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Nick Caserio - New GM

76Texan said:
But that wasn't the case.

1. There were at least one team that had spent much less than that (for the rest of the roster) to win a SB.
I had pulled up those numbers with links to prove it in one of my posts somewhere on the forum.
Click to expand...
I thought that was a good point. From that we can infer that it's possible, even though it hadn't been done.
 
The Tom Brady Factor works more than one way.
Go back to that spending chart for the SB vs. the Falcons.
Read carefully and you will see the NFL salary cap, the spending of each team on offense and defense, on ST, the dead money, and most importantly the reserve money that the Pats can carry over to the next year (more than $14M).
That money can go toward paying Tom Brady more up front if the Pats had chosen to do so.
They did not need the extra money to field a SB winning team.
 
76Texan said:
The third point I've been trying to make can be better understood by looking at the current 11 top paid QB for 2021 here:

2021 Quarterback Contracts and Salaries | Over The Cap

Ranking the top NFL 2021 Quarterback contracts and salaries in the NFL
overthecap.com

The cutoff is Mahomes.
All these QBs will occupy more than 13.2% of the 2021 salary cap figure set at 182.5M at the moment.

The other 21 is called "the field".

Read post 1266 by FireBob and post 1280 by Corrosion to have a better idea of things.

My contention was that up until this year, the number of QBs with cap space over 13.2% each year is so small such that the odds are against them.
That changes dramatically at the moment.
So FireBob ran a mathematical model that predicts the odds of winning the SB of these top 11 QBs vs. the field is higher than 60%.

That odd used to overwhelmingly tilted toward the field; and I had proposed that as one of the reasons things happened the way it did.
Click to expand...


Thoughts on a couple of things:


1. Is the average starting qb salary increasing faster (by percentage) than the average nfl minimum? If that's the case as I assume it is, wouldn't yearly cap increases naturally make it easier for qbs to eat up more cap room then they used to? If the minimum salary isn't increasing at the same rate as team salary cap that would naturally allow a cushion...right?

2. This is only a snap shot in time. A case study over something like 2-3 years might have merit. Let's say a qb at 13.whatever% wins the sb. That's great but what does it do to the team over time? I think it creates a smaller window for team success. After that window of opportunity I'd suspect teams with a highly paid qb are more likely to nose dive off a competitive cliff then those with an average qb salary. But I'm just guessing.

3. I think its fair here not to argue solely on outliers like Brady and Mahomes - Just as it's fair not expecting dilfer and the all world 2000 ravens defense to happen. If that "one off" is the basis for any argument, its probably flawed.

I know that doesn't all fit completely into the previous conversations ,but it feels relevant nonetheless. I have no dog in the fight so I'm not here to argue. I'm just promoting the discussion as it could and SHOULD be a fun one.
 
Also note that the Falcons themselves still have more than $15M to carry over to the next year even after paying Matt Ryan a bunch of money.
 
powda said:
Thoughts on a couple of things:


1. Is the average starting qb salary increasing faster (by percentage) than the average nfl minimum? If that's the case as I assume it is, wouldn't yearly cap increases naturally make it easier for qbs to eat up more cap room then they used to? If the minimum salary isn't increasing at the same rate as team salary cap that would naturally allow a cushion...right?

2. This is only a snap shot in time. A case study over something like 2-3 years might have merit. Let's say a qb at 13.whatever% wins the sb. That's great but what does it do to the team over time? I think it creates a smaller window for team success. After that window of opportunity I'd suspect teams with a highly paid qb are more likely to nose dive off a competitive cliff then those with an average qb salary. But I'm just guessing.

3. I think its fair here not to argue solely on outliers like Brady and Mahomes - Just as it's fair not expecting dilfer and the all world 2000 ravens defense to happen. If that "one off" is the basis for any argument, its probably flawed.

I know that doesn't all fit completely into the previous conversations ,but it feels relevant nonetheless. I have no dog in the fight so I'm not here to argue. I'm just promoting the discussion as it could and SHOULD be a fun one.
Click to expand...
1. Interesting. Need lots of research I think.

2. This goes back to Brady again. Besides taking less than what an elite QB ordinarily make, the Pats kept restructuring him to push the money back.
Now that he left, the Pats incurred some $13.5M in dead money that they simply takes the lump and write it off in one bad year.
The Chiefs could apply this with Mahomes for awhile longer and try to win as many SBs as they can while Mahomes' cap figure is still low enough.

3. They are just a part of it all.
 
76Texan said:
3. They are just a part of it all.
Click to expand...


