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Carson Wentz, My #1 QB going into 2015 college season

PapaL said:
Dont worry about it. Certain people middle the Clowney thread with Shlake Shortles and Rick Smith comments. Thread names don't mean much.
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Well then, if that is the case, all things considered, Blake Bortles is a better QB than any QB on the Texans roster.
 
Texian said:
Let me put it to you this way, when Wentz is the first QB drafted and very possibly at #1 then maybe you will see and understand the amount of plagiarism that's run amok.
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So basically everyone is a copycat and not worth reading unless they don't agree with the consensus and then they are not worth reading.
 
I often disagree with Texian, but I understand his copycat argument.

Somone putting a mock together early in the season might have discounted Wentz and put him down the list of QBs. (not a copycat)
If any professional (and I use the term lightly) put together a mock from scratch starting today, there's no way Wentz is slipping from the top ten.
However, if someone short cuts it by looking at another mock (perhaps one where three or more QBs are ahead of Wentz) he might show up later in the first; hence, copycatting the mocks made with old information.
 
noxiousdog said:
I often disagree with Texian, but I understand his copycat argument.

Somone putting a mock together early in the season might have discounted Wentz and put him down the list of QBs. (not a copycat)
If any professional (and I use the term lightly) put together a mock from scratch starting today, there's no way Wentz is slipping from the top ten.
However, if someone short cuts it by looking at another mock (perhaps one where three or more QBs are ahead of Wentz) he might show up later in the first; hence, copycatting the mocks made with old information.
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Much of the copycatting is recognizable in the comments and analysis of the player if there any. To many read exactly the same. In the case of Wentz, from the get go, media was parroting the comments he's from a small FCS school with less than 20 starts, the NFL is a bridge to far, he's a mid to late day pick. Then a highly respectable evaluator (Brandt, Mayock) comes along and says, Wentz could be a day 1 draft pick. Lo and behold the Mocks begin to change but there is still some in the media that cling to the idea that NDSU is to far from the NFL. The Top Line Professionals don't like Mocks but instead prefer to publish a Top 5 or 10 at each position.

I don't like 32 team mocks. To do them right takes many long hours to do and even then you don't get 20% right. To be perfectly honest, it is much easier and saves a ton of time if you just copy other mock drafts.
 
Texian said:
Much of the copycatting is recognizable in the comments and analysis of the player if there any. To many read exactly the same. In the case of Wentz, from the get go, media was parroting the comments he's from a small FCS school with less than 20 starts, the NFL is a bridge to far, he's a mid to late day pick. Then a highly respectable evaluator (Brandt, Mayock) comes along and says, Wentz could be a day 1 draft pick. Lo and behold the Mocks begin to change but there is still some in the media that cling to the idea that NDSU is to far from the NFL. The Top Line Professionals don't like Mocks but instead prefer to publish a Top 5 or 10 at each position.

I don't like 32 team mocks. To do them right takes many long hours to do and even then you don't get 20% right. To be perfectly honest, it is much easier and saves a ton of time if you just copy other mock drafts.
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I agree. Also, its like cheating when you do a solo mock draft. The best thing to do is a 2 or 3 person mock. Then you have opposite thoughts when selecting players.
 
Texian said:
Jerry Jones: Cowboys won't draft QB with No. 4 overall pick

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...-draft-qb-with-no-4-overall-pick?sf21883445=1

(Reader beware, be careful what you believe, it's the Draft Lying Season.)
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I'd bet on it. What is ole Jerry now, 'bout 75 ? His days are numbered for another SB appearance especially after his team ended up being the worst team in the worst division in its conference last year. He needs a stud "playmaker" to give his team with Romas return the best chance to get into the POs, and drafting a young QB that needs a few years od grooming & preparation would not fit his scenario of a rapid recovery and return to relevance in the NFC race.
 
So I've got some free time on my hands, it's the offseason, & I've been doing some extra deep digging. It seems that there is this one guy out there who isn't sold on Carson Wentz, but I got to thinking.

