drives. Maybe if we shock them with a quick score at the start--for once (not counting McCarron's 1st drive).
I trust DW, I do not trust OB, THAT is the problem.
As I said in another post... Im more worried about OB factoring into the game than I am Mahomes.
That is not to downplay Mahomes abilities, I simply fear OBs liability factor more.
Watson can only fly so high with an anchor around his neck like OB.
How did the Chiefs lose to the Patriots in the super bowl?
Welcome and I think Fisher being back is going to make a big difference between the 1st time and when they play this time.
Good point about Thornhill. How has Jones looked since he got back from injury? Has the addition of Suggs made the pass rush/Clark better?
Reid coached the Eagles against the Pats in the SB. The SB that McNabb threw up on TO's shoes during his ill fated attempt to lead the Eagles to a SB victory on the final 2:00 drive.
I'd take that 9.5 …. I really think this is a close game , last team to score wins.
& throw in the fact he's game planning against Bill O'Brien (chess vs checkers) I'm shocked the line isn't more.
Uncle Rico
Ur apology should be as loud as Ur disrespect was
Bad weather game. Hard to forecast how this team will respond. One thing is certain OBrien is in full self preservation mode and Im expecting a "creative playcall" (hee hee)
Nobody gave us a shot against Buffalo, even less of a chance against KC.
Will Fuller is back, cold, possibly snowy conditions dont bode well for much of a passing game especially deep stuff. Ive been watching film of their defense over the last month and while they havent played any so-called "elite" type offenses the game that stands out to me was their matchup with Denver.
Broncos came to our house after the Patriots game and opened up a 6 pack of whip ass on us. These Chiefs easily put those boys to bed. That same offense that came in here and put up 38, was held to 3 points by KC. Chiefs had the 3rd hardest SOS this year and handled it well.
Only way I see us making a game of it is we can connect with some deep passes, but judging by the weather its going to be an intermediate affair - the kind where Kelce can pick you apart. OBrien will need to spend an extra amount of time figuring out how to incorporate the TEs and RBs WITH INTENT. Like Deshaun joked above in the clip, It would be foolish not to use his wheels in a game like this.
Defensively? This is the best I got:
Chiefs 24
Hou 22
Nobody gave us a shot against Buffalo, even less of a chance against KC.
Will Fuller is back, cold, possibly snowy conditions dont bode well for much of a passing game especially deep stuff. Ive been watching film of their defense over the last month and while they havent played any so-called "elite" type offenses the game that stands out to me was their matchup with Denver.
Broncos came to our house after the Patriots game and opened up a 6 pack of whip ass on us. These Chiefs easily put those boys to bed. That same offense that came in here and put up 38, was held to 3 points by KC. Chiefs had the 3rd hardest SOS this year and handled it well.
Only way I see us making a game of it is we can connect with some deep passes, but judging by the weather its going to be an intermediate affair - the kind where Kelce can pick you apart. OBrien will need to spend an extra amount of time figuring out how to incorporate the TEs and RBs WITH INTENT. Like Deshaun joked above in the clip, It would be foolish not to use his wheels in a game like this.
Defensively? This is the best I got:
Chiefs 24
Hou 22
A strong winter storm system is expected to roll across the Kansas City area, bringing freezing rain and dumping a significant amount of snow this weekend, according to FOX4 meteorologist Karli Ritter.
“This is a long-duration, two-day event and we are expecting anywhere between 3 and 6 inches on average in the snow department,” said Ritter, who provides weather updates to The Star. “Although, there is some wiggle room that this could go up in some spots as the track of this storm becomes a little more certain.”
The forecast for Thursday is “pretty okay” with a little rain in some spots, but most people will get through the day without any issues, Ritter said. Friday, however, will be a different story.
“We’ll have rain, a wintry mix and snow starting late in the evening and that snow will carry over into Saturday,” Ritter said. “Combining those two days together, we are going to have some pretty big issues to try to travel on, especially Saturday.”
***
https://www.kansascity.com/news/weather-news/article239113538.html
***
So weather is shaping up as a possible factor in this game.
Looks like the worst of the weather in terms of precipitation will be thru by Sunday but know that after the front passes it my be cold, very cold in KC on Sunday.
I dunno has our boy DW4 ever played in cold conditions, say sub freezing ?
“This is a long-duration, two-day event and we are expecting anywhere between 3 and 6 inches on average in the snow department,” said Ritter, who provides weather updates to The Star. “Although, there is some wiggle room that this could go up in some spots as the track of this storm becomes a little more certain.”
The forecast for Thursday is “pretty okay” with a little rain in some spots, but most people will get through the day without any issues, Ritter said. Friday, however, will be a different story.
“We’ll have rain, a wintry mix and snow starting late in the evening and that snow will carry over into Saturday,” Ritter said. “Combining those two days together, we are going to have some pretty big issues to try to travel on, especially Saturday.”
