dream_team
Hall of Fame
So you're saying there's a chance...
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Wildcard Round - Bills at Texans
- Thread starter Seegara
- Start date
We can only hope one of them will turn into Olajuwon and carry this team to a championship.
Not according to NFLN. Media sites are like stats... you can find what you want.
It's THE Mike Harris, so it has to be correct. Right? It's not like the Texans went 3-2 vs. AFC playoff teams, or anything. 3-1, if you count games where the starters played. But, Mike has tables showing the Texans having the smallest chance. So it must be true.
Uncle Rico
Ur apology should be as loud as Ur disrespect was
you're right there is some bandwagon fallacy going on, but football outsiders does provide plenty of statistical support for why they purport the numbers they way they do. I mean what does a 25,000X regression really tell us? Its just one guy with an agenda right? Shrug.
I think the Texans will win inspite of poor QB play.
Marc Kryjewski
Practice Squad
Good Day Texans Fans,
Long time Bills fan checking in. Looking forward to the wildcard game on Saturday.
Will be an interesting test of the Bills 2nd ranked pass defense against the Texans explosive passing game.
Any update on Wil Fullers injury. He’s a key component to the Texans passing game and if he is out your offense is much more pedestrian.
Thinking Tre White can handle Hopkins or at least contain him. Bills secondary should be able to **** down the rest of Texan WR group. My concern is the threat of Duke Johnson and your versatile TE group exploring the weak areas of Bills zone D.
As far as Carlos Hyde is concerned, Bills Run D and excellent 8 defensive line is far better then the Texans offensive line.
It’s my guess that Bills can hold the Texans to 17 or less points.
Now, flipping to the Bills offense against the Texans D. JJ Watt is the elephant in the room. Not 100%, put a 75% JJ is still a huge force. To be honest this is a match-up of both teams weakest areas. Allen is explosive but inconsistent. Receivers are short but explosive in Brown and shifty in Beasley, unless the Texans can get pressure I think Allen lights up a bad secondary. Duke Williams is the x-factor as he brings height, great blocking and can high point the ball. Bills run the ball well and offensive line may be able to dominate. Allen is close to unstoppable inside the 10.
My projection, Bills 27 - Texans 16
Long time Bills fan checking in. Looking forward to the wildcard game on Saturday.
Will be an interesting test of the Bills 2nd ranked pass defense against the Texans explosive passing game.
Any update on Wil Fullers injury. He’s a key component to the Texans passing game and if he is out your offense is much more pedestrian.
Thinking Tre White can handle Hopkins or at least contain him. Bills secondary should be able to **** down the rest of Texan WR group. My concern is the threat of Duke Johnson and your versatile TE group exploring the weak areas of Bills zone D.
As far as Carlos Hyde is concerned, Bills Run D and excellent 8 defensive line is far better then the Texans offensive line.
It’s my guess that Bills can hold the Texans to 17 or less points.
Now, flipping to the Bills offense against the Texans D. JJ Watt is the elephant in the room. Not 100%, put a 75% JJ is still a huge force. To be honest this is a match-up of both teams weakest areas. Allen is explosive but inconsistent. Receivers are short but explosive in Brown and shifty in Beasley, unless the Texans can get pressure I think Allen lights up a bad secondary. Duke Williams is the x-factor as he brings height, great blocking and can high point the ball. Bills run the ball well and offensive line may be able to dominate. Allen is close to unstoppable inside the 10.
My projection, Bills 27 - Texans 16
Texansphan
Football connoisseur
Nice post.
Bills are definitely not to be underestimated.
The way I see it, Bills have an edge on D, but I give Texans the nod on O. Texans STs have been a pleasant surprise this year. While not being spectacular, they are solid.
Coaching probably favors Bills.
Ultimately, both teams are fairly evenly matched so it basically comes down to who plays better on the day.
Texans are a streaky team - if the good Texans show up on Saturday they will scratch out a win. If they are slow to start and the Bills can jump them then Bills take it.
Here's hoping for a good clean game with no officiating stuff ups.