If he's not the first QB taken in most mocks, he's the second. But, what if he takes a Teddy Bridgewater type dive? I mean, he's there at 22.

Of course, it's a no brainer for some of you. However, the last two times this happened to us, it didn't work out too well. Obviously there was something everyone else knew about Louis Nix & Jalen Strong, that we didn't. Those two picks makes me think it's possible that the Texans didn't put in the work. Maybe they thought Nix & Strong would be gone before they had a shot at them...

So.... you still feel good about Wentz after he makes it to 22? Even with all the QB needy teams ahead of us?
 
Yes.

You can think about Nix or Strong, and that's your prerogative, I'll think about Marino and Rodgers.

I'm gonna trust what I've seen of his play and how he conducts himself.
 
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Mollywhopper said:
Yes.

You can think about Nix or Strong, and that's your prerogative, I'll think about Marino and Rodgers.

I'm gonna trust what I've seen of his play and how he conducts himself.
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^^^^ this

If Marino can fall to 27 and be the fifth quarterback taken, and Rodgers fall to 24 and Bridgewater falls to 32 and gets drafted after Johnny Manziel just goes to show that even the best of talent evaluators make mistakes
 
thunderkyss said:
So I've got some free time on my hands, it's the offseason, & I've been doing some extra deep digging. It seems that there is this one guy out there who isn't sold on Carson Wentz, but I got to thinking.

If he's not the first QB taken in most mocks, he's the second. But, what if he takes a Teddy Bridgewater type dive? I mean, he's there at 22.

Of course, it's a no brainer for some of you. However, the last two times this happened to us, it didn't work out too well. Obviously there was something everyone else knew about Louis Nix & Jalen Strong, that we didn't. Those two picks makes me think it's possible that the Texans didn't put in the work. Maybe they thought Nix & Strong would be gone before they had a shot at them...

So.... you still feel good about Wentz after he makes it to 22? Even with all the QB needy teams ahead of us?
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I really dont feel good about any picks Rick Smith makes. I hope for the best though, and so far Smith's best isn't good enough.
 
thunderkyss said:
So I've got some free time on my hands, it's the offseason, & I've been doing some extra deep digging. It seems that there is this one guy out there who isn't sold on Carson Wentz, but I got to thinking.

If he's not the first QB taken in most mocks, he's the second. But, what if he takes a Teddy Bridgewater type dive? I mean, he's there at 22.

Of course, it's a no brainer for some of you. However, the last two times this happened to us, it didn't work out too well. Obviously there was something everyone else knew about Louis Nix & Jalen Strong, that we didn't. Those two picks makes me think it's possible that the Texans didn't put in the work. Maybe they thought Nix & Strong would be gone before they had a shot at them...

So.... you still feel good about Wentz after he makes it to 22? Even with all the QB needy teams ahead of us?
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The Houston Texans applied the Rick Smith, Sam Montgomery player evaluation method on Nix and Strong.
 
Texian said:
The Houston Texans applied the Rick Smith, Sam Montgomery player evaluation method on Nix and Strong.
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& that's what I'm saying. Looking at him now, & how most of us feel, there's no reason he should slide to 22, right? Would you think you (Rick Smith) missed something like you did on Nix & Strong, or are you going to think everyone else did, like they did on Bridgewater.
 
thunderkyss said:
& that's what I'm saying. Looking at him now, & how most of us feel, there's no reason he should slide to 22, right? Would you think you (Rick Smith) missed something like you did on Nix & Strong, or are you going to think everyone else did, like they did on Bridgewater.
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What did I miss on Nix and Strong? I thought my voice was loud and clear on both. I was quite adamant that there were many more reasons NOT to draft Nix, Strong and Montgomery than the few reasons to.
 
Texian said:
What did I miss on Nix and Strong? I thought my voice was loud and clear on both. I was quite adamant that there were many more reasons NOT to draft Nix, Strong and Montgomery than the few reasons to.
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Not you you. Rick Smith you.
 