It happens but no team can build around accidentally drafting Brady 2 years from now. It don't subscribe to building a team on the off chance we have history's best qb or best defense or best whatever.

To put it in other terms, it could happen. Probably wont.
 
Another instance is the year Mahomes won the SB.
Sure, his cap space was less than $4.5M, but the Chiefs had a lot of room to spare.
They were able to roll over some cap space from 2018, so even though the cap was set at 188.2M , they actually had $190.15M to spend.

www.cbssports.com

Agent's Take: The definitive Super Bowl 2020 tale of the tape for 49ers vs. Chiefs

The two Super Bowl teams sit on opposite sides of the spectrum when you look at adjusted salary caps
www.cbssports.com www.cbssports.com

They only spent $166.5M of it though.

Premium Sign In | Spotrac.com

Sign in to your Spotrac Premium account to gain access to complete info, unique tools, and more!
www.spotrac.com www.spotrac.com

So they are left with a whopping $23.5M

For simplicity, just add that to Mahomes' number and it comes out to nearly $28M, which would be 14.88%
 
76Texan said:
Corrosion used the 13.2% as the cut off point (before Brady won the SB).
Click to expand...

You are putting words in my mouth and You are WRONG.

I did NOT state that 13.2% was the cut off point. Not once , not ever.


I simply stated that it was the highest figure a QB earned up to that point.

It was a historical fact.


NOT MY OPINION.
 
Corrosion said:
You are putting words in my mouth and You are WRONG.

I did NOT state that 13.2% was the cut off point. Not once , not ever.


I simply stated that it was the highest figure a QB earned up to that point.

It was a historical fact.


NOT MY OPINION.
Click to expand...
I did not say it was your opinion.
I said you use that figure (fact).
 
steelbtexan said:
Difference is DW4's behavior has me looking pretty good right now and RS cant get another GM job.
Click to expand...

When it comes to DW4, based on your post history, everyone knows you didn't want him drafted, you were running a bad game tracker, you think he drifted right too often and you thought he's an average QB who inflated his stats by playing on a bad team. Because of the way he has handled this dispute with Cal and Easterby, you have change your stance by calling him a good, but not elite QB and using the dispute to bash his character. Before this dispute, your issues with Watson was his on-field performance, processing speed, pre/post snap decisions, blitz pickups, intelligence and nothing about his behavior. So, exactly what in your pre December 2020 criticism have you looking good right now? If you raised red flags about his behavior or character before December 2020, post the link and I will apologize.

As far as Ricky. I bet the odds of a GM getting to lead two different teams is less than 13.2%. I know you understand the significance of that number. Now, consider that number and then tell me, in NFL history, how many of these GMs who got a second job as a GM were minorities. Again, I'm not saying RS was a great GM. But to be fair, claiming the man cannot get a job without considering the history of GM rehires isn't based on context or facts.

NFL general managers rarely get the second chances they deserve | Sporting News
 
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Earl34 said:
When it comes to DW4, based on your post history, everyone knows you didn't want him drafted, you were running a bad game tracker, you think he drifted right too often and you thought he's an average QB who inflated his stats by playing on a bad team. Because of the way he has handled this dispute with Cal and Easterby, you have change your stance by calling him a good, but not elite QB and using the dispute to bash his character. Before this dispute, your issues with Watson was his on-field performance, processing speed, pre/post snap decisions, blitz pickups, intelligence and nothing about his behavior. So, exactly what in your pre December 2020 criticism have you looking good right now? If you raised red flags about his behavior or character before December 2020, post the link and I will apologize.

As far as Ricky. I bet the odds of a GM getting to lead two different teams is less than 13.2%. I know you understand the significance of that number. Now, consider that number and then tell me, in NFL history, how many of these GMs who got a second job as a GM were minorities. Again, I'm not saying RS was a great GM. But to be fair, claiming the man cannot get a job without considering the history of GM rehires isn't based on context or facts.

NFL general managers rarely get the second chances they deserve | Sporting News
Click to expand...

I still feel the same way about DW4 he's slightly above avg and is a stat king. The reason I didn't bring up his character has much to do with the times we live in. DW4's a much different guy (Certainly not better character wise) than when he was drafted. Fact is he got paid and has become what he is. There were signs beforehand and I guess shipping off Hopkins didn't rectify the issues.

Bil Polian/John Dorsey/Bruce Allen/Scott McCloughan etc.... say hi.
 
maverick512000 said:
I honest to God can’t figure out why people are arguing about this. When this first came up I thought it was just to defend Watson and his contract but we have moved past this now to not only trying to argue established facts but arguing against the math we learned in first grade.

