Proposed 2015 NFL Rule Changes

[ObsiWan]

Then leave the damn thing alone. Your reward for scoring a TD is an almost automatic extra point. I don't see why the powers that be are hell bent on punishing success.

I'm with you. This seems like an awful lot of effort to fix something that ain't broke. Teams already have the two-pt option.
They can drag Doug Flutie out of retirement if they want to bring back the drop kick.

He made the last one back in 2006. Maybe he can teach some of these younguns to do it.

 

[CloakNNNdagger]

I'm with you. This seems like an awful lot of effort to fix something that ain't broke. Teams already have the two-pt option.
They can drag Doug Flutie out of retirement if they want to bring back the drop kick.

He made the last one back in 2006. Maybe he can teach some of these younguns to do it.

After he teaches the ball to bounce favorably.

 

[paycheck71]

After he teaches the ball to bounce favorably.

There was "A Football Life" or a "30 for 30" or another program like that on the evolution of the football. Today's pointy ball is definitely made for passing.

 

[Double Barrel]

There was "A Football Life" or a "30 for 30" or another program like that on the evolution of the football. Today's pointy ball is definitely made for passing.

yep, it was "A Football Life" episode called The Forward Pass. I still have it on my DVR. Great documentary on the history of the sport, and it made me reluctant to get upset about the on-going evolution to the game that has been going on for over a century.

 

[Double Barrel]

NFL moves extra point to 15-yard line for 2015 season

NFL owners have approved the competition committee's proposal on extra points.

The NFL announced the extra point will now be kicked from the 15-yard line with two-point conversions remaining at the 2-yard line. The new rule also gives the defense the ability to score two points on returns.

The approved rule was one of three proposals considered by owners Tuesday at the NFL's Spring League Meeting.
Source

 

[Playoffs]

Dean Blandino ‏@DeanBlandino

The extra point rule for 2015 just changed.

Snap for kick from the 15-yard line,

2-point try stays at 2-yard line and defense can return blocked kick for 2 points.

Field Yates ‏@FieldYates

Re: new extra point rules. NFL teams went 163-171 (95.3%) on field goals between 30-35 yards in 2014. http://bit.ly/1PUSm0Q

Mike Garafolo @MikeGarafolo

Good question. Can score from the 15 for 2. Fake, botched snap, whatever.

Andrew Scurr @andrewscurr
what happens if there's a botched snap on a kick? Can they not attempt to score a la fake FG. Also no vinatieri-style passes?​

Yes. Returns of blocked kicks are worth 2.

Jay Lampert @MortChristenson
but can defense also return and score on blocked PAT? Or just 2 point try?​

Important note: Extra point decisions can change after penalties. (e.g. a defensive penalty on a kick, offense can then go for 2 from the 1)

Dean Blandino confirms Redskins and Raiders didn't approve the changes to the extra point.

 

[ObsiWan]

Totally un-effin'-necessary.

 

[infantrycak]

Totally un-effin'-necessary.

So? It also hurts nothing?

 

[Mollywhopper]

Totally un-effin'-necessary.

This is my exact immediate reaction as well. And then I think about what a great product we generally get from the NFL, and how on fire this league is at the moment, certainly compared to other sports leagues here. I believe a good part of that is the league's continued effort to be ever evolving in terms of rules, strategies, and all the extra curricular junk (fantasy, great draft process, red zone viewing, etc.) the league brings about. The NFL never sees the stagnancy of MLB, or a post-superstar drought like the NBA had. This is a very minor touch, but it just goes to show the league is always on their toes with new ideas and whatnot.

 

[ObsiWan]

So? It also hurts nothing?

Riiiight.... I'll check back with you when one of our kicks goes wide left from the 15 when it would have been just inside the uprights from the two.

 

[infantrycak]

Riiiight.... I'll check back with you when one of our kicks goes wide left from the 15 when it would have been just inside the uprights from the two.

You gonna get back to me when JJ blocks one and it gets run back for 2?

 

[gwallaia]

As soon as players start getting injured returning blocked XP's, they will change the rule again.

 

[infantrycak]

As soon as players start getting injured returning blocked XP's, they will change the rule again.

So in what maybe 20 years? There's only 2-5 blocked kicks a year now. You recall a rash of injuries?

 

[ObsiWan]

You gonna get back to me when JJ blocks one and it gets run back for 2?

I thought O'Brien took him off the FG team after those running into the kicker penalties.