Mollywhopper said:
How are you asking anyone here to be in Rick Smith's head? It's a bizarre exercise that gets to no real conclusion on what should actually happen.

Are you just wanting people to second guess Wentz?
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Maybe he's asking if Rick Smith or OB is now gun shy, or if they should now be gun shy?
 
JB said:
Maybe he's asking if Rick Smith or OB is now gun shy, or if they should now be gun shy?
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I suppose. Still not sure the conclusion of the what if. Isn't it still ultimately should or shouldn't you trust the eval and take the prospect or not?

I apologize if I'm coming off ugly just out of hand to someone's idea. This should be a place for ideas of course. I guess I'm just seeing it as no matter if Smith has a self-written note in his pocket saying "no matter what take ______" or if he's second guessing himself all the way through writing the draft card it still comes down to is the homework done, are you being honest with the eval, what's best for the team, and then comes the choice.

But perhaps I'm being harsh on the hypothetical and should just sit back and read.
 
Mollywhopper said:
How are you asking anyone here to be in Rick Smith's head? It's a bizarre exercise that gets to no real conclusion on what should actually happen.

Are you just wanting people to second guess Wentz?
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Actually, I was expecting to someone to say they were pretty thorough & feel very good about Wentz, regardless what the other teams did. Or since we are in the QB market & most of us believe a trade up is already on the table, I'd expect Smith to be much more thorough on the QBs than he was on either Nix or Strong.
 
thunderkyss said:
Actually, I was expecting to someone to say they were pretty thorough & feel very good about Wentz, regardless what the other teams did. Or since we are in the QB market & most of us believe a trade up is already on the table, I'd expect Smith to be much more thorough on the QBs than he was on either Nix or Strong.
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Thought I did say the first part of that.
 
Texian said:
Jon Gruden says Carson Wentz is the most NFL-ready QB he's seen in years
http://ftw.usatoday.com/2016/03/jon...tz-is-the-most-nfl-ready-qb-hes-seen-in-years
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Didja notice the major caveat in the last paragraph?
Gruden knows more about football than I ever will, but he has shown a propensity for falling in love with prospects who say the right things. Before the 2014 NFL Draft, he compared Johnny Manziel to hall of famer Steve Young. So maybe he’s not the most reliable judge of quarterbacks.
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I like the Osweiler move. If we could have manufactured a costly move to Wentz I would have like that more.

Thing is, neither of these have to be terrible ideas just because one came to fruition.
 
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If Carson Wentz drops to pick #22, do we still select him just to use as trade bait later on? I'm not talking about trading down right then and there, like most teams do, but rather drafting him ourselves and keeping him around to learn O'Brien's system for a year or two.

Would it not hurt us to have two good young quarterbacks on the roster for depth purposes? And then when somebody comes in with a "blow me away" type of trade offer (two firsts, a first and second) whatever it may be, then we can entertain those trade ideas.

If we were to trade down with pick #22 on draft night, the best we can do is an early second (or late first) along with an added third or fourth I'd imagine.

I'm kind of hoping that Carson Wentz or Connor Cook, either one, can slip down to pick #22 just so we can be in this intriguing position.

Obviously having two franchise quarterbacks means you can't keep both of them around forever. Like the San Diego Chargers once had with Drew Brees and Phillip Rivers, but certainly you can keep both if one is under a scaled rookie contract. Especially when we have around $10 million in current cap space.

It's a nice problem to have (two good quarterbacks), especially for a team that has had so many quarterback issues over the years. Also when you have two good young quarterbacks, if the guy you originally thought was your franchise guy but struggles, you can switch him out with the other guy two or three years down the road.

You have better odds of having a franchise quarterback, IMO. And if both guys end up being franchise quarterbacks, then it's apples and oranges. Like the Chargers once had with Brees and Rivers. What made their decision easier was that Brees had major surgery on his shoulder at the time. They decided to move ahead with Rivers and the Saints ended up getting Brees. All Rivers did was lead the Chargers to 14-2 his first season as a full-time starter (after sitting and learning). And of course Brees would go on to shatter some passing records and win a Super Bowl with the Saints a few years later.