Texazan
Our HOF 34
My thoughts exactly. I wanted anyone but Buffalo. Oh well, put up or shut up, again.
Speedy
Former Yeller Dweller
The Texans strength on defense is stopping the run, right?
The Bengals were the worst team in the league this year giving up 148.9 yards per game on the ground. Since their bye week the Texans have given up 168 YPG on the ground. Even if you take away yesterday's totals against the 2's, it's still 155 YPG. And for the season, the Texans were 8th worst with 121 YPG.
The Bengals were the worst team in the league this year giving up 148.9 yards per game on the ground. Since their bye week the Texans have given up 168 YPG on the ground. Even if you take away yesterday's totals against the 2's, it's still 155 YPG. And for the season, the Texans were 8th worst with 121 YPG.
Mr teX
Hall of Fame
This is what it’s all been building to with BoB for me; damn all the other narratives folks have on here about him. If we lose this game and flame out 1 and done, he has to be let go. Goes down in my book as a Good coach, just not good enough to get us to the next level; Onward & upward.
Texansballer74
The Marine
Well said DB.
It’s going to take a complete team effort starting with coaching, play calling, and player executions. Now some players will have a bad game, hopefully we can over come it. There will be some bad calls, hopefully we will fight through adversity. The Bills will come out very physical, hopefully we take their punches, shake them off and fight back.
Wolf
100% Texan
I figured a typo or autocorrect kicked in... QB play or OB playI think the QB will play great and the Texans win despite being out coached.
Any team that is outscored over the course of a season is going to look bad in statistical analysis. According to Pythagorean expectation,the Texans should have won 7 games this season. So when you think about it, the Texans actually overachieved this year to win 10 wins. The little Steel Blue engine that could!
Does that make sense to you? Do you think the Texans won more than they should have? Or left wins on the table? That's what statistics can tell you when you're not eyeballing the games. Yes, they were biatch slapped by Baltimore. But they battled their arse off against the Saints, Chiefs, and Pats and came away 2-1 against these Super Bowl contenders. The Texans pissed away games against the Panthers and Broncos, and almost let the Jags steal one. All at NRG. But with the division on the line, they went into Nashville and took down the red hot Titans.
The Texans are an enigma. Wrapped in a riddle. Surrounded by dysfunction. Number crunching can't come to grips with that kind of inconsistency. Still, if the Bills and the Texans play their best game on Saturday, my eyes say the Texans win. And it ain't close.
Mr teX
Hall of Fame
Like your optimism, but the bills have put up greater than 24 pts only 3 times this year and of those teams they did do it against, none are in the playoffs....2 are picking top 5 in next years draft.
Your defense is good....really good and much better than ours, but unless we’re turning it over, I can’t see ya’ll holding us to 17...
Your offense is obviously the weak link and though Allen has a big arm, I can’t see him hurting us much with it seeing he has not thrown for 300 yds in a game this year. apart from that, I think he gives us a few which proves to be the difference in a close game...some like 24-17 Texans.
No you don't:
We'll lose.
(I'm sorry, I couldn't help myself. I had to do it again.)
If DW4 doesn't play much better than he has in the last month you will be correct.
QB has to play better, HC has to coach better, and everyone else needs to minimize mistakes and do their freakin' jobs. It's basic stuff, but yet the Texans seem to fail even the basics sometimes.
Here is a crazy stat for a team that is 10-6.
Total Points
Texans: 378
Opponents: 385
We have a -7 on point differential this season.
The only playoff win we have under O'Brien came in 2016 when we had a -49 margin. So maybe it is a good sign that we will win this weekend.
NastyNate
I go kerplunk
This team just isn't that good. It's fool's gold.
banned1976
sleeper mode
How do you think that’s going to happen? How will they win if Watson plays poorly? I’m very curious about how you think the Texans beat the Bills if Watson plays poorly. They nearly lost to the Bucs with Winston trying to give them the game. And the Bills are a far better team than the Bucs.
Or are you just trying to stir the pot again?
I don't feel like they've overachieved this year.