But yeah. You got a deal. It'll be interesting to see which scenario plays out first.

 

[gwallaia]

I forgot to include the sarcasm smiley in my post Cak.

 

[infantrycak]

I forgot to include the sarcasm smiley in my post Cak.

Sorry - I should have known better.

 

[Giant Tiger]

Then leave the damn thing alone. Your reward for scoring a TD is an almost automatic extra point. I don't see why the powers that be are hell bent on punishing success.

I agree with this; a converted TD (automatic PAT) should be worth more than 2 FGs. I don't like a blocked PAT returned for 2 points. Say a team is losing by 2 FGs 6-0, ties it up with a TD; but the PAT is blocked & run back. The team that scored the TD should be ahead IMO.

 

[NCTexan]

I agree with this; a converted TD (automatic PAT) should be worth more than 2 FGs. I don't like a blocked PAT returned for 2 points. Say a team is losing by 2 FGs 6-0, ties it up with a TD; but the PAT is blocked & run back. The team that scored the TD should be ahead IMO.

My Freshman year suitemate invented what we called "Edelman" rules football. The only change was that if one team scored a TD and the other didn't the team with the TD won automatically, no matter the score.

 

[ObsiWan]

I agree with this; a converted TD (automatic PAT) should be worth more than 2 FGs. I don't like a blocked PAT returned for 2 points. Say a team is losing by 2 FGs 6-0, ties it up with a TD; but the PAT is blocked & run back. The team that scored the TD should be ahead IMO.

I'll give you more potential weirdness. Suppose we just made the extra point from the 15 then holding is called. Now we have to kick - for one freakin' pt - what amounts to a 42/43 yd FG.
Or go for two from the 12 because the 10-yd penalty must still be enforced from where ever the LoS happens to be. Do we even get to change? Maybe once you make your call to kick, you're stuck with it post penalty...? Anyone know how that would really work?
Coaches have enough crap to think about without putting this unnecessary crappage in the game.

 

[Playoffs]

Another interesting twist is that the ball will be live after the extra point or two-point conversion attempt. This means that the defense has a chance to score two points if they force a turnover. It makes the post-touchdown play a much more interesting one from a defensive perspective and will force teams to really consider the personnel they use on extra points and two-point conversion attempts.

It's worth noting that teams which line up at the 15-yard line can still score two points if they get into the end zone, whether because they faked it or had to abort the kick attempt. Teams are also allowed to change their mind if penalties occur. If it's an offensive penalty, they can choose to kick the ball from the 20-yard line (in the case of a false start) or the 25-yard line (in the case of holding) for one point. If it's a defensive penalty, they can try a two-point attempt from the 1-yard line.

Safeties also come into the equation. Philadelphia's proposal would have made any safety worth two points, but under the accepted competition committee proposal, they will be worth one point, regardless which direction they go. If the defense possesses the ball, leaves the end zone and then re-enters the end zone, the offense can get a safety if they make a tackle. If the offense possesses the ball and somehow manages to be taken for a 90-plus yard safety, the defense would get one point.

 

[ChampionTexan]

I'll give you more potential weirdness. Suppose we just made the extra point from the 15 then holding is called. Now we have to kick - for one freakin' pt - what amounts to a 42/43 yd FG.
Or go for two from the 12 because the 10-yd penalty must still be enforced from where ever the LoS happens to be. Do we even get to change? Maybe once you make your call to kick, you're stuck with it post penalty...? Anyone know how that would really work?
Coaches have enough crap to think about without putting this unnecessary crappage in the game.

Keep in mind that the driving force behind the change was that the existing extra point was automatic to the point that lots and lots of fans didn't even think it was worth watching (a view which I wholeheartedly agree with FWIW). I think the scenario you outlined is exactly the type they're trying to achieve (with PO's previously clarified point taken into account of course).

As to making the coach's job a bit more involved - again, I view that as an advantage, not a drawback to the rule.

 

[PapaL]

Extra points were always the start of snack and or bathroom break. They chose to try to make it more interesting as opposed to just getting rid of it. I'm honestly fine w it being more interesting.

 

[Playoffs]

I did a quick guesstimation yesterday based on the difference between middle of the field FGs and XPs and # of tries in 2014 that resulted in an approximately 18 more XPs missed in 2014. Seems high to me.

 

[ObsiWan]

Another interesting twist is that the ball will be live after the extra point or two-point conversion attempt. This means that the defense has a chance to score two points if they force a turnover. It makes the post-touchdown play a much more interesting one from a defensive perspective and will force teams to really consider the personnel they use on extra points and two-point conversion attempts.