While we have other needs, I don't think it hurts to invest an extra resource (first-round pick) on a young quarterback you can have as a quality backup over the next two, three, four years. In case something crazy happens to Brock Osweiler. While I do think Osweiler is going to be elite, I don't think it's crazy to have two elite quarterbacks (one waiting in the wings). You don't lose anything draft value wise because you can trade that drafted guy later on for better value than what you spent on him (#22 overall pick).

I'm a little nervous that we're one Brock Osweiler injury away in 2016 from potentially playing Brian Hoyer? Especially if Tom Savage goes on IR again. I have a bad feeling Savage will get hurt in the preseason. We could be in the same situation as last year unless we draft one of those appealing quarterbacks, whoever drops, at pick #22.
 
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ObsiWan said:
Didja notice the major caveat in the last paragraph?
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Yes I read the article. Putting things in perspective, at the time Gruden didn't know what we now know about Manziel. If you put aside all the drinking, hell raising and immaturity and go off pure athletic abilities and college performances (essentially what Gruden did) you could say there are several similarities. Your Sports Writer:

Steven Ruiz
Steven Ruiz is a writer at For The Win and doesn't understand the point of making the bed every morning.
 
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JB said:
Weren't you really pumped about Savage being our franchise QB? Wouldn't that give us 3 in your opinion?
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I don't believe so. I never really liked Savage to be honest with you. I may have said some good things about him on draft night. As a Texan, he hasn't given me any reason to be excited. I tend to knock him more than I do praise him. Even though, by all accounts, he's a hard worker. If only he could stay healthy.

I liked Ryan Fitzpatrick more than Tom Savage.
Heck, I liked Brandon Weeden more than Tom Savage as well.

I would have been okay playing T.J. Yates or Case Keenum, had we kept either one of them around for the long haul, over Savage as well. Although Yates and Keenum both came back (briefly). And Yates was hurt last year just like Savage.

In order for Tom Savage to impress me he has to do two things,

1. Stay healthy
2. Play well

And right now, I would consider both a long shot...
1. is the tough one. If he can't do that then 2. is impossible.
 
infantrycak said:
Conner Cook being available at #22 is not slipping. Taking him there would be a giant reach.
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Remember when everyone got mad that we took JJ Watt at #11 saying that we could have had him at #17 if we traded down? I don't really care for the term "Reach" If he's the guy you want, and you know he can contribute, no matter what round, just go get your guy. (Not talking about Cook, just talking about any player, in general.)
 
AngryNateFTW said:
Remember when everyone got mad that we took JJ Watt at #11 saying that we could have had him at #17 if we traded down? I don't really care for the term "Reach" If he's the guy you want, and you know he can contribute, no matter what round, just go get your guy. (Not talking about Cook, just talking about any player, in general.)
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You're preaching to the choir. Arguing about a few spots is silly to me. But a couple rounds is different.
 
infantrycak said:
You're preaching to the choir. Arguing about a few spots is silly to me. But a couple rounds is different.
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Even then, I don't believe in the concept of "reach".

A "reach" is simply a matter of the Pundits and Experts who were supposed to be gauging the stock of various players to try to figure out where they'd be drafted being fooled by the smokescreens that the teams put up to keep people from understanding how certain players were actually rated. Just because the experts expect a guy to go in the fourth round but he goes in the first, that doesn't mean he was a reach. The experts failed to gauge 1 team's interest in the player and they may well have failed to gauge multiple teams' interest in him. You can't say, "Oh, this guy wasn't supposed to go until the 4th round, so this was a reach" because the next team up might have been going to draft the same guy.