The team that gets better QB play is going to win the game
It could be like the Colts game where defenders drop 2 ints.
Or DW4 plays poorly but the defense plays well enough to win. Like the Jags/Raiders games
banned1976
sleeper mode
Look at the level of competition. None of the teams you mentioned are in the playoffs.
Yeah, ok, if the Texans get really lucky they win in spite of Watson playing poorly. I seriously doubt it but okay.
IMHO, if Watson is mediocre or worse, Buffalo wins. Of course, Watson can play really well and they could still lose. Texans defense isn’t carrying this team further than the WC.
Texan Asylum
Hall of Fame
Lucky drops the mic on this one.
Texansballer74
The Marine
Another good thread derailed by dumping on Watson. Wow,
Two questions:
1) How can a QB that has averaged a little over 200 yards/game passing, with zero 300 yard games to his name, light up any secondary?
2) Who is Duke Williams? Is this a real player or someone you made up to see if we are paying attention?
Texecutioner
Hall of Fame
The Bills have a defense that I feel could give a lot of problems to Watson and O'Brien's game plan for offense. I also could see Allen giving their defense problems with his scrambling.
badboy
Hall of Fame
Kansas beats Ravens, Titans beat PATs and we beat Buffalo. Now that would be interesting!
dream_team
Hall of Fame
So what you're saying is the Texans will win, but Watson will play poorly, but he still plays better than Allen. Got it!
Texecutioner
Hall of Fame
With his scrambling that went over 500 yards and 9 TD's he ran throughout the season. He can make the throws mixed in with the scrambles to move the chains and keep their offense on the field. Josh Allen improved a lot this season.
dream_team
Hall of Fame
Wait... but according to our QB guru, Allen has been playing consistently well this year!? I'm confused.
I'm expecting a low-scoring, good game. O'Brien is stubborn and will continue to try to run the ball up the middle against your strong front 7. If you can apply pressure on our OL, then stopping DW4 has been somewhat easier this season. He's been reluctant to run, instead he scrambles all around the pocket and hope someone comes open. If Fuller is out, which is most likely... just double-team Hopkins because the other receivers are struggling to get separation.
The defense is inconsistent as well. They stop the run ok, but are susceptible against big runs because the secondary can't tackle. W/o Watt, the pass rush has been non-existant. Expect alot of blitzes & man coverage, so we'll see how Allen responds to that.
Uncle Rico
Ur apology should be as loud as Ur disrespect was
2019 Texans were only the 4th team this decade to win 10 games and have a NEGATIVE DVOA. ThAt tells you everything you need to know. Shameful losses to Denver and Carolina (not so much at the time but humor me) and WOW games with KC & NE.
that’s the thing is they really should have won MORE. They lost one game on last years record. I had them pegged at 9-7 preseason - BEFORE all the turbulence with Tunsil, JD etc.
This is why I think regression analysis looks unfavorably on the Texans because you can’t count on them to make the consistent SMART decisions I’ll even lump Watson in that group the last month of the season.
it’s always “next year” for us.
a model gets run 25,000 times and that’s what it delivered. If you say Harris has some reason for skewing the numbers ok. How does it explain TENN all of a sudden being a dark horse (no thanks to us!)??
dude I’m just tired of the same dog and pony show every year. I think Watson is great, I’d hate for him to spend another second with OBrien. I’m watching a train wreck in real time and I don’t have the stomach for it.
ATXtexanfan
Hall of Fame
I just didnt like Allen coming out. Didnt see him as a first rd pick. Your right he has improved. His ceiling has moved up as a pro.
Bugman7star
All Pro
Any given Saturday/Sunday. DW4 is due for an above average/good game. He has shown it against good teams this year (NE's supposed top defense is an example). If we hold Buffalo to 23 pts or lower, I think we win.
Texecutioner
Hall of Fame
Same with me. I thought he improved a lot this season surprisingly.
TexanBorn51
All Pro
TexanBorn51
All Pro
Someone here had mentioned that there is a poll around here? Who Texans vs Bills is going to win this game.