It's worth noting that teams which line up at the 15-yard line can still score two points if they get into the end zone, whether because they faked it or had to abort the kick attempt. Teams are also allowed to change their mind if penalties occur. If it's an offensive penalty, they can choose to kick the ball from the 20-yard line (in the case of a false start) or the 25-yard line (in the case of holding) for one point. If it's a defensive penalty, they can try a two-point attempt from the 1-yard line.

So the offense has to line up at the 20 or 25, respectively, on a false start penalty or holding penalty and can only switch to going for two - at the one - if the defense commits a penalty? They can still go for two, in the case of the offensive penalties, but the LoS will be the 20 or 25.

Got it. Still think it's unnecessary.

 

[Double Barrel]

I find it ironic that so many folks in the media are bagging on kickers when reporting this story, yet kickers and punters are the last remnants of why the sport is called FOOTball in the first place.

wondering if it should be changed to "passball" at some point...or would that be "throwball"?...

 

[dalemurphy]

This is the first NFL rule change during my lifetime that I am 100% supportive of. I think it is great! This rule change does the following:
* Decreases the number of special team snaps while increasing the importance and impact of the special teams.
* Rewards teams with intelligent/thoughtful, forward-thinking coaches and punished teams with brainless coaching.
* Creates interesting strategic decisions at much earlier points in the game.
* Removes the most boring play in the NFL.
* Forces teams to shift focus from kickers with big legs to accurate kickers, which will:
1. lower the 50-60yard field goals made and attempted, thereby increasing # of 4th down attempts
2. lower the number of touchbacks.

 

[dalemurphy]

Doing some quick statistical analysis, I discovered the following over the past few NFL seasons:

Extra point conversion % = significantly over 99%
30-39yd conversation rate = roughly 90% (many of those misses were from 36-39). Adjusting for that, I would estimate 32 yard percentage at roughly 92-93%.

It will be interesting, though, to see the impact of the added stress and focus on the extra points. Imagine Fat Randy a couple years ago, lining up in the 3rd quarter for a 32 yard extra point to tie the game after he missed a 40yd field goal a few minutes earlier... Mental toughness on the part of the kickers will be an even greater premium... For now on, most of the time a team decides to kick an extra point, it is because the score dictates they need that "one" point = added pressure. Also, the kickers will feel the pressure from their own teams, because the team will be choosing to rely on the kicker for 1/2 as many points as the offense could score. The fans, players, and coaches after each missed extra point won't think "what a fluke", they will think (or say) "dang, should have trusted the offense and not the *** kicker".

 

[ObsiWan]

This is the first NFL rule change during my lifetime that I am 100% supportive of. I think it is great! This rule change does the following:
* Decreases the number of special team snaps while increasing the importance and impact of the special teams.
* Rewards teams with intelligent/thoughtful, forward-thinking coaches and punished teams with brainless coaching.
* Creates interesting strategic decisions at much earlier points in the game.
* Removes the most boring play in the NFL.
* Forces teams to shift focus from kickers with big legs to accurate kickers, which will:
1. lower the 50-60yard field goals made and attempted, thereby increasing # of 4th down attempts
2. lower the number of touchbacks.

Point for point rebuttal:
* INCREASES the opportunities for starters to get injured - especially on defense.
* That is already happening and has been happening since Sid Gilman juiced up the passing game and Bill Walsh perfected the WCO.
* Coaches - most of them - are conservative by nature. I'm thinking most of them will still go for the kick
* The most boring play in football is the victory formation, especially if your team is on the losing side of the score.
* What gives you the idea teams don't already value accuracy over "big legs" in their kickers? Little will change in how kickers are scouted/selected.

Like I said before, it'll all be fun and games until what should have been a routine 7-0 score for us turns into 6-2 because someone gets called for holding and then they block the 43 yd extra point attempt.

Am I being a Bob Bummer, yes. But I've been a Texans fan for too long to believe any of this crap will work in our favor.

 

[JB]

This is the first NFL rule change during my lifetime that I am 100% supportive of. I think it is great! This rule change does the following:
* Decreases the number of special team snaps while increasing the importance and impact of the special teams.

How so?