Now, after a few years, if someone was drafted high and they didn't pan out and the experts had a low rating on the guy, that's a totally different thing. But most people/experts don't take that long a view, it's all about right this second, and the experts start to think that their prognostications are reality, when in fact, they're being fed a lot of erroneous data by the scouts and teams they're talking to.
 
Rand Getlin ‏@Rand_Getlin 5m5 minutes ago


Carson Wentz and Jared Goff just as good as Mariota and Winston? Our @MikeMayock thinks they might be better.

CeHDVNLUAAElViM.jpg
 
Bulls on Parade said:
If Carson Wentz drops to pick #22, do we still select him just to use as trade bait later on? I'm not talking about trading down right then and there, like most teams do, but rather drafting him ourselves and keeping him around to learn O'Brien's system for a year or two.

Would it not hurt us to have two good young quarterbacks on the roster for depth purposes? And then when somebody comes in with a "blow me away" type of trade offer (two firsts, a first and second) whatever it may be, then we can entertain those trade ideas.

If we were to trade down with pick #22 on draft night, the best we can do is an early second (or late first) along with an added third or fourth I'd imagine.

I'm kind of hoping that Carson Wentz or Connor Cook, either one, can slip down to pick #22 just so we can be in this intriguing position.

Obviously having two franchise quarterbacks means you can't keep both of them around forever. Like the San Diego Chargers once had with Drew Brees and Phillip Rivers, but certainly you can keep both if one is under a scaled rookie contract. Especially when we have around $10 million in current cap space.

It's a nice problem to have (two good quarterbacks), especially for a team that has had so many quarterback issues over the years. Also when you have two good young quarterbacks, if the guy you originally thought was your franchise guy but struggles, you can switch him out with the other guy two or three years down the road.

You have better odds of having a franchise quarterback, IMO. And if both guys end up being franchise quarterbacks, then it's apples and oranges. Like the Chargers once had with Brees and Rivers. What made their decision easier was that Brees had major surgery on his shoulder at the time. They decided to move ahead with Rivers and the Saints ended up getting Brees. All Rivers did was lead the Chargers to 14-2 his first season as a full-time starter (after sitting and learning). And of course Brees would go on to shatter some passing records and win a Super Bowl with the Saints a few years later.

While we have other needs, I don't think it hurts to invest an extra resource (first-round pick) on a young quarterback you can have as a quality backup over the next two, three, four years. In case something crazy happens to Brock Osweiler. While I do think Osweiler is going to be elite, I don't think it's crazy to have two elite quarterbacks (one waiting in the wings). You don't lose anything draft value wise because you can trade that drafted guy later on for better value than what you spent on him (#22 overall pick).

I'm a little nervous that we're one Brock Osweiler injury away in 2016 from potentially playing Brian Hoyer? Especially if Tom Savage goes on IR again. I have a bad feeling Savage will get hurt in the preseason. We could be in the same situation as last year unless we draft one of those appealing quarterbacks, whoever drops, at pick #22.
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IMO you cant draft a QB rd 1 this year anymore and we wont. Brock came here in part because he knew he was being looked at by us as a franchise QB. Drafting a QB in RD 1 will have him looking over his shoulder, the second he struggles he will hear our awesome fans start chanting for the QB we drafted in rd 1. It wouldnt be smart on our part. I think if Savage shows well this off season we will get someone to trade for Hoyer, if not then they keep Hoyer as QB 2
 
Texian said:
Jon Gruden says Carson Wentz is the most NFL-ready QB he's seen in years
http://ftw.usatoday.com/2016/03/jon...tz-is-the-most-nfl-ready-qb-hes-seen-in-years
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no offense but I trust what Gruden says about QBs, to the media at least, about as much as I trust that Mcdonald's sells real meat. He gets excited over every QB he talks to in case you've never seen QB camp.

Also you said in another post we didnt know about Manziel then what we do now. Were you living under a rock, or in denial? It was well documented about Manziel's partying nature, his immaturity, even his father before the draft was worried about him. The red flags were there some just choose to ignore them, because of the excitement that was Manziel.
 
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