Marc Kryjewski
Practice Squad
Interesting fact, Oilers best Chargers in 60 and 61, Bilks beat Chargers in 64 and 65. Then after dominating the AFL for the first half decade, they lost their place and let the Raiders, Jets and Chiefs lead the AFL into the merged league
Yes, I'm much more concerned with Allen extending drives with his feet. I really like Allen's future as a downfield passer, in the Big Ben mold. He's not there, yet.
Actually, without seeing what the statistician is trying to accomplish, it tells me nothing. How many variables are included? What is the confidence level? How well have the equation predicted future events? You could run 250 million regressions for a football season, and the 250,000,001st could be completely off the regression line.
Baseball is a sport that is very statistical friendly. You can have some level of confidence of how a batter may fare with 1 out, runners on the corners, facing a LHP throwing a sinker and slider. Because there are enough data points.
In football, there are only about 60 plays from scrimmage in a game, per side. And even in similar situations, there's not enough similarity to make a real comparison. 3rd & 7 between the 40's. In the 2nd quarter, the offense was in 11 personnel with trips to the weakside. The defense was in a soft cover 2 shell with a spy on the back. 4th quarter, same down and distance, same position on the field. Offense is in an empty backfield set, and the defense is in press coverage with a weakside safety blitz. Oh, did I mention the wind has picked up and it's just begun to rain? Two completely different events. With 22 players on the field, each in their own micro event. Just trying to wrap your head around the variables in a singular football play is a statistical nightmare. And throw all of that away in the next game, because everything has changed.
So instead, someone will put generic statistical outcomes in a formula to get a generic result. It is good enough to tell you what happened. But poor in telling you what will happen. How can you correlate the performance of the team that defeated the Chiefs in Arrowhead with the team that stunk up NRG two weeks prior? Even a team that is consistently dominant, like the Ravens, are not easily predictable come the playoffs. What happens if the Ravens are down 2 scores in the 2nd half? That didn't happen enough in the regular season to make a statistically relevant estimate. Too small a sample size. But it is more likely to happen in a playoff game, because they will face better competition.
I can understand why you, me, and everyone else are frustrated with this team. They're brutally inconsistent in every facet, except when we don't want them to be (1st down? Run up the middle, silly). But a train wreck? 2-14 was a train wreck. 10-6 with a home game in the 1st round is better than a swift kick in the rear. And when you look back to the offseason, firing the GM after the draft, bungling negotiations with your Pro Bowl edge, losing your starting RB in preseason, trading for a LT after training camp is over...the results aren't that shabby. 20 NFL teams wish they were in the Texans cleats right now.
texanhead08
All Pro
I think this is a bad matchup for the Texans. I hope I am wrong though, and don't forget we were behind last year at NRG when we played them until Allen went out and their terrible backup threw 2 4th quarter interceptions.
Quoted for truth
We will see how each of the QBs play.
Texansballer74
The Marine
Of course we are going to see how each quarterback plays. Just be advised the Bills front 7 and secondary is way better than ours. Just be advised that Allen will not see the same type of heat Watson will be facing. Allen will be operating out of a much cleaner pocket.
I wonder if we'll get the wave going in the first half.
amazing80
Hall of Fame
What if we lose 27-21? Not dominated but the offense looks like it has all year.
PapaL
Loose Screw
We can only hope one of them will turn into Olajuwon and carry this team to a championship.
Thank you for understanding that. I was sober when I wrote it. Ha!
TejasTom
All Pro
While we are in offense
Rich Schmidt
Myopicone
You know, the Texans could trot out AJ on the 1st drive of each half, he was nails. Then let DW4 take over. Maybe this is the plan??
Texans usually handle good defenses with below average offenses, kind of their thing. I expect a ugly well deserved win. 20-17 or so. DW4 probably needs some late heroics after we lose our halftime lead. Our ST will make the extra play
Texans usually handle good defenses with below average offenses, kind of their thing. I expect a ugly well deserved win. 20-17 or so. DW4 probably needs some late heroics after we lose our halftime lead. Our ST will make the extra play