 

[dalemurphy]

Point for point rebuttal:
* INCREASES the opportunities for starters to get injured - especially on defense.
* That is already happening and has been happening since Sid Gilman juiced up the passing game and Bill Walsh perfected the WCO.
* Coaches - most of them - are conservative by nature. I'm thinking most of them will still go for the kick
* The most boring play in football is the victory formation, especially if your team is on the losing side of the score.
* What gives you the idea teams don't already value accuracy over "big legs" in their kickers? Little will change in how kickers are scouted/selected.

Like I said before, it'll all be fun and games until what should have been a routine 7-0 score for us turns into 6-2 because someone gets called for holding and then they block the 43 yd extra point attempt.

Am I being a Bob Bummer, yes. But I've been a Texans fan for too long to believe any of this crap will work in our favor.

1. I am in favor of more real football plays each game. Injuries happen. I prefer them to happen on a meaningful scoring play than on an automatic kick... If preserving players are important, how about a nonstop, running clock. That will help keep starters healthy?... But that would suck because we want to watch football happen. Now we get a little more of it!

2.conservative coaches who ignore the dynamics of the rule change will hurt their team. Coaches who are thoughtful will give them team an advantage. I like that! Especially given our current coaching situation.

3. Instead of approximately 10 30-39yd kicks... Teams will average 40-50 per season... An average of 3-4 kicks from mid range per game will necessarily shift the importance of intermediate range accuracy.

4. I am not sure why you don't like the possibility of a three point swing during what was previously the most irrelevant and boring play of the game... And one that repeated itself 1200 times during the course of the NFL season. Do you realize that there are more kick returns for TDs each year than there are missed extra points?

 

[dalemurphy]

How so?

By encouraging more 2-point attempts... And making the 1point attempt more difficult, which also means more of those kicks for one point are crucial based on the game score instead of it being an automatic decision until the 4th quarter... and providing the potential for.a blocked kick and return for 2 points.

 

[JB]

By encouraging more 2-point attempts... And making the 1point attempt more difficult, which also means more of those kicks for one point are crucial based on the game score instead of it being an automatic decision until the 4th quarter... and providing the potential for.a blocked kick and return for 2 points.

I don't think there will be a drastic increase in the number of 2 pt tries, and fewer out of the base offense. 90% success rate on kicks is still much greater than 2 pt conversion %

 

[austins23]

The Fat Aggie kicking a PAT from 30+ yds? Maybe Kubes was on to something not watching him kick. I think I like the change. Especially the opportunity to go for 2 from the 1 yd line if there is a penalty on the D during the PAT.

Lynden Trail may have just found his spot on the FG Block team...The ball has to start just a bit lower from that distance.

 

[ObsiWan]

I don't think there will be a drastic increase in the number of 2 pt tries, and fewer out of the base offense. 90% success rate on kicks is still much greater than 2 pt conversion %

Here are the FG kicking stats from last season. There were few misses from the new XP range. I'm with you, I doubt many coaches will opt to go for two at a <50% success rate when kicking from the 15 still should yield a 95%+ success rate.

 

[dalemurphy]

By encouraging more 2-point attempts.

I don't think there will be a drastic increase in the number of 2 pt tries, and fewer out of the base offense. 90% success rate on kicks is still much greater than 2 pt conversion %

Over the past 5 years, the success rate of 32yard field goals is between 92-93%. Last year, the 2 point conversation rate was 47.5%. Therefore, other variables, here is what would happen:

A team that scored 50 tds and kicked each time, would score 46-47 points on the extra point attempt throughout the season. (Down from the previous avetage of 49.7 for every 50)

A team that exclusively attempted 2 point conversions and had the same amount of Tds would accumulate 47-48 points throughout the season.

This is statistically very significant. It also will reward teams that execute better when it matters and reward teams who have coaches who know what they are doing. Statistically, since it is now slightly advantageous to go for 2, each extra point attempt this season (roughly 1000) will be decided based on a team's game plan or the game situation, even in the first two quarters. Awesome!

 

[dalemurphy]

Here are the FG kicking stats from last season. There were few misses from the new XP range. I'm with you, I doubt many coaches will opt to go for two at a <50% success rate when kicking from the 15 still should yield a 95%+ success rate.

32 yard kicks dont succeed 95% of the time, which is what the kick will be with the line of scrimmage at the 15... Based on statistics (see post above), it is now slightly beneficial to go for 2.

 

[dalemurphy]

What about celebration penalties on TDs? Will the defense have the option to enforce the penalty on the extra point? Imagine a team scoring a TD in the 4th quarter to take an 8 point lead... Celebrating... And now having to male a 47 yard kick to grab the two score lead.