If there are 6 apples in the basket and Kenny takes 2 apples, Billy takes 1 and Johnny takes 3 apples how many apples will be left for Benny?
Click to expand...

None for second round pick Benny . Benny never recovered from his injured knee. Was going to get an apple and a roadmap but all the apples were gone. Lot of unfulfilled potential.
Not too sure why Kenny took 2 apples, he preferred beer and a jukebox. Billy? OBrien? Worth the apple to be rid of him. Johnny McClain loves buffet tables, couldn't restrain the impulse, took all the apples that were left.
Hope this clears things up. Finally got to use the calculus I learned in high school.:hurrah:

Hope Caserio is keeping up.

:coffee:
 
steelbtexan said:
I still feel the same way about DW4 he's slightly above avg and is a stat king. The reason I didn't bring up his character has much to do with the times we live in. DW4's a much different guy (Certainly not better character wise) than when he was drafted. Fact is he got paid and has become what he is. There were signs beforehand and I guess shipping off Hopkins didn't rectify the issues.

Bil Polian/John Dorsey/Bruce Allen/Scott McCloughan etc.... say hi.
Click to expand...
I'm not going to waste time on how you know DW4 is a different guy without you spending any time with him or having any interaction or first hand knowledge. I'm not going down that speculative rabbit hole. So, we're done with that conversation.

Instead I will focus on the GMs. So, what percentage is that who got rehired? 13.2%, 10%, 5%, 2%? Polian, Dorsey and Allen had deep NFL ties that goes back to the 1980s. Even McCloughan's dad was a long time scout with the Raiders. Notice a trend with the selected few that were even rehired? Hell, McCloughan has spent a grand total of 2 years as GM of two different teams and due to his connections, I would not be surprise if he gets another shot.

So again, you have based a narrative on outliers. What is the percentage of GMs who have been rehired in the past 25 years? How many were minorities? You are on record proclaiming the incompetence of Rick Smith. So, what makes you think he is special enough or has the connections needed to be rehired and probably be the first minority to be rehired for a GM job in NFL history?

Do I need to call our local mathematicians (@76Texan and @FireBOB) to request the percentage of GMs rehires over the past 25 years or the percentage of minority GM rehires in NFL history?
 
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leebigeztx said:
In other news, is Caserio really the gm or is it Esterbunny?
Click to expand...

Nobody knows at this point. John McClain (fwiw) has indicated that Easterby has an "influential role" in the organization and is in the ear of Caserio.

How much weight Jack's opinions carry is anyone's guess. But, between Cal's own words and the apparent tight friendship of Caserio & Easterby, we're in this for the long haul.

I don't do predictions much, but my gut tells me this doesn't end well as long as Easterby is anywhere near the center of power in this franchise. It's hard to be optimistic about the team's future with that shyster embedded into the boardroom. JMO
 
Earl34 said:
I'm not going to waste time on how you know DW4 is a different guy without you spending any time with him or having any interaction or first hand knowledge. I'm not going down that speculative rabbit hole. So, we're done with that conversation.

Instead I will focus on the GMs. So, what percentage is that who got rehired? 13.2%, 10%, 5%, 2%? Polian, Dorsey and Allen had deep NFL ties that goes back to the 1980s. Even McCloughan's dad was a long time scout with the Raiders. Notice a trend with the selected few that were even rehired? Hell, McCloughan has spent a grand total of 2 years as GM of two different teams and due to his connections, I would not be surprise if he gets another shot.

So again, you have based a narrative on outliers. What is the percentage of GMs who have been rehired in the past 25 years? How many were minorities? You are on record proclaiming the incompetence of Rick Smith. So, what makes you think he is special enough or has the connections needed to be rehired and probably be the first minority to be rehired for a GM job in NFL history?

Do I need to call our local mathematicians (@76Texan and @FireBOB) to request the percentage of GMs rehires over the past 25 years or the percentage of minority GM rehires in NFL history?
Click to expand...
It seems to be a little higher than 13.2%.
www.sportingnews.com

NFL general managers rarely get the second chances they deserve | Sporting News

www.sportingnews.com www.sportingnews.com
 
Earl34 said:
I'm not going to waste time on how you know DW4 is a different guy without you spending any time with him or having any interaction or first hand knowledge. I'm not going down that speculative rabbit hole. So, we're done with that conversation.