***
https://www.kansascity.com/news/weather-news/article239113538.html
***
So weather is shaping up as a possible factor in this game.
Looks like the worst of the weather in terms of precipitation will be thru by Sunday but know that after the front passes it my be cold, very cold in KC on Sunday.
I dunno has our boy DW4 ever played in cold conditions, say sub freezing ?
Coochieliquor
Practice Squad
Chiefs fan here. Looking forward to the game Sunday. Seems it’s been forever since we’ve played.
I watched the Bills game and it seems if Buffalo had an average quarterback they likely would have won. Their weapons are worse than what we have except for their rb. Josh Allen is garbage, Mahomes will make you pay for those bad coverages. Should be a fun game. Got a feeling it’s gonna look a lot different from both teams than the last meeting. Fuller if playing is gonna be not 100% most likely. Andy Reid off a bye has a pretty good record. Our SOS is one of the toughest and we lost Mahomes for 2.5 games. Still got to 12 wins with a defense that was getting gouged early in the year. I’d be willing to bet you see an offense with lots of motion and things we haven’t broke out all year. Hill, Kelce, Hardman, Watkins, Williams are gonna be a handful for a very suspect defense.
I watched the Bills game and it seems if Buffalo had an average quarterback they likely would have won. Their weapons are worse than what we have except for their rb. Josh Allen is garbage, Mahomes will make you pay for those bad coverages. Should be a fun game. Got a feeling it’s gonna look a lot different from both teams than the last meeting. Fuller if playing is gonna be not 100% most likely. Andy Reid off a bye has a pretty good record. Our SOS is one of the toughest and we lost Mahomes for 2.5 games. Still got to 12 wins with a defense that was getting gouged early in the year. I’d be willing to bet you see an offense with lots of motion and things we haven’t broke out all year. Hill, Kelce, Hardman, Watkins, Williams are gonna be a handful for a very suspect defense.
CloakNNNdagger
Hall of Fame
At Clemson, he played in only three games in temperatures below 50 degrees. The coldest was a home game against North Carolina when it was 42 degrees.
In week 11 2018 (Dec when coming off of a BYE) at Washington, Watson played in his coldest game.............at ~50 degrees.
One of the things you have to worry about most (even without the possibility of precipitation) in the anticipated 35-40 degree Sunday game weather conditions, are the effects on players with or coming off of soft tissue injuries............a big worry.
The Texans don't have a great venue to acclimate to cold weather............even if they practiced outside, the temps have not been that cold during the day. If they were really forward thinking, they would have delayed their week's non contact practices until weather reached its coldest earlier in the week (40s) and played in NRG with the roof open. It's too late now, as the lows are not expected to get below 60 tonight or tomorrow night.
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Mr teX
Hall of Fame
uh huh.. Prior to last saturday's game, the Texans under BoB were 0-22 when down by 16 or more pts.....Josh Allen's qb rating in the 4th quarter this year was tops in the league at 139.6.... led the league. And all the ESPN knuckleheads picked the Bills to beat us......All of that crap went by the wayside last Saturday.
And so it starts again this week.....We know you guys should win. You guys are the #2 seed. Just know & understand that stats don't mean a whole lot when it comes to the 1 & done NFL playoffs.
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dream_team
Hall of Fame
Josh Allen was the reason they were in that game, but at the same time, the reason they lost that game. Very odd. I don't think he's garbage. He's a QB with alot of skill, but still young and learning the game. His mobility and designed runs presented alot of problems for the Texans. He also made some third down throws that were "Mahomes-esque". But in the end, it was his inexperience that caused that loss.
I think the Chiefs are going to win this game. The Texans offense hasn't given a good showing for the past several weeks, so it shouldn't be expected to be different this weekend. The only way I see the Texans able to win this one is if they're able to run at will.
austins23
Hall of Fame
Josh Allen is above average.
Far from garbage.
Texans had the 4th toughest schedule to start the year, the Chiefs 5th. The Chiefs beat 3 teams that had winning records at the end of the year, Ravens, Vikings, Patriots. The Texans also beat 3 teams that had winning records at the end of the year, CHIEFS, Patriots, Titans and then beat a 10-6 team in the playoffs.
This game is going to be closer than many think.
And cute screen name, by the way.
Uncle Rico
Ur apology should be as loud as Ur disrespect was
another phenomenal job of isolating strength vs weakness from the FO staff. Good read .. even for the eye test crowd!
www.footballoutsiders.com
Film Room: Houston Pass Defense
The Texans' best hopes of securing an upset in Kansas City this weekend lies with their pass defense. Thanks in large part to breakout safety Justin Reid, the Texans have been one of the best teams in the league at taking away the long bomb.