 

[ObsiWan]

Over the past 5 years, the success rate of 32yard field goals is between 92-93%. Last year, the 2 point conversation rate was 47.5%. Therefore, other variables, here is what would happen:

A team that scored 50 tds and kicked each time, would score 46-47 points on the extra point attempt throughout the season. (Down from the previous avetage of 49.7 for every 50)

A team that exclusively attempted 2 point conversions and had the same amount of Tds would accumulate 47-48 points throughout the season.

This is statistically very significant. It also will reward teams that execute better when it matters and reward teams who have coaches who know what they are doing. Statistically, since it is now slightly advantageous to go for 2, each extra point attempt this season (roughly 1000) will be decided based on a team's game plan or the game situation, even in the first two quarters. Awesome!

First, compare success rates over the same time period. What was the 32 yd FG success rate last year?

Second, a team that scored 50 TDs would have 49-50 additional pts depending on who their kicker is. Vinateri, Nick Folk, Haushka (Seattle), and several others were all perfect last season from 30-39 yds out. The guys that weren't perfect only missed one or two, from that range, all season long. So the risk of going for two is still much greater, over the course of the season, than taking the 32 yd XP.

Third, the likelihood of an INT or fumble is greater than getting a kick blocked. This site indicates only 31 FGs were blocked all of last year. Now the Texans alone came up with 34 turnovers (20 picks, 14 fumbles recovered), so from a per team viewpoint, you're talking risking one missed XP - maybe two if you count just flat missing the kick - all season long, versus risking a fumble or INT AND the possibility of the defense scoring on that screwup.

Few coaches will look at that risk/reward equation and say it's worth it unless they need the points to catch up.

 

[JB]

Over the past 5 years, the success rate of 32yard field goals is between 92-93%. Last year, the 2 point conversation rate was 47.5%. Therefore, other variables, here is what would happen:

A team that scored 50 tds and kicked each time, would score 46-47 points on the extra point attempt throughout the season. (Down from the previous avetage of 49.7 for every 50)

A team that exclusively attempted 2 point conversions and had the same amount of Tds would accumulate 47-48 points throughout the season.

This is statistically very significant. It also will reward teams that execute better when it matters and reward teams who have coaches who know what they are doing. Statistically, since it is now slightly advantageous to go for 2, each extra point attempt this season (roughly 1000) will be decided based on a team's game plan or the game situation, even in the first two quarters. Awesome!

You're trying to read too much into it. Coaches will still follow the chart that says in this scenario go for 1, that scenario go for two. There will be very little change. But it's still early and we can play the want to and what if games... might see a change in pre-season but come counting time 90% > 48% all day long and only the foolish and the desperate will go for 2 on a consistent basis

 

[infantrycak]

You're trying to read too much into it. Coaches will still follow the chart that says in this scenario go for 1, that scenario go for two. There will be very little change. But it's still early and we can play the want to and what if games... might see a change in pre-season but come counting time 90% > 48% all day long and only the foolish and the desperate will go for 2 on a consistent basis

Agreed this will make very little difference in coaches decisions on whether to go for 1 or 2.

I think the biggest difference will be in personnel selection, particularly toward the end of games, opposing the kicks.

 

[JB]

Agreed this will make very little difference in coaches decisions on whether to go for 1 or 2.

I think the biggest difference will be in personnel selection, particularly toward the end of games, opposing the kicks.

Yup, blocking the XP will take on a big significance if it now can be returned for two. Look for a lot of 6'10" ex BBall players to be signed to fill out the last couple spots on the 53

 

[infantrycak]

Yup, blocking the XP will take on a big significance if it now can be returned for two. Look for a lot of 6'10" ex BBall players to be signed to fill out the last couple spots on the 53

I was thinking more of JJ at LB in the middle practicing his 61" box jump.

 

[Mollywhopper]

I want to see a team score a TD to take a one point lead with less than a minute left decide to take a knee on the point after play instead of risking a TO return.

 

[paycheck71]

Clarification on what happens in case of a penalty during PAT with the new rules.

Teams can change mind on extra point after penalty

...if the team that has scored a touchdown opts to go for two but is called for holding, the team can then go for two from the 12, or go for one. The only catch is that the 10-yard penalty also would apply to the try for one point, pushing the line of scrimmage to the 25 and making the kick 42 yards. Still, a 42-yard kick for one would make more sense than a 12-yard gain for two.