Instead I will focus on the GMs. So, what percentage is that who got rehired? 13.2%, 10%, 5%, 2%? Polian, Dorsey and Allen had deep NFL ties that goes back to the 1980s. Even McCloughan's dad was a long time scout with the Raiders. Notice a trend with the selected few that were even rehired? Hell, McCloughan has spent a grand total of 2 years as GM of two different teams and due to his connections, I would not be surprise if he gets another shot.

So again, you have based a narrative on outliers. What is the percentage of GMs who have been rehired in the past 25 years? How many were minorities? You are on record proclaiming the incompetence of Rick Smith. So, what makes you think he is special enough or has the connections needed to be rehired and probably be the first minority to be rehired for a GM job in NFL history?

Do I need to call our local mathematicians (@76Texan and @FireBOB) to request the percentage of GMs rehires over the past 25 years or the percentage of minority GM rehires in NFL history?
Click to expand...

Add Casserly in that list.

I dont know the %, what I do know is RS cant get another GM job.
 
Earl34 said:
I'm not going to waste time on how you know DW4 is a different guy without you spending any time with him or having any interaction or first hand knowledge. I'm not going down that speculative rabbit hole. So, we're done with that conversation.

Instead I will focus on the GMs. So, what percentage is that who got rehired? 13.2%, 10%, 5%, 2%? Polian, Dorsey and Allen had deep NFL ties that goes back to the 1980s. Even McCloughan's dad was a long time scout with the Raiders. Notice a trend with the selected few that were even rehired? Hell, McCloughan has spent a grand total of 2 years as GM of two different teams and due to his connections, I would not be surprise if he gets another shot.

So again, you have based a narrative on outliers. What is the percentage of GMs who have been rehired in the past 25 years? How many were minorities? You are on record proclaiming the incompetence of Rick Smith. So, what makes you think he is special enough or has the connections needed to be rehired and probably be the first minority to be rehired for a GM job in NFL history?

Do I need to call our local mathematicians (@76Texan and @FireBOB) to request the percentage of GMs rehires over the past 25 years or the percentage of minority GM rehires in NFL history?
Click to expand...

Add Casserly/McKay in that list. So I just listed like 4 or 5 off of the top of my head.

I dont know the %, what I do know is RS cant get another GM job.

Continue on and you can believe what you want about DW4, but he wasn't hanging out with Porn Stars and IG models when he joined the Texans. The fame has gone to his head. Just like it did with Romo.
 
Double Barrel said:
31 other owners were never going to hire Casserly as GM.

He was the proverbial "kick me" sign on the back of noob owner Bob McNair, as he was allegedly "highly recommended" by many owners to McNair. Meanwhile, they were all :heh: when Bob turned his back.
Click to expand...

How do you explain Miami offering him the job a few years back?
 
Double Barrel said:
I don't do predictions much, but my gut tells me this doesn't end well as long as Easterby is anywhere near the center of power in this franchise. It's hard to be optimistic about the team's future with that shyster embedded into the boardroom. JMO
Click to expand...
I really didn't care for the way decision were made before were made before Easterby got here. So I'm not sold on his influence being as detrimental as some believe.

As long as Kyle goes back to playing video games, I think we'll be alright.
 
JB said:
How do you explain Miami offering him the job a few years back?
Click to expand...

This is the first time that I've ever heard this. What happened? Why didn't they hire him? I'd like to read more about it, tbh.

thunderkyss said:
I really didn't care for the way decision were made before were made before Easterby got here. So I'm not sold on his influence being as detrimental as some believe.

As long as Kyle goes back to playing video games, I think we'll be alright.
Click to expand...

Philosopher George Santayana once said, "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."

It's cool you're not sold on Easterby's potential influence. Andre Johnson disagrees with you.

There's enough smoke there to form an opinion. I don't claim to know the details, but it seems illogical that so many different people decided to make up stuff about Jack Easterby. And after seeing his terrible preaching / stand-up act, the only thing that comes to my mind is charlatan. Any power that guy has on Kirby is too much power, IMO.
 
Double Barrel said:
This is the first time that I've ever heard this. What happened? Why didn't they hire him? I'd like to read more about it, tbh.



Philosopher George Santayana once said, "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."

It's cool you're not sold on Easterby's potential influence. Andre Johnson disagrees with you.

There's enough smoke there to form an opinion. I don't claim to know the details, but it seems illogical that so many different people decided to make up stuff about Jack Easterby. And after seeing his terrible preaching / stand-up act, the only thing that comes to my mind is charlatan. Any power that guy has on Kirby is too much power, IMO.
Click to expand...
I didn't say anything about anyone making things up.

I said the Texans were pretty crappy decision makers before Easterby. Cal needs to go back to playing video games.
 
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