Thank you Sir, glad to be here. I joined because I find the quality of dialogue here superior to, say, YouTube comments which are mostly reactionary and useless and lack interaction. Hope I can contribute meaningfully to the discourse.
While I think your second point is probably true to a large degree, there's history to back up how strictly pocket passers come move from high average or good to elite with time. For example, Tom Brady didn't post a 90 QB rating or higher until his 4th year as a starter, although he was clutch and won a lot of games in the first three years. Slightly different game in the early 2000's but the point is Brady kept limiting his mistakes and getting better until he basically became the GOAT. And it wasn't his arm talent or athletic ability that got him there. It was superior pocket presence, accuracy and ability to diagnose plays and make adjustment. He improved himself materially over time.
Drew Brees is probably a better example. Brees was awful in his first 2 years as starter and although became a Pro Bowler in Year 3, regressed the following season and was replaced in favor of the FOs chosen franchise QB, Phillip Rivers. We know how that story ended in New Orleans so no further commentary needed... The point is, it took Brees 2 full season of pitiful football before he started to 'get it' and learn how to truly face pocket pressure and deliver the football consistently. Brees wasn't 'you either have it or you don't' situation.
So in these condensed timelines, hopefully Mills can improve to the point where he can buy another year. I don't think I overstated him arm talent, because you don't have the best passer rating in ALL OF FOOTBALL for passes over 20 yards last season by luck with a subpar receiving core. Not how it works. Arm talent is high shelf. Just look at the tape... But if he doesn't have enough pocket presence to deliver UNDER PRESSURE, it won't matter for him. That;s the difference between starters and backups. My 2c.
Thanks again Sir
Comparing QBs from different eras is very difficult, if not fruitless, IMO.
It's better to look at the performance of the QBs in the same year/ the same era.
Brees' performance in his second year (and his first year playing full time) is somewhere in the middle of the pack.
He did have Tomlinson, but no other weapons of note.
No receiver at Cooks' caliber.
No TE better than OJ Howard.
The offensive line consisted 2 rookies, a couple of young players who were part -time starters up to that point and a RT at the end of his career.
Together, they missed 20 starts.
The team actually started out 6-2, but couldn't sustain the injuries.
Brees was instrumental in 3 OT wins.
A whole lot more than David Carr could have wished for.
Them Chargers were coming of 1-15 and 5-11 seasons.
They improved to 8-8 with Brees.
The game was different back then; the QBs weren't afforded the calls like they do today.
Also, the defense wasn't exactly stellar either (22nd in points allowed but 30th in yards allowed - this limited the chance for the offense to be on the field.)
And the ST was not at the same level the Texans' unit is currently playing.