The same concept applies in the event of a defensive penalty. If the team that has scored goes for one and the defense jumps offside, the team can then go for two, with the penalty enforced from the two.

 

[dalemurphy]

You're trying to read too much into it. Coaches will still follow the chart that says in this scenario go for 1, that scenario go for two. There will be very little change. But it's still early and we can play the want to and what if games... might see a change in pre-season but come counting time 90% > 48% all day long and only the foolish and the desperate will go for 2 on a consistent basis

Some coaches will. Some won't. Food coaches will factor in a number of variables game to game. My guess is you will, in september see multiple teams score opening drive TDs and go for 2. Some of the dumber coaches will go strictly off the chart starting in the 1st quarter. Others wont even think about it until they face media scrutiny after a loss attributed to their decision on a conversion.

Most importantly, though, is the play will now have some suspense and risk attached to it... No matter what decision the coaches make. By the way, if kickers maintain a 92% success rate at 32 yards and teams continued to kick the extra points at the same rate as before, their will be over 100 missed extra point kicks this year... Instead of the 8 missed last season.

 

[dalemurphy]

First, compare success rates over the same time period. What was the 32 yd FG success rate last year?

Second, a team that scored 50 TDs would have 49-50 additional pts depending on who their kicker is. Vinateri, Nick Folk, Haushka (Seattle), and several others were all perfect last season from 30-39 yds out. The guys that weren't perfect only missed one or two, from that range, all season long. So the risk of going for two is still much greater, over the course of the season, than taking the 32 yd XP.

Third, the likelihood of an INT or fumble is greater than getting a kick blocked. This site indicates only 31 FGs were blocked all of last year. Now the Texans alone came up with 34 turnovers (20 picks, 14 fumbles recovered), so from a per team viewpoint, you're talking risking one missed XP - maybe two if you count just flat missing the kick - all season long, versus risking a fumble or INT AND the possibility of the defense scoring on that screwup.

Few coaches will look at that risk/reward equation and say it's worth it unless they need the points to catch up.

The perfection by some kickers in kicks between 30-39yards is a statistical anomaly due to small sample size. Sure a number of guys will be perfect in 10-15 attempts. However, mark my words, NOBODY will be perfect from 32 yards over the course of 40-60 attempts, which is one reason why i think the rate of success will drop from92% down to the upper 80%'s.

 

[JB]

The perfection by some kickers in kicks between 30-39yards is a statistical anomaly due to small sample size. Sure a number of guys will be perfect in 10-15 attempts. However, mark my words, NOBODY will be perfect from 32 yards over the course of 40-60 attempts, which is one reason why i think the rate of success will drop from92% down to the upper 80%'s.

And that beats the hell outta the upper 40's? Only if you're talking winter weather

 

[dalemurphy]

And that beats the hell outta the upper 40's? Only if you're talking winter weather

Yes, statistically a 47% chance at two points is a better value than an 89% chance at 1 point. How is that not clear? Over the course of 100 attempts at those rates

100 2pt tries = 94 points
100 1 pt tries= 89 points

Or looking at in possible game scenarios, if a team scored 4 TDs, it is statistically more likely that they would convert 2 out of 4 2 point conversions than converting 4 out of four one point kicks.

Let us imagine that scenario-
Team one scores 4 tds and religiously goes for 2 every time ( perhaps they even designate more practice time to this situation in order to increase efficiency)... However, they make 2 and dont convert on 2- total score is 28.

Team 2 scores 4 Tds and religiously goes for one every time... There is a greater statistical likelihood that one of those 4 kicks will be missed than the likelihood that team one will fail to convert 3 of their 4 attempts for 2. Assuming one of the four kicks is missed- total score is 27.

 

[JB]

Yes, statistically a 47% chance at two points is a better value than an 89% chance at 1 point. How is that not clear? Over the course of 100 attempts at those rates

100 2pt tries = 94 points
100 1 pt tries= 89 points

yeah ok dude... works in fantasy land maybe

coaches aren't looking at season long maybes, they want to win today

 

[dalemurphy]

Here is a fun thought- team scores a TD in final seconds of 4th quarter to make it a 1 point game. Under new rules, how often will the team elect to go for 2 and the win vs. 1 and the tie? Under game-ending pressure situations, what do you imagine the accuracy of an average NFL placekicker is from 32 yards out? I bet it drops significantly from the 90s!

That situation is ripe for second-guessing the coach. This is going to